SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
8/7-8/9 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 16:50:27 GMT -5
I do think that it's a little disingenuous to look solely at their walk numbers, which are admittedly mediocre (17th best BB% among all relievers), while not mentioning their strikeout (5th best K% among all relievers) and home run (2nd best HR/9 among all reliever) numbers. Yes, they walk a lot of hitters, but they also strike them out and limit home runs, which altogether makes them a well above-average bullpen (4th by ERA- and 5th by xFIP-). To put it another way, Fangraphs' depth charts projections (which take into account, among other things, the current depth chart and projected future performance on a player-by-player basis) rates the Red Sox as having the seventh-best bullpen going forward, with Kimbrel adding a lot of value and each of Kelly, Barnes and Hembree adding a little value. Since it seems quite unlikely that the bullpen causes the Red Sox to give up the division lead, isn't it more useful to try to project what the playoff bullpen would be? If ERod, Price or Eovaldi are in the pen, it should be a huge upgrade over whoever they bump off the roster, especially since they could be used in the Aaron Miller role.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 16:54:08 GMT -5
I do think that it's a little disingenuous to look solely at their walk numbers, which are admittedly mediocre (17th best BB% among all relievers), while not mentioning their strikeout (5th best K% among all relievers) and home run (2nd best HR/9 among all reliever) numbers. Yes, they walk a lot of hitters, but they also strike them out and limit home runs, which altogether makes them a well above-average bullpen (4th by ERA- and 5th by xFIP-). To put it another way, Fangraphs' depth charts projections (which take into account, among other things, the current depth chart and projected future performance on a player-by-player basis) rates the Red Sox as having the seventh-best bullpen going forward, with Kimbrel adding a lot of value and each of Kelly, Barnes and Hembree adding a little value. I hear what you're saying. 3 out of the 5 Sox best arms in in the bullpen in Brasier, Barnes, and Kelly have been actually elite when it's come to keeping the ball in the ballpark. They also limit the damage by striking people out. We are talking about a 5 game series in the first round however. Randomness and weaknesses tend to get exposed in this scenario. Walks are a huge part of that equation. Giving up free baserunners is *never* a good thing. Hopefully it doesn't affect the outcome, but it definitely could. That's all.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 17:11:39 GMT -5
Nunez is back at second base tonight.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Aug 8, 2018 17:13:51 GMT -5
Nunez is back at second base tonight. Oh Boy! On the turf too.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Aug 8, 2018 18:12:14 GMT -5
This pitcher is a new pitcher to the league so I expect a slow first round through the order and then the 2nd and 3rd time through the order to really jump on him
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:13:03 GMT -5
We are back for more good times !!
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2018 18:13:16 GMT -5
Haha, you didn't disappoint! Okay, I'm gonna do my best to follow this. So when you said they have a "hard contact giving up bullpen," of course you didn't mean the bullpen in general - you just meant one back-of-the-bullpen guy and another guy who's pitched 10 innings (both of whom are about average for hard contact %, but whatever). So we'll set that aside. And when you said "the bullpen is a mess" and the Red Sox have a "weak bullpen," you didn't mean they're not among the best in the league by any cumulative stat, whether it's WAR, ERA, WPA, or anything else. You also weren't talking about K rate (6th best in the majors), HRs (tied for best) or HR/FB rate (2nd best), which might be considered relevant. You were really only talking about walk rate. So I guess my question for you is: why do you think a bullpen should be judged solely on its BB rate, and not by any other stat that is meant to represent overall pitching quality (WAR, WPA, etc.), even though those stats themselves incorporate BB rate, as well as a bunch of other relevant information? From your other posts, it looks like you think BB rate is uniquely predictive of how a bullpen will perform in the playoffs. That would be interesting if it's true. (By "this bullpen is a mess," maybe you meant "this bullpen is very good, but projects to do less well in the playoffs.") Do you have any evidence of that? On the face of it, I'd be inclined to think FIP/ERA/WPA would be better predictors for playoff performance than the single BB/9 stat, but maybe I'm wrong. The playoffs are all about who can get on base, with making the least amount of contact as possible. Usually pitching dominates in the playoffs. Everyone is striking out. No one is getting on base. Walking people could have a huge effect on what a outcome of a series looks like or it might not effect it all. It is completely random, but it can effect a series *if it is that bad* (which it is). This team has the talent to overcome these weaknesses if they put a starter in the back innings and their starters go deep into games with the offense providing enough offense. This bullpen is a mess right now though if you look at the current roles past Kimbrel and Barnes. Kelly might be coming back to life, but he's been irrelevant for 2 months now. Brasier looks good, but he just got here a few weeks ago. Thornburg is inconsistent. Workman is a low leverage arm, so is Hembree along with Velazquez. Why does getting on base matter more in the playoffs? You're asserting this but not giving any evidence for it (or any reasons, really). I tried to look up if there's a difference in the amount of runs scored or in the ways runs are scored in the playoffs vs. the regular season but I can't figure out where to find that. If you can point to those stats that would be helpful. Also, if "making the least amount of contact as possible" matters, shouldn't the Sox' relievers' high K rate count in their favor? And their low hard contact rate? (But I'm not totally sure what you're actually saying here.) You're sticking with "this bullpen is a mess right now" despite all the stats that say they've been one of the best in the majors, so I guess when you say "mess" you really do mean "they're very good but might be worse in the playoffs." I guess that's settled, but tbh it's a little bit of a confusing way to express that idea.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 18:13:49 GMT -5
Ha, only NESN would still be tracking GWRBI. Moreland is 2nd on the Sox with 11. I haven't looked at that stat in 30 years.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 18:14:56 GMT -5
This pitcher is a new pitcher to the league so I expect a slow first round through the order and then the 2nd and 3rd time through the order to really jump on him Might be tough to hit him overall. It looks like he's got a assortment of pitches that he can throw at any location at any time. Sliders away from Mookie. Change ups away from Moreland.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 18:16:49 GMT -5
Gibbons was pretty smart to pitch him from the 2nd through 7th innings against the Mariners so they couldn't even look up the film on him before the game. But the Red Sox won't be surprised like that.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:21:59 GMT -5
Gibbons was pretty smart to pitch him from the 2nd through 7th innings against the Mariners so they couldn't even look up the film on him before the game. But the Red Sox won't be surprised like that. Eh....it's cagey....and quite unnecessary IMO.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 18:25:32 GMT -5
The playoffs are all about who can get on base, with making the least amount of contact as possible. Usually pitching dominates in the playoffs. Everyone is striking out. No one is getting on base. Walking people could have a huge effect on what a outcome of a series looks like or it might not effect it all. It is completely random, but it can effect a series *if it is that bad* (which it is). This team has the talent to overcome these weaknesses if they put a starter in the back innings and their starters go deep into games with the offense providing enough offense. This bullpen is a mess right now though if you look at the current roles past Kimbrel and Barnes. Kelly might be coming back to life, but he's been irrelevant for 2 months now. Brasier looks good, but he just got here a few weeks ago. Thornburg is inconsistent. Workman is a low leverage arm, so is Hembree along with Velazquez. Why does getting on base matter more in the playoffs? You're asserting this but not giving any evidence for it (or any reasons, really). I tried to look up if there's a difference in the amount of runs scored or in the ways runs are scored in the playoffs vs. the regular season but I can't figure out where to find that. If you can point to those stats that would be helpful. The playoffs are a random jumbled puzzle that can be affected by one extra man getting on base. Do you want me to present a example? Kevin Millar took a walk in the 2004 ALCS in game 4.....I think you know the rest of the story. Adrenaline is flowing. Everyone is throwing their hardest. Strikeouts, walks, and homeruns are at extremes in these scenarios due to the high velocity pitchers are throwing at. It's not the same versus the regular season. Pitchers like Andrew Miller are used in the 4th innings of games. It is a completely different animal.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Aug 8, 2018 18:27:47 GMT -5
This pitcher is a new pitcher to the league so I expect a slow first round through the order and then the 2nd and 3rd time through the order to really jump on him Might be tough to hit him overall. It looks like he's got a assortment of pitches that he can throw at any location at any time. Sliders away from Mookie. Change ups away from Moreland. The Sox have proven many times this year that they are able to make mid-game adjustments at the plate. As evidenced by the many late comebacks. They might not have film but they'll know what to expect the next time around the order. He looks tough to hit early so let's see if they can adjust.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 8, 2018 18:28:40 GMT -5
I'm surprised they aren't giving Leon a night off here. Butler is a good defensive catcher and Johnson is likely the pitcher he's most familiar with.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2018 18:31:05 GMT -5
Why does getting on base matter more in the playoffs? You're asserting this but not giving any evidence for it (or any reasons, really). I tried to look up if there's a difference in the amount of runs scored or in the ways runs are scored in the playoffs vs. the regular season but I can't figure out where to find that. If you can point to those stats that would be helpful. The playoffs are a random jumbled puzzle that can be affected by one extra man getting on base. So I'd ask again: why don't the Sox' high K rate and low hard contact rate and low HR rate count in their favor? Aren't those good ways of keeping guys off the bases? If it's a "random jumbled puzzle" that just seems to me like all the more reason to take overall performance into account, rather than just focus on one stat which, as you say yourself, is subject to high variance.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:33:53 GMT -5
I love watching Brian Johnson pitch. you can tell hes got a real feel for his craft.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 8, 2018 18:34:29 GMT -5
Buck Martinez "They should show this half inning (Johnson's 2nd) to young pitchers. Throw strikes, they aren't going to hit every strike you throw up there."
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 18:35:23 GMT -5
The playoffs are a random jumbled puzzle that can be affected by one extra man getting on base. So I'd ask again: why don't the Sox' high K rate and low hard contact rate and low HR rate count in their favor? Aren't those good ways of keeping guys off the bases? If it's a "random jumbled puzzle" that just seems to me like all the more reason to take overall performance into account, rather than just focus on one stat which, as you say yourself, is subject to high variance. Yes they are good ways of keeping runners off base. Yes the walks might not affect anything or it could. That's kind of the point I'm making. You just don't know and that's why this bullpen is still rather unsettling going into the playoffs this year.
|
|
|
Post by ortiz34 on Aug 8, 2018 18:36:12 GMT -5
Looks like going to the minors helped Devers.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Aug 8, 2018 18:36:24 GMT -5
I was worried watching Devers running full tilt on this turf
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 18:39:45 GMT -5
Can you not throw at Mookie's head?
Thanks Toronto.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,842
|
Post by wcp3 on Aug 8, 2018 18:41:17 GMT -5
I actually agree with Lyons for once that there have been too many pitches up and in on Mookie.
Someone on Toronto needs to get drilled next inning.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:42:15 GMT -5
nice !!!
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:43:34 GMT -5
I actually agree with Lyons for once that there have been too many pitches up and in on Mookie. Someone on Toronto needs to get drilled next inning. i don't want to see it, but I dig where you are coming from. Stolen base.....excellent
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 8, 2018 18:44:20 GMT -5
Mitch !!!
|
|
|