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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2021 6:51:14 GMT -5
I mean, if you want a college guy, here you go. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vaughn000andThe jump to the majors is harder than it's ever been. Meanwhile (and this is a separate point), I honestly have no idea what to make of Worcester numbers this year. Yes, they were in the road this week, but they got 16 HR in 6 games against Syracuse's league-worst pitching staff. I mean, they can only hit against the pitcher put on the mound in front of them, but it's tough to make much of power numbers when EVERYONE is going deep.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Jun 14, 2021 11:49:04 GMT -5
The performance that Franchy is putting on should be giving pause to people that are wanting to immediately promote Duran based on his numbers. I mean, I know there are a lot of variables that mean that sometimes there is a guy that is worse at hitting AAA pitching than a guy who is better than him at hitting MLB pitching, but Franchy and Duran are seeing the same pitching in the same ball parks, so there is probably at least a fair amount of information that we can draw from a direct comparison of the two.
I mean, maybe it is just that Franchy is that much better at crushing bad pitches, which he is more likely to see in AAA, but I'd want considerably more information than I've seen to explain why Duran is likely to succeed (and I don't think you promote him on a "throw something against the wall" whim) when Cordero clearly wasn't succeeding. I don't know if you can get that information without watching a lot of live games though.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 14, 2021 16:31:17 GMT -5
This is a dumb question but is there a possibility Duran doesn’t come up this season so they can stretch his service time another year?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 14, 2021 16:42:27 GMT -5
This is a dumb question but is there a possibility Duran doesn’t come up this season so they can stretch his service time another year? I wouldn't want to trade 24 year old Duran while the team could use a lefty OF and is in contention, for 30 year old Duran in unknown circumstances.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2021 7:36:25 GMT -5
That’s right—the 130 days is the earliest cutoff date, but it’s typically later and falls sometime in early June. Exact date varies every year and depends on when players that year get called up. Teams usually wait until mid/late June just to be safe. Here are a few articles explaining things. www.milb.com/news/gcs-124357946library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/Not quite. Over the last dozen years, the Super Two date has varied from 115 days to 146 with about half over 130. Go look it up by year. Now we have come full circle. That is exactly why teams are conservative when bringing up players since they can't know the date three years from now which was my point in the first place.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 18, 2021 22:09:50 GMT -5
Duran hit an opposite field home run for the first time I can recall this season / since he changed his swing.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 18, 2021 23:51:58 GMT -5
Duran hit an opposite field home run for the first time I can recall this season / since he changed his swing. Not to worry. We have Kikay and Marwin and Danny. Besides, Duran is only hitting in the .270s. Even Franchy is doing better than that. But he may yet get promoted by mid-July because we don’t want to take a chance that the super two cut off date may be only 75 days this year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2021 0:07:28 GMT -5
Duran is packing a lot of his production into his biggest games. He has 11 games without a hit, and now has four with three or more. 35 of his 74 total bases have come in his five best games - he's slugging 1.458 in those, .410 the rest of the time. For comparison's sake, Casas and Jimenez both have eight games without a hit. I don't know that it's anything meaningful. It's possible that it's small sample noise, it's possible he's inflating his numbers beating up on the worst of Triple-A pitching, and it's possible he's just one of those guys who isn't as consistent on a game to game basis but will dominate a game frequently enough that everyone's fine with it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2021 10:33:51 GMT -5
Duran is packing a lot of his production into his biggest games. He has 11 games without a hit, and now has four with three or more. 35 of his 74 total bases have come in his five best games - he's slugging 1.458 in those, .410 the rest of the time. For comparison's sake, Casas and Jimenez both have eight games without a hit. I don't know that it's anything meaningful. It's possible that it's small sample noise, it's possible he's inflating his numbers beating up on the worst of Triple-A pitching, and it's possible he's just one of those guys who isn't as consistent on a game to game basis but will dominate a game frequently enough that everyone's fine with it. Huh. Whether or not it means anything, it is kind of interesting: Games with X number of hits: 0: 11 1: 7 2: 6 3: 3 4: 0 5: 1 So 2+ in 10 games, more games than those in which he only has 1. Games reaching base X number of times: 0: 6 1: 6 2: 9 3: 3 4: 2 5: 2 What a weird distribution. Games with X extra-base hits: 0: 13 1: 13 2: 1 3: 1 I think this leads to the most interesting stat: Duran has hits in 17 games. He has extra-base hits in all but two of them.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 19, 2021 10:54:04 GMT -5
Duran is packing a lot of his production into his biggest games. He has 11 games without a hit, and now has four with three or more. 35 of his 74 total bases have come in his five best games - he's slugging 1.458 in those, .410 the rest of the time. For comparison's sake, Casas and Jimenez both have eight games without a hit. I don't know that it's anything meaningful. It's possible that it's small sample noise, it's possible he's inflating his numbers beating up on the worst of Triple-A pitching, and it's possible he's just one of those guys who isn't as consistent on a game to game basis but will dominate a game frequently enough that everyone's fine with it. Huh. Whether or not it means anything, it is kind of interesting: Games with X number of hits: 0: 11 1: 7 2: 6 3: 3 4: 0 5: 1 So 2+ in 10 games, more games than those in which he only has 1. Games reaching base X number of times: 0: 6 1: 6 2: 9 3: 3 4: 2 5: 2 What a weird distribution. Games with X extra-base hits: 0: 13 1: 13 2: 1 3: 1 I think this leads to the most interesting stat: Duran has hits in 17 games. He has extra-base hits in all but two of them. Is this clustering dependent on opponent at all? Is he basically crushing some opponents and not others? Also, when talking about games instead of AB or even pitches, we are taking what's already a not very large sample size and making it even smaller.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,784
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Post by mobaz on Jun 19, 2021 11:14:47 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2021 11:46:52 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 19, 2021 12:02:12 GMT -5
Nice story by Alex Speier in today's Globe about Duran and how his father inspired him to hit the weights and become the power hitter he is today. www.bostonglobe.com
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 19, 2021 12:19:23 GMT -5
Games with X extra-base hits: 0: 13 1: 13 2: 1 3: 1 I think this leads to the most interesting stat: Duran has hits in 17 games. He has extra-base hits in all but two of them. Probably stating the obvious, but I wonder if this has to do with him trying to become a power hitter - I mean, clearly its happening because he's trying to become a power hitter, but I wonder if he's focusing even more on hard contact at the expense of overall contact. Put another way, he seems to be succeeding at transforming himself into a power hitter, and once that settles in and becomes his approach rather than something he has to think about, I wonder if this normalizes and slg and k's go down a bit, and maybe ba and obp come up, and the game-to-game numbers become a little more consistent.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2021 20:34:00 GMT -5
That Schur = Ken Tremendous was something I discovered only after finishing The Good Place (which he created and ran) and ranking it in my 10 favorite TV shows of all time.* It's not too often that my baseball and sci-fi and fantasy passions cross. Made me very happy.
* Not an uncommon opinion. This fall it's expected to become the first TV series ever to win as many Hugo Awards as it had seasons.
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Post by jdb on Jun 20, 2021 7:30:12 GMT -5
What do we think the timeline will look like for a call up? I know he could use some more reps in the field but we have an obvious hole to fill in the OF. Would mid July after the break be feasible? Probably gives him about 100-125 more ABs.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 20, 2021 8:53:42 GMT -5
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 20, 2021 18:15:05 GMT -5
Prospects Live The Minor League Daily Sheet: JUNE 19, 2021 Jarren Duran, OF BOS (Triple-A) 2-for-3, RBI, R, BB Has really shown more approach and situational hitting over the last few weeks. This is a welcome departure from his previous form of selling out on everything for his pullside. If Duran can marry his new found power with his foundational approach we may really have an interesting potential player at the big league level. www.prospectslive.com/general/milb-daily-sheet-prospects-live-6-19
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Post by unitspin on Jun 20, 2021 18:37:51 GMT -5
All protein bars nothing else to see here.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 20, 2021 22:30:48 GMT -5
His projections is fangraphs are for a wRC+ between 86 and 90 and about a 0 WAR. I'm curious how they think through the decision between knowing that (1) Duran is likely better than their worst outfielder and (2) there's a real risk that he's going to be at or slightly below replacement level.
We know this market is ruthless against underperformers, they'll very quickly forgot the "at least he's better than Franchy/Santana" and shift to the "he's not good enough for Fenway" talk track.
With that said, this stretch in June from him is starting to make me think he's close. It looks a lot better than his May, which was bolstered by the 5/5 night and the highlight-reel HRs.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 21, 2021 5:41:05 GMT -5
The Wander Franco era begins in TB this week. I am interested to see if he excels or is just like Kelenic and many other highly touted rooks who have made their debuts and underwhelmed lately at the MLB level.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,784
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Post by mobaz on Jun 21, 2021 7:20:35 GMT -5
The Wander Franco era begins in TB this week. I am interested to see if he excels or is just like Kelenic and many other highly touted rooks who have made their debuts and underwhelmed lately at the MLB level. The rookies to-date have not started out positively. I decided to look at all ML debuts from players called up after the 1st week of the 2021 season. 30 ABs or more. Trevor Larnach of MIN has 0.8 WAR and .811 OPS in 116 ABs. Nick Gordon, Jason Vosler and Taylor Walls are okay, the remaining 8 (including Kelenic) have been bad so far. Average age is 24 so not an overly young group. Is AAA hitting ahead of AAA pitching across the board? Is that making guys look better? Obviously we have Danny Santana and Franchy as AAAA type hitters right now, but both of those guys had stretches in ML that make them look competent so they might have just been hot. All that to say I have real worry about Duran succeeding, especially since his defense is a work in progress and his hot-and-cold streak hitting style probably needs some work.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 21, 2021 8:25:23 GMT -5
The opposite field power starting to show up is enticing. If he finds consistency over the next couple weeks, you have to bring him up to see if he's an answer prior to the trade deadline.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 21, 2021 8:47:24 GMT -5
The Wander Franco era begins in TB this week. I am interested to see if he excels or is just like Kelenic and many other highly touted rooks who have made their debuts and underwhelmed lately at the MLB level. The rookies to-date have not started out positively. I decided to look at all ML debuts from players called up after the 1st week of the 2021 season. 30 ABs or more. Trevor Larnach of MIN has 0.8 WAR and .811 OPS in 116 ABs. Nick Gordon, Jason Vosler and Taylor Walls are okay, the remaining 8 (including Kelenic) have been bad so far. Average age is 24 so not an overly young group. Is AAA hitting ahead of AAA pitching across the board? Is that making guys look better? Obviously we have Danny Santana and Franchy as AAAA type hitters right now, but both of those guys had stretches in ML that make them look competent so they might have just been hot. All that to say I have real worry about Duran succeeding, especially since his defense is a work in progress and his hot-and-cold streak hitting style probably needs some work. I have brought it up a few times, the disparity between AAA and the majors seems really pronounced, more so than I can remember ever. Maybe it is the off year for the minors last year, could be a big factor. Take a look at Jo Adell from last year, just another example. I am hopeful for Duran and I don't think it is as much his D as everyone is saying, he can't be worse than JD and others out there with his athleticism. I would imagine his speed makes up for bad jumps in most cases. I think the Sox just want to maximize his potential to succeed by being conservative, they see what is going on out there and want to avoid a big slump upon moving him up, maybe. I expect Franchy to get the first call, hopefully soon as far as I am concerned, and Duran sometime soon depending on performance. Either way this has become a much more enjoyable season than most expected. I think the trials and tribulations add to the interest more so than a team just running away with it.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 21, 2021 9:06:01 GMT -5
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