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Red Sox vs. Dodgers 2018 World Series Gameday Thread
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 25, 2018 14:43:32 GMT -5
Another thing to think a bit about is the pitcher's spot in the lineup and how that might effect the decision making. I know we all remember Workman hitting in 2013, so I'll be curious to see how Cora navigates those decisions with regards to when to double switch and what pitchers come in when.
It'll mostly come into play when trying to get a reliever multiple innings I would think. Be an interesting wrinkle if they used an opener of sorts in G4.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 25, 2018 15:02:36 GMT -5
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Slow down there Tex. ERod is one thing, Pomeranz is quite another. Lol this did make me spit out my soda. I'd be nervous about even using him as a situational lefty, ideally we don't even use him but if we have do its in a mop up situation. I don't mind having an innings eater in the pen the way we have needed to use our top pen guys so much but just having Pomeranz out there as opposed to Wright scares me.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 25, 2018 15:04:12 GMT -5
Another thing to think a bit about is the pitcher's spot in the lineup and how that might effect the decision making. I know we all remember Workman hitting in 2013, so I'll be curious to see how Cora navigates those decisions with regards to when to double switch and what pitchers come in when. It'll mostly come into play when trying to get a reliever multiple innings I would think. Be an interesting wrinkle if they used an opener of sorts in G4. Think double switches galore here. This is where we might see Mookie at second base for a couple of innings, but probably not to start the game.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 25, 2018 16:28:59 GMT -5
I mean it really is a no-brainer to take every win you can get over worrying about who the game 4 starter is. Every single game is almost played as an elimination game. If the question is, "Hey, should we win this game or should we set up the best possible starter for game 4?" then yeah, sure. But that's obviously not the question. Using Eovaldi instead of Barnes might have increased our odds of winning yesterday from, I don't know, 87% to 89%. Is a 2% improvement in winning one game worth losing Eovaldi as a starter in what could actually be an elimination game? And remember, you're potentially losing him as a starter in game 7.
I admit, I'm devil's advocating a little here, because honestly I do trust Cora to handle the pitching roles - he's proved his mettle this postseason as far as I'm concerned. But I just can't quite get myself to buy into the logic.
I guess by bringing in Eovaldi, you still have Barnes to use if either he or Kimbrel faltered. You wouldn't want to get Eovaldi ready quickly. There are probably 100 things that we don't know about that went into their decision making.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2018 16:37:10 GMT -5
What they actually did was simpler and, I think, much more interesting that what they report there (combining the curve and slider into a new pitch intermediate between the two).
For each of the last four years his slider was a more effective pitch than his curve.
This year he was throwing the slider at 88.3 and the curve at 84.5. The slider broke 3.7" away from a RH batter and -1.9" below neutral (versus +8.6" on his FB, so 10.5" of relative sink), while the curve broke 5.3" away and -9.2" down.
They junked the slider starting 9/22, and his curve velo went up to 86.2, pretty much halfway to the slider velo. There's no significant difference in movement (0.3" more of fade, 0.3" less of sink, nowhere near statistically significant).
Prior to the change, he'd thrown 157 curves and was averaging -0.96 runs per 100 pitches (relative to the average pitch). He threw 20 in his four outings after junking the slider, and averaged +4.74 (and +6.41 over the last 3 games, after a below average result in his first game with the new harder version). We don't have this data for the postseason, but he's thrown it 34 times in 4 outings.
How to explain this? Pitches other than a FB are slowed down by their grip and release. (I'm not sure how the physics of that works, actually!) The curve is supposed to be an off-speed pitch with a velocity significantly less than the slider. That Kelly is now throwing it harder indicates that he was consciously slowing it down to achieve an off-speed effect, and the lack of change in spin means the grip is unchanged, so he was slowing his arm down to slow the pitch down. Not only does that make the pitch easier to read, but interspersing pitches with a different arm speed cannot help maintain consistent mechanics.
I actually don't think he needs to junk the slider -- which is actually a good pitch. I think that junking it entirely was done just to simplify things and free his mind up to throw the curve as hard as he could. It's perfectly possible that he'll reintroduce the slider sometime next year. In the meantime, not throwing 5 or so pitches every outing with a different arm speed should be expected to help his mechanical consistency and hence his command and control. In the regular season it didn't happen at all -- 53% strikes, 5 SO and 3 BB in 14 batters. So it seems as he had other mechanical flaws to work on. He threw 61% strikes in his first 3 post-season outings, facing 17 hitters with 2 SO and 0 BB. In his last three, he's thrown an exceptional 72% strikes with 5 SO and 0 BB in 11 TBF.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 25, 2018 16:44:55 GMT -5
I’m more than ok with this. Play to win not to lose. If you have a lead that’s 4 runs or less in LA come the 8th inning go with Eovaldi and start Pomeranz game 4. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Slow down there Tex. ERod is one thing, Pomeranz is quite another. Ha at this point I’d prefer Pomeranz and that’s simply because he has the shiny new toy thing going for him. “He’s throwing 94/95 in the pen” now. Erod would get shelled.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 25, 2018 16:59:03 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2018 17:04:53 GMT -5
No, we did not get lucky. The Wright injury was a lot less likely than the offsetting Kelly resurgence, which I'm pretty sure I said all along was essentially a coin toss.
I didn't think it would be necessary to explain one more time that the folks who thought we didn't need a reliever were 100% correct from the beginning, but here goes. And note that I don't think I'm always right: I hated the Sale trade and was 100% wrong about it, for instance.
The argument was threefold.
1) Barnes and Brasier are better than Soria, Familia, et al. Not by a lot, but by enough to make the new guy the #3 option as the setup guy. This was incontrovertibly right then, it is now, and I don't recall anyone arguing otherwise. (Barnes did have a fatigue slump after the deadline; they backed off on his usage, and he's back to being that guy again.)
2) There will be one or more starters in the bullpen, and that will bump the acquisition down to the #4 setup guy. Wright came back and was going to be so good that he may have slotted ahead of Barnes and Brasier, and then unexpectedly got hurt. E-Rod was so inconsistent after his return that he's been used sparingly in relief (in part also because we saw so many RHB in the first two rounds), but he got an immense out in game 1 and will very likely have a larger role in the remaining games. And Cora was able to fill the Wright role with Eovaldi, Sale, and Porcello pitching on their side-session days, with terrific results (including Price fixing himself while warming up to do that). None of us foresaw the extent of that, but it was always on the table, and so in retrospect this argument that you were actually acquiring a #4 setup guy was even stronger than it seemed at the time.
3) There's a 50% chance (meaning nobody really knows anything) that Kelly will return to being a total stud, but if you acquire a guy, he probably will never get a chance to re-establish himself. (In fact, I thought at the time that they'd have to trade him, but now I think they may have put Hembree on the DL with mild shoulder fatigue. But in that case, Kelly likely never gets a chance to shine.) There were smaller chances that Thornburg, Pomeranz, or Workman would step up and be a solid to excellent 4th option. Between the bunch, the odds were probably better than 50% that we already had a guy as good as the potential acquisition, or better, to be the #4 set-up option.
In general, you're not going to trade prospects from the #29 farm system in baseball to get a guy to be the #4 set-up option in the post-season. When when your internal options for that role are actually promising, it makes even less sense. If Wright had been healthy and Kelly had never turned it around, then we're just as good as we are now. If both possibilities had been negative, then E-Rod would have been given a shot at it, and in that role, any downgrade from Soria / Familia (which is probably non-existent) would, again, not be worth the acquisition price.
I mean, the worst case scenarios here have the absence of an extra guy costing you a run at some point in a series. One run is not looking likely to decide any of these series.
If you think Joe Kelly having maybe the best 6 game stretch of his career, after the way he had pitched for the last 4 months was 50% I don't know what to tell you. He's gone 7 and 1/3 innings without a walk. Going to guess that is the longest of the season, heck this might be the best stretch of control from him ever as a reliever. Yet you think it was a coin flip? After an ERA over 8, guys hitting. 324 against him and a WHIP of almost 2 the last month of the season. Heck I want to say this is like 10% type stuff but it might be lower than that. It can certainly happen, but its crazy good luck, not a coin flip. It's not just him either, its everyone all at the sametime. Just like 2003, when the whole bullpen got hot. Hembree has pitched well, Barnes bounced back, Braisers arm didn't fall off after a massive innings increase, Eovaldi bounced back after a rough stretch, ERod got healthy, Kimbrel while looking like crap for the first two rounds was perfect in save situations. Given the competition this is by far the best stretch the bullpen has had all year. Kimbrel pitching the first two inning save of his career without close to his best stuff. This is a magical run, not a dominant bullpen just pitching like they did all year. I just have to ask in what world is Wright having knee issues after knee surgery less likely than Kelly having one of best stretches of his career? Didn't he have the same surgery as Pedroia? They guy that basically missed the whole year. The whole point of getting another bullpen arm was to reduce risk if everything didn't go our way. So we wouldn't need a magical run of almost everything going right to win a world series. We got the magical run, so its kinda a moot point now. At the sametime this isn't some coin flip crap either, its a crazy lucky run after our bullpen was one of the worst in the league for the second half of the season. Type of crap that happens once ever 15 years. It seems as if you just pick out phrases that you can attack, rather than trying to rebut, you know, the actual argument. The parenthetical note about nobody knowing anything about Kelly was meant to indicate that the 50% chance of being a total stud was an exaggeration. It may have been as high as 40%, though. But the conclusion of that point is that the odds were greater than 50% that he (or someone else) would be a solid #4 set-up guy -- the guy who doesn't even pitch if your starter goes 6 -- so that replacing Kelly with Soria or Familia made no sense. The opening bit of hyperbole was just to stress that he had upside way beyond those guys. Yes, it's absolutely a pleasant, giddy surprise that we're seeing Kelly at his best. But he's been good enough to be a #4 set-up man more often than not in his career, and that was the role you were having a panic attack over. That he might be great was only an extra reason to keep him in that role.
BTW, did you notice how well Jeremy Jeffress pitched for the Brewers this post-season? He allowed a .530 OPS in the regular season. In September, he faced 37 hitters and gave up 3 singles and 3 walks, fanning 15, for a .280 OPS. He was brought in to save game 1 of the ALDS and gave up 3 hits and a SF to 7 hitters, allowing 2 R for a blown save. He ended up with a 1.070 OPS allowed.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 25, 2018 17:04:57 GMT -5
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Slow down there Tex. ERod is one thing, Pomeranz is quite another. Ha at this point I’d prefer Pomeranz and that’s simply because he has the shiny new toy thing going for him. “He’s throwing 94/95 in the pen” now. Erod would get shelled. ERod would get shelled more than Pomeranz? I highly doubt it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2018 17:27:48 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox. He had a .500 GB%, ranking 15th of 152 P with 90+ IP. That's worrisome because some of our guys have not fared well against GB pitchers. And now I shall resist the urge to look that up in more detail.
He got hit hard his first 2 post-season outings, but maybe you can blame the first on nerves and the second on 7 days rest. He was good, not great in his third start, with some sequencing luck, and a quick hook after 4.2 IP. He's on regular rest tomorrow. I think it's a pretty even matchup once you factory in the offenses.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 25, 2018 17:41:12 GMT -5
Ha at this point I’d prefer Pomeranz and that’s simply because he has the shiny new toy thing going for him. “He’s throwing 94/95 in the pen” now. Erod would get shelled. ERod would get shelled more than Pomeranz? I highly doubt it. When was the last time Pomeranz had a good start? I'm not sure he had one the entire season. I think the best he ever did was like giving up 2 runs in 4 2/3rds in mop up duty against the Orioles or some shit.
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Post by h11233 on Oct 25, 2018 17:57:11 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox. He had a .500 GB%, ranking 15th of 152 P with 90+ IP. That's worrisome because some of our guys have not fared well against GB pitchers. And now I shall resist the urge to look that up in more detail. He got hit hard his first 2 post-season outings, but maybe you can blame the first on nerves and the second on 7 days rest. He was good, not great in his third start, with some sequencing luck, and a quick hook after 4.2 IP. He's on regular rest tomorrow. I think it's a pretty even matchup once you factory in the offenses.
I remember when the series was about to start, you made a post analyzing (I think) Mookie's (and maybe others) success against GB pitchers. It was in regards to Kershaw and Ryu specifically, I don't think you mentioned Buehler... I don't remember exactly what your post said, but I remember it gave me a good feeling about our chances against the GB pitchers. Maybe it's different with Buehler because the other two are lefties
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 25, 2018 18:09:59 GMT -5
I guess there are people seriously questioning whether JDM and his sore ankle will be able to play the field by tomorrow. That would be a huge blow if he was limited to just pinch hitting duties.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 25, 2018 18:18:52 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox. Anyone? Anyone?
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 25, 2018 18:33:20 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox. Yea he’s filthy. The starter with the best stuff in this series. He’s just super young.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 25, 2018 18:35:35 GMT -5
Anyone have a scouting report on Bueller? I don't watch NL games unless the teams are playing the Sox. He had a .500 GB%, ranking 15th of 152 P with 90+ IP. That's worrisome because some of our guys have not fared well against GB pitchers. And now I shall resist the urge to look that up in more detail. He got hit hard his first 2 post-season outings, but maybe you can blame the first on nerves and the second on 7 days rest. He was good, not great in his third start, with some sequencing luck, and a quick hook after 4.2 IP. He's on regular rest tomorrow. I think it's a pretty even matchup once you factory in the offenses.
Thanks. If we’re talking nerves, he’s got the weight of the entire series for his team. So, no pressure. If they can get three runs on him in the first, Roberts may pull him right there.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 25, 2018 18:38:33 GMT -5
ERod would get shelled more than Pomeranz? I highly doubt it. When was the last time Pomeranz had a good start? I'm not sure he had one the entire season. I think the best he ever did was like giving up 2 runs in 4 2/3rds in mop up duty against the Orioles or some shit. I am mostly joking and we will never find out who’d do better and I’m not sure who’s equipped to go more innings right now. Pomeranz hasn’t been healthy all year, if he finally is then I’d have about the same faith in him; Erod hasn’t looked good lately so my confidence is low on him not that I have any in Pomeranz either. I’ve been his biggest hater since they traded for him .
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Post by soxjim on Oct 25, 2018 20:44:18 GMT -5
I’m more than ok with this. Play to win not to lose. If you have a lead that’s 4 runs or less in LA come the 8th inning go with Eovaldi and start Pomeranz game 4. Going into the 8th inning with a 2-run lead yesterday, the Red Sox' win expectancy was 85%. With a 4-run lead it'd be, what, 95%? You'd burn Eovaldi in that situation and make game 4 a - gulp - Pomeranz start? When there are other adequate options available? I don't get that logic. Yeah, you "play to win" in the World Series. Obviously you don't treat it like the regular season. But you still have to play to win four games. If the game is within a run either way, I'd consider Eovaldi, but that's about it. Why can't you start ERod? He's pitched one-thrid of an inning in the W/S.
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Post by patford on Oct 25, 2018 20:45:34 GMT -5
Ha at this point I’d prefer Pomeranz and that’s simply because he has the shiny new toy thing going for him. “He’s throwing 94/95 in the pen” now. Erod would get shelled. ERod would get shelled more than Pomeranz? I highly doubt it. I'm intrigued they added Pomeranz. There were many other options they could have gone with and I don't think the Sox tend to work on hunches these days or stubbornness. I feel like they must have seen something in working with him over the past few weeks.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 25, 2018 21:08:24 GMT -5
You're splitting hairs. Houston used their starters aggressively. Cora is using his aggressively. The sox/Farell used Lackey from the bullpen. DOes it matter last year that Farell also used Sale in game 4 vs Houston? Regardless of how unprecedented it is, I could see it being more of a general trend in upcoming years, maybe only sporadically in the regular season, but certainly in the postseason. If the baseball trend is to yank starters earlier with regard to both total pitches and times through the lineup, that is going to create more relief innings. So it would seem that, if a starter is going to throw fewer pitches on his starting assignment, couldn't he throw an inning of relief sometimes between starts, especially in times where he throws fewer pitches than usual in his previous start? That being said, given that Eovaldi has pitched on back-to-back days, I'd almost rather have him available for relief work tomorrow if it indicates that the Sox are holding a lead looking to go up 3-0. T hen if the Sox get to 3-0, pitch ERod/Pomeranz/Hembree/whatever in game 4, and if that doesn't get it done, reset for game 5. Game 4 makes sense as a "giveaway" game because it allows the business end of the pen game/offday/game/offday/game/offday/game from games 2-6 with all hands on deck for game 7 if necessary. I agree with what you're saying but only to certain extent. The parts in bold I can't agree with. The Red Sox were and are a juggernaut. They could lose this W/S but they are still an amazing team. What we know to be true with the Sox is that there are no "giveaway" games. Thsi team is an all-time great team. Even if they lose-- this team was still super. We heard that game 5 vs Houston was probably a throwaway game yet Price beat Verlander. Starting ERod in game 4 is not a give-away.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 25, 2018 21:16:48 GMT -5
I mean it really is a no-brainer to take every win you can get over worrying about who the game 4 starter is. Every single game is almost played as an elimination game. If the question is, "Hey, should we win this game or should we set up the best possible starter for game 4?" then yeah, sure. But that's obviously not the question. Using Eovaldi instead of Barnes might have increased our odds of winning yesterday from, I don't know, 87% to 89%. Is a 2% improvement in winning one game worth losing Eovaldi as a starter in what could actually be an elimination game? And remember, you're potentially losing him as a starter in game 7.
I admit, I'm devil's advocating a little here, because honestly I do trust Cora to handle the pitching roles - he's proved his mettle this postseason as far as I'm concerned. But I just can't quite get myself to buy into the logic.
You're looking into 85% vs 87%. But then as other suggest Eovaldi has been unhittable while Barnes did have an injury before the playoffs. Maybe Eovaldi is more automatic while Barnes needs so rest so he can be better prepared for games 3 and 4? Therefore maybe the odds for games 2-4 are much better if you throw your best players in game 2? Anyways, I'm for using your best because I don't trust %'s. What has been the Red Sox % of winning so many of the road games?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 25, 2018 22:51:11 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2018 23:04:51 GMT -5
He had a .500 GB%, ranking 15th of 152 P with 90+ IP. That's worrisome because some of our guys have not fared well against GB pitchers. And now I shall resist the urge to look that up in more detail. He got hit hard his first 2 post-season outings, but maybe you can blame the first on nerves and the second on 7 days rest. He was good, not great in his third start, with some sequencing luck, and a quick hook after 4.2 IP. He's on regular rest tomorrow. I think it's a pretty even matchup once you factory in the offenses.
I remember when the series was about to start, you made a post analyzing (I think) Mookie's (and maybe others) success against GB pitchers. It was in regards to Kershaw and Ryu specifically, I don't think you mentioned Buehler... I don't remember exactly what your post said, but I remember it gave me a good feeling about our chances against the GB pitchers. Maybe it's different with Buehler because the other two are lefties Yeah, I just looked at LHP. The spreadsheet is all set up, so I I can very quickly look at RHP tonight or tomorrow if I get the time (which seems dubious, however).
In fact, I can do that for everyone, but the right way to do it is to use the last three years of data (at least), and I'm not even doing that with Mookie. In his case, it seems to make sense because it's not clear that the previous two seasons would be predictive.
Wow, check these OPS splits out:
Year FB Neu GB 2016 .757 .985 .942 2017 .641 .847 1.027 2018 1.191 1.058 .852
So I think the "mere" .852 OPS was likely not a real decline. And his breakout year was entirely from improving dramatically against FB pitchers and significantly against average ones.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 26, 2018 5:09:52 GMT -5
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 26, 2018 5:34:28 GMT -5
Mookie is a franchise player and person. Shouldn’t be any hesitation throwing a lot of $ at this kid and locking him up.
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