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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 12, 2018 22:15:52 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2018 11:43:55 GMT -5
Our farm system is pretty brutal right now, and there's no denying it. Most of the projectable talent is in A ball and below, which means a lot of Powerball tickets. Sox farm is especially thin in outfielders, up the middle players and first basemen. Surplus at 3rd but no one knows yet if Dalbec or Chavis could be MLB starters. And, as always, pitchers who project to be anything beyond a #5 starter right now always hard to find. There are a couple guys who may prove out and become more than that, and Jay Groome may have a ceiling as a #2 but he'll have to get to at least AA ball before he can start proving the potential.
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Post by tookme55 on Nov 13, 2018 16:21:49 GMT -5
Good stuff. I would love to see an 'expanded' version which includes major leaguers not arbitratration eligible. Look at the Yankees. They are in bottom third. But they are getting 'penalized' for several young players playing in the majors. I would basically include players with less than 3 years experience that's not eligible for arbitration.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 15, 2018 12:03:16 GMT -5
Good stuff. I would love to see an 'expanded' version which includes major leaguers not arbitratration eligible. Look at the Yankees. They are in bottom third. But they are getting 'penalized' for several young players playing in the majors. I would basically include players with less than 3 years experience that's not eligible for arbitration. That's one way of looking at it, but I prefer to judge a farm system's ability to dip into for trades and to replace expensive players with league minimum players in the future. I mean you can trade those young MLB players to upgrade, but that's also leaving a hole that has to be filled so it's counter productive and not the same thing as prospects in the minors. The other way it's counter productive is that you're almost assuredly adding salary when trading those players.
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Post by Canseco on Nov 15, 2018 12:14:24 GMT -5
I hope DD, coming off a world championship, can discipline himself a bit, as we really need to let the farm system recover from previous deals (Kimbrel, Sale, etc.). Step one is pocketing the pick from Kimbrel’s departure.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 15, 2018 13:21:00 GMT -5
Imagine being the Orioles and having a farm system that is nearly as terrible as ours but being, you know, the Orioles.
And I'm going to play some devil's advocate here and say that the farm system is bad, but it can certainly improve without having to add anyone since there are so many lottery tickets with legit upside that at least one is probably bound to be a hit.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 15, 2018 13:25:53 GMT -5
Imagine being the Orioles and having a farm system that is nearly as terrible as ours but being, you know, the Orioles. And I'm going to play some devil's advocate here and say that the farm system is bad, but it can certainly improve without having to add anyone since there are so many lottery tickets with legit upside that at least one is probably bound to be a hit. Isn't that also true for every single team though? Or are you saying we have more lottery tickets? In order for the farm system to improve, I think they need to improve more than other teams' farm systems.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 15, 2018 13:31:50 GMT -5
Imagine being the Orioles and having a farm system that is nearly as terrible as ours but being, you know, the Orioles. And I'm going to play some devil's advocate here and say that the farm system is bad, but i t can certainly improve without having to add anyone since there are so many lottery tickets with legit upside that at least one is probably bound to be a hit. I agree that our system is probably not as bad as it seems (that is, a Bottom 2 system) for this reason. Casas, Decker, Howlett, Northcutt, Duran, Flores, Diaz, Jimenez, Dearden, and Esplin (Brannen?) is a good collection of offensive talent with upside, none of which are 50 FV prospects at this point in their career (of course), but several could be there in 1-2 years. The pitching in the lower levels certainly lacks name recognition but guys like Alexander Montero, Chase Shugart, Brayan Bello, and Aldo Ramirez have some upside. I'm pretty excited about the state of the system in the lower levels but I also understand that potential isn't sufficient to rank our farm system higher than it is. I'm fine with that.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 15, 2018 13:45:20 GMT -5
I remember back in 2010/2011 the Sox system was regarded as rather weak but with a lot of talent in the lower minors with good upside. A good draft definitely helped, but a lot of that talent materializing really went a long way to building the system up in a few years. It takes a few things breaking the right way, and there's zero guarantees that happens but if we have similar luck this time around I believe the talent is in the system now to look much better in a couple years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 15, 2018 13:49:12 GMT -5
I remember back in 2010/2011 the Sox system was regarded as rather weak but with a lot of talent in the lower minors with good upside. A good draft definitely helped, but a lot of that talent materializing really went a long way to building the system up in a few years. It takes a few things breaking the right way, and there's zero guarantees that happens but if we have similar luck this time around I believe the talent is in the system now to look much better in a couple years. The 2011 draft not only helped, but it was arguably one of the beat draft years in the history of the Red Sox. The Sox were compensated immensely with a lot of first round picks due to free agents leaving with the QO. The Sox can't get compensation like this anymore. The system can only go up from here because it can't get much worse from here.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 15, 2018 13:54:41 GMT -5
I remember back in 2010/2011 the Sox system was regarded as rather weak but with a lot of talent in the lower minors with good upside. A good draft definitely helped, but a lot of that talent materializing really went a long way to building the system up in a few years. It takes a few things breaking the right way, and there's zero guarantees that happens but if we have similar luck this time around I believe the talent is in the system now to look much better in a couple years. Yeah, I think in terms of the timeline, that's the hope. If you look at the rankings history at the beginning of 2011, you see the reason the team finished in last place three times in four years from 2012 through 2015 (and won a World Series with a lot of temps in the other year). Iglesias and Reddick turned into MLB regulars, but it's not a good list. But if you look at the END of 2011? The system wasn't yet well regarded, but there were a bunch of high upside guys - Bogaerts and Barnes were the two new guys, plus Bradley and Betts were outside the top 20 (Bradley not immediately entering the top 20 seems crazy in hindsight) but obviously on their way to being a major contributor and the second best player in baseball. So let's hope we're in an similar point, where there are no obvious candidates but a couple guys are primed to take big steps forward. Take Casas for example. I couldn't possibly rank him in a Top 100 right now, but I also don't think anyone would be shocked if he put up a monster year and was suddenly a Top 40 guy next year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 15, 2018 14:01:59 GMT -5
I remember back in 2010/2011 the Sox system was regarded as rather weak but with a lot of talent in the lower minors with good upside. A good draft definitely helped, but a lot of that talent materializing really went a long way to building the system up in a few years. It takes a few things breaking the right way, and there's zero guarantees that happens but if we have similar luck this time around I believe the talent is in the system now to look much better in a couple years. The 2011 draft not only helped, but it was arguably one of the beat draft years in the history of the Red Sox. The Sox were compensated immensely with a lot of first round picks due to free agents leaving with the QO. The Sox can't get compensation like this anymore. The system can only go up from here because it can't get much worse from here. I understand that. But they had other talent in the system back then like Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Ranaudo, Garin Cecchini, Christian Vazquez, Jose Iglesias, and Will Middlebrooks who increased their stock to varying degrees during that time frame. Also, I'd like to add that despite more picks, I think the Sox still just had a better hit rate in that draft. You could combined the 2012/2013 drafts and have just as many #1 picks but the value today is drastically less. So, yes the Sox would need to hit on a few of the guys drafted the last couple years. Which we won't know for some time. Guys like Brandon Howlett and Nick Northcut really excite, but more often than not guys who fit that profile materialize to little MLB value. I'd agree the system is very weak, but I think there's at least a potential path for it to recover over the next few years where a few years ago the system looked barren.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2018 14:36:29 GMT -5
I hope DD, coming off a world championship, can discipline himself a bit, as we really need to let the farm system recover from previous deals (Kimbrel, Sale, etc.). Step one is pocketing the pick from Kimbrel’s departure. They'll pocket the pick from Kimbrel's departure and it should help but it's a pick after the 4th round, not after the 1st round so unless the Red Sox really hit, it's more likely to be a lesser talent, but who knows? Mookie was picked in the 5th round - when they gave him a lot more money than expected in that round, so who really knows?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 15, 2018 14:52:10 GMT -5
I hope DD, coming off a world championship, can discipline himself a bit, as we really need to let the farm system recover from previous deals (Kimbrel, Sale, etc.). Step one is pocketing the pick from Kimbrel’s departure. They'll pocket the pick from Kimbrel's departure and it should help but it's a pick after the 4th round, not after the 1st round so unless the Red Sox really hit, it's more likely to be a lesser talent, but who knows? Mookie was picked in the 5th round - when they gave him a lot more money than expected in that round, so who really knows? I think the extra 300K or so that comes with the pick (not sure exactly what it will be) is probably more valuable than the actual pick itself
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Post by unitspin on Nov 15, 2018 20:05:50 GMT -5
Id give it a year or two with some of the talent they have will push them to close to middle of the league. Just crazy how much homegrown talent the big club has and ppl jump all over the system for being depleted that what happens when your team is built of mostly homegrown guys.
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Post by sportnik on Nov 16, 2018 10:58:46 GMT -5
We've been spoiled over the past 15 years, with a smart management team that was able to take advantage of the CBA to gather draft picks and sign international talent. In my opinion, the new CBA gives unfair advantages to bad baseball teams & will make it virtually impossible for the Sox to collect young talent like they did in years past without tanking. The rules have now been set-up to reward teams for tanking and is not good for the game.
The Competitive Balance Round of the MLB draft is a real pet peeve, as it rewards teams for not spending money. Comp picks for large market teams now fall after the Competitive Balance Round. Look at that great 2011 draft. The Sox had 4 picks in the top 40. Three of those picks were on the post-season roster. Under the new CBA the Sox will never have more than 1 pick in the top 40 again, unless they tank, or trade for a CBR pick.
I have no issue with imposing limits on International players, but the current limits are laughably low for a billion dollar business. The international signing pool is also skewed to reward teams for tanking.
Some savvy large market team is going to realize their best bet is to say F it & blow away all the spending limits, spending big money on players that are "unsignable" under the MLB budget rules & forfeiting future draft picks. It makes no sense to refrain from signing the top 3 high school prospects every year to gain a draft pick that allows to draft the 30th best player each year. I hope the Sox figure this out, before everyone else does.
MLB's obsession with helping small market teams is killing their product. Ultimately it will hurt all teams, big & small.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 16, 2018 11:12:03 GMT -5
Isn't that also true for every single team though? Or are you saying we have more lottery tickets? In order for the farm system to improve, I think they need to improve more than other teams' farm systems. I imagine it is true for every team, but like ramireja named a lot of guys that could become legit prospects. I like the group and I don't dislike how heavy the system is on the lower levels, it fits an abstract timeline of replacing players way down the line or having those guys climb to AA and being used on trades a bit earlier than that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 16, 2018 13:31:39 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward.
My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 16, 2018 14:09:49 GMT -5
Isn't that also true for every single team though? Or are you saying we have more lottery tickets? In order for the farm system to improve, I think they need to improve more than other teams' farm systems. I imagine it is true for every team, but like ramireja named a lot of guys that could become legit prospects. I like the group and I don't dislike how heavy the system is on the lower levels, it fits an abstract timeline of replacing players way down the line or having those guys climb to AA and being used on trades a bit earlier than that. Yea every team has prospects with upside, but DD changed strategy and has added a ton of guys with high upside. Going from a more College approach in 2016 and 2015 to a more high school approach the last two drafts. He's also been spreading the wealth out among picks and not limiting the team by going big on only a few guys like the Groome draft. I would also guess we are one of the highest spending teams after the 10th round. A few million can go a long way and if you keep bringing in a ton of $125,000 or up guys you are going to hit on some of them. Especially if you target a good mix of College and High School picks. I agree 100% the lower minor are stacked and I don't think many teams have added the volume we have over the last two years. It won't show up in the rankings right now, but the talent is there. A massive amount of it.
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Post by huskies15 on Nov 16, 2018 16:03:06 GMT -5
Yup the talent is there, just need a couple to really pop next year to change perception. Flores, Casas, Decker, hell even Groome could really jump out next year provided good health. The talent is there, but they need to show it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 16, 2018 16:06:33 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward.
My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
I miss them all, but in those three years the Sox won 3 Division Titles and a World Series. And still have Sale, a QO for Kimbrel, and a healthy Pom for 2019 or trade. The evidence is in that DDo won those trades.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 16, 2018 16:22:12 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward.
My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
A lot of people knocked me on that Kimbrel trade, when I thought it a good trade, but man I was pretty spot on with the prospects we gave up, at least so far. Would have loved to keep Allen, but it is what it is.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2018 17:07:37 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward.
My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
What's the most amazing about these trades is that we kept ERod, Devers and Benintendi while giving up players who have yet to do anything much. I'm really glad that I don't have to suffer through Moncada's strike out struggles.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 16, 2018 17:22:08 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward. My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
I did see Kopech in AAA this year and he was lights out. If he is one of those guys who gains velocity after TJ, God help the rest of the league in 2 years.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 16, 2018 17:26:51 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward. My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
What's the most amazing about these trades is that we kept ERod, Devers and Benintendi while giving up players who have yet to do anything much. I'm really glad that I don't have to suffer through Moncada's strike out struggles.Something to consider for everyone projecting Dalbec as an MLB player. His K rate was 37% this year and has gone up every year. Even in his prime, Adam Dunn hovered around 26%, which leads one to wonder if Dalbec can even make it in MLB, and if the time to deal him may be now while the hype is high.
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