nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 3, 2018 16:11:20 GMT -5
Workman 2H 2018: 6.93 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.82 HR/9, 5.72 FIP, 4.69 xFIP Kelly 2H 2018: 9.35 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 4.20 xFIP Aside from a lucky August from an ERA standpoint, Workman has been even worse than Joe Kelly. Kelly's walks are a pain in the ass, but he's given too much flak around here. I'd easily rather have Kelly than Workman. I don't care what Workman did in the playoffs 5 years ago. It's a bad choice either way really. I just hope either one doesn't throw a meaningful inning this postseason for the Sox. It's like picking between horse crap and cow crap, no matter which one you pick, it's still crap. I’ll take the crap with the higher chance at a K and much lower chance of a HR still though.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 3, 2018 16:21:25 GMT -5
True. But both are necessary, if for nothing else to enrich the soil; or in this case conversations.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2018 16:22:53 GMT -5
Except that's not what that data shows.
Before August 2015 only two of those months have a significant number of pitches and appearances. Those were 9/13 and 8/14, when he had 1.61 and 2.18.
When he started pitching regularly in August 2015, his slider wasn't anywhere near as good, and consistently so. It looks like a different pitch.
In 2016 he had the same really noticeable drop in release point as his slider movement worsened.
In 2017 he had the same mediocre slider as at the end of 2015 (it's hard to compare to 2016 without looking at release point data), then had a dramatic drop between August 21 and August 24. He had 15 straight outings where it was 3.21 to 6.19, and then finished the season with 9 outings where it was 1.01 to 2.41. No overlap at all.
Now, while pitch movement can of course vary from appearance to appearance, it rarely if ever blows hot and cold in long-ish streaks like mechanics and hence command does. That's because rhe mechanics of pitch release are hugely less complicated than the mechanics of an entire delivery. It's very common for a pitcher to not have the feel for a given pitch on a given night, or have a particularly good feel, but it's not something that you can lose over 15 outings and it's absolutely not something you can do better than baseline over 9.
So this is not a "hot streak." This is throwing your slider differently. This is apparently the same slider he started throwing this year.
If I have time I'm going to grab all the slider and release point movement and I think it will show that he's used two different sliders.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2018 16:49:01 GMT -5
I still can't see the logic of the last two guys being short men. Pomeranz when he's right is a (much) better pitcher than either Johnson or Velazquez, and he had close to his best velocity of the season in his last outing, and an excellent line over his last two (3.1 2 2 1 1 6) -- an 0.96 xFIP. I think they're rolling the dice with him and Kelly. You hope neither gets to pitch, but if they have to, they have the same downside as the alternatives but much more upside.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 3, 2018 17:05:49 GMT -5
Except that's not what that data shows.
Before August 2015 only two of those months have a significant number of pitches and appearances. Those were 9/13 and 8/14, when he had 1.61 and 2.18.
When he started pitching regularly in August 2015, his slider wasn't anywhere near as good, and consistently so. It looks like a different pitch.
In 2016 he had the same really noticeable drop in release point as his slider movement worsened.
In 2017 he had the same mediocre slider as at the end of 2015 (it's hard to compare to 2016 without looking at release point data), then had a dramatic drop between August 21 and August 24. He had 15 straight outings where it was 3.21 to 6.19, and then finished the season with 9 outings where it was 1.01 to 2.41. No overlap at all.
Now, while pitch movement can of course vary from appearance to appearance, it rarely if ever blows hot and cold in long-ish streaks like mechanics and hence command does. That's because rhe mechanics of pitch release are hugely less complicated than the mechanics of an entire delivery. It's very common for a pitcher to not have the feel for a given pitch on a given night, or have a particularly good feel, but it's not something that you can lose over 15 outings and it's absolutely not something you can do better than baseline over 9.
So this is not a "hot streak." This is throwing your slider differently. This is apparently the same slider he started throwing this year.
If I have time I'm going to grab all the slider and release point movement and I think it will show that he's used two different sliders.
You can call it whatever you want, but it comes and goes for him. You just can't overlook 2013 and 2014, its 7 2/3 and 10 innings about a month worths of work load for a reliever in 6 and 9 games. Heck he's had a month with his slider movement equals the first two months of this year every years he's pitched in the majors but 2016. His best that year was 2.38. That is what the data shows my friend. So unless he's had shoulder problems since 2013 what you are saying makes no sense. You are trying to cherry pick data to support your Hembree was better than all but a few relivers available talk before the trade deadline. We didn't see anything we haven't seen from him before.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 3, 2018 17:53:29 GMT -5
Id rather have the guy with better secondary stuff. Workman's curve can be elite. Hitters will be more anxious in the postseason, keeping them off balance will be key.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 3, 2018 22:42:13 GMT -5
So that should be it.
Taking on the MFY
These 14 in the field/at bat
Betts Benentendi Martinez Bogaerts Moreland (Pearce) Kinsler (Holt) Devers (Nunez) Leon (Vazquez, Swihart) Bradley
These starters - 4
Sale Price Porcello Eovaldi
The bridge - 6
Wright ERod Brasier Hembree or Workman Kelly Barnes
to get to the closer - 1
Kimbrel
I think there really is only that one decision remaining - Hembree or Workman. This puts Poyner and Pomeranz off the list.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 4, 2018 8:21:23 GMT -5
Based on how the BP has looked recently I think Wright might be one of the most important players if the Sox are going to win in the playoffs. Someone has to step up and deliver some very important innings.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 4, 2018 9:21:20 GMT -5
Based on how the BP has looked recently I think Wright might be one of the most important players if the Sox are going to win in the playoffs. Someone has to step up and deliver some very important innings. Agree 100%. Between change of pace, (hopefully) the ability to do multi-inning, early fireman or back-to-back, and lack of anyone else being hot in the BP, Wright will be key. One issue is deeper we get into October, weather effects come into play; I know he's had issues with sweat in the heat, but I thought there were grip issues in the cold too.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 4, 2018 9:28:48 GMT -5
If Pomeranz is ever in the game vs the MFYs, its over.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 4, 2018 13:14:02 GMT -5
The 24th out of the game is their weak spot.
The pitcher who starts the 8th possibly will not get 3 outs before faltering.
A. Kimbrel looks unlikely for that spot B. Whoever finished the 7th could carryover to the 8th, before getting lifted. C. Is Barnes ready for this role?
Edit: auto-spellcheck is a nuisance
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 4, 2018 13:21:15 GMT -5
Kimberly... 😂😂😂
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Post by cotuitfan on Oct 4, 2018 13:36:51 GMT -5
Kimberly? Really? What the hell is wrong with some of you guys?
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 4, 2018 13:57:45 GMT -5
Kimberly? Really? What the hell is wrong with some of you guys? Rockies going with 12 pitchers Brewers 11 I agree with Eric on Workman and I see no need for Johnson or Poyner vs Yanks. So pitchers 11 & 12 are Kelly & Hembree
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 4, 2018 15:05:56 GMT -5
Kimberly? Really? What the hell is wrong with some of you guys? I never thought it was on purpose, just hilarious
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Post by tizzle on Oct 5, 2018 15:05:40 GMT -5
So, Workman and Kelly. A bit surprised about Kelly. In the last month 4 of his 9 appearances have basically been disasters.
Just hope he's not needed in clutch spot.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 5, 2018 15:32:57 GMT -5
So, Workman and Kelly. A bit surprised about Kelly. In the last month 4 of his 9 appearances have basically been disasters. Just hope he's not needed in clutch spot. Alternatively, let’s hope he is his awesome self if needed in a clutch spot
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2018 15:47:35 GMT -5
So, Workman and Kelly. A bit surprised about Kelly. In the last month 4 of his 9 appearances have basically been disasters. Just hope he's not needed in clutch spot. You could say the same thing about everyone who didn't make it.
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Post by tizzle on Oct 5, 2018 15:54:40 GMT -5
So, Workman and Kelly. A bit surprised about Kelly. In the last month 4 of his 9 appearances have basically been disasters. Just hope he's not needed in clutch spot. Alternatively, let’s hope he is his awesome self if needed in a clutch spot Absolutely. Let's hope we get the Kelly from that Cleveland game the second to last weekend. But obviously I hope for the best version of all our players.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 5, 2018 22:59:01 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 5, 2018 23:54:32 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 9, 2018 16:26:07 GMT -5
He absolutely is. He's probably the 2nd best pitcher in the bullpen as soon as he's there. It's why they traded for him instead of a bullpen arm. He was acquired to help get the starting pitching staff get through the season & audition for a possible play off roster spot, which has not gone well for him. And he'd be more like the 2nd worst pitcher in the bullpen if placed there. Care to revisit? Of course I was also wrong about him being in the pen, since he's too good to keep out of the rotation.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 22, 2018 15:54:58 GMT -5
Interesting - tweet from earlier this afternoon -
Jim Bowden
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@jimbowdengm
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#RedSox expected to add Steven Wright to WS roster on Tuesday morning. Either Heath Hembree or Brandon Workman will come off roster to make room.
1:41 PM - 22 Oct 2018 from Boston, MA
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Oct 22, 2018 16:05:55 GMT -5
I'm going to guess that Wright won't be making any pinch running appearances this series.
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KB24
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Post by KB24 on Oct 22, 2018 16:13:33 GMT -5
Interesting - tweet from earlier this afternoon - Jim Bowden Verified account @jimbowdengm Follow Follow @jimbowdengm More #RedSox expected to add Steven Wright to WS roster on Tuesday morning. Either Heath Hembree or Brandon Workman will come off roster to make room. Should be Swihart if Cora isn't going to use him 1:41 PM - 22 Oct 2018 from Boston, MA
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