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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 7, 2021 21:21:29 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed this but what’s the projection on Durans defense? Obviously it’s not great now but I figure with the speed maybe he projects out to be above average with some experience?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2021 9:51:07 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2021 10:19:29 GMT -5
Chris, if as you say they are not calling him up due to the super two rules then fine, end of story. If however they are not calling him up because they feel he is not ready, why do they feel he is not ready? Isn't it because of his defense? If it's because of his defense, how long will it take him to learn to play adequate outfield defense at a major league level. As the previous poster said, it has already been three years since they made the switch. Will another month or two matter? Did it take Mookie 3 years? Are they willing to let his bat (presuming his bat is ready which I think it is) stay in the minors as he tries to learn how to play outfield? The soxprospect write up on Duran says: At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was somewhat wasted. Presumably he played second throughout his college and high school careers. How long could it take someone who has played the position for years to get back to where they were? Hence my original question - How good was he at second base before the switch? After three years of trying, how do we know he is ever going to be a competent big league outfielder? Not saying it is definitely the right thing to do. Just asking for more information about whether people who remember him as a second baseman think he could play that spot in the majors. Well, there's his defense. His K rate isn't bad but isn't great (I think it's come down lately, which is good). His road numbers are much worse than his home numbers (.261/.346/.391, 1 HR in 26 PA vs. .286/.375/.735, 6 HR in 56 PA), which makes me wonder how much one needs to account for Polar Park, although the samples are still quite small. And as I think James has said, I'd come up with another comparison for how long it takes to learn a new position than Mookie Betts. That he was able to learn the OF so quickly is part of why he's been one of the top handful of players in the game. That's the new "well Greg Maddux didn't need to throw 98". Yeah, because he was Greg Maddux. As a general response to a number of posts, why do people think he'd be better at second base after not playing it for 3 years? Wouldn't making him re-learn second base just make him take even longer? It's not like the Betts situation where they had their second baseman and had available at-bats in the outfield. His being an outfielder versus a second baseman isn't getting him called up sooner.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 9, 2021 13:18:49 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed this but what’s the projection on Durans defense? Obviously it’s not great now but I figure with the speed maybe he projects out to be above average with some experience? I wonder if the three paragraph response below from Chris answered your question about the Duran defense? I know it did not answer mine. OK, so Mookie is the wrong comparison. How about offering one you consider to be legitimate. Duran has been an outfielder for three years now. How much longer does he need to be big league ready? What happens if he is never more than a marginally qualified left fielder but can hit? Is there any factual basis to rely on the super two argument as a reason not to call him up?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 9, 2021 13:47:47 GMT -5
I believe we will see Duran in Boston by the middle of July. It is nice to see him and Casas making heads turn! It has been awhile since some of our prospects have made this much of a fuss. Really have missed that!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 9, 2021 16:04:44 GMT -5
I believe we will see Duran in Boston by the middle of July. It is nice to see him and Casas making heads turn! It has been awhile since some of our prospects have made this much of a fuss. Really have missed that!! It could be sooner based on the performance of him and the guys that are there now, he rakes and they struggle and it could be less. I do hope Arroyo continues to hit well leading off and that could play a part. From what I have read from reports posted here he did nothing but impress at the Olympic qualifier and he has done nothing but impress at every stop over the past few years. His D isn't getting much better in the next 3 weeks.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 9, 2021 16:16:43 GMT -5
I believe we will see Duran in Boston by the middle of July. It is nice to see him and Casas making heads turn! It has been awhile since some of our prospects have made this much of a fuss. Really have missed that!! It could be sooner based on the performance of him and the guys that are there now, he rakes and they struggle and it could be less. I do hope Arroyo continues to hit well leading off and that could play a part. From what I have read from reports posted here he did nothing but impress at the Olympic qualifier and he has done nothing but impress at every stop over the past few years. His D isn't getting much better in the next 3 weeks. We watched Manny play LF, and on occasion JD Martinez dons a glove and plays in the field. I really don't see this kids D as being an impediment even if he never reaches his full potential defensively. I'm fine with the conservative route, making sure he doesn't get super 2 status, but I can't be sold on his defense holding him back. Based on what Chris said, a few more weeks to see his home and road splits, and K' rates probably won't hurt.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 9, 2021 16:27:34 GMT -5
This is my point. I agree Mookie Betts is not a good comp in terms of Duran's ability to play outfield. Duran has had 3 years and apparently is still not ready. Why does anyone believe he will turn into a good outfielder in another 2 months? Another 2 years? Ever? Meanwhile people are comparing him to Mike frigging Trout, I assume because of his offensive abilities.! I realize that is hyperbole (and his current AAA stats certainly don't seem to support it) , but if he is a game changing offensive player I don't want him sitting in the minors another 3 months while he tries to become a decent outfielder. So my question was and is does Duran have the skills to be a decent fielding major league 2nd baseman? He played 2nd in college and presumably in high school and little league -probably for at least 10 years. His writeup on this site seems to suggest he had some skllls there. Yes, he has been away from it for 3 years, but if he was good at it when he was playing 2nd maybe he has a faster path to the majors if he went back to 2nd instead of staying at a position he has been playing for 3 years and apparently still isn't very good at. Perhaps Duran's better comp for outfield play is Hanley Ramirez - As i recall, he tried to move from infield to outfield one year and never got good at it. Sorry if I missed this but what’s the projection on Durans defense? Obviously it’s not great now but I figure with the speed maybe he projects out to be above average with some experience? I wonder if the three paragraph response below from Chris answered your question about the Duran defense? I know it did not answer mine. OK, so Mookie is the wrong comparison. How about offering one you consider to be legitimate. Duran has been an outfielder for three years now. How much longer does he need to be big league ready? What happens if he is never more than a marginally qualified left fielder but can hit? Is there any factual basis to rely on the super two argument as a reason not to call him up?
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Post by jimgosger on Jun 9, 2021 18:25:05 GMT -5
I think the super two argument holds sway here. That's why he won't be up until the middle of July. He's not fully developed as an OF right now. With his speed he can be a CF, but CF in Fenway is very difficult. He still doesn't get great jumps on balls and I believe he made an impactful error in the Olympic qualifiers. Having said that I don't think it's the defense that is holding him down. I think it's the super two rule.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 9, 2021 18:36:49 GMT -5
Just to temper expectations. Jarred Kelenic was top 4 prospect that crushed it in the minors and this is what he did when called up a month ago. Duran has struck out a lot down there and Franchy is killing it there so connect those dots. Big difference between here and there. www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kelenja01.shtml
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 9, 2021 18:38:56 GMT -5
I still feel like it's defense and reps holding him down. They want him to come up to stay, and with K rate, difficulty interpreting results in Polar Park and in AAA after a year off, and reps on OF reads, it's worth making sure.
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Post by azblue on Jun 12, 2021 9:47:13 GMT -5
ORG CLASS PLAYER AB R H RBI AVG NOTES BOS AA Triston Casas, 1B 3 0 0 1 0.329 BB (10), BOS AAA Jeter Downs, 2B 4 0 0 0 0 0.222 BOS AAA Jarren Duran, OF 5 1 1 2 0.275 HR (8), BOS LoA Gilberto Jimenez, OF 5 0 0 0 0.281 BOS AA Ronaldo Hernandez, C 4 0 0 0 0.221 BOS LoA Matthew Lugo, SS 5 1 1 0 0.226 SB (4), BOS AAA Connor Wong, C 3 1 0 0 0 0.167 BB (2), BOS AAA Jonathan Arauz, SS 3 1 1 3 0.188 HR (3), BOS AA Hudson Potts, 3B 4 0 0 0 0.000 E (1), BOS LoA Ceddanne Rafaela, UTL 3 0 0 0 0.239 BB (9)
Not much to be excited about at this point in the minor league season.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 12, 2021 12:29:52 GMT -5
I think the super two argument holds sway here. That's why he won't be up until the middle of July. He's not fully developed as an OF right now. With his speed he can be a CF, but CF in Fenway is very difficult. He still doesn't get great jumps on balls and I believe he made an impactful error in the Olympic qualifiers. Having said that I don't think it's the defense that is holding him down. I think it's the super two rule. Several of us have asked, implied or outright claimed that it is the super two rule that is the reason why Duran has not been called up. NOT TRUE. While something of a moveable target, the Super Two rule effective date is approximately two years and 130 days of MLB service time. In real time, that date is near May 20. Duran could have and can be called up anytime after that. Including today.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 12, 2021 23:44:36 GMT -5
I think the super two argument holds sway here. That's why he won't be up until the middle of July. He's not fully developed as an OF right now. With his speed he can be a CF, but CF in Fenway is very difficult. He still doesn't get great jumps on balls and I believe he made an impactful error in the Olympic qualifiers. Having said that I don't think it's the defense that is holding him down. I think it's the super two rule. Several of us have asked, implied or outright claimed that it is the super two rule that is the reason why Duran has not been called up. NOT TRUE. While something of a moveable target, the Super Two rule effective date is approximately two years and 130 days of MLB service time. In real time, that date is near May 20. Duran could have and can be called up anytime after that. Including today. NOT TRUE. Every year it works out to about mid June, late June to be safe. It's not based on number of days but based on a percentage of the total player pool. It's cumbersome but here's a sort of explanation on why that is: forums.ootpdevelopments.com/showthread.php?t=325355It's percentage of players not percentage of years. The Rays are in a pennant race and have what is likely the most impact player major league ready (Wander Franco). There's a reason he's not here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 13, 2021 0:31:32 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the case but, people MIGHT be confusing service time with Super Two.
The time for any MLB team to retain control of any prospect for 6+ years has already passed. That happens about 3 weeks into the season.
Super two refers to the first year a player is eligible for arbitration. For the majority of players, that's after three years. For some, the "super two", it's the 2+ years with the most days. (Top 15% I believe). That moving up by one year would be mega millions for a star player. Imagine if Mookie had been a super two and his last year's salary happened the year before. The millions add up fast.
Poster boy for a super two "mistake" was Ryan Howard with the Phillies. Since then, it's incredibly rare to see any top 100 or 200 prospect to be called up before the estimated projected time.
Every year when you see the super two date, they are talking about the prospects from three years ago, not the prospects in the minors now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 13, 2021 1:12:01 GMT -5
I don't know if it's passed already but, service time could be a factor for Houck. It behooves the Sox to keep him in AAA until after the total days from last year and the days remaining this year are less than 170. Normally, that wouldn't have been a consideration but his injury brings that into potential territory.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 13, 2021 1:45:26 GMT -5
Several of us have asked, implied or outright claimed that it is the super two rule that is the reason why Duran has not been called up. NOT TRUE. While something of a moveable target, the Super Two rule effective date is approximately two years and 130 days of MLB service time. In real time, that date is near May 20. Duran could have and can be called up anytime after that. Including today. NOT TRUE. Every year it works out to about mid June, late June to be safe. It's not based on number of days but based on a percentage of the total player pool. It's cumbersome but here's a sort of explanation on why that is: forums.ootpdevelopments.com/showthread.php?t=325355It's percentage of players not percentage of years. The Rays are in a pennant race and have what is likely the most impact player major league ready (Wander Franco). There's a reason he's not here. I am not trying to get into a pissing match with you, but we have both stated Facts without attribution. I quoted, without mentioning the source, a website that said categorically that the Super Two date was about 130 days before the end of the season. You have stated categorically, without attribution, that it is about a month and change later than that. The source I read said that super two applied to the most senior 22% of rookies. I will go look for an MLB statement, but since the super two date is a moving target, MLB is not going to have a date certain in its rules. I wonder if the Sox Prospects management and wise men could weigh in here.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 13, 2021 1:56:52 GMT -5
SUPER TWO
My source turns out to have been MLB.
Go mlb.com and lookup Super Two in the glossary there. MLB very specifically mentions the 130 day cutoff as the general rule.
I hope that moves us forward, and I apologize for my previous posting because I should have looked up the source prior to those comments.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 13, 2021 4:00:42 GMT -5
I interpret the cutoff as the earliest it could be, not the actual date. It happens every year and I haven't seen where anything has changed. If what you think is true, there wouldn't be articles literally all over the place regarding the callup date. Here's one on Wander Franco: In reality, the Rays are keeping him down for financial reasons. Not calling him up after the first 16 days of the season provided Tampa Bay with an additional year of contractual control By waiting until mid-June, Franco doesn’t become a “Super Two player” and the Rays get a fourth season of arbitration control. So, expect Franco’s developing maturity to remarkably improve and for him to have MLB-worthy experience in three weeks.You will need to scroll down to the Rays.... sportsnaut.com/mlb-trade-rumors-2021/
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Post by jmei on Jun 13, 2021 5:55:51 GMT -5
That’s right—the 130 days is the earliest cutoff date, but it’s typically later and falls sometime in early June. Exact date varies every year and depends on when players that year get called up. Teams usually wait until mid/late June just to be safe. Here are a few articles explaining things. www.milb.com/news/gcs-124357946library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 13, 2021 12:55:24 GMT -5
It's not baseball so more than I want to think about but I'm pretty sure there will be a Covid effect here since the group consists of all players who will come to have between 2 and 3 years of service time two years from now, not just this year. Teams will adjust accordingly, unknown (to me) which way.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 13, 2021 13:33:45 GMT -5
That’s right—the 130 days is the earliest cutoff date, but it’s typically later and falls sometime in early June. Exact date varies every year and depends on when players that year get called up. Teams usually wait until mid/late June just to be safe. Here are a few articles explaining things. www.milb.com/news/gcs-124357946library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/Not quite. Over the last dozen years, the Super Two date has varied from 115 days to 146 with about half over 130. Go look it up by year.
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Post by jmei on Jun 13, 2021 13:38:23 GMT -5
That’s right—the 130 days is the earliest cutoff date, but it’s typically later and falls sometime in early June. Exact date varies every year and depends on when players that year get called up. Teams usually wait until mid/late June just to be safe. Here are a few articles explaining things. www.milb.com/news/gcs-124357946library.fangraphs.com/business/super-two/Not quite. Over the last dozen years, the Super Two date has varied from 115 days to 146 with about half over 130. Go look it up by year. You’re right—the 130 days is an average, not a cutoff.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jun 13, 2021 16:25:39 GMT -5
Just to temper expectations. Jarred Kelenic was top 4 prospect that crushed it in the minors and this is what he did when called up a month ago. Duran has struck out a lot down there and Franchy is killing it there so connect those dots. Big difference between here and there. www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kelenja01.shtmlKelenic never played college ball.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 14, 2021 6:09:55 GMT -5
Just to temper expectations. Jarred Kelenic was top 4 prospect that crushed it in the minors and this is what he did when called up a month ago. Duran has struck out a lot down there and Franchy is killing it there so connect those dots. Big difference between here and there. www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kelenja01.shtmlKelenic never played college ball. Duran hit three home runs in three years of college ball. You think that experience prepared him to have a better outcome than Kelenic?
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