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Red Sox vs. Dodgers 2018 World Series Gameday Thread
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,489
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Post by radiohix on Oct 29, 2018 17:39:11 GMT -5
This right here is as good as it gets folks! The cold blooded killer unleashed, teamates standing to aplaud him, Eduardo Rodriguez yelling and he goes out there making 3 professional hitters look like little leaguers. When this team step on your throat, you're done!
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2018 17:49:37 GMT -5
The joy for me of watching this team is not the rote, mechanistic exercise of projecting how sustainable the performance was. There is certainly analytical value in that, and plenty of time in the offseason to start thinking about how 2018 informs 2019 and beyond (and yes, it's impossible to resist slipping into it now and then, even on the day after a World Series win). No, Joe Kelly will not sustain his Super Saiyan form, Alex Cora's Midas touch will wear off, Eovaldi and Price won't be able to sustain awe-inspiring performances on short rest through sheer power of will. But for a few nights in October, they did all that, and it was awesome. Call me crazy, but it's a lot less awesome if you assume that the outcome was never in doubt because the Red Sox are obviously so much better than every other team. Also y'all thought this team was doomed 36 hours ago so please miss me with the "OMG HOW COULD ANYONE RANK THE DODGERS AHEAD OF THE RED SOX" stuff. I do not care, nor do I have thoughts or opinions about, 2019 team rankings. But I do think it's genuinely interesting that this team seemed to consistently out-perform expectations, both of conventional wisdom and of fancy statistics, straight through both the regular season and the playoffs. They out-performed what everyone expected pre-season. They out-performed their pythagorean for the season. They won 108 games yet were somehow treated as underdogs against both the Yankees and Astros. They were favored in only 5 of 14 post-season games per fangraphs and went 11-3. Maybe it's just luck; most champions get there with some luck. That is definitely possible. But there seemed to be something uncanny in their performance that allowed them to always come up big when they had to, and never miss an opportunity to strike - not just in the playoffs but throughout much of the year. I'm not trying to invoke any magic pixie team chemistry dust to explain it; but I think there may well be some causal factors involved in this team's success that haven't been fully sussed out yet. (One very speculative theory: it's interesting that they differed from so many teams in having more of a get-on-base/keep-the-pressure-on offensive approach, rather than the three-true-outcomes approach that's become so dominant. I wonder if the stats are missing something, and by extension teams that chase the stats are missing something, about the cumulative effect of a Red Sox-style attack - a psychological or physical toll that it has on opposing pitchers, maybe. This could also explain why the CW consistently underrated them, since they didn't have, e.g., the Yankeean sort of power numbers that commentators tend to go gaga for. Just a thought...)
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Post by awall on Oct 29, 2018 18:06:37 GMT -5
I still want to know how many time a WS has ended with 6 straight Ks. What bullpen domination.
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Post by geostorm on Oct 29, 2018 18:15:49 GMT -5
The last narrative that's completely gone is the Jon Lester versus Price narrative. "I wish we could have resigned Lester instead." David Price decided to sign here. Jon Lester decided to walk away, even when the Sox upped their offer and made it a fair one like Lester said when he originally wanted to resign here (135-140 million in free agency offered by the Sox). David Price is now legend in Boston like Lester was. Actually, isn't "the last narrative that's completely gone", is that the Red Sox can't win a World Series, without Papi, finally, FINALLY accomplishing that on the 100th anniversary of the "last one"?!
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Post by geostorm on Oct 29, 2018 18:24:59 GMT -5
The joy for me of watching this team is not the rote, mechanistic exercise of projecting how sustainable the performance was. There is certainly analytical value in that, and plenty of time in the offseason to start thinking about how 2018 informs 2019 and beyond (and yes, it's impossible to resist slipping into it now and then, even on the day after a World Series win). No, Joe Kelly will not sustain his Super Saiyan form, Alex Cora's Midas touch will wear off, Eovaldi and Price won't be able to sustain awe-inspiring performances on short rest through sheer power of will. But for a few nights in October, they did all that, and it was awesome. I vote for this to be narrated at the beginning of the 2018 WS DVD. Wish I could like it 100 times. I'm pretty damn concerned about next year's World Series hangover, because you know there is a price to pay for these pitchers who threw way too much this season. But the memories of 2018 will help me get by no matter what happens. I'll still be smiling. I'm sure the players wouldn't have it any other way. I'm so proud of our team. I'm even more glad that we don't have to do the mental gymnastics of having to root for someone like Manny Machado because he was on our team. I love all of our guys, every one of them. When you do get around to this, appreciate thoughts/analysis regarding whether the SP/Rover model was at least in part sustainable, this year, and perhaps difficult to replicate, but for Sale and Price having thrown well below their respective norms, in "pitch count" for the year, coming into the playoffs?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2018 18:25:19 GMT -5
Also re: the bullpen: Yeah, they did a bit better than anyone could have reasonably expected. But not that much better. Joe Kelly, yeah, he was incredibly good. But Kimbrel was a garbage fire, so that, at best, cancels out. What really made the difference were the appearances by Porcello, Eovaldi, Price, Rodriguez, and Sale in relief.
Those of us who were arguing that the bullpen was not a huge concern back during the debates of high summer made, as I remember it, 3 main arguments:
1) The bullpen wasn't as bad as people were making it out to be. 2) There weren't superior options available on the trade market. 3) It would matter less in the playoffs, when the bullpen would be shortened and starters would be able to move to the pen.
Yeah, the bullpen did better than could be expected, but it did so precisely in a way that vindicated these three arguments: (1) there was simply enough talent there that a couple of over-performances (Brasier and Kelly) could compensate for a severe under-performance (Kimbrel), which is in line with the first two arguments above; (2) weak links like Workman and Hembree were nowhere to be seen, but the starters doing relief duty were a huge factor. Probably none of us expected Cora to lean on them as much as he did - but I bet Cora did, and that surely factored into the team's lack of trade deadline moves. (Cora himself alluded to this in post-game comments.)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 18:35:23 GMT -5
The Sox got fortunate with the bullpen imo.
The only reason why we didn't see Hembree, Workman, or Pomeranz is because no playoff series went past 5 games and there was only 1 extra inning game.
It could have burned the Sox if they had more extra inning games or more games in general. The Sox played to win and had a total of 3 losses in playoffs. That played a huge part in it.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2018 19:01:18 GMT -5
The Sox got fortunate with the bullpen imo. The only reason why we didn't see Hembree, Workman, or Pomeranz is because no playoff series went past 5 games and there was only 1 extra inning game. It could have burned the Sox if they had more extra inning games or more games in general. The Sox played to win and had a total of 3 losses in playoffs. That played a huge part in it. Yeah, and the Titanic missed every iceberg except for one... You can't seriously argue that the bullpen wasn't pressed in the World Series.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on Oct 29, 2018 19:05:19 GMT -5
I really don't care either way, but I'm sure partisan sniping from one or both sides will ensue no matter what they choose to do, and I'm not looking forward to that. Politics is cancer. Good job media for creating that. The real division of people is every single one of the citizens vs. its corrupt government (no matter who is running it). Please don’t pretend to be dismissing politics while actually promoting your own brand of politics. Politics is on lots of our minds now but it’s best to save it for other venues.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 19:17:39 GMT -5
The Sox got fortunate with the bullpen imo. The only reason why we didn't see Hembree, Workman, or Pomeranz is because no playoff series went past 5 games and there was only 1 extra inning game. It could have burned the Sox if they had more extra inning games or more games in general. The Sox played to win and had a total of 3 losses in playoffs. That played a huge part in it. Yeah, and the Titanic missed every iceberg except for one... You can't seriously argue that the bullpen wasn't pressed in the World Series. I do not think it wasn't pressed a ton because of the starters ability to come into all but 3 games in the postseason, which might be a record the past 25 years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 29, 2018 19:40:23 GMT -5
The joy for me of watching this team is not the rote, mechanistic exercise of projecting how sustainable the performance was. There is certainly analytical value in that, and plenty of time in the offseason to start thinking about how 2018 informs 2019 and beyond (and yes, it's impossible to resist slipping into it now and then, even on the day after a World Series win). No, Joe Kelly will not sustain his Super Saiyan form, Alex Cora's Midas touch will wear off, Eovaldi and Price won't be able to sustain awe-inspiring performances on short rest through sheer power of will. But for a few nights in October, they did all that, and it was awesome. Call me crazy, but it's a lot less awesome if you assume that the outcome was never in doubt because the Red Sox are obviously so much better than every other team. Also y'all thought this team was doomed 36 hours ago so please miss me with the "OMG HOW COULD ANYONE RANK THE DODGERS AHEAD OF THE RED SOX" stuff. y'all ? y'alln't ! Even during the long game I viewed Eovaldi as being an advantage. We burned up 1 pitcher. And kudos to jmei, he summed it nicely.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 29, 2018 20:02:36 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Oct 29, 2018 20:15:06 GMT -5
Should they visit the White House? I hope not I really don't care either way, but I'm sure partisan sniping from one or both sides will ensue no matter what they choose to do, and I'm not looking forward to that. Anyone turning down a trip to the White House is not thinking clearly. First it’s a rare honor very few Americans get. If you like the president, all the better, but the history of the place and the opportunity to see some rooms that few people see should not be turned down. And if you don’t agree with the president or his policies, when else will you get a chance to speak to him directly about them? The opportunity exists and one never knows what will happen. You don’t get anywhere by turning you back on someone or shouting at them. We only find common ground - and there’s always some common ground - by speaking with each other.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 29, 2018 20:16:38 GMT -5
Also y'all thought this team was doomed 36 hours ago so please miss me with the "OMG HOW COULD ANYONE RANK THE DODGERS AHEAD OF THE RED SOX" stuff. You're right, a proper way to celebrate a title while looking forward to the future is acknowledging that other teams are better than us.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 29, 2018 20:56:49 GMT -5
Also re: the bullpen: Yeah, they did a bit better than anyone could have reasonably expected. But not that much better. Joe Kelly, yeah, he was incredibly good. But Kimbrel was a garbage fire, so that, at best, cancels out. What really made the difference were the appearances by Porcello, Eovaldi, Price, Rodriguez, and Sale in relief. Those of us who were arguing that the bullpen was not a huge concern back during the debates of high summer made, as I remember it, 3 main arguments: 1) The bullpen wasn't as bad as people were making it out to be. 2) There weren't superior options available on the trade market. 3) It would matter less in the playoffs, when the bullpen would be shortened and starters would be able to move to the pen.Yeah, the bullpen did better than could be expected, but it did so precisely in a way that vindicated these three arguments: (1) there was simply enough talent there that a couple of over-performances (Brasier and Kelly) could compensate for a severe under-performance (Kimbrel), which is in line with the first two arguments above; (2) weak links like Workman and Hembree were nowhere to be seen, but the starters doing relief duty were a huge factor. Probably none of us expected Cora to lean on them as much as he did - but I bet Cora did, and that surely factored into the team's lack of trade deadline moves. (Cora himself alluded to this in post-game comments.) The thing that is most important to remember is that the starters were also "the bullpen." That's why the bullpen wasn't as bad as the media had mentioned. As fans we can never predict how much to use the starters only that we should be open for anything from an open-minded coach. If the SOx should sign Eovaldi (I'd be surprised they get him.), then there is no reason the team can't use the starters the same way next year. Only this time Sale, Wright and ERod pitch more innings. And I'm not sure analytics can ever account for this, can it? Because you are basically introducing a component of the game that has been rarely used throughout the season? I love the use of the starters for the bullpen.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 29, 2018 23:22:13 GMT -5
The perceived need for relief talent took neither the reality of post-season series - days off and it's all over when it's over so use what you have - into account. The names that were thrown out were no better, and in some cases worse, than what the team had on hand, a point Eric made over and over. They had everything they needed on hand already - some board members believed that and said it out loud. The proof is in the results. They blew threw the competition like a windstorm. Just a great team effort.
I don’t fully agree with this. Yeah, I think the weakness of the bullpen was somewhat overstated, but at the same time, the performance that they ultimately delivered was above and beyond any reasonable expectation. Like no one before hand was saying “the Red Sox bullpen is fine because Joe Kelly is about to go on the run of his life”, and he was hardly the only example there. What we saw from the bullpen was not something you could ever anticipate nor is it something you can replicate. And it’s pure hindsight to look at it now and believe it could have happened no other way. It's absolutely true that the bullpen was way better than anyone expected, but that's part of the reason why we went 11-3 against the toughest trio of playoff opponents any team has ever beaten, instead of, say, 11-5. You're not just moving the goalposts here, you're moving them to Saskatchewan. You'd have an argument here if Joe Kelly has saved an elimination game, or pitched out of an inherited runner situation in the 8th inning of a 1-run elimination game, or so on. But Kelly was actually the least valuable player on the entire team in the ALCS, by Win Probability Added. And how'd we do? In general, if you argue that "X may be so bad that it will cost us," and X turns out to be significantly better than average, then you begin to have a hard time showing you were correct. The better the actual results turn out to be, the harder it becomes to justify the concern as having been warranted. When the result is terrific, you need a heck of a lot of data points saying that things broke hugely better than they expected.
Joe Kelly in the regular season averaged .015 WPA per appearance. In the postseason, he averaged .024. What folks don't realize is that one reliever being 60% better than expected doesn't have a huge impact over 9 outings. He was worth less than a tenth of a win more than expected; if you round up, he allowed 1 fewer run. That he avoided giving us a heart attack by not pitching himself into and out of trouble does not actually affect the end results.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 29, 2018 23:53:00 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but it's a lot less awesome if you assume that the outcome was never in doubt because the Red Sox are obviously so much better than every other team. Also y'all thought this team was doomed 36 hours ago so please miss me with the "OMG HOW COULD ANYONE RANK THE DODGERS AHEAD OF THE RED SOX" stuff. I do not care, nor do I have thoughts or opinions about, 2019 team rankings. But I do think it's genuinely interesting that this team seemed to consistently out-perform expectations, both of conventional wisdom and of fancy statistics, straight through both the regular season and the playoffs. They out-performed what everyone expected pre-season. They out-performed their pythagorean for the season. They won 108 games yet were somehow treated as underdogs against both the Yankees and Astros. They were favored in only 5 of 14 post-season games per fangraphs and went 11-3. Maybe it's just luck; most champions get there with some luck. That is definitely possible. But there seemed to be something uncanny in their performance that allowed them to always come up big when they had to, and never miss an opportunity to strike - not just in the playoffs but throughout much of the year. I'm not trying to invoke any magic pixie team chemistry dust to explain it; but I think there may well be some causal factors involved in this team's success that haven't been fully sussed out yet. (One very speculative theory: it's interesting that they differed from so many teams in having more of a get-on-base/keep-the-pressure-on offensive approach, rather than the three-true-outcomes approach that's become so dominant. I wonder if the stats are missing something, and by extension teams that chase the stats are missing something, about the cumulative effect of a Red Sox-style attack - a psychological or physical toll that it has on opposing pitchers, maybe. This could also explain why the CW consistently underrated them, since they didn't have, e.g., the Yankeean sort of power numbers that commentators tend to go gaga for. Just a thought...) There were two separate, real, things.
Your parenthetical speculation is very close to what I think the first factor is. They are simply a team that hits elite pitching much better than most. There's a whole story behind that, that I plan to tell tomorrow if I get a chance (I didn't today).
The other thing concerns their results with RISP and RISP with 2 outs. I plan to double-check the numbers tomorrow, but I have these non-RSIP vs. RISP OPS splits for the three series:
DS: .666 / 1.118 CS: .566 / 1.184 WS: .682 / .978. (The latter was killed by going 0/6 in game 3 when their bodies were literally physiologically asleep.)
They just proved that clutch hitting can be real. Again, the explanation within the next day or two.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 30, 2018 8:54:55 GMT -5
What an incredible season, playoffs. It was more than I could have ever hoped for following my favorite sports team ever. 4 titles in 15 years, it seems an embarrassment of riches from where I started as a fan. Thanks to everyone for sharing it with me. I stand ready to be there next year to watch this great team. At this point, all the pains of the past are just forgotten memories. Prior to the 86 year drought the Sox had 5 titles in 16 years. Next year could match that. Sort of like bookends!
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 30, 2018 9:37:21 GMT -5
What an incredible season, playoffs. It was more than I could have ever hoped for following my favorite sports team ever. 4 titles in 15 years, it seems an embarrassment of riches from where I started as a fan. Thanks to everyone for sharing it with me. I stand ready to be there next year to watch this great team. At this point, all the pains of the past are just forgotten memories. Prior to the 86 year drought the Sox had 5 titles in 16 years. Next year could match that. Sort of like bookends! As long as that doesn't mean we'd have to wait 86 after that, then I'm good with plan.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 9:39:58 GMT -5
Prior to the 86 year drought the Sox had 5 titles in 16 years. Next year could match that. Sort of like bookends! As long as that doesn't mean we'd have to wait 86 after that, then I'm good with plan. All they have to do is not sell Mookie Betts to the Yankees.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 10:11:43 GMT -5
I’ve been watching the 2004 and 2007 WS recaps and besides the sheer enjoyment I get from watching them, I get really annoyed that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz aren’t going to be in the HOF. Such a joke.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 30, 2018 11:06:43 GMT -5
I’ve been watching the 2004 and 2007 WS recaps and besides the sheer enjoyment I get from watching them, I get really annoyed that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz aren’t going to be in the HOF. Such a joke. Papi will make it. Second or third ballot. He doesn't have the WAR but all the traditional voters will vote for him and a good percentage of those who do look at WAR will realize it's not accurate in his case.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 30, 2018 11:36:03 GMT -5
I’ve been watching the 2004 and 2007 WS recaps and besides the sheer enjoyment I get from watching them, I get really annoyed that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz aren’t going to be in the HOF. Such a joke. Papi will make it. Second or third ballot. He doesn't have the WAR but all the traditional voters will vote for him and a good percentage of those who do look at WAR will realize it's not accurate in his case. Ortiz will make the hall of fame. He’s one of those guys who was generally hailed as a hall of Famer before he retired.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 12:14:08 GMT -5
Hope you guys are right but the Mitchell report mention regardless of how bogus the report is will hurt him to some degree, plus the DH thing. I’ll be happy if he makes it but pissed Manny isn’t with him. Arguably the best right handed hitter of his generation plus big time in the playoffs. Guy should be a shoe in.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 30, 2018 12:41:14 GMT -5
Hope you guys are right but the Mitchell report mention regardless of how bogus the report is will hurt him to some degree, plus the DH thing. I’ll be happy if he makes it but pissed Manny isn’t with him. Arguably the best right handed hitter of his generation plus big time in the playoffs. Guy should be a shoe in. I'm okay with Manny not getting in. I tend to give guys a pass for doing steroids in the '90s or early '00s when it was the wild west, but Manny got busted for the second time in 2011. At that point, you're straight up cheating and IMO can't really complain about HOF voters keeping you out.
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