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8/7-8/9 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by manfred on Aug 8, 2018 21:53:45 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 31m31 minutes ago Red Sox's Brian Johnson threw 98 pitches, 67 strikes (68 percent strikes). He mixed in 43 curveballs (seven swings-and-misses), 40 four-seamers (five swings-and-misses), seven sliders, six changeups and two two-seamers. When Sale returns, he should get that 5th spot over Pomeranz (Who got 3 swings and misses against that same lineup yesterday. THREE!). He has better stuff and he means more for the future of the team (Pomeranz is leaving after the season and BJ has more years of control) Seems like a no-brainer to me. I swear for a second I thought you meant Sale should get the number five. That would be quite a staff.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2018 22:07:51 GMT -5
Brasier K/9 7.24 Hembree K/9 12.13 Like James Dunne likes to say "We love our relieverstill they start giving up runs" O homeruns for Brasier. 48.6% ground ball rate. Heath Hembree 43.5% groundball rate with a 37.2% groundball rate in his career. Hembree has given up 1 homerun per nine innings also with a 1.20 HR/9 innings in his career. Hembrees strikeout rate is nice, but Brasier is showing a propensity to giving up fewer hard hit balls compared to Hembree. 26% hard contact % for Hembree vs. 40% for Brasier in a tiny sample. So... no. But the real question is: what about their walk rates??? EDIT: That 26% is 20th best in the majors for all guys with 30+ IP, by the way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2018 22:18:30 GMT -5
O homeruns for Brasier. 48.6% ground ball rate. Heath Hembree 43.5% groundball rate with a 37.2% groundball rate in his career. Hembree has given up 1 homerun per nine innings also with a 1.20 HR/9 innings in his career. Hembrees strikeout rate is nice, but Brasier is showing a propensity to giving up fewer hard hit balls compared to Hembree. 26% hard contact % for Hembree vs. 40% for Brasier in a tiny sample. So... no. But the real question is: what about their walk rates??? EDIT: That 26% is 20th best in the majors for all guys with 30+ IP, by the way. I think there's regression with Hembree coming, but good point on the hard contact percentage stat. Still, the groundball rate and lack of homeruns is intriguing for Brasier.
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cheers
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Post by cheers on Aug 8, 2018 22:43:21 GMT -5
When Sale returns, he should get that 5th spot over Pomeranz (Who got 3 swings and misses against that same lineup yesterday. THREE!). He has better stuff and he means more for the future of the team (Pomeranz is leaving after the season and BJ has more years of control) Seems like a no-brainer to me. Call me crazy but Johnson looks like a league average #3 right now, not ceiling. Pomeranz looks like a borderline #5. The Sox might be able to get a lottery ticket with a waiver trade. CRAZY! Feel better? Pomeranz looks like a borderline #5 on a team that is trying super hard to lose 110 games. I liked Johnson's start tonight through 6 though. And Johnson is not a legit #3 starter, so you are still crazy. You asked.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 8, 2018 22:55:02 GMT -5
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 8, 2018 22:59:35 GMT -5
Anyone else feel old hearing Betts refer to someone else as a kid?
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 8, 2018 23:06:31 GMT -5
Anyone else feel old hearing Betts refer to someone else as a kid? That kid has a sweet swing and he hasnt scratched the surface really. Hoping he becomes what they used to call a professional hitter. If he does, he'll be a joy to watch too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2018 23:58:20 GMT -5
So at least the Sox now should manage to finish at least at .500 for the season as they won their 81st game so if they lose their remaining 47 games they have that going for them. The Sox could only pick up 2 percentage points with that win. They go from .702 to .704 and are now a whopping 47 games above .500 (or about half a game above .700). Brian Johnson pitched really well until he ran out of gas. He has been pretty impressive. I appreciated Cora in the post-game interview acknowledging that a lot of people (myself included) didn't want him to bring Johnson out for the 7th when it seemed kind of obvious that he was tiring in the 6th. His explanation made sense. He felt, given what the pen has had to do the last few games, that the extra three outs was worth whatever runs he gives up (within reason). I was ok with that. He's thinking long-term and was willing to gamble a few runs with a huge lead. I appreciated the explanation anyways. It was good to see Raffy Devers back. He swung the bat well. Look forward to seeing him and Kinsler in the same lineup so that they can bat 6th and 7th and we can actually have a game with neither Holt or Nunez starting. The pen did the job in the 8th and 9th although they made me nervous. In Brasier's case it really wasn't his fault. He had to get 4 outs because of Xander's error. Too bad the ChiSox were exactly what the Yankees needed or else the Red Sox would have a double digit lead. Thanks for nothing Chicago. Hope the Red Sox kick the crap out of them in Chicago.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2018 0:39:09 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 3h3 hours ago
Alex Cora says he'll make a decision tomorrow on whether Brian Johnson will make another start. That means Drew Pomeranz, too.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2018 0:40:09 GMT -5
Anyone else feel old hearing Betts refer to someone else as a kid? That kid has a sweet swing and he hasnt scratched the surface really. Hoping he becomes what they used to call a professional hitter. If he does, he'll be a joy to watch too. Tom Caron Verified account @tomcaron 3h3 hours ago A little perspective on Rafael Devers, who returned to the lineup with a double and his 16th HR. -He’s the youngest player on the #RedSox -He’d be the youngest player on the @pawsox -He’d be the youngest player on the @portlandseadogs . . . At the start of the Season, he was younger than anyone at Salem.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2018 1:34:13 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 31m31 minutes ago Red Sox's Brian Johnson threw 98 pitches, 67 strikes (68 percent strikes). He mixed in 43 curveballs (seven swings-and-misses), 40 four-seamers (five swings-and-misses), seven sliders, six changeups and two two-seamers. When Sale returns, he should get that 5th spot over Pomeranz (Who got 3 swings and misses against that same lineup yesterday. THREE!). He has better stuff and he means more for the future of the team (Pomeranz is leaving after the season and BJ has more years of control) Seems like a no-brainer to me. They put Sale in Pomeranz's spot, leaving them the flexibility of following him with either Johnson or Pomeranz (with an extra day of rest).
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 3h3 hours ago Alex Cora says he'll make a decision tomorrow on whether Brian Johnson will make another start. That means Drew Pomeranz, too. Translation: I haven't yet told Pomeranz he's put of the rotation and I don't want him reading it in the papers.
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2018 2:01:35 GMT -5
O homeruns for Brasier. 48.6% ground ball rate. Heath Hembree 43.5% groundball rate with a 37.2% groundball rate in his career. Hembree has given up 1 homerun per nine innings also with a 1.20 HR/9 innings in his career. Hembrees strikeout rate is nice, but Brasier is showing a propensity to giving up fewer hard hit balls compared to Hembree. 26% hard contact % for Hembree vs. 40% for Brasier in a tiny sample. So... no. But the real question is: what about their walk rates??? EDIT: That 26% is 20th best in the majors for all guys with 30+ IP, by the way. Hard% is a flawed stat. They have a separate hardness scale for liners, fly balls, and grounders. I've noted that the point at which grounders get graded hard is lower than the common-sense usage. To me, a hard grounder is one hit on one or two hops that will rocket or at least scoot by any fielder not very close by, and if the play is made, you give the fielder a little bit of credit for quick hands. In reality, any solid grounder is graded "hard," and a "hard" grounder hit more or less at a fielder is absolutely routine. A majority of "hard" grounders seem to be outs.
So, you first have to look at LD% vs GB%, and only then apply the Hard%, and even then, with a lot of skepticism.
I just read about this recently and it was a revelation, because I've done all sorts of regressions with Hard% as a component and was continually puzzled as to how weak it was. For instance, in my BABIP predictors, it keeps showing up as a way smaller factor than expected.
Coming into today, Brasier had allowed an expected .233 // .367 and Hembree .196 // .350.
And there's a big SSS problem in Brasier's xSA, because I'm pretty sure (based on the stats before and after the outing) that the great JBJ catch in CF was a Statcast HR, since it would have been out in most parks if not hit to dead center. I think there's an element of skill involved in getting guys to hit the ball to the big park of the field, and if horizontal direction were properly included in xSA I think Brasier's the same as Hembree or a little better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2018 6:10:18 GMT -5
Fun fact: from June 26 to July 31 the Sox' usual cleanup hitter, Mitch Moreland, hit .171 / .253 / .224 in 21 GS. You can tell it really hurt the team because they only went 16-5 in those starts, versus 7-2 with him on the bench.
(.762 vs. .778!)
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2018 6:59:39 GMT -5
It doesn't take much careful comparing. There is a 2.31 ERA difference between them. Also, because of Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovoldi, E-Rod, and Wright, you don't need either of them to start in the postseason. You also have to move 2 more to the bullpen, I'd go with Price (because of postseason struggles) and Wright. You were the one who said that they'd place 10 times as much emphasis on a 3.92 ERA than a 4.00 ERA. Why do you think they'd be that dumb? Same reasons stores price things at $3.99 instead of $4.00. It's not dumb, it's just human.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 6:59:41 GMT -5
Thanks to Eric for explaining the hard contact percentage stat and it's flaws. I had no argument against it, but after he was explaining it, I'll take most hard hit groundballs versus a fly ball pitcher.
To me, and this is clearly a eye ball test thing, Brasier lives more on the corners. Hembree is a nice north to south pitcher that leaves too many hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Hembree has done this less this year because he has set a career high in groundball rates, strikeout rates, and homerun per nine rates, but I do think that'll regress more back to his career norms.
I know I'm probably going to get mauled on here for saying this, but Hembree was the worst pitcher in MLB in letting inherited runners to score last year. This year he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. Maybe that speaks more to the randomness of that stat, but that's why I worry about Hembree with runners on base everytime, regardless of his progression this year. He's having a career year, but who knows how long that is really going to last. Hembree has shown to really regress big at times in the past. I think people tend to forget that with his best season here so far.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2018 7:01:25 GMT -5
You were the one who said that they'd place 10 times as much emphasis on a 3.92 ERA than a 4.00 ERA. Why do you think they'd be that dumb? Same reasons stores price things at $3.99 instead of $4.00. It's not dumb, it's just human. You think the Red Sox cannot overcome that? Why are we even talking about this? I can guarantee you that no one making decisions about the Red Sox are looking at ERA.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2018 7:04:03 GMT -5
Same reasons stores price things at $3.99 instead of $4.00. It's not dumb, it's just human. You think the Red Sox cannot overcome that? Why are we even talking about this? I can guarantee you that no one making decisions about the Red Sox are looking at ERA.True.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2018 7:50:30 GMT -5
Brian Johnson is pretty good, and it makes me happy.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 7:53:07 GMT -5
When Sale returns, he should get that 5th spot over Pomeranz (Who got 3 swings and misses against that same lineup yesterday. THREE!). He has better stuff and he means more for the future of the team (Pomeranz is leaving after the season and BJ has more years of control) Seems like a no-brainer to me. They put Sale in Pomeranz's spot, leaving them the flexibility of following him with either Johnson or Pomeranz (with an extra day of rest).
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 3h3 hours ago Alex Cora says he'll make a decision tomorrow on whether Brian Johnson will make another start. That means Drew Pomeranz, too. Translation: I haven't yet told Pomeranz he's put of the rotation and I don't want him reading it in the papers. It makes a ton of sense that Johnson makes the start on Monday. National league ballpark, where Brian Johnson can hit and start. Swihart is also eligible to come off the DL on this day and will probably be activated to catch Johnson. Swihart has been Johnson's personal catcher since he's been starting really. This is one of the few things that have irked me about Cora this year. He said no personal catchers this year and he we are in August with personal catchers. That being said, if Johnson isn't starting on Monday against the Phillies, then this team will have a made a really bad brain fart imo.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 9, 2018 8:06:45 GMT -5
Brian Johnson is pretty good, and it makes me happy. I remember sitting close to the 1st base dugout during a Futures at Fenway game and seeing/hearing him get hit in the head by a line drive. It was awful. He has gone through a lot, including injuries, depression, getting carjacked, etc.I could not be happier to see him experience success in the majors.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 9, 2018 8:15:05 GMT -5
Heart in throat watching Devers sprint full bore several times coming off the hammy....
Thought he looked a little slimmer too.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 9, 2018 8:33:41 GMT -5
Couple of interesting counting stats.
Red Sox as a team have committed 55 errors, Devers has made 20 of those BUT it is an improvement in his fielding percentage from last season. Kid is apparently a hard worker on both sides of the ball and with his obviously good hand/eye coordination may ode well for continued improvement. (Also upgrade from Nunez to Kinsler at 2B speaks well for the team's overall D.)
Houston has a ridiculous ERA edge, first in the league at 3.00, Sox are 2nd at 3.46 BUT the Sox league leading offense averages 0.44 runs per game more than Houston. Watching those 2 teams play each other could be as good as it gets.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 8:35:51 GMT -5
Couple of interesting counting stats. Red Sox as a team have committed 55 errors, Devers has made 20 of those BUT it is an improvement in his fielding percentage from last season. Kid is apparently a hard worker on both sides of the ball and with his obviously good hand/eye coordination may ode well for continued improvement. (Also upgrade from Nunez to Kinsler at 2B speaks well for the team's overall D.) Houston has a ridiculous ERA edge, first in the league at 3.00, Sox are 2nd at 3.46 BUT the Sox league leading offense averages 0.44 runs per game more than Houston. Watching those 2 teams play each other could be as good as it gets. 2 best teams in baseball. No doubt.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 9, 2018 8:44:52 GMT -5
Call me crazy but Johnson looks like a league average #3 right now, not ceiling. Pomeranz looks like a borderline #5. The Sox might be able to get a lottery ticket with a waiver trade. CRAZY! Feel better? Pomeranz looks like a borderline #5 on a team that is trying super hard to lose 110 games. I liked Johnson's start tonight through 6 though. And Johnson is not a legit #3 starter, so you are still crazy. You asked. Johnson is a good solid number 5 starter. He’ll probably be out of our rotation when Erod comes back. Wonder what we do with him in the offseason if we can resign Eovaldi. Start him out as a swing man?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 8:58:50 GMT -5
CRAZY! Feel better? Pomeranz looks like a borderline #5 on a team that is trying super hard to lose 110 games. I liked Johnson's start tonight through 6 though. And Johnson is not a legit #3 starter, so you are still crazy. You asked. Johnson is a good solid number 5 starter. He’ll probably be out of our rotation when Erod comes back. Wonder what we do with him in the offseason if we can resign Eovaldi. Start him out as a swing man? The Sox could go to a 6 man rotation and would probably be best suited to do that in September if the Sox push Eduardo's rehab and time table for the beginning of September to join the big league club. If you're resigning Eovaldi, then you're probably trading Porcello and Johnson/Wright are probably competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. That's what I'd do at least.
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