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Red Sox vs. Dodgers 2018 World Series Gameday Thread
KB24
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Post by KB24 on Oct 29, 2018 11:42:20 GMT -5
Price opting out would be the cherry on top of this wonderful magical absolutely perfect season! I hope this postseason gave him the sense of confidence to make this move. Use the savings and allocate a good chunk of it to Eovaldi! We’re at a very strange place in sports fandom right now where the reaction to your ace pitching a gem on short rest to win a World Series is “I hope he leaves the team so that his salary can be reallocated 17% more efficiently!” takes. Let's be clear, Price was absolutely the best pitcher for the Sox in the postseason and completely turned around his narrative. But he is certainly not the ace. That title belongs to Chris Sale. I'm very grateful for the contributions Price made this postseason and during the second half because without him the Sox don't accomplish all this. I'm happy for him, happy for the Sox, and happy for the fans. But the guy doesn't appear to like playing in Boston, he hates the media, doesn't appreciate the passion of the fanbase, has an albatross of a contract, and his elbow is a ticking time bomb. If the Sox have a chance to get out from under that deal I think it makes them better going forward because it would give them an opportunity to use those resources in a more efficient manner.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 29, 2018 12:08:32 GMT -5
Should they visit the White House? I hope not
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Post by patford on Oct 29, 2018 12:12:02 GMT -5
We’re at a very strange place in sports fandom right now where the reaction to your ace pitching a gem on short rest to win a World Series is “I hope he leaves the team so that his salary can be reallocated 17% more efficiently!” takes. Let's be clear, Price was absolutely the best pitcher for the Sox in the postseason and completely turned around his narrative. But he is certainly not the ace. That title belongs to Chris Sale. I'm very grateful for the contributions Price made this postseason and during the second half because without him the Sox don't accomplish all this. I'm happy for him, happy for the Sox, and happy for the fans. But the guy doesn't appear to like playing in Boston, he hates the media, doesn't appreciate the passion of the fanbase, has an albatross of a contract, and his elbow is a ticking time bomb. If the Sox have a chance to get out from under that deal I think it makes them better going forward because it would give them an opportunity to use those resources in a more efficient manner. Chris Sale isn't even close to being "the ace." He was close to a non-factor as a pitcher in the post season and as his career record shows as usual he was a shell of himself in the second half despite the Sox doing everything possible to manage his workload. This is no knock on him as a person or teammate. Lots of pitchers break down towards the end of the year. It may be his slight build. I'm sure it isn't his mental makeup. Really though if you year after year can not count on a guy from the All Star Break on his value is greatly diminished.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2018 12:19:41 GMT -5
And it wasn't even just on short rest. It was on short rest, while pitching an inning and warming up for another game in between starts. Remember when TJS was imminent for him? Not only that, I remember when it was imminent but also at the exact same time he was faking the elbow injury because he didn't want to face the media. And some folks seem to think his dislike of the Boston media is somehow a mark against him. Let’s be really clear, most of the Boston sports media are a bunch of mean spirited opportunistic jackels, and a good portion of them aren’t above race-baiting either. These people didn’t just question the size of his contract or the health of his arm, they accused him of being weak, soft, cowardly. After this postseason, we know for sure that isn’t the case. Price knew it all along.
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Post by patford on Oct 29, 2018 12:32:53 GMT -5
Not only that, I remember when it was imminent but also at the exact same time he was faking the elbow injury because he didn't want to face the media. And some folks seem to think his dislike of the Boston media is somehow a mark against him. Let’s be really clear, most of the Boston sports media are a bunch of mean spirited opportunistic jackels, and a good portion of them aren’t above race-baiting either. These people didn’t just question the size of his contract or the health of his arm, they accused him of being weak, soft, cowardly. After this postseason, we know for sure that isn’t the case. Price knew it all along. I don't know about most but it's a lot.
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Post by patford on Oct 29, 2018 12:39:57 GMT -5
Should they visit the White House? I hope not
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Post by terriblehondo on Oct 29, 2018 12:42:30 GMT -5
Same with me and my Grandpa, who was born in 1918. Luckily, he got to see 2004 and 2007, but any time the Sox make waves, I think of him. My Dad and I got to watch this one together. Baseball is the father-son sport. Can I get an ‘Amen’?!?!? I got to see 4 more than my dad. Yeah it sucks that my Dad passed in 2004 before he got to see one. I would have loved to be able to celebrate with him at least once.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 29, 2018 12:48:13 GMT -5
Price was clearly bothered by not wining it tho. I would have given it to him fwiw. Oh so I wasn't the only one that had this impression. Was he really? I had the same exact feeling for Curry in the last NBA Finals and then I started to think about it and I doubt he felt like he needed the validation.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2018 12:55:14 GMT -5
I love it: the three teams the Sox just stomped ranked ahead of them. What, is Mookie getting old or something? Pardon my sarcasm, but just more of the same shallow drivel hubris in which the Astros, Nyfy and LAD improve because, well, they probably will. I was amazed that his nyfy improvement is based on signing a top SP and either Harper or Machado. Whooopeee, more HR, and more conflict. Of course all the Astros players who had down years will all have good years and maybe trade for Goldie. The Dodgers will win when they re-sign Kershaw and bring up top prospects. The Sox will regress, he says, because past 100W teams have regressed, ergo, etc.. Brilliant analysis. He never considers the probability of this great team becoming even better: return of Pedroia, maturation of Beni, Devers, ERod and that Brasier kid, nor the potential of Eovaldi or Wright, the issues that Price, Porcello, Barnes, Kelly, Holt, Pearce, JBJ have resolved, the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, nor the ability of DDo to make trades or sign a FA as needed. Underdogging the Sox is a wonderful thing, for the Sox and Sox fans.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2018 13:07:11 GMT -5
Red Sox made it through the entire season without losing more than 3 games in a row. Impressive. It makes sense...when you win 108 games, it doesn’t leave much room for long losing streaks. If I remember correctly, the 2013 team did the same thing of not losing more than three in a row all season. Two amazing teams in their own ways.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2018 13:10:56 GMT -5
I love it: the three teams the Sox just stomped ranked ahead of them. What, is Mookie getting old or something? Pardon my sarcasm, but just more of the same shallow drivel hubris in which the Astros, Nyfy and LAD improve because, well, they probably will. I was amazed that his nyfy improvement is based on signing a top SP and either Harper or Machado. Whooopeee, more HR, and more conflict. Of course all the Astros players who had down years will all have good years and maybe trade for Goldie. The Dodgers will win when they re-sign Kershaw and bring up top prospects. The Sox will regress, he says, because past 100W teams have regressed, ergo, etc.. Brilliant analysis. He never considers the probability of this great team becoming even better: return of Pedroia, maturation of Beni, Devers, ERod and that Brasier kid, nor the potential of Eovaldi or Wright, the issues that Price, Porcello, Barnes, Kelly, Holt, Pearce, JBJ have resolved, the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, nor the ability of DDo to make trades or sign a FA as needed. Underdogging the Sox is a wonderful thing, for the Sox and Sox fans. What terrible analysis to not acknowledge the obvious inevitability of every single player on your favorite team performing at their peak next year, and also not accounting for the unquestionably true fact that Manny Machado actually makes teams worse. I’m not even saying that I totally agree with the rankings, but the notion that you can’t rank those teams ahead of the Red Sox because they all lost to them in short series, especially when you’re ranking them for NEXT YEAR, is pure homerism.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 29, 2018 13:18:45 GMT -5
Price was clearly bothered by not wining it tho. I would have given it to him fwiw. Oh so I wasn't the only one that had this impression. Was he really? I had the same exact feeling for Curry in the last NBA Finals and then I started to think about it and I doubt he felt like he needed the validation. Curry not needing validation when he’s won multiple MVPs and is highly respected by everyone as one of the greatest players to play is different than Price not wanting that Title to shove it in people’s faces. I’m not surprise, honestly, I would have been disappointed if I were him.
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dirtdog
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Post by dirtdog on Oct 29, 2018 13:23:22 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 29, 2018 13:41:10 GMT -5
That was a 176 game Rorschach test for the media and fans. Hopes and fears got projected onto this team the entire season and it didn't seem to matter how much they won. My take: there are a handful of analysts and good baseball writers who know enough about the game to give intelligent commentary. What I refer to as the 10% rule applies here. It's about 10% of that crowd that does the heavy lifting, using either analytics or just a good understanding of how a team works to give real value. Another 80% just throw stuff out there, sort of making it up as they go along, doing anything they can to gather eyeballs even if it means creating controversy where there is none. That last 10% have an axe to grind, they have an angle they're working - think Heyman here - or they're just very bad at what they do. The position by position comparisons largely neglected the fantastic job of roster construction Sox FO did. They had multiple options at all the supposedly weak positions: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and catcher. Cora kept everyone fresh, and he used that roster like only the best managers - including those in business management - do. He trusted his players giving them the chance to succeed. Bradley is the case study. He did not get it going till mid-season. That he did just that in the second half was for one reason only: Cora ran him out there game after game. That trust paid off. Kelly and Price, two of the most press-maligned players on the team were asked to carry the load in the WS of all venues, and they carried the day. Pierce was put in the 3-hole. How big a deal is that for a so-called journeyman? From his age-30 season on, he's been a player. It takes a while for some guys to get going but look at the result. He killed it on the big stage. It's easy to see why they play hard for Cora. I'll suggest to all of us on the board, that we use our best judgement, informed by an ever-increasing base of knowledge, to figure out when we're wading in BS. You may actually have a better feel for what's going down than the nominal experts. That's the truth. Critical thinking at all times. The perceived need for relief talent took neither the reality of post-season series - days off and it's all over when it's over so use what you have - into account. The names that were thrown out were no better, and in some cases worse, than what the team had on hand, a point Eric made over and over. They had everything they needed on hand already - some board members believed that and said it out loud.
The proof is in the results. They blew threw the competition like a windstorm. Just a great team effort.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 13:43:44 GMT -5
The last narrative that's completely gone is the Jon Lester versus Price narrative. "I wish we could have resigned Lester instead."
David Price decided to sign here. Jon Lester decided to walk away, even when the Sox upped their offer and made it a fair one like Lester said when he originally wanted to resign here (135-140 million in free agency offered by the Sox).
David Price is now legend in Boston like Lester was.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 29, 2018 13:44:59 GMT -5
the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, So... about that. There are a lot of good reasons to think the Red Sox are better than the Astros, and even moreso the Yankees, and even more moreso than the Dodgers, heading into 2019. "Chavis, Lakins, and Feltman" being the possible rookies isn't one of them. Those three teams have systems that are much stronger and it's a reasonable expectations that all three of those teams will get more production out of players who aren't currently on their roster than the Red Sox will. I'd probably have the Red Sox and Astros as 1(a) and 1(b) but all four teams, as well as Chicago, are very good.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 29, 2018 13:54:24 GMT -5
The other point that has to be made, is that they pushed through the salary cap and they're going to have to really juggle a few balls to get it back below it. I'll re-post the spreadsheet that shows what slack they do and don't have. Because so much of the outstanding talent on the team was home-grown and still quite young, the overhead for keeping some of that talent around is only going to increase going forward. I say some, because they can't keep it all as tough as that may be to swallow. The other top teams they're competing with do not have quite as much of a heavy lift facing them.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 29, 2018 14:01:04 GMT -5
In terms of ranking this team among the best baseball teams of all time, has there been a WS champion (I suppose in the WC era) whose opponents had a greater cumulative run differential? I'm coming up with +639 between the Yanks, Stros, and Dodgers...the three highest in MLB excluding us. I poked around a little and it looks like this was the highest total among a World Series winner. Among any team, winner or loser, the 2001 Yankees are the only team I can find that faced a tougher schedule, as the A's, Mariners, and Diamondbacks combined for +680.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2018 14:03:31 GMT -5
Pardon my sarcasm, but just more of the same shallow drivel hubris in which the Astros, Nyfy and LAD improve because, well, they probably will. I was amazed that his nyfy improvement is based on signing a top SP and either Harper or Machado. Whooopeee, more HR, and more conflict. Of course all the Astros players who had down years will all have good years and maybe trade for Goldie. The Dodgers will win when they re-sign Kershaw and bring up top prospects. The Sox will regress, he says, because past 100W teams have regressed, ergo, etc.. Brilliant analysis. He never considers the probability of this great team becoming even better: return of Pedroia, maturation of Beni, Devers, ERod and that Brasier kid, nor the potential of Eovaldi or Wright, the issues that Price, Porcello, Barnes, Kelly, Holt, Pearce, JBJ have resolved, the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, nor the ability of DDo to make trades or sign a FA as needed. Underdogging the Sox is a wonderful thing, for the Sox and Sox fans. What terrible analysis to not acknowledge the obvious inevitability of every single player on your favorite team performing at their peak next year, and also not accounting for the unquestionably true fact that Manny Machado actually makes teams worse. I’m not even saying that I totally agree with the rankings, but the notion that you can’t rank those teams ahead of the Red Sox because they all lost to them in short series, especially when you’re ranking them for NEXT YEAR, is pure homerism. It’s not at all about his ranking the Astros, nyfy or Dodgers ahead of the Sox in 2019. His guesses are as good as anyone’s. It is his reasoning, the evidence or lack therof that is questionable. That he ignores even the possibility of the Sox improving is silly. Happy homer that I am, It may also be silly that, in response to ESPN’s broad brush strokes, I enumerated several areas in which the Sox could actually become a better team in 2019, but I can live with that. I don’t think this team has reached its full potential yet, and am not surprised that expert pundits are already missing what may be brewing in Boston.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 29, 2018 14:20:58 GMT -5
That was a 176 game Rorschach test for the media and fans. Hopes and fears got projected onto this team the entire season and it didn't seem to matter how much they won. My take: there are a handful of analysts and good baseball writers who know enough about the game to give intelligent commentary. What I refer to as the 10% rule applies here. It's about 10% of that crowd that does the heavy lifting, using either analytics or just a good understanding of how a team works to give real value. Another 80% just throw stuff out there, sort of making it up as they go along, doing anything they can to gather eyeballs even if it means creating controversy where there is none. That last 10% have an axe to grind, they have an angle they're working - think Heyman here - or they're just very bad at what they do. The position by position comparisons largely neglected the fantastic job of roster construction Sox FO did. They had multiple options at all the supposedly weak positions: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and catcher. Cora kept everyone fresh, and he used that roster like only the best managers - including those in business management - do. He trusted his players giving them the chance to succeed. Bradley is the case study. He did not get it going till mid-season. That he did just that in the second half was for one reason only: Cora ran him out there game after game. That trust paid off. Kelly and Price, two of the most press-maligned players on the team were asked to carry the load in the WS of all venues, and they carried the day. Pierce was put in the 3-hole. How big a deal is that for a so-called journeyman? From his age-30 season on, he's been a player. It takes a while for some guys to get going but look at the result. He killed it on the big stage. It's easy to see why they play hard for Cora. I'll suggest to all of us on the board, that we use our best judgement, informed by an ever-increasing base of knowledge, to figure out when we're wading in BS. You may actually have a better feel for what's going down than the nominal experts. That's the truth. Critical thinking at all times. The perceived need for relief talent took neither the reality of post-season series - days off and it's all over when it's over so use what you have - into account. The names that were thrown out were no better, and in some cases worse, than what the team had on hand, a point Eric made over and over. They had everything they needed on hand already - some board members believed that and said it out loud.
The proof is in the results. They blew threw the competition like a windstorm. Just a great team effort.
Great stuff here. The other interesting aspect of evaluation are when considering intangibles...perceived team culture, presence or absence of team "cancers", etc. There is wide variation in discussions here on the validity and/or impacts. My wife watched quite a few games with me and often commented on how much fun this team seemed to have...mutual support, smiles, etc. Some is going to be a young core all moving through the system together, some on luck of the draw of the particular collection of players and their personalities, some on Cora and the type of atmosphere he tried to foster. Hard to measure these things with analytics... Just as a Sandoval or a Hanley looked to some of us as toxic, the total apparent absence of a team character cancer must have played some finite role. This was the most likable team in my 50+ years of watching.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2018 14:22:55 GMT -5
the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, So... about that. There are a lot of good reasons to think the Red Sox are better than the Astros, and even moreso the Yankees, and even more moreso than the Dodgers, heading into 2019. "Chavis, Lakins, and Feltman" being the possible rookies isn't one of them. Those three teams have systems that are much stronger and it's a reasonable expectations that all three of those teams will get more production out of players who aren't currently on their roster than the Red Sox will. I'd probably have the Red Sox and Astros as 1(a) and 1(b) but all four teams, as well as Chicago, are very good. I think I’d still have the Astros as a clear #1. Their pitching depth is insane, whereas the Red Sox could have some real issues there, both in regards to A) bringing everyone on the current staff back and B) the hangover effects from having pushed so many of their best pitchers so hard in the postseason.
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cutz
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Post by cutz on Oct 29, 2018 14:26:34 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 29, 2018 14:31:45 GMT -5
WS Win Probability Added reveals that the Pearce / Price MVP question wasn't really close.
This excludes defense except for four plays:
-- Kinsler's throwing it away instead of making no throw --JDM losing the ball lost in the lights (adds .100 to Price and subtracts it from him)
-- Xander going deep into the hole and getting off an incredibly quick and strong throw to get Puig in the 8th inning of game 1 (scored as a play made half the time and giving him .006) -- Devers possibly even tougher play going to his right to get Machado for the next-to-last out of game 4 (ditto on the scoting, but giving him .049. Both of these came out of Kimbel's already inflated score).
The latter two were the only good plays that earned a full-size ! on my scorecard.
The inevitable guy who got screwd by BABIP luck was Vazquez, who hit a bunch of rockets right at fielders.
Name WPA S Pearce .637 D Price .498 N Eovaldi .372 J Kelly .371 R Devers .272 B Holt .250 C Kimbrel .235* J Martinez .139 H Hembree .125 J Bradley Jr. .098 M Barnes .091 R Porcello .055 A Benintendi .047 S Leon .029 E Nunez .007 C Sale -.006 E Rodriguez -.008 B Swihart -.033 M Moreland -.042 R Brasier -.069 M Betts -.188 C Vazquez -.304 X Bogaerts -.509 I Kinsler -.567 *Guys who pitch the last inning have a distorted WPA. I'm thinking about how to best adjust for that. The starting point is to calculate the WPA that would have resulted if it were the 8th inning instead.
Next: WPA for the entire post-season.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2018 14:32:21 GMT -5
the likely emergence of Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, So... about that. There are a lot of good reasons to think the Red Sox are better than the Astros, and even moreso the Yankees, and even more moreso than the Dodgers, heading into 2019. "Chavis, Lakins, and Feltman" being the possible rookies isn't one of them. Those three teams have systems that are much stronger and it's a reasonable expectations that all three of those teams will get more production out of players who aren't currently on their roster than the Red Sox will. I'd probably have the Red Sox and Astros as 1(a) and 1(b) but all four teams, as well as Chicago, are very good. I fully agree that Chavis, Feltman, Lakins, et al may not be on par with some of the competing team’s top prospects (though it is baseball ...) My point is that, rather than the regression or falling behind those teams in terms of talent that the article projected, the Sox could and probably will find ways to get even better. So I listed several areas in which the Sox could improve in 2019. Lakins and Feltman may make a volatile Pen more deadly. Chavis may add some offense to the best offense in the game. And Pedroia at the keystone may be key to improved infield D and extend the lineup substantially. Or full seasons from Devers, Eovaldi, Wright. Sale. Etc. LOL the article considered none of these as salient, which bodes well for 2019.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2018 14:37:32 GMT -5
The perceived need for relief talent took neither the reality of post-season series - days off and it's all over when it's over so use what you have - into account. The names that were thrown out were no better, and in some cases worse, than what the team had on hand, a point Eric made over and over. They had everything they needed on hand already - some board members believed that and said it out loud. The proof is in the results. They blew threw the competition like a windstorm. Just a great team effort.
I don’t fully agree with this. Yeah, I think the weakness of the bullpen was somewhat overstated, but at the same time, the performance that they ultimately delivered was above and beyond any reasonable expectation. Like no one before hand was saying “the Red Sox bullpen is fine because Joe Kelly is about to go on the run of his life”, and he was hardly the only example there. What we saw from the bullpen was not something you could ever anticipate nor is it something you can replicate. And it’s pure hindsight to look at it now and believe it could have happened no other way.
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