SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2018 Red Sox postseason roster
|
Post by danredhawk on Oct 2, 2018 12:03:52 GMT -5
Why would those players be sent home? I didn't expect any to make the playoff rosters - but am I wrong in remembering non-rostered players still being around the team and in the dugout in the playoffs regardless?? Is there a limit?
Seems especially cold to Phillips who signed just to be around a playoff run...??
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2018 12:40:21 GMT -5
So we had 36 and can now remove Velazquez, Johnson, Phillips, Scott, Lin and Travis - leaving 30.
The last 5 to leave likely to be all pitchers - Thornburg (was shut down anyway), Cuevas are easy - that leaves 28....so, three of Pomeranz, Poyner, Workman, Hembree and Kelly will be left off. Tough decision, really, since none have been lights out lately. I am assuming Cora will carry all three catchers.
my guess - Poyner, Workman go, Kelly, Pomeranz (for a lefty and he has experience), and Hembree stay.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 2, 2018 12:52:10 GMT -5
I don't mind bringing Pomeranz on as much if he is being brought on for mop up duties.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Oct 2, 2018 12:53:31 GMT -5
I’d have Workman on the roster.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2018 12:57:02 GMT -5
The Yankees are starting Luis Severino for the wild card game.
That means - if NY does win Wed:
Game 1: AJ Happ vs Chris Sale Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka vs David Price Game 3: Luis Severino vs Rick Porcello Game 4: CC Sabathia vs Nathan Eovaldi (if necessary) Game 5: AJ Happ vs Chris Sale (if necessary)
I guess that means that Steve Pearce becomes a really important guy.
Kinsler probably winds up at 2b instead of Holt.
And unfortunately we get to see more of Eduardo Nunez than we'd like to.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2018 12:58:10 GMT -5
I’d have Workman on the roster. I'd rather have Workman, but don't see Cora going away from Hembree or Kelly. Let's see how it works out...
|
|
|
Post by danredhawk on Oct 2, 2018 13:04:49 GMT -5
Why would those players be sent home? I didn't expect any to make the playoff rosters - but am I wrong in remembering non-rostered players still being around the team and in the dugout in the playoffs regardless?? Is there a limit? Seems especially cold to Phillips who signed just to be around a playoff run...?? Youngsters not sent home - sent to FM to stay ready. Johnson and Velazquez sticking around. So maybe Phillips own idea not to stay if he's off roster and behind Lin, which is likely...
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Oct 2, 2018 14:10:22 GMT -5
Workman has valuable post season experience. He needs to be on the roster.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2018 14:27:38 GMT -5
So we had 36 and can now remove Velazquez, Johnson, Phillips, Scott, Lin and Travis - leaving 30. The last 5 to leave likely to be all pitchers - Thornburg (was shut down anyway), Cuevas are easy - that leaves 28....so, three of Pomeranz, Poyner, Workman, Hembree and Kelly will be left off. Tough decision, really, since none have been lights out lately. I am assuming Cora will carry all three catchers. my guess - Poyner, Workman go, Kelly, Pomeranz (for a lefty and he has experience), and Hembree stay. (You just included one more guy than there's room for, unless by "go" you meant to NYC and "stay" you meant at home.)
Why did you eliminate Velazquez and Johnson?
Workman, I think, is a given. Hembree, I think, is out, as his data shows a steady objective decline over the season that appears to be health-related. I think they demonstrated a while ago that Poyner is not in the running.
The last spot would appear to be Velazquez, Johnson, Kelly, or (longshot) Pomeranz.
They have three set-up guys, one of whom routinely works 2 and is capable of working 3+ innings. They have Workman as a fifth short guy, and E-Rod as a long man and piggy-back starter. Three of their four starters are serious risks for early exits. What the bullpen could really use is a long man for a game that's out of hand or that goes into extra innings. You don't want to burn E-Rod in that role because there's a serious chance that he follows Porcello in game 3 or Eovaldi in game 4 after a super-quick hook.
Given the rest they can give Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Barnes, and Workman, it's hard to imagine Kelly pitching a significant inning. I think it's Velazquez or Johnson, possibly depending on opponent. Johnson's the better pitcher but he may not match up as well against the Yankees.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Oct 2, 2018 14:32:15 GMT -5
So we had 36 and can now remove Velazquez, Johnson, Phillips, Scott, Lin and Travis - leaving 30. The last 5 to leave likely to be all pitchers - Thornburg (was shut down anyway), Cuevas are easy - that leaves 28....so, three of Pomeranz, Poyner, Workman, Hembree and Kelly will be left off. Tough decision, really, since none have been lights out lately. I am assuming Cora will carry all three catchers. my guess - Poyner, Workman go, Kelly, Pomeranz (for a lefty and he has experience), and Hembree stay. (You just included one more guy than there's room for, unless by "go" you meant to NYC and "stay" you meant at home.)
Why did you eliminate Velazquez and Johnson? Workman, I think, is a given. Hembree, I think, is out, as his data shows a steady objective decline over the season that appears to be health-related. I think they demonstrated a while ago that Poyner is not in the running.
The last spot would appear to be Velazquez, Johnson, Kelly, or (longshot) Pomeranz.
They have three set-up guys, one of whom routinely works 2 and is capable of working 3+ innings. They have Workman as a fifth short guy, and E-Rod as a long man and piggy-back starter. Three of their four starters are serious risks for early exits. What the bullpen could really use is a long man for a game that's out of hand or that goes into extra innings. You don't want to burn E-Rod in that role because there's a serious chance that he follows Porcello in game 3 or Eovaldi in game 4 after a super-quick hook. Given the rest they can give Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Barnes, and Workman, it's hard to imagine Kelly pitching a significant inning. I think it's Velazquez or Johnson, possibly depending on opponent. Johnson's the better pitcher but he may not match up as well against the Yankees.
It's been reported that they did not make the playoff roster, though will be with the team
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2018 14:39:26 GMT -5
I’d have Workman on the roster. I'd rather have Workman, but don't see Cora going away from Hembree or Kelly. Let's see how it works out... Looking some more at the numbers, Workman vs. Kelly could go either way. And it could be Hembree if his shoulder (I'm guessing) assessment is much better since mid-September.
The last spot has to be a long man, and again that's a three-way decision -- Pomeranz, Velazquez, Johnson -- where, again, they have way more data than we do.
Edit: what makes this interesting is that Kelly and Pomeranz are clearly the most talented and least reliable choices, so if they go with either one, they're setting themselves up for either praise for bold foresight, or serious second-guessing.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 2, 2018 15:09:35 GMT -5
I feel as if the 10th and 11th pitcher on the roster is pretty much a bad choice. Pick 2 out of a hat and make sure neither one of them pitches a important inning in the postseason.
I'm glad Cora is already ready to bring in Eovaldi as much as possible too.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 2, 2018 15:22:27 GMT -5
So we had 36 and can now remove Velazquez, Johnson, Phillips, Scott, Lin and Travis - leaving 30. The last 5 to leave likely to be all pitchers - Thornburg (was shut down anyway), Cuevas are easy - that leaves 28....so, three of Pomeranz, Poyner, Workman, Hembree and Kelly will be left off. Tough decision, really, since none have been lights out lately. I am assuming Cora will carry all three catchers. my guess - Poyner, Workman go, Kelly, Pomeranz (for a lefty and he has experience), and Hembree stay. (You just included one more guy than there's room for, unless by "go" you meant to NYC and "stay" you meant at home.)
Why did you eliminate Velazquez and Johnson?
Workman, I think, is a given. Hembree, I think, is out, as his data shows a steady objective decline over the season that appears to be health-related. I think they demonstrated a while ago that Poyner is not in the running.
The last spot would appear to be Velazquez, Johnson, Kelly, or (longshot) Pomeranz.
They have three set-up guys, one of whom routinely works 2 and is capable of working 3+ innings. They have Workman as a fifth short guy, and E-Rod as a long man and piggy-back starter. Three of their four starters are serious risks for early exits. What the bullpen could really use is a long man for a game that's out of hand or that goes into extra innings. You don't want to burn E-Rod in that role because there's a serious chance that he follows Porcello in game 3 or Eovaldi in game 4 after a super-quick hook.
Given the rest they can give Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Barnes, and Workman, it's hard to imagine Kelly pitching a significant inning. I think it's Velazquez or Johnson, possibly depending on opponent. Johnson's the better pitcher but he may not match up as well against the Yankees.
Is there any reports Hembree issues are health related? How was his data to start the year, not just looking at it after his crazy good month, the best of his career by a crazy wide margin. For me that crazy hot stretch got people thinking he was better than he was, and they started using him like that. He hasn't really had any of the multiple innings that he was so good at his first few years. He is what he is, the same guy that didn't pitch in the postseason the last two years.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 2, 2018 15:47:08 GMT -5
Hembree's decline is no mystery, when you look at Pitch/fx movement data.
His season's average slider vertical movement (where a low figure is better, since it's more drop relative to hitter's expectation) worsened for 50 consecutive outings, from May 1 to Sept. 16. Think about that: for fifty straight outings, he had less sink on his slider than what he had averaged up to that point.
Through April 28 he averaged 0.7 inches of rise on the slider versus 10.0 on the FB, for a drop of 9.3". In August and September he was 4.3 versus 9.4, for a drop of 5.1."
This is driven by a steady decline in his release point, which also means that his FB has more armside run and hence the slider sweeps away less to a RHB. It ran 3.8" away from RHB in April and just 0.5" in August and September.
His release point has been headed back upwards in September, and his slider movement has edged back in the right direction, too. Still, he has a long way to go before he's the pitcher that was so effective for the first four months.
I think he can be written off as a post-season candidate. This isn't a slump; it's probably a shoulder that's bothering him.
Kelly would seem to be an impossible choice given his inconsistent mechanics from outing to outing.
Poyner would be a weird, weird choice because they haven't tried him in his probable role, even though they had a textbook chance (Neil Walker).
So it's Johnson vs. Velazquez, I think. I just saw the preceding post and I think it's spot on.
(You just included one more guy than there's room for, unless by "go" you meant to NYC and "stay" you meant at home.)
Why did you eliminate Velazquez and Johnson?
Workman, I think, is a given. Hembree, I think, is out, as his data shows a steady objective decline over the season that appears to be health-related. I think they demonstrated a while ago that Poyner is not in the running.
The last spot would appear to be Velazquez, Johnson, Kelly, or (longshot) Pomeranz.
They have three set-up guys, one of whom routinely works 2 and is capable of working 3+ innings. They have Workman as a fifth short guy, and E-Rod as a long man and piggy-back starter. Three of their four starters are serious risks for early exits. What the bullpen could really use is a long man for a game that's out of hand or that goes into extra innings. You don't want to burn E-Rod in that role because there's a serious chance that he follows Porcello in game 3 or Eovaldi in game 4 after a super-quick hook.
Given the rest they can give Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Barnes, and Workman, it's hard to imagine Kelly pitching a significant inning. I think it's Velazquez or Johnson, possibly depending on opponent. Johnson's the better pitcher but he may not match up as well against the Yankees.
Is there any reports Hembree issues are health related? How was his data to start the year, not just looking at it after his crazy good month, the best of his career by a crazy wide margin. For me that crazy hot stretch got people thinking he was better than he was, and they started using him like that. He hasn't really had any of the multiple innings that he was so good at his first few years. He is what he is, the same guy that didn't pitch in the postseason the last two years. Eric speculated that it's health related in the quoted post above yours. Given that he has had a release point issue for most of the season, it almost assuredly would have been corrected if it wasn't health.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2018 16:24:52 GMT -5
So we had 36 and can now remove Velazquez, Johnson, Phillips, Scott, Lin and Travis - leaving 30. The last 5 to leave likely to be all pitchers - Thornburg (was shut down anyway), Cuevas are easy - that leaves 28....so, three of Pomeranz, Poyner, Workman, Hembree and Kelly will be left off. Tough decision, really, since none have been lights out lately. I am assuming Cora will carry all three catchers. my guess - Poyner, Workman go, Kelly, Pomeranz (for a lefty and he has experience), and Hembree stay. (You just included one more guy than there's room for, unless by "go" you meant to NYC and "stay" you meant at home.)
Why did you eliminate Velazquez and Johnson?
Workman, I think, is a given. Hembree, I think, is out, as his data shows a steady objective decline over the season that appears to be health-related. I think they demonstrated a while ago that Poyner is not in the running.
The last spot would appear to be Velazquez, Johnson, Kelly, or (longshot) Pomeranz.
They have three set-up guys, one of whom routinely works 2 and is capable of working 3+ innings. They have Workman as a fifth short guy, and E-Rod as a long man and piggy-back starter. Three of their four starters are serious risks for early exits. What the bullpen could really use is a long man for a game that's out of hand or that goes into extra innings. You don't want to burn E-Rod in that role because there's a serious chance that he follows Porcello in game 3 or Eovaldi in game 4 after a super-quick hook.
Given the rest they can give Kimbrel, Brasier, Wright, Barnes, and Workman, it's hard to imagine Kelly pitching a significant inning. I think it's Velazquez or Johnson, possibly depending on opponent. Johnson's the better pitcher but he may not match up as well against the Yankees.
Cora announced it today at his news conference
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 2, 2018 18:19:08 GMT -5
The NESN article based on Cora's news conference The Boston Red Sox have yet to announce their full playoff roster, but we do know some players who didn’t make the cut. Red Sox manager Alex Cora on Tuesday informed six players they won’t be on the American League Division Series roster: pitchers Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson and Robby Scott, and infielders Tzu-Wei Lin, Sam Travis and Brandon Phillips. Velaquez and Johnson were asked to remain with the team, according to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, while Scott, Lin and Travis are heading to Fort Myers to continue working out in case they’re needed at some point during the playoffs. Informing players they won’t be on the roster understandably wasn’t easy for Cora. “I mean, very difficult,” Cora said, via Bradford. “But at the same time, I let them know they were very important. No chance we survive pitching-wise without them accepting their roles and using them in different roles. They should be proud of what they did and they’re going to stay ready. “They’re going to be ready if something happens and are guys that will be in the conversation throughout the month.” With the cuts of Velazquez, Johnson and Scott, it appears the two spots in Boston’s bullpen will be filled by either Bobby Poyner, Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly or Heath Hembree. Cora also announced that Nathan Eovaldi likely will start in a potential ALDS Game 4, should the Red Sox play the New York Yankees. The right-hander will be in the bullpen until then, though.(notice no mention of Pomeranz)Read more at: nesn.com/2018/10/alex-cora-informed-these-red-sox-players-theyre-not-on-playoff-roster/
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 2, 2018 22:05:12 GMT -5
Hembree's decline is no mystery, when you look at Pitch/fx movement data.
His season's average slider vertical movement (where a low figure is better, since it's more drop relative to hitter's expectation) worsened for 50 consecutive outings, from May 1 to Sept. 16. Think about that: for fifty straight outings, he had less sink on his slider than what he had averaged up to that point.
Through April 28 he averaged 0.7 inches of rise on the slider versus 10.0 on the FB, for a drop of 9.3". In August and September he was 4.3 versus 9.4, for a drop of 5.1."
This is driven by a steady decline in his release point, which also means that his FB has more armside run and hence the slider sweeps away less to a RHB. It ran 3.8" away from RHB in April and just 0.5" in August and September.
His release point has been headed back upwards in September, and his slider movement has edged back in the right direction, too. Still, he has a long way to go before he's the pitcher that was so effective for the first four months.
I think he can be written off as a post-season candidate. This isn't a slump; it's probably a shoulder that's bothering him.
Kelly would seem to be an impossible choice given his inconsistent mechanics from outing to outing.
Poyner would be a weird, weird choice because they haven't tried him in his probable role, even though they had a textbook chance (Neil Walker).
So it's Johnson vs. Velazquez, I think. I just saw the preceding post and I think it's spot on.
Is there any reports Hembree issues are health related? How was his data to start the year, not just looking at it after his crazy good month, the best of his career by a crazy wide margin. For me that crazy hot stretch got people thinking he was better than he was, and they started using him like that. He hasn't really had any of the multiple innings that he was so good at his first few years. He is what he is, the same guy that didn't pitch in the postseason the last two years. Eric speculated that it's health related in the quoted post above yours. Given that he has had a release point issue for most of the season, it almost assuredly would have been corrected if it wasn't health. Hembree's numbers by the month went up and down. Stating numbers like Eric did sure does seem to support his case, but what does it look like month to month? For example he wasn't good in May, but great in June. What happend then? My point is I bet they went up and down over the course of the season and weren't as Eric makes it seem high than just decreasing. I say this because he didn't just include April, no its through April 28th. Which screams that he kept playing with the numbers and was cherry picking data. Relievers release points come and go, doesn't mean its health related. Heck on average most players lose stuff over the course of a season.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Oct 2, 2018 23:27:13 GMT -5
Wouldn't appear to be cherry picking. Hembree pitched on the 28th. Not on the 29th or 30th. So it's the same endpoint for him.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 3, 2018 9:08:39 GMT -5
I agree I'd rather have Workman than Kelly. For the final spot guy, I'd rather have the guy with a higher floor than the higher ceiling. Workman also has a better postseason resume.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2018 9:27:08 GMT -5
I agree I'd rather have Workman than Kelly. For the final spot guy, I'd rather have the guy with a higher floor than the higher ceiling. Workman also has a better postseason resume. I think you can throw out Workman's past postseason games really. He hasn't pitched in a playoff game since 2013 and he's had a Tommy John surgery since that time and isn't quite the same pitcher since 2013. I prefer Workman because at least he won't give up free baserunners (walks), not because of past experience.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,987
|
Post by nomar on Oct 3, 2018 11:11:24 GMT -5
Workman 2H 2018: 6.93 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.82 HR/9, 5.72 FIP, 4.69 xFIP
Kelly 2H 2018: 9.35 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 4.20 xFIP
Aside from a lucky August from an ERA standpoint, Workman has been even worse than Joe Kelly. Kelly's walks are a pain in the ass, but he's given too much flak around here. I'd easily rather have Kelly than Workman. I don't care what Workman did in the playoffs 5 years ago.
|
|
|
Post by wildsox on Oct 3, 2018 13:16:44 GMT -5
I agree I'd rather have Workman than Kelly. For the final spot guy, I'd rather have the guy with a higher floor than the higher ceiling. Workman also has a better postseason resume. I think you can throw out Workman's past postseason games really. He hasn't pitched in a playoff game since 2013 and he's had a Tommy John surgery since that time and isn't quite the same pitcher since 2013. I prefer Workman because at least he won't give up free baserunners (walks), not because of past experience. I agree about the postseason experience for Workman. I just can't sit through a bullpen meltdown walking everyone in the ballpark and that's more likely to happen with Kelly.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 3, 2018 14:59:42 GMT -5
Workman 2H 2018: 6.93 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.82 HR/9, 5.72 FIP, 4.69 xFIP Kelly 2H 2018: 9.35 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 4.20 xFIP Aside from a lucky August from an ERA standpoint, Workman has been even worse than Joe Kelly. Kelly's walks are a pain in the ass, but he's given too much flak around here. I'd easily rather have Kelly than Workman. I don't care what Workman did in the playoffs 5 years ago. It's a bad choice either way really. I just hope either one doesn't throw a meaningful inning this postseason for the Sox. It's like picking between horse crap and cow crap, no matter which one you pick, it's still crap.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 3, 2018 15:35:46 GMT -5
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2018 15:47:06 GMT -5
Eric speculated that it's health related in the quoted post above yours. Given that he has had a release point issue for most of the season, it almost assuredly would have been corrected if it wasn't health. Hembree's numbers by the month went up and down. Stating numbers like Eric did sure does seem to support his case, but what does it look like month to month? For example he wasn't good in May, but great in June. What happend then? My point is I bet they went up and down over the course of the season and weren't as Eric makes it seem high than just decreasing. I say this because he didn't just include April, no its through April 28th. Which screams that he kept playing with the numbers and was cherry picking data. Relievers release points come and go, doesn't mean its health related. Heck on average most players lose stuff over the course of a season. Um, April 28th was the last day he pitched in April. I thought of editing the post to make that clear, but it's actually not relevant. It's a coincidence.
There's no cherry-picking here at all. I got all of his movement data, appearance by appearance, and then calculated the average movement on his slider from the start of the season to that appearance. He had tremendous movement in April, with no pattern of change. After April, every single outing for 50 in a row had less slider movement than the average to that point, which should strike you as a) absolutely objective, and b) f**ing astounding. The odds of that being random if there was no change in slider movement are more than 1 quadrillion to 1: 1,125,899,906,842,619 to 1, to be exact.
And you know what? If I had found that the decline had started one appearance earlier, that wouldn't be cherry-picking. It would in fact make the odds twice as large.
Finding the point in time where something (such as performance) changes significantly is not cherry-picking. If you had a measure of a bridge's structural integrity and discovered it started a steady decline in June of 2006, your next step would be to look for a cause that might explain it by coming up with some hypotheses. E.g., did traffic increase dramatically because of some other road closure? Was there a change in the maintenance contract? And so forth. Ideally, once you discover a potential cause, you make another prediction based on that cause and see if that is also present in the data.
In this case, declining slider movement immediately suggested a shoulder problem, and the first thing I looked at was release point, and it was exactly as expected. I didn't bother calculating the correlation between release point and slider movement but the graphs made it clear that it was massively significant.
His performance blew hot and cold because his command came and went like every other relief pitcher you've ever seen except Koji Ueahara in 2013. But he was sensational in April because he had a tremendous, wipeout slider and he happened to have his control. Thereafter, the slider quality declined pretty much steadily until he was getting less than half the movement he had previously. His hot and cold command was superimposed over the steady decline. He's reached the point where he's not anywhere as good as Joe Kelly if they both have their good command, so if he makes the team it's some combination of shoulder improvement and a reason to believe that he will have good command.
|
|
|