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8/7-8/9 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Aug 9, 2018 9:15:14 GMT -5
Thanks to Eric for explaining the hard contact percentage stat and it's flaws. I had no argument against it, but after he was explaining it, I'll take most hard hit groundballs versus a fly ball pitcher. To me, and this is clearly a eye ball test thing, Brasier lives more on the corners. Hembree is a nice north to south pitcher that leaves too many hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Hembree has done this less this year because he has set a career high in groundball rates, strikeout rates, and homerun per nine rates, but I do think that'll regress more back to his career norms. I know I'm probably going to get mauled on here for saying this, but Hembree was the worst pitcher in MLB in letting inherited runners to score last year. This year he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. Maybe that speaks more to the randomness of that stat, but that's why I worry about Hembree with runners on base everytime, regardless of his progression this year. He's having a career year, but who knows how long that is really going to last. Hembree has shown to really regress big at times in the past. I think people tend to forget that with his best season here so far. Interesting points about Hembree, and seems reasonable enough to expect him to regress (though I don't really share that expectation; it seems to me there's been slow but steady improvement with him over the last couple of years). On the other hand, Brasier is 31 years old and has all of 22 major league innings under his belt, so I'm not gonna be too quick to shift my faith over to him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 9:25:07 GMT -5
Thanks to Eric for explaining the hard contact percentage stat and it's flaws. I had no argument against it, but after he was explaining it, I'll take most hard hit groundballs versus a fly ball pitcher. To me, and this is clearly a eye ball test thing, Brasier lives more on the corners. Hembree is a nice north to south pitcher that leaves too many hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Hembree has done this less this year because he has set a career high in groundball rates, strikeout rates, and homerun per nine rates, but I do think that'll regress more back to his career norms. I know I'm probably going to get mauled on here for saying this, but Hembree was the worst pitcher in MLB in letting inherited runners to score last year. This year he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. Maybe that speaks more to the randomness of that stat, but that's why I worry about Hembree with runners on base everytime, regardless of his progression this year. He's having a career year, but who knows how long that is really going to last. Hembree has shown to really regress big at times in the past. I think people tend to forget that with his best season here so far. Interesting points about Hembree, and seems reasonable enough to expect him to regress (though I don't really share that expectation; it seems to me there's been slow but steady improvement with him over the last couple of years). On the other hand, Brasier is 31 years old and has all of 22 major league innings under his belt, so I'm not gonna be too quick to shift my faith over to him. Yeah, it's really just a hope for Brasier for me. He looks good and passes the eye test so far, but I admit Brasier could also regress velocity wise and results wise in his first full year back in the big leagues at some point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2018 9:37:47 GMT -5
Devers will sit out the final: Indeed, Wednesday’s offensive deluge for Devers wasn’t exactly a flash in the pan, rather him picking up where he left off. Over the last 37 games, the third baseman is hitting .280 with 10 doubles, seven home runs, 26 RBIs and 23 runs scored. Given the nature of Devers’ injury and the fact that Rogers Centre is a turf surface, manager Alex Cora said he will not be in the lineup for Thursday’s series finale. Read more at: nesn.com/2018/08/red-sox-notes-rafael-devers-disabled-list-stint-didnt-slow-him-down/
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2018 9:49:16 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb 31m31 minutes ago Red Sox's Brian Johnson threw 98 pitches, 67 strikes (68 percent strikes). He mixed in 43 curveballs (seven swings-and-misses), 40 four-seamers (five swings-and-misses), seven sliders, six changeups and two two-seamers. I'm still not really buying Johnson as a mid rotation guy because I just don't think he has the stuff, but this is worth keeping an eye on. If he can continue to use the curveball as something close to his primary pitch and continue to have it not get hit, then maybe he really can exceed his perceived ceiling. He certainly seems like a guy who will benefit from the "hide the fastball" style of pitching. To be honest, I don't think it's all that sustainable. Still, it's great to see him succeed as a major leaguer after everything he's been through, even if it doesn't last all that long.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2018 9:51:01 GMT -5
Devers will sit out the final: Indeed, Wednesday’s offensive deluge for Devers wasn’t exactly a flash in the pan, rather him picking up where he left off. Over the last 37 games, the third baseman is hitting .280 with 10 doubles, seven home runs, 26 RBIs and 23 runs scored. Given the nature of Devers’ injury and the fact that Rogers Centre is a turf surface, manager Alex Cora said he will not be in the lineup for Thursday’s series finale.Read more at: nesn.com/2018/08/red-sox-notes-rafael-devers-disabled-list-stint-didnt-slow-him-down/There's like 0% chance Farrell makes the same decision, right?
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 9, 2018 10:06:26 GMT -5
Devers will sit out the final: Indeed, Wednesday’s offensive deluge for Devers wasn’t exactly a flash in the pan, rather him picking up where he left off. Over the last 37 games, the third baseman is hitting .280 with 10 doubles, seven home runs, 26 RBIs and 23 runs scored. Given the nature of Devers’ injury and the fact that Rogers Centre is a turf surface, manager Alex Cora said he will not be in the lineup for Thursday’s series finale.Read more at: nesn.com/2018/08/red-sox-notes-rafael-devers-disabled-list-stint-didnt-slow-him-down/There's like 0% chance Farrell makes the same decision, right? True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2018 10:12:44 GMT -5
There's like 0% chance Farrell makes the same decision, right? True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Maybe he did if he didn't wear them out and play everyone who's hurt.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2018 10:17:35 GMT -5
There's like 0% chance Farrell makes the same decision, right? True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 9, 2018 10:18:34 GMT -5
Thanks to Eric for explaining the hard contact percentage stat and it's flaws. I had no argument against it, but after he was explaining it, I'll take most hard hit groundballs versus a fly ball pitcher. To me, and this is clearly a eye ball test thing, Brasier lives more on the corners. Hembree is a nice north to south pitcher that leaves too many hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Hembree has done this less this year because he has set a career high in groundball rates, strikeout rates, and homerun per nine rates, but I do think that'll regress more back to his career norms. I know I'm probably going to get mauled on here for saying this, but Hembree was the worst pitcher in MLB in letting inherited runners to score last year. This year he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. Maybe that speaks more to the randomness of that stat, but that's why I worry about Hembree with runners on base everytime, regardless of his progression this year. He's having a career year, but who knows how long that is really going to last. Hembree has shown to really regress big at times in the past. I think people tend to forget that with his best season here so far. If it is a career year, my guess is it lasts the year.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,446
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Post by ianrs on Aug 9, 2018 10:23:51 GMT -5
True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player. You're right, hes not, maybe about 5-6 wins? Making Cora worth about 15 wins. Or Farrell worth -15 wins, or whichever permutation of those numbers fancied. 😉
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 10:26:20 GMT -5
Thanks to Eric for explaining the hard contact percentage stat and it's flaws. I had no argument against it, but after he was explaining it, I'll take most hard hit groundballs versus a fly ball pitcher. To me, and this is clearly a eye ball test thing, Brasier lives more on the corners. Hembree is a nice north to south pitcher that leaves too many hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Hembree has done this less this year because he has set a career high in groundball rates, strikeout rates, and homerun per nine rates, but I do think that'll regress more back to his career norms. I know I'm probably going to get mauled on here for saying this, but Hembree was the worst pitcher in MLB in letting inherited runners to score last year. This year he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. Maybe that speaks more to the randomness of that stat, but that's why I worry about Hembree with runners on base everytime, regardless of his progression this year. He's having a career year, but who knows how long that is really going to last. Hembree has shown to really regress big at times in the past. I think people tend to forget that with his best season here so far. If it is a career year, my guess is it lasts the year. Well yes, lol. The regression I was talking about was Hembree's groundball rate going under 40%. His strikeout per nine going down to 11 percentish. His homerun per nine going up over 1 homerun per nine innings. Either way, he'll seem like his break his marks even with regressions, which is a credit to him. Might be a guy to sell high on after coming off a career year too, or a guy worth keeping and riding out on one more year of pretty good value.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 10:30:00 GMT -5
True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player. I know JD Martinez isn't a 20 win player, but he feels like a 20 win player compared to Hanley. Realistically, that's a 3 win improvement at least. What a move, what a upgrade.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2018 10:38:24 GMT -5
Red Sox will be able to eliminate Baltimore from winning the division in the next day or two. Early in August!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2018 10:40:20 GMT -5
True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player. Yeah, Cora is managing under very different circumstances than Farrell ever did, but that's kind of the point. Cora just seems more responsive than Farrell.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2018 10:44:53 GMT -5
Agree totally. With John Farrell we'd get things like "we need to rest Junichi Tazawa, who is overworked" every June. It was as if he didn't understand he was the one who was overworking him.
He also didn't get proactive situational managing. Like, leaving Brian Johnson in last night to give up a couple extra runs while resting the bullpen is good for the team, if not his ERA. Farrell unquestionably would've left him in as well in the same situation. The difference is that Cora would've managed the game differently if the score was 3-2 (as those times he took Johnson out in the fifth indicate), while I'm certain Farrell would not have. Farrell always was managing a problem, whereas Cora manages to try to limit problems.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 9, 2018 10:44:58 GMT -5
Hembree is the perfect example of how much better Cora is at managing a bullpen than Farrell was. I really don't think Hembree is any different, he's just being put into spots were he can succeed. Mainly facing tons of below average to really bad hitters. He's also not being used for those 2-3 inning long stints that was rather common his first two years.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 9, 2018 10:47:22 GMT -5
Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player. I know JD Martinez isn't a 20 win player, but he feels like a 20 win player compared to Hanley. Realistically, that's a 3 win improvement at least. What a move, what a upgrade. Already been at least a 5 win upgrade just on the basis of those players (swapping Hanley for JDM), then consider the additive effect of adding a good hitter to a good lineup, and any help JDM has given to other players improving their batting. JD has made an absolutely massive difference.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2018 10:56:46 GMT -5
Also, avoiding playing someone like Xander with a bad hand and Moreland with a broken toe for two months seems to work better than letting them play through it.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 9, 2018 11:17:29 GMT -5
Probably unrelated but I'm curious about what's happened to Xander's base running, he was always excellent, but this year has been negative, I can see how some variation might occur but the difference is too dramatic for it to just be random. According to Statcast his sprint speed is down .4 ft/s, but I still think the Sox could be more aggressive with him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2018 11:35:10 GMT -5
Also, avoiding playing someone like Xander with a bad hand and Moreland with a broken toe for two months seems to work better than letting them play through it. Maybe you can't totally blame Farrell for this, but I always think about the absolutely brutal slumps that Bogaerts and JBJ suffered through in 2014, and how there just didn't seem to be any attempt to stop the bleeding. It was simply assumed at the start of the season that these players would be good, and when they weren't, no one had an answer. It was the "we've tried nothing, and we're all out of ideas" school of management.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2018 11:44:21 GMT -5
Also, avoiding playing someone like Xander with a bad hand and Moreland with a broken toe for two months seems to work better than letting them play through it. Maybe you can't totally blame Farrell for this, but I always think about the absolutely brutal slumps that Bogaerts and JBJ suffered through in 2014, and how there just didn't seem to be any attempt to stop the bleeding. It was simply assumed at the start of the season that these players would be good, and when they weren't, no one had an answer. It was the "we've tried nothing, and we're all out of ideas" school of management. Well there was the "let's bring back Stephen Drew and bring back the band back together" idea. That seemed to frustrate Xander even more and made him play worse as he played 3B until Stephen Drew was traded after a horrible season. I don't think that was a fault of Farrell though. Ben Cherington had a lot of brain farts as a gm, like signing a unknown in Rusney Castillo to the largest guarantee out of Cuban defection history, but setting Xander back seemed like one of the worst ones.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 9, 2018 11:54:37 GMT -5
Johnson is a good solid number 5 starter. He’ll probably be out of our rotation when Erod comes back. Wonder what we do with him in the offseason if we can resign Eovaldi. Start him out as a swing man? The Sox could go to a 6 man rotation and would probably be best suited to do that in September if the Sox push Eduardo's rehab and time table for the beginning of September to join the big league club. If you're resigning Eovaldi, then you're probably trading Porcello and Johnson/Wright are probably competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. That's what I'd do at least. No trade of Porcello. We're all in on next year, it's the last year we'll have all our guys, with the possible exception of Kimbrel who I think we should let walk if he gets close to what some think he will.
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Post by michael on Aug 9, 2018 12:28:02 GMT -5
Is it me or was Leon getting pitches called from the dugout during Kelly's stint?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2018 12:40:18 GMT -5
Hembree is the perfect example of how much better Cora is at managing a bullpen than Farrell was. I really don't think Hembree is any different, he's just being put into spots were he can succeed. Mainly facing tons of below average to really bad hitters. He's also not being used for those 2-3 inning long stints that was rather common his first two years. While I agree with this, Cora's roster having an actual long reliever on it has helped there. Hembree was the last guy in the bullpen, and the last guy in the bullpen basically is rarely getting used in a way that's set up to maximize his individual talents. He's usually out there because they don't want anyone better pitching. Though given the Brentz situation at the end of last year, it sounds like Farrell had a decent amount of input as to who was on his roster, too.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 9, 2018 12:41:31 GMT -5
True, but Farrell never had the luxury of a Red Sox team that doesn't lose, no matter the players that play. Yes, despite having largely the same players. JD Martinez is real good, but he's not a 20-win player. It was striking that every single starter in 2017 had a worse offensive year than in 2016. Bogaerts and Moreland being forced to play through injuries was probably part of it. Who knows who else was playing through injuries as well, but we can see that Cora is much more attentive to player health. (Also much better at not overworking lanky Cy Young candidates.) I had wondered from time to time if maybe Chili Davis was just really bad at his job. But I see he's with the Cubs now and yep, their offense is doing just fine, with a lot of guys improving from last year.
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