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Nathan Eovaldi (re-signed: 4 years/$68 million)
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 8, 2018 21:50:18 GMT -5
With all the talk of Eovaldi's high ERA, I thought I'd adjust it for inherited runner support and response to errors. It turns out that Eovaldi with the Sox was terrible at pitching out of error-created jams -- for instance, three times the leadoff runner reached on an error, and they scored all three times (where 60% of the time is normal). That more than offsets his bad inherited runner support with the Rays (all from 1 game) to give him a 4.03 True ERA.
However, his True ERA over the season breaks down very distinctly and dramatically.
4.20 in 51 IP with the Rays to start the season. [*] It's blown up to an official 4.91 by the one game where he left the bases full with 1 out and all three guys scored.
0.42 in 21 IP, his last start with the Rays and first two with the Sox. 8.47 in 26 IP, in 6 GS and a relief outing, from August 10 to September 11. The official ERA of 6.58 understates how bad he was. His RA of 9.00 is much closer to fair. 1.38 in 35.1 IP, his last 3 games of the regular season, plus the post, with all but 5 IP (against the O's) against tremendous lineups.
It's hard to see the 26 IP of his bad month as just random variation when it was surrounded by 56 insanely dominant innings. It looks to me that the first 9 starts are expected post-layoff rust / inconsistency, and the bad month is a dead-arm period, which we do know happens.
Most of the errors behind him happened that month, BTW, so there's no reason to believe he has trouble in those situations.
[*] It's 4.05 if he isn't allowed to face Jose Altuve, who had homered off him his previous time up, after Springer and Bregman had gone back-to-back to lead off the 6th. And it's the third time around the order ... what manager does that?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 8, 2018 22:19:45 GMT -5
I 100% agree with that, because what happens in 2019 will have a big bearing on 2020. I just hate the we have to reset 100% talk. If we crazy underperform next year that could easily happen, if were great again they could blow past it. Eovaldi and that contract does make it a lot harder to get under though. I’m not saying they *have* to reset, I’m saying that I think they’ll try very hard to because of the penalties that come with NOT resetting. I don’t at all disagree with your point about ownership, though...if they’re going for a three-peat in 2020, I could see the whole org saying “eh, what the hell, why not?” It might not be prudent long-term, but a three-peat is remarkably rare.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 8, 2018 22:33:29 GMT -5
If the Sox wish to look past 2019, Porcello would look good in a variety of uniforms, Padres, for example. Just sayin', not necessarily advocating because I'm not so sure about the clubhouse effect. My feelings exactly. It’s worth exploring. They could maximize prospect return by paying down his salary significantly since 2019 isn’t really an issue. The Pads have a ton of talent in the pipeline; Atlanta could be a possibility; the Reds have a good system and are looking for starters; Mil could really use a starter and they have Tristen Lutz and Corey Ray, either of who could be a JBJ replacement. A 50 FV prospect is in the 20-25M range, and Porcello is projected for about $25M in value, so if they covered $15M there’s your 1-for-1, especially on an NL team looking to contend where Porcello would likely perform a little better and be a low-risk, short-terminvestment who would return a pick on QO.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2018 22:36:26 GMT -5
Why in the world would the San Diego Padres be trading prospects for one year of Rick Porcello?
Between this and the Scherzer-for-Porcello suggestion in another thread, my God. Can people please consider the motivations of other teams before proposing ideas?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2018 0:28:26 GMT -5
Why do the Padres do anything? Why did they sign Hosmer? Give Richards 18 million? It might be unlikely, but they will go for it at some point. It's certainly not crazy, they didn't just start a rebuild they are going into the 4th year of it.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2018 1:35:25 GMT -5
I assume it was meant to be a rhetorical question, but the answer to why they signed Hosmer was "because they expect(ed) him to still be good when their rebuild was bearing fruit, and they thought the value was decent in a down market year." I think they were were wrong and that it was a bad signing, but it wasn't as nonsensical as a rebuilding team trading prospects for a durable second-tier starter on a 1-year/$20M contract.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 9, 2018 2:30:51 GMT -5
Come on now. Hosmer and Richards signed for multiple years. That bears zero relevance to the question James asked. It's the off-season and we all go on hypothetical benders, but there are some proposals that have no realistic chance of ever being discussed let alone consummated.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2018 4:03:53 GMT -5
Why in the world would the San Diego Padres be trading prospects for one year of Rick Porcello? Between this and the Scherzer-for-Porcello suggestion in another thread, my God. Can people please consider the motivations of other teams before proposing ideas? I used the Padres as my for example because they've been linked to Bumgarner. I'm guessing they are looking to improve fanbase by taking a shot at the wildcard. By trading off season, they will also net a draft pick which would somewhat mitigate the cost since we're talking prospects. The Diamondbacks are obviously taking a step back and the Rockies have yet to do anything. There are several clubs on the cusp that could be trade candidates. If the Padres DFA Asuaje, they are pretty deep. Their minors are near the top.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2018 8:14:43 GMT -5
Are the costs high for everyone else though? You mean trade or otherwise? Have we seen a trade or free agent signing where the cost wasn't high so far? Yea I would say there hasn’t been one deal where I was shocked by how expensive a player was. Values are suppressed. Corbin’s 6th year was a bit much but his 23.3m is only a little above Porcello who signed 3 years ago and isn’t as good. I’d argue player acquisition hasn’t ever really been cheaper for top teams. So many more teams are tearing down and not even trying to compete during the offseason that there are more sellers than buyers. This let’s the bigger markets sit back and pick up players on discounts compared to years past. A lot of people think Eovaldi is overpaid and count me amongst those that thought people were being foolish after his first 2 starts with their contract talks (still do as those were irrational over-reactions to 2 starts). However, he’s still young and as long as they aren’t too worried about injury again then giving him 17m when his floor is a mid rotation start who can be a post season rubber armed bullpen ace and solid starter is well worth it especially when his ceiling is that of a top of the rotation starter. Not Sale like but still a great pitcher. Guys like Cobb got 4/60 last year in a down market. Eovaldi is much better because if worst case happens he can move to the pen.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 9, 2018 9:44:20 GMT -5
The idea that Porcello isn't as good as Corbin is arguable. Take out the batting value, and Corbin has never had a season as good as the former's age 27 season - by BR. And while he's just one year younger, Corbin has accumulated only 2/3 of the value Porcello has, again by BRef. Thanks to the down season 2 years ago, he hasn't been quite worth his contract so far, but it's very close and another decent season like 2018 could erase that and put him in the black for his time with the Sox. He's pretty much done what they signed him to do.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 9, 2018 10:48:43 GMT -5
The idea that Porcello isn't as good as Corbin is arguable. Take out the batting value, and Corbin has never had a season as good as the former's age 27 season - by BR. And while he's just one year younger, Corbin has accumulated only 2/3 of the value Porcello has, again by BRef. Thanks to the down season 2 years ago, he hasn't been quite worth his contract so far, but it's very close and another decent season like 2018 could erase that and put him in the black for his time with the Sox. He's pretty much done what they signed him to do. Porcello's a funny case in that he'll pitch some days like a #1 and others like a #4, but overall he's a solid 2-3. He was also a 2.7 fWAR pitcher last year which puts him in the top 50 if all MLB starters, and at #16 in the BigBoy League. If you look at the last 3 years (length of the deal) he's a top 10 starter in the AL for qualified innings. And as we've said he's muy durable. Fangraphs says he has earned his money: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=PSteamer has him projected as 2.7 this year. If they think they can replace or come near to replacing that 2.7 fWAR with some combination of Johnson/Velazquez/Wright (if he's able) and/or a pick-up for half the cash or less, then it might be worth moving him if there's a prospect or two out there that the Sox are eying and they can get in exchange. Tis the season for at least exploring such options.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2018 11:29:47 GMT -5
I wasn’t suggesting he wasn’t worth the money; I was using him to show that Corbins contract wasn’t super expensive.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2018 11:59:29 GMT -5
Come on now. Hosmer and Richards signed for multiple years. That bears zero relevance to the question James asked. It's the off-season and we all go on hypothetical benders, but there are some proposals that have no realistic chance of ever being discussed let alone consummated. Richards is basically a one year deal because he just had TJ surgery. It shows they are planning to compete, same with Hosmer. Nevermind reports linking them to almost every pitcher on the market including one year rentals like Bumgarner and Gray. Maybe you think it makes no sense, but they sure do seem like they are at least thinking about making a run this year. It's not crazy either their first wave of prospects have been in the majors for years and next year will see thd next wave including the top prospect in the game. Maybe its one year early, but the Phillies did the same thing last year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2018 12:13:56 GMT -5
Our moderators seem a bit snarky today.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2018 12:22:05 GMT -5
Have we seen a trade or free agent signing where the cost wasn't high so far? Yea I would say there hasn’t been one deal where I was shocked by how expensive a player was. Values are suppressed. Corbin’s 6th year was a bit much but his 23.3m is only a little above Porcello who signed 3 years ago and isn’t as good. I’d argue player acquisition hasn’t ever really been cheaper for top teams. So many more teams are tearing down and not even trying to compete during the offseason that there are more sellers than buyers. This let’s the bigger markets sit back and pick up players on discounts compared to years past. A lot of people think Eovaldi is overpaid and count me amongst those that thought people were being foolish after his first 2 starts with their contract talks (still do as those were irrational over-reactions to 2 starts). However, he’s still young and as long as they aren’t too worried about injury again then giving him 17m when his floor is a mid rotation start who can be a post season rubber armed bullpen ace and solid starter is well worth it especially when his ceiling is that of a top of the rotation starter. Not Sale like but still a great pitcher. Guys like Cobb got 4/60 last year in a down market. Eovaldi is much better because if worst case happens he can move to the pen. Porcello's deal was prime years age 27-30 4 years 82.5 million, Corbin is age 29-34 6 years 140 million and you think those are close? He's two years older and got almost 60 million more. That's your idea of cheap and suppressed values? Eovaldi doesn't have 10 career bwar and got 70 million. Has a pitcher with less war every got more? Maybe you are not surprised, but those are historically high contracts, the exact opposite of last years suppressed market. Bam they are now gone very quickly and a ton of teams still want pitching. Paxton cost one of the highest rated pitching prospects in Baseball, a year after Cole cost much less. Goldy just got traded for a rather large haul. Segura on a market rate contract cost a former top prospect. Heck Colome cost 4 years of a catcher coming off almost a 2 bwar season. I've seen nothing to show a suppressed market like your talking about and players costing little in money or prospects. It seems like the exact opposite. Heck Richards almost doubled the going rate of 2 year deals for guys recovering from TJ surgery.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2018 12:22:06 GMT -5
Our moderators seem a bit snarky today. You’re wired to fight authority, eh?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2018 12:28:54 GMT -5
Our moderators seem a bit snarky today. You’re wired to fight authority, eh? Just didn't appreciate personalizing the attack.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2018 12:58:58 GMT -5
Porcello has about a 0.0% chance of being talked about in a trade, let alone getting traded anywhere. You guys are nuts. If they traded him, they’d be looking to trade for a pitcher just like him at the deadline. Let’s just skip that step by not being dumb.
In fact I’ll make an avatar bet with anyone that you won’t even see a trade rumor about him on mlbtraderumors.com
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2018 13:15:15 GMT -5
Porcello has about a 0.0% chance of being talked about in a trade, let alone getting traded anywhere. You guys are nuts. If they traded him, they’d be looking to trade for a pitcher just like him at the deadline. Let’s just skip that step by not being dumb. In fact I’ll make an avatar bet with anyone that you won’t even see a trade rumor about him on mlbtraderumors.com I'm inclined to agree that they won't, as I said in my initial post: "not necessarily advocating because I'm not so sure about the clubhouse effect." On the other hand, I don't believe that the difference between Porcello and Johnson is worth $21m.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2018 13:49:34 GMT -5
Hypothetically:
Porcello is HR prone, he should be of interest to any team with a flyball park. If the Sox keep him, they are likely to top the higher tax bracket again which means his exit will mean a 4th round pick.
If the Sox were to trade for a decent cost controlled reliever and a decent middle of the field prospect, they'd be feeding a lot of birds with scones. That would leave them room to sign another decent reliever and stay under the top tax tier. That would also leave them with one or two extra tradeable relievers, like Workman and Hembree. Shawaryn should be an adequate 8th starter.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2018 13:54:12 GMT -5
Speaking for myself I think the chances he gets traded is low, it's more like lets see what's available. We should look at trading him and see if it makes sense. Maybe the Rockies want to make a run before thier best player hits free agency, Porcello and Dalbec for Gray. Is that really crazy?
I just don't believe you need a rotation filled with 2/3. I'd be 100% comfortable with a guy like Pomeranz or Harvey as my 5th starter, with Wright, Johnson, Velazquez as depth if you could get a lot for Porcello. I'm not trading him to just trade him, yet not even looking at the option seems rather crazy when the chances he resigns seem like 1%. Oh no please don't downgrade the Red Sox rotation with a guy like Pomeranz that pitched 170 plus innings in 2016 and 2017 and was worth 3.8 and 3.9 bwar.
Nevermind who says 2015 or 2017 Porcello doesn't show up next year. Eovaldi gives us options we should at the minimum explore them. Yea we likely won't because DD seems to be enjoying building super teams, that doesn't mean it's not the smart thing to do.
Fun stat Porcello has only once in his career been worth 2 or more bwar in back to back seasons and that was with Detriot in 2013 and 2014.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 9, 2018 14:01:08 GMT -5
It is a great point that trading Porcello and signing Pomeranz would help the Sox payroll tremendously.
You could sign 2 relievers and stay under the 246 million if you did that if you managed the contracts correctly.
I'm all for that idea actually.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2018 14:04:59 GMT -5
Porcello has about a 0.0% chance of being talked about in a trade, let alone getting traded anywhere. You guys are nuts. If they traded him, they’d be looking to trade for a pitcher just like him at the deadline. Let’s just skip that step by not being dumb. In fact I’ll make an avatar bet with anyone that you won’t even see a trade rumor about him on mlbtraderumors.com I'm inclined to agree that they won't, as I said in my initial post: "not necessarily advocating because I'm not so sure about the clubhouse effect." On the other hand, I don't believe that the difference between Porcello and Johnson is worth $21m. Well they’re trying to win another championship, not win an award for most effective use of payroll. The difference between Porcello and Johnson could easily be the difference between winning the division and the wild card.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 9, 2018 14:06:52 GMT -5
It is a great point that trading Porcello and signing Pomeranz would help the Sox payroll tremendously. You could sign 2 relievers and stay under the 246 million if you did that if you managed the contracts correctly. I'm all for that idea actually. I’m not sure why you keep bringing up this Pomeranz idea. Not only is the guy terrible but it doesn’t make sense for him to come back and rebuild value with the Red Sox. He’ll probably go to one of those middling teams like the Twins.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 9, 2018 14:16:49 GMT -5
It is a great point that trading Porcello and signing Pomeranz would help the Sox payroll tremendously. You could sign 2 relievers and stay under the 246 million if you did that if you managed the contracts correctly. I'm all for that idea actually. I’m not sure why you keep bringing up this Pomeranz idea. Not only is the guy terrible but it doesn’t make sense for him to come back and rebuild value with the Red Sox. He’ll probably go to one of those middling teams like the Twins. I don't know, Pomeranz is what 30 or 31 next year? I could easily see him bouncing back despite him getting crushed all year last year. I love the idea of selling high on Porcello versus getting a low end 4th round pick for him too. It's a 50/50 chance Pomeranz is better than Porcello next year because Porcello stinks every other year it seems.
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