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8/7-8/9 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 8, 2018 11:45:48 GMT -5
The Yankees schedule is very easy the rest of the way with the exception of their west coast trip and their road trip to end the season against the Rays and Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2018 12:32:48 GMT -5
If we only read the comments, its hard to see m the team as playoff competitive, never mind a historically great season One very prolific commenter sort of skews the perspective there, I think.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2018 12:53:35 GMT -5
The Sox bullpen is the 4th best in baseball by WAR and FIP, 5th best by ERA, and 2nd best by WPA. They are mediocre at BB/9 (17th), but they're 4th best at hard contact %. Looking forward to see what totally different argument you're going to claim to have been making all along, now that the facts are on the table. 2 arms have been giving up hard contact in Thornburg and Workman. Maybe they are the outliers but they are included in the bullpen, that's why I made the claim about the hard contact in the bullpen comment. Also, if your bullpen can't be trusted to throw strikes in close games, then what do you really have here? Who are you going to trust come playoff time? There is a difference between a season bullpen and a playoff bullpen, and Dave Dombrowski has even been quoted to agree with that. The facts are on the table. They can't throw strikes half the time and this is the bullpen you want come playoff time? Nope give me Price, Wright, or maybe Lakins in the bullpen. Someone who can throw strikes outside of Kimbrel, Barnes, and maybe Brasier/Kelly come October. Haha, you didn't disappoint! Okay, I'm gonna do my best to follow this. So when you said they have a "hard contact giving up bullpen," of course you didn't mean the bullpen in general - you just meant one back-of-the-bullpen guy and another guy who's pitched 10 innings (both of whom are about average for hard contact %, but whatever). So we'll set that aside. And when you said "the bullpen is a mess" and the Red Sox have a "weak bullpen," you didn't mean they're not among the best in the league by any cumulative stat, whether it's WAR, ERA, WPA, or anything else. You also weren't talking about K rate (6th best in the majors), HRs (tied for best) or HR/FB rate (2nd best), which might be considered relevant. You were really only talking about walk rate. So I guess my question for you is: why do you think a bullpen should be judged solely on its BB rate, and not by any other stat that is meant to represent overall pitching quality (WAR, WPA, etc.), even though those stats themselves incorporate BB rate, as well as a bunch of other relevant information? From your other posts, it looks like you think BB rate is uniquely predictive of how a bullpen will perform in the playoffs. That would be interesting if it's true. (By "this bullpen is a mess," maybe you meant "this bullpen is very good, but projects to do less well in the playoffs.") Do you have any evidence of that? On the face of it, I'd be inclined to think FIP/ERA/WPA would be better predictors for playoff performance than the single BB/9 stat, but maybe I'm wrong.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2018 13:14:26 GMT -5
Exactly. The year the Yankees won 114 in the regular season the second best team in the league was actually the 92-70 Red Sox. That's a 22 game gulf between the 1998 Yankees and the second best team in the league. 92-70 is a good record and there have been teams to do worse and win the Series, but the talent level between 114-48 and 92-70 is huge. This year the Sox might just go out and win 110 games (my new "range" for the Sox is 105-110 which is absolutely nutty and they could even exceed that), but the Yankees and Astros should exceed 100 with room to spare. Even the Indians and A's should exceed 90 plus wins. There will be no 87 win team in the AL Playoffs this year. And in the NL it's completely opposite. Everybody is so bunched up. The Cubs could win 92 games and could have the highest win total in the league. The Yankees are on pace to win 101 games. The Sox 114. But your Sox have a new range for you or 105-110 and the Yankees will win 100 with room to spare? Houston’s on pace for 103 The Yankees should exceed 100 wins with room to spare. Their pace is 101 right now. Have you looked at their schedule the rest of the month? It's a joke. They were begging to lose yesterday's game but the White Sox just wouldn't let them. The White Sox actually made Sonny Gray look good. It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees get hot and win say 20 of 27. I do think the race will get closer. The Sox have a tougher schedule and at some point they may actually act human for a little bit. If you forced me to guess, I'll say the Sox win about 108 or 109 and the Yankees about 104. So would 104 count as "room to spare"?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 13:43:19 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox will win 125 or so and the Yankees will miss the playoffs.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 8, 2018 14:05:20 GMT -5
The Yankees are on pace to win 101 games. The Sox 114. But your Sox have a new range for you or 105-110 and the Yankees will win 100 with room to spare? Houston’s on pace for 103 The Yankees should exceed 100 wins with room to spare. Their pace is 101 right now. Have you looked at their schedule the rest of the month? It's a joke. They were begging to lose yesterday's game but the White Sox just wouldn't let them. The White Sox actually made Sonny Gray look good. It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees get hot and win say 20 of 27. I do think the race will get closer. The Sox have a tougher schedule and at some point they may actually act human for a little bit. If you forced me to guess, I'll say the Sox win about 108 or 109 and the Yankees about 104. So would 104 count as "room to spare"? Yea, could see them getting hot. Could also see them continuing to be a .500 team for a bit (20-20 in last 40) as they are injured and their pitching is a mess. They also tend to play down to their competition. I see them as a dangerous team that is playing like junk. It’s possible they win 104 but I’d put a higher probability they are under 100 wins. Edit: any way my point was the way in which you seemed confident the Sox would fall off and the Yankees would pick things up like it was the probability of the outcomes. Anything can certainly hwpp
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 8, 2018 14:11:44 GMT -5
2 arms have been giving up hard contact in Thornburg and Workman. Maybe they are the outliers but they are included in the bullpen, that's why I made the claim about the hard contact in the bullpen comment. Also, if your bullpen can't be trusted to throw strikes in close games, then what do you really have here? Who are you going to trust come playoff time? There is a difference between a season bullpen and a playoff bullpen, and Dave Dombrowski has even been quoted to agree with that. The facts are on the table. They can't throw strikes half the time and this is the bullpen you want come playoff time? Nope give me Price, Wright, or maybe Lakins in the bullpen. Someone who can throw strikes outside of Kimbrel, Barnes, and maybe Brasier/Kelly come October. Haha, you didn't disappoint! Okay, I'm gonna do my best to follow this. So when you said they have a "hard contact giving up bullpen," of course you didn't mean the bullpen in general - you just meant one back-of-the-bullpen guy and another guy who's pitched 10 innings (both of whom are about average for hard contact %, but whatever). So we'll set that aside. And when you said "the bullpen is a mess" and the Red Sox have a "weak bullpen," you didn't mean they're not among the best in the league by any cumulative stat, whether it's WAR, ERA, WPA, or anything else. You also weren't talking about K rate (6th best in the majors), HRs (tied for best) or HR/FB rate (2nd best), which might be considered relevant. You were really only talking about walk rate. So I guess my question for you is: why do you think a bullpen should be judged solely on its BB rate, and not by any other stat that is meant to represent overall pitching quality (WAR, WPA, etc.), even though those stats themselves incorporate BB rate, as well as a bunch of other relevant information? From your other posts, it looks like you think BB rate is uniquely predictive of how a bullpen will perform in the playoffs. That would be interesting if it's true. (By "this bullpen is a mess," maybe you meant "this bullpen is very good, but projects to do less well in the playoffs.") Do you have any evidence of that? On the face of it, I'd be inclined to think FIP/ERA/WPA would be better predictors for playoff performance than the single BB/9 stat, but maybe I'm wrong. Was in the car for a short period and heard that Kimbrel was 13-17 in one run save opportunities. Haven’t verified this and it’s obvious that most blown saves would be of the one run variety, but that seems like a big percentage for that situation.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2018 14:36:02 GMT -5
The Yankees should exceed 100 wins with room to spare. Their pace is 101 right now. Have you looked at their schedule the rest of the month? It's a joke. They were begging to lose yesterday's game but the White Sox just wouldn't let them. The White Sox actually made Sonny Gray look good. It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees get hot and win say 20 of 27. I do think the race will get closer. The Sox have a tougher schedule and at some point they may actually act human for a little bit. If you forced me to guess, I'll say the Sox win about 108 or 109 and the Yankees about 104. So would 104 count as "room to spare"? Yea, could see them getting hot. Could also see them continuing to be a .500 team for a bit (20-20 in last 40) as they are injured and their pitching is a mess. They also tend to play down to their competition. I see them as a dangerous team that is playing like junk. It’s possible they win 104 but I’d put a higher probability they are under 100 wins. Edit: any way my point was the way in which you seemed confident the Sox would fall off and the Yankees would pick things up like it was the probability of the outcomes. Anything can certainly hwpp I'm not "confident" of anything. I'm opinionated and often wrong. I'm just a believer in the law of averages even though it doesn't always average out, nor average out the way you expect. Just about everything went wrong for the Yankees in the Red Sox series. They had a shot at winning 3 of those 4 games. They blew a 4-0 lead in the 1st game, were one big hit away in the 3rd game, and totally blew the 4th game. When things are going right for the Yankees, they'd win those games. And when things aren't going so right for the Sox, they'd lose at least two of those games. I just think the Yankees are going to get blazing hot and cut into the lead. I'd be surprised if the Sox won by a dozen games. I can see the Yankees cutting the lead to about 5 making people nervous. Their schedule is a cupcake schedule. They're due for a big hot streak. It's also possible I'm underestimating the impact of the loss of Aaron Judge, too, or perhaps Chapman's knee is causing more issues than we're aware of. He's had a meltdown against the Mets and against the Sox. I don't know if he was "rusty" as Michael Kay said he was. I was hoping that was the issue Kimbrel was having last Saturday except he's been scary his last 5 times out. Kay did make a good point - that Sanchez will have a helluva time catching Britton who bounces everything in the dirt. As far as the Sox go, they could lose 7 of 10 or go 4-6. It seems that even if you play .500 for a stretch - say 10 - 10 you lose ground in the standings. Everything has gone the Sox way pretty much. They're due for some regression. They're human. And if so I prefer it now rather than in October. If the Red Sox would look to play .700 ball the rest of the way and kick butt in October, that's fine with me. I don't mind if they prefer to defy the law of averages. As if is, if they play .600 ball the rest of the way which is quite excellent they'd cool their pace from 114 wins to an actual 109 wins. It's that hard to keep up .700. And I am that fascinated and amazed with the ridiculous fact that they are at .702. It's just such a hard pace to keep up. My gut feeling is that the Yankees will make another hard charge at the Sox because of Sox regression and the Yankees cupcake schedule and the Sox will hang on because they simply have IT this year. Can't define IT but you know IT when you see IT. They just have a way of prevailing when they need to, some how some way. I just hope that carries into the post season. I could be mistaken. I'd prefer not to worry and see the Sox blow the Yanks out by double digits. Guess we'll see.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2018 14:36:40 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox will win 125 or so and the Yankees will miss the playoffs. So is that 125 wins including the post-season or excluding the post-season?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2018 14:54:06 GMT -5
Guess the "high end" relief market thing hasn't been working out too great.
Britton has had his struggles with NY.
I'm not sure how Soria is doing. I know some don't regard him as "higher end"
But Kelvin Herrera is and now he's on the 10 day DL with right rotator cuff impingement. Guess we now know why his performance with Washington hasn't been as good as his performance with KC.
Guess the Sox dodged a bullet here.
At this point the only reliever that I hope comes the Sox way via waivers is Tony Watson - and that won't happen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2018 15:11:17 GMT -5
Guess the "high end" relief market thing hasn't been working out too great. Britton has had his struggles with NY. I'm not sure how Soria is doing. I know some don't regard him as "higher end" But Kelvin Herrera is and now he's on the 10 day DL with right rotator cuff impingement. Guess we now know why his performance with Washington hasn't been as good as his performance with KC. Guess the Sox dodged a bullet here. At this point the only reliever that I hope comes the Sox way via waivers is Tony Watson - and that won't happen. Soria hasn't allowed a run in 5 games so far.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 15:12:49 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox will win 125 or so and the Yankees will miss the playoffs. So is that 125 wins including the post-season or excluding the post-season? 136 including the postseason. That would leave them 99 games over .500 including the playoffs.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 15:14:55 GMT -5
Guess the "high end" relief market thing hasn't been working out too great. Britton has had his struggles with NY. I'm not sure how Soria is doing. I know some don't regard him as "higher end" But Kelvin Herrera is and now he's on the 10 day DL with right rotator cuff impingement. Guess we now know why his performance with Washington hasn't been as good as his performance with KC. Guess the Sox dodged a bullet here. At this point the only reliever that I hope comes the Sox way via waivers is Tony Watson - and that won't happen. Soria hasn't allowed a run in 5 games so far. With a 5.28 xFIP.
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Post by h11233 on Aug 8, 2018 15:35:56 GMT -5
Yea, could see them getting hot. Could also see them continuing to be a .500 team for a bit (20-20 in last 40) as they are injured and their pitching is a mess. They also tend to play down to their competition. I see them as a dangerous team that is playing like junk. It’s possible they win 104 but I’d put a higher probability they are under 100 wins. Edit: any way my point was the way in which you seemed confident the Sox would fall off and the Yankees would pick things up like it was the probability of the outcomes. Anything can certainly hwpp I'm not "confident" of anything. I'm opinionated and often wrong. I'm just a believer in the law of averages even though it doesn't always average out, nor average out the way you expect. Just about everything went wrong for the Yankees in the Red Sox series. They had a shot at winning 3 of those 4 games. They blew a 4-0 lead in the 1st game, were one big hit away in the 3rd game, and totally blew the 4th game. When things are going right for the Yankees, they'd win those games. And when things aren't going so right for the Sox, they'd lose at least two of those games. I just think the Yankees are going to get blazing hot and cut into the lead. I'd be surprised if the Sox won by a dozen games. I can see the Yankees cutting the lead to about 5 making people nervous. Their schedule is a cupcake schedule. They're due for a big hot streak. It's also possible I'm underestimating the impact of the loss of Aaron Judge, too, or perhaps Chapman's knee is causing more issues than we're aware of. He's had a meltdown against the Mets and against the Sox. I don't know if he was "rusty" as Michael Kay said he was. I was hoping that was the issue Kimbrel was having last Saturday except he's been scary his last 5 times out. Kay did make a good point - that Sanchez will have a helluva time catching Britton who bounces everything in the dirt. As far as the Sox go, they could lose 7 of 10 or go 4-6. It seems that even if you play .500 for a stretch - say 10 - 10 you lose ground in the standings. Everything has gone the Sox way pretty much. They're due for some regression. They're human. And if so I prefer it now rather than in October. If the Red Sox would look to play .700 ball the rest of the way and kick butt in October, that's fine with me. I don't mind if they prefer to defy the law of averages. As if is, if they play .600 ball the rest of the way which is quite excellent they'd cool their pace from 114 wins to an actual 109 wins. It's that hard to keep up .700. And I am that fascinated and amazed with the ridiculous fact that they are at .702. It's just such a hard pace to keep up. My gut feeling is that the Yankees will make another hard charge at the Sox because of Sox regression and the Yankees cupcake schedule and the Sox will hang on because they simply have IT this year. Can't define IT but you know IT when you see IT. They just have a way of prevailing when they need to, some how some way. I just hope that carries into the post season. I could be mistaken. I'd prefer not to worry and see the Sox blow the Yanks out by double digits. Guess we'll see. NYY has had 2 stretched where they went 17-1 from 4/21-5/9 and 17-4 from 5/25-6/21. Aside from that, they're 36-37. They've gone 20-20 in their last 40 games since that last streak ending 6/21. Their opponents in those last 40 games include 17 games against BAL/KC/CHW/NYM/TOR... So not really any more difficult than their remaining schedule, which includes a west coast trip to face OAK/SEA and 6 games against the Sox. Judge wasn't injured until 7/26, so you can't even blame it on that... but they'll be without Judge for at least the rest of this month. For comparison, if you take our the Sox 2 best steaks (17-1 4/2-4/20 and 24-5 7/2-present), they're still 39-28, a .582 win%... The Cubs have a .584 win% for the year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2018 15:56:57 GMT -5
Soria hasn't allowed a run in 5 games so far. With a 5.28 xFIP. I have to ask if you looked at his numbers do you really think that makes any sense? It's really a case of how useless certain advanced stats can be in small sample sizes. His FIP of 3.38 makes a lot more sense given his numbers 4 1/3 innings 2 hits, no HRs, 3 walks and 4 strikeouts for a 1.154 WHIP.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 16:03:38 GMT -5
I have to ask if you looked at his numbers do you really think that makes any sense? It's really a case of how useless certain advanced stats can be in small sample sizes. His FIP of 3.38 makes a lot more sense given his numbers 4 1/3 innings 2 hits, no HRs, 3 walks and 4 strikeouts for a 1.154 WHIP. Yep, I know. It's about as meaningless as saying 0 runs in 5 games. Joe Kelly has given up 3 hits and 1 walk and 4 strikeouts in 5 IP in his last 5 games for a 0.80 WHIP.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 8, 2018 16:15:00 GMT -5
Just want to point out that the Sox are pretty good. Are they perfect? No but who is and can anybody really make a case that there will be a better team going into the playoffs?
Instead of focusing on what could go wrong how about what could go right. Like the Sox are 80-34 with Devers and JBJ being mostly off this season, they could catch fire. Or the fact that they have such a lead they can rest Sale and Price to be fresh for the playoffs. Or with so many guys coming back from the DL.......
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2018 16:19:48 GMT -5
I have to ask if you looked at his numbers do you really think that makes any sense? It's really a case of how useless certain advanced stats can be in small sample sizes. His FIP of 3.38 makes a lot more sense given his numbers 4 1/3 innings 2 hits, no HRs, 3 walks and 4 strikeouts for a 1.154 WHIP. Yep, I know. It's about as meaningless as saying 0 runs in 5 games. Joe Kelly has given up 3 hits and 1 walk and 4 strikeouts in 5 IP in his last 5 games for a 0.80 WHIP. Zero runs in 5 games better describes his pitching than xFIP of 5.28. Like I said before Joe Kelly is always great until he's not. Soria is a much more consistent pitcher, Joe Kelly is up and down.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 8, 2018 16:20:48 GMT -5
The Yankees are on pace to win 101 games. The Sox 114. But your Sox have a new range for you or 105-110 and the Yankees will win 100 with room to spare? Houston’s on pace for 103 The Yankees should exceed 100 wins with room to spare. Their pace is 101 right now. Have you looked at their schedule the rest of the month? It's a joke. They were begging to lose yesterday's game but the White Sox just wouldn't let them. The White Sox actually made Sonny Gray look good. It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees get hot and win say 20 of 27. I do think the race will get closer. The Sox have a tougher schedule and at some point they may actually act human for a little bit. If you forced me to guess, I'll say the Sox win about 108 or 109 and the Yankees about 104. So would 104 count as "room to spare"? I agree, I think it will get a bit closer but I also think we will clinch the division before the final 3 game series with the Yankees, and will finish with a lead of 5 or so games.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2018 16:23:53 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Fangraphs projections (which take into account, among other things, strength of schedule, injuries and projected future performance (as opposed to simply extrapolating year-to-date performance)) has the Red Sox ending up at 107 wins and the Yankees and Astros both ending up with 102 wins. They project the Red Sox to play at a .568 clip the rest of the way, compared to .615 for the Astros and .636 for the Yankees.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 16:29:42 GMT -5
Just tallied all of the total numbers for the bullpen against all 3 teams of Houston, Oakland, and New York in 2018. Here's the numbers total against New York- 38 1/3 innings. 39 hits. 23 WALKS!!!! 27 EARNED RUNS!!! (around 6.30 ERA!!!!) Here's the tallies against all three of Oakland, New York, and Houston. 64 2/3 innings. 61 hits. 34 WALKS!!!! 36 EARNED RUNS!!! (around a 5 ERA!!!). Okay I looked up the pitching logs in each game. Haley and Walden threw for 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees. They gave up 11 hits, 4 walks, 7 earned runs. Okay so let's just remove their numbers altogether because they weren't throwing high leverage innings and they stink. Here's the tallies against the Yankees- 32 2/3 innings. 28 hits. 19 WALKS!!! 20 earned runs!!!!! Around a 5.50 ERA!!!! Here's the tallies total removing Walden and Haley against all 3 teams. 59 innings. 50 hits. 30 WALKS!!!! 29 earned runs. 4.42 ERA. Tell me this bullpen isn't suspect, especially against the better teams in the AL. Go ahead and throw your season stats at me as a whole. You'd be lying to yourself if you didn't question this bullpen in the playoffs. I think you're being a little disingenuous, maybe it's unintentional. First, you show the numbers vs. NYY individually because it looks bad, but you don't show individual numbers vs OAK/HOU. They have about a 3ERA vs those teams, which isn't bad at all. Secondly, you don't mention any numbers against SEA, who they've been pretty good against. Third, you were willing to take out the Walden/Haley numbers, but not other people who will either not be in the playoff bullpen, or will be strictly mop up duty... and a few of their outings really skew the numbers. Specifically: Velazquez and Hembree had 3 horrific outings vs NYY early in the season that account for 3.1IP and 8ER. Take those out also, and the bullpen has a sub-4ERA vs NYY. Of the guys that figure to be important in the postseason bullpen, Barnes had a couple bad outings vs NYY early in the season (4/11 and 5/9) and Kimbrel was also bad on 5/9 and of course we all remember what happened the other day. Other than that, the key guys have been stellar. Seattle isn't a playoff team at the moment. Velazquez isn't in your playoff bullpen, but Hembree is. That and the fact that Hembree and Velazquez have been a part of this bullpen all season long. You just can't take those numbers out when you factor that all in. It doesn't certainly excuse the walks which are horrifying also.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2018 16:34:51 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Fangraphs projections (which take into account, among other things, strength of schedule, injuries and projected future performance (as opposed to simply extrapolating year-to-date performance)) has the Red Sox ending up at 107 wins and the Yankees and Astros both ending up with 102 wins. They project the Red Sox to play at a .568 clip the rest of the way, compared to .615 for the Astros and .636 for the Yankees. 538 Sports projects the Red Sox to win 110, Astros 102 and Yankees 101. They also have the Red Sox with a 23% chance to win the WS, which may be at a season high.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2018 16:39:14 GMT -5
I do think that it's a little disingenuous to look solely at their walk numbers, which are admittedly mediocre (17th best BB% among all relievers), while not mentioning their strikeout (5th best K% among all relievers) and home run (2nd best HR/9 among all reliever) numbers. Yes, they walk a lot of hitters, but they also strike them out and limit home runs, which altogether makes them a well above-average bullpen (4th by ERA- and 5th by xFIP-).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 16:39:57 GMT -5
2 arms have been giving up hard contact in Thornburg and Workman. Maybe they are the outliers but they are included in the bullpen, that's why I made the claim about the hard contact in the bullpen comment. Also, if your bullpen can't be trusted to throw strikes in close games, then what do you really have here? Who are you going to trust come playoff time? There is a difference between a season bullpen and a playoff bullpen, and Dave Dombrowski has even been quoted to agree with that. The facts are on the table. They can't throw strikes half the time and this is the bullpen you want come playoff time? Nope give me Price, Wright, or maybe Lakins in the bullpen. Someone who can throw strikes outside of Kimbrel, Barnes, and maybe Brasier/Kelly come October. Haha, you didn't disappoint! Okay, I'm gonna do my best to follow this. So when you said they have a "hard contact giving up bullpen," of course you didn't mean the bullpen in general - you just meant one back-of-the-bullpen guy and another guy who's pitched 10 innings (both of whom are about average for hard contact %, but whatever). So we'll set that aside. And when you said "the bullpen is a mess" and the Red Sox have a "weak bullpen," you didn't mean they're not among the best in the league by any cumulative stat, whether it's WAR, ERA, WPA, or anything else. You also weren't talking about K rate (6th best in the majors), HRs (tied for best) or HR/FB rate (2nd best), which might be considered relevant. You were really only talking about walk rate. So I guess my question for you is: why do you think a bullpen should be judged solely on its BB rate, and not by any other stat that is meant to represent overall pitching quality (WAR, WPA, etc.), even though those stats themselves incorporate BB rate, as well as a bunch of other relevant information? From your other posts, it looks like you think BB rate is uniquely predictive of how a bullpen will perform in the playoffs. That would be interesting if it's true. (By "this bullpen is a mess," maybe you meant "this bullpen is very good, but projects to do less well in the playoffs.") Do you have any evidence of that? On the face of it, I'd be inclined to think FIP/ERA/WPA would be better predictors for playoff performance than the single BB/9 stat, but maybe I'm wrong. The playoffs are all about who can get on base, with making the least amount of contact as possible. Usually pitching dominates in the playoffs. Everyone is striking out. No one is getting on base. Walking people could have a huge effect on what a outcome of a series looks like or it might not effect it all. It is completely random, but it can effect a series *if it is that bad* (which it is). This team has the talent to overcome these weaknesses if they put a starter in the back innings and their starters go deep into games with the offense providing enough offense. This bullpen is a mess right now though if you look at the current roles past Kimbrel and Barnes. Kelly might be coming back to life, but he's been irrelevant for 2 months now. Brasier looks good, but he just got here a few weeks ago. Thornburg is inconsistent. Workman is a low leverage arm, so is Hembree along with Velazquez.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2018 16:46:38 GMT -5
I do think that it's a little disingenuous to look solely at their walk numbers, which are admittedly mediocre (17th best BB% among all relievers), while not mentioning their strikeout (5th best K% among all relievers) and home run (2nd best HR/9 among all reliever) numbers. Yes, they walk a lot of hitters, but they also strike them out and limit home runs, which altogether makes them a well above-average bullpen (4th by ERA- and 5th by xFIP-). To put it another way, Fangraphs' depth charts projections (which take into account, among other things, the current depth chart and projected future performance on a player-by-player basis) rates the Red Sox as having the seventh-best bullpen going forward, with Kimbrel adding a lot of value and each of Kelly, Barnes and Hembree adding a little value.
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