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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2018 7:37:23 GMT -5
If there's anything I can guarantee this trade deadline, it's that Hembree and a marginal prospect is NOT getting Britton. I don't get why people think Britton isn't getting much this deadline in terms of prospect value. He's the best rental reliever out there and there will be at least 5-7 teams interested in getting him. It wouldn't surprise me if Britton gets a top 10 prospect in a good farm system, never mind a top 5 prospect in the Sox system. People seem to forget that competition drives the price up on even a rental reliever. This is what I was warning everyone about when it came to the Zach Britton sweepstakes. These are the exact types of reports that tell us nothing but people use to draw conclusions. This doesn’t tell anything about what he goes for.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2018 8:06:35 GMT -5
They're better off standing pat in the bullpen than going after Rodney or someone else who doesn't improve them at all.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 8:17:52 GMT -5
These are the exact types of reports that tell us nothing but people use to draw conclusions. This doesn’t tell anything about what he goes for. I do not think Heyman is far off. We will see. Competition is never a good thing when trying to buy anything, no matter what market you're buying in. Baseball is no exception.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 8:22:06 GMT -5
They're better off standing pat in the bullpen than going after Rodney or someone else who doesn't improve them at all. I don't disagree with you Jim. The Sox most likeliest option is to probably go after Fiers or Matt Harvey and hope Eduardo comes back. You do that, you could have a rotation of Sale, Eduardo, Porcello, and Fiers/Harvey with Price in the bullpen. That's probably the best the Sox can do at this point while anticipating the market for Britton. I won't rule out a overpay from Dombrowski for a guy like Iglesias or something, but we'll see about that. Edit- Just make sure you acquire Dozier.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 8:26:29 GMT -5
I've had the same concern. Teams will be outbidding each other to try land Britton. Despite that I still don't think it's going to get the Orioles a prospect that's rated in the top 75. The Nationals gave up 3 players for Herrera. None of them look like an overwhelming loss. With the Sox a package like the Nationals gave up might be more keenly felt because the Sox system is so shallow. It could cost the Sox somebody like Chavis or Dalbec along with one of Lakins or Buttrey and an A ball lottery ticket. That would hurt the Sox more than a similar package would hurt another team like Houston. That maybe why we might get subjected to the Fernando Rodney horror show come 7/31. I don't think the Sox will get Rodney. I do give Dombrowski some blame for not going after Herrera ealry or even spending the money to go get Tony Watson in the off season. That's where you can definitely question what Dombrowski was doing and can blame him for not going after these guys hard enough when they were available.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 8:49:37 GMT -5
I've had the same concern. Teams will be outbidding each other to try land Britton. Despite that I still don't think it's going to get the Orioles a prospect that's rated in the top 75. The Nationals gave up 3 players for Herrera. None of them look like an overwhelming loss. With the Sox a package like the Nationals gave up might be more keenly felt because the Sox system is so shallow. It could cost the Sox somebody like Chavis or Dalbec along with one of Lakins or Buttrey and an A ball lottery ticket. That would hurt the Sox more than a similar package would hurt another team like Houston. That maybe why we might get subjected to the Fernando Rodney horror show come 7/31. I don't think the Sox will get Rodney. I do give Dombrowski some blame for not going after Herrera ealry or even spending the money to go get Tony Watson in the off season. That's where you can definitely question what Dombrowski was doing and can blame him for not going after these guys hard enough when they were available. I don't blame Dombrowski for not going after these guys hard enough. I was hoping for Watson. My guess is that Dombrowski's plan included signing JDM for his price - so he kind of had to wait things out and reel in the big fish instead of going after the depth signings. He was trying to do this so that he didn't go over the luxury tax limit if he did sign JDM. He probably hoped Carson Smith would play a key role in the bullpen. He probably felt that Steven Wright would come back at some point. He was probably hoping that Thornburg would come back the way he was in Milwaukee. He was probably hoping these things would happen and he wouldn't have to exceed the 237 million threshold. I guess he's willing to go over if need be but was hoping he wouldn't have to. Now he kind of has to.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 22, 2018 8:54:41 GMT -5
@buster_ESPN The Indians' separation in the AL Central will give some space for the Twins to pursue best possible deals for Brian Dozier, and others. Dozier makes sense for Brewers, for sure, and depending on Boston's internal assessment of Dustin Pedroia health, could be a fit for Red Sox
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 9:08:05 GMT -5
I'm liking Fiers more when I look at everything in context. Yeap his peripherals are really bad, but he comes with one year of control past this year and he's out there for probably not a lot.
Fiers gives you the option of trading Porcello after the year if you want a cheaper back of the rotation starter in 2019.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2018 9:18:02 GMT -5
I'm liking Fiers more when I look at everything in context. Yeap his peripherals are really bad, but he comes with one year of control past this year and he's out there for probably not a lot. Fiers gives you the option of trading Porcello after the year if you want a cheaper back of the rotation starter in 2019. I don’t think Porcello qualifies as a back of the rotation starter. He’s easily better than that. He’s also a guy they can’t really afford to trade. His innings are invaluable to this team.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 10:13:49 GMT -5
I'm liking Fiers more when I look at everything in context. Yeap his peripherals are really bad, but he comes with one year of control past this year and he's out there for probably not a lot. Fiers gives you the option of trading Porcello after the year if you want a cheaper back of the rotation starter in 2019. I don’t think Porcello qualifies as a back of the rotation starter. He’s easily better than that. He’s also a guy they can’t really afford to trade. His innings are invaluable to this team. He does have the ceiling of a mid rotation type, but he often falls short of that. He is a very valuable guy, but he is making a lot aav wise. The Sox need to start extending Xander, Sale, Eduardo, Mookie, and Benintendi this off season or they risk paying a lot more later. They also risk losing Sale or Xander if they don't extend them next offseason.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2018 10:42:12 GMT -5
I don’t think Porcello qualifies as a back of the rotation starter. He’s easily better than that. He’s also a guy they can’t really afford to trade. His innings are invaluable to this team. He does have the ceiling of a mid rotation type, but he often falls short of that. He is a very valuable guy, but he is making a lot aav wise. The Sox need to start extending Xander, Sale, Eduardo, Mookie, and Benintendi this off season or they risk paying a lot more later. They also risk losing Sale or Xander if they don't extend them next offseason. This is a patently ridiculous statement. The man won a Cy Young award. He therefore has a **ceiling of #1 starter**. You’ve got to get over making these grossly negatively exaggerated statements. They kill your arguments completely and impact your credibility. Rick Porcello has averaged 3 WAR per season over his career. That’s a low-end 2. He’s usually a 3, sometimes a 2, rarely a 1, and rarely a 4. I’m on board with trading him if they have a feasible replacement who’s not a major step down. But at least be honest in your evaluation and go from there with your argument. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Jul 22, 2018 10:47:30 GMT -5
After a couple months in the AL East Fiers would make Porcello look like Nolan Ryan.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2018 10:52:12 GMT -5
I don’t think Porcello qualifies as a back of the rotation starter. He’s easily better than that. He’s also a guy they can’t really afford to trade. His innings are invaluable to this team. He does have the ceiling of a mid rotation type, but he often falls short of that. He is a very valuable guy, but he is making a lot aav wise. The Sox need to start extending Xander, Sale, Eduardo, Mookie, and Benintendi this off season or they risk paying a lot more later. They also risk losing Sale or Xander if they don't extend them next offseason. The guy won the Cy Young. No words...
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 11:02:50 GMT -5
He does have the ceiling of a mid rotation type, but he often falls short of that. He is a very valuable guy, but he is making a lot aav wise. The Sox need to start extending Xander, Sale, Eduardo, Mookie, and Benintendi this off season or they risk paying a lot more later. They also risk losing Sale or Xander if they don't extend them next offseason. This is a patently ridiculous statement. The man won a Cy Young award. He therefore has a **ceiling of #1 starter**. You’ve got to get over making these grossly negatively exaggerated statements. They kill your arguments completely and impact your credibility. Rick Porcello has averaged 3 WAR per season over his career. That’s a low-end 2. He’s usually a 3, sometimes a 2, rarely a 1, and rarely a 4. I’m on board with trading him if they have a feasible replacement who’s not a major step down. But at least be honest in your evaluation and go from there with your argument. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=PHe has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 22, 2018 11:05:31 GMT -5
This is a patently ridiculous statement. The man won a Cy Young award. He therefore has a **ceiling of #1 starter**. You’ve got to get over making these grossly negatively exaggerated statements. They kill your arguments completely and impact your credibility. Rick Porcello has averaged 3 WAR per season over his career. That’s a low-end 2. He’s usually a 3, sometimes a 2, rarely a 1, and rarely a 4. I’m on board with trading him if they have a feasible replacement who’s not a major step down. But at least be honest in your evaluation and go from there with your argument. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=PHe has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. I agree that Porcello isn’t good if you ignore the times when he’s good.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2018 11:11:48 GMT -5
This is a patently ridiculous statement. The man won a Cy Young award. He therefore has a **ceiling of #1 starter**. You’ve got to get over making these grossly negatively exaggerated statements. They kill your arguments completely and impact your credibility. Rick Porcello has averaged 3 WAR per season over his career. That’s a low-end 2. He’s usually a 3, sometimes a 2, rarely a 1, and rarely a 4. I’m on board with trading him if they have a feasible replacement who’s not a major step down. But at least be honest in your evaluation and go from there with your argument. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=PHe has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. Dude, league average ERA is over 4. That’s average starter territory. Average=3. You can use bWAR if you want, and he’s still a 3: www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml. You stated “he has the ceiling of a mid-rotation type.” Those are YOUR words. By bWAR he’s had two 4/5 years in Boston, a 1 year, and is on pace for a 2 this year (3.5 bWAR). You’re just doubling down on a blatantly false assertion. He has a 1/1a ceiling, and if this year ends roughly on his current pace, **he’s just as likely to pitch at a TOR level as he is back-end**.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 11:12:01 GMT -5
He has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. I agree that Porcello isn’t good if you ignore the times when he’s good. Will you acknowledge the years he was bad too then? Doubt it. Either way, his entire career has screamed mid rotation type. Even during that vaunted cy young season, Porcello had a xFIP of 3.89
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2018 11:14:32 GMT -5
I agree that Porcello isn’t good if you ignore the times when he’s good. Will you acknowledge the years he was bad too then? Doubt it. Either way, his entire career has screamed mid rotation type. “He has the ceiling of mid-rotation type but often falls short of that.” “His entire career has screamed mid-rotation type.” I think you’re confused as to what “ceiling” means.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 11:15:29 GMT -5
He has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. Dude, league average ERA is over 4. That’s average starter territory. Average=3. You can use bWAR if you want, and he’s still a 3: www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml. You stated “he has the ceiling of a mid-rotation type.” Those are YOUR words. By bWAR he’s had two 4/5 years in Boston, a 1 year, and is on pace for a 2 this year (3.5 bWAR). You’re just doubling down on a blatantly false assertion. He has a 1/1a ceiling, and if this year ends roughly on his current pace, **he’s just as likely to pitch at a TOR level as he is back-end**. See post above. XFip of 3.89 during his cy young award winning season. Even at his best, the peripherals still point more towards him being a mid rotation type.
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Post by azblue on Jul 22, 2018 11:16:47 GMT -5
Definition of ceiling: "an upper usually prescribed limit."
It seems to me that Porcello's "ceiling" is Cy Young Award winner.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 11:18:33 GMT -5
Definition of ceiling: "an upper usually prescribed limit." It seems to me that Porcello's "ceiling" is Cy Young Award winner. Derek Jeter also won gold glove awards. Justin Verlander was the more deserving pitcher during Porcello's Cy Young award winning season.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Jul 22, 2018 11:53:57 GMT -5
He has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. I agree that Porcello isn’t good if you ignore the times when he’s good. Generally speaking... A 4.00 ERA in Boston/NY/Baltimore is as good as a 3.00 in any other division in baseball. People don’t seem to get that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 11:56:08 GMT -5
Definition of ceiling: "an upper usually prescribed limit." It seems to me that Porcello's "ceiling" is Cy Young Award winner. Derek Jeter also won gold glove awards. Justin Verlander was the more deserving pitcher during Porcello's Cy Young award winning season. Maybe Verlander should have won the award that year but it wasn't that clearcut. Porcello was damn good. Say he's average or a bit above average. Contrast that with a replacement level pitcher for all those innings and suddenly the man becomes quite valuable saving you a bunch of runs that others would give up. He's extremely valuable and his ceiling is that of an ace/#2 starter which he's kind of been this season and in 2016. He's been a #3/#4 throughout most of his career beyond that. They had some stacked rotations in Detroit so he was a #4 starter mostly there. If you're trying to make the point that when the Sox have to figure out who to give money to after the 2019 season and you're saying he'd have to wait in line behind Sale and Bogaerts that's one thing. But that doesn't seem to be what's coming out.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2018 12:07:03 GMT -5
The sky isn't blue.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 22, 2018 12:14:38 GMT -5
@rumorbreakmlb #Braves, #Yankees, #Athletics, #RedSox, #Mariners all have scouts at today's #BlueJays vs #Orioles game. #MLB
Britton
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