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Nathan Eovaldi (re-signed: 4 years/$68 million)
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 24, 2021 14:34:02 GMT -5
NOT being Debby downer. Legit it is till he’s injured again. His stuff is so good when healthy. You can’t do this but the “smart” play might be to trade him while he’s playing so good and you could get a great return on him. It won’t happen but unless he reverses his history it would be the smart play. Depends on the circumstances. The smart play is to trade him - if your team has tanked, but if you actually have a chance to make the playoffs there's no way you trade him. If you have any desire to legitimately compete this year then it's not a "smart" play to trade him. I mean, if the team is right there and at this point the Sox aren't exactly that far off from competing, they are in first place as I type this, right? - then that doesn't make sense. If they collapsed and fell apart, sure trade Eovaldi, deal JDM, anybody who is not part of the next Red Sox core....but strangely enough you have to deal with the reality in front of your face and that reality is that the Red Sox have a reasonable chance of competing this season. They have a few holes to fix, but it doesn't look like anything that's unfixable that you have to mortgage the future for. I mean, what kind of message does that send to your fanbase or even the players if you're punting the season while you are still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot? Think that would want to make a player like X stay? It's one thing to do this kind of thing when you're team is down and out, but unexpectedly that is not the case here. While I think the Sox will probably fall toward .500, that is irrelevant - the reality is that they have a legit reason now to think that they're in the playoff hunt. Long term if he continues his career projectors the smart play is to deal him. But I understand the smart play isn’t possible either. I didn’t say it’s a play that should be done or will be ( it won’t or bloom puts his career on the line ( in Boston). with Sox playing so well right now; but the smartest move could be to move him while his value could be high, contract is high, and team could net a nice piece back. Again, NO WAY it happens but that doesn’t make it the smart play. ( because I don’t think euvaldi is back with Sox on next contract for this amount). 2/3rds of time he’s out or coming back off injury. The other third he’s a top of rotation piece (2-3 and some nights ace). I agree with your post which is why I said it won’t happen. But if looked at in 2 years—- the smart deal could easily be to have dealt him now. ( I’m basically saying he’s due for a regression and his regression is usually “ir” .
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 24, 2021 15:13:53 GMT -5
I would be surprised if the Sox were to deal Eovaldi this year. There is a good chance we are in the 2021 hunt past the trade date. And, unless Eovaldi loses his way between now and the end of the season, you would not deal him going into 2022 given that the Sox should be competitive due to young help coming up and free agent spending flexibility.
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Post by manfred on Apr 24, 2021 15:22:15 GMT -5
This is parallel universe stuff. Eovaldi healthy isn’t getting traded because he is one of their best starters. Eovaldi hurt isn’t getting traded for obvious reasons. No way, no how.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Apr 24, 2021 18:07:09 GMT -5
I would be surprised if the Sox were to deal Eovaldi this year. There is a good chance we are in the 2021 hunt past the trade date. And, unless Eovaldi loses his way between now and the end of the season, you would not deal him going into 2022 given that the Sox should be competitive due to young help coming up and free agent spending flexibility. I would argue that not having Eovaldi on the roster would go a long way to the Sox being competitive in 2022. Seven years ago he posted a career best 3.3 bWAR. The next year he nearly matched it at 3.2. In the time since he has been worth just short of four. That's 2016 to now. This past off-season a win cost an average of $8m while Nate will make $17m next summer. If we are lucky enough to get two wins out of him (something he's done three times since his debut in 2012) the team breaks even.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2021 19:05:59 GMT -5
I think Eovaldi's contract has positive surplus value at this point. He's pitching at a really high level now - in the second tier behind the serious Cy Young contenders. It doesn't take many innings at this level to get to the two WAR they're paying for. He's already more than half-way there this season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2021 8:03:03 GMT -5
I would be surprised if the Sox were to deal Eovaldi this year. There is a good chance we are in the 2021 hunt past the trade date. And, unless Eovaldi loses his way between now and the end of the season, you would not deal him going into 2022 given that the Sox should be competitive due to young help coming up and free agent spending flexibility. I would argue that not having Eovaldi on the roster would go a long way to the Sox being competitive in 2022. Seven years ago he posted a career best 3.3 bWAR. The next year he nearly matched it at 3.2. In the time since he has been worth just short of four. That's 2016 to now. This past off-season a win cost an average of $8m while Nate will make $17m next summer. If we are lucky enough to get two wins out of him (something he's done three times since his debut in 2012) the team breaks even. That's so misleading though. He has a bad 2016. He didn't pitch in 2017. He was perfectly fine at 2.2 fWAR in 2018. Yes, very bad in 2019. Last year he was on a 2.4 fWAR pace over 162. It's not like he had five bad years. He had 2 bad years, 2 good years (one of which has a disproportionately small effect on his cumulative fWAR because it was short), and missed a season due to injury. Is he a 3-4 WAR pitcher? Probably not. Fair to hope for 2-3? I think so.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Apr 25, 2021 8:56:56 GMT -5
I would argue that not having Eovaldi on the roster would go a long way to the Sox being competitive in 2022. Seven years ago he posted a career best 3.3 bWAR. The next year he nearly matched it at 3.2. In the time since he has been worth just short of four. That's 2016 to now. This past off-season a win cost an average of $8m while Nate will make $17m next summer. If we are lucky enough to get two wins out of him (something he's done three times since his debut in 2012) the team breaks even. That's so misleading though. He has a bad 2016. He didn't pitch in 2017. He was perfectly fine at 2.2 fWAR in 2018. Yes, very bad in 2019. Last year he was on a 2.4 fWAR pace over 162. It's not like he had five bad years. He had 2 bad years, 2 good years (one of which has a disproportionately small effect on his cumulative fWAR because it was short), and missed a season due to injury. Is he a 3-4 WAR pitcher? Probably not. Fair to hope for 2-3? I think so. In the grand scheme of building the team for 2022 why shouldn't his inability to stay on the field be taken into consideration? He's a very up and down, on and off player and I think they if they can get something of value for him that $17m can be better spent on other players.
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Post by manfred on Apr 25, 2021 9:05:42 GMT -5
To even consider moving a healthy Eovaldi, you would need Houck, Pivetta, and Seabold to be pretty certain. Yes, they have options on Perez and Richards, but really that means ERod, Sale and questions. The savings you get from the trade would go right back into a FA starter, which doesn’t seem worth it. Replacing one of your better starters with another starter is standing still.
To argue for huge savings, I assume you want prospects. But then you are stepping back — If this was meant to be a bridge, next year is supposed to be more go time. Why create a problem?
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 25, 2021 10:16:01 GMT -5
I would argue that not having Eovaldi on the roster would go a long way to the Sox being competitive in 2022. Seven years ago he posted a career best 3.3 bWAR. The next year he nearly matched it at 3.2. In the time since he has been worth just short of four. That's 2016 to now. This past off-season a win cost an average of $8m while Nate will make $17m next summer. If we are lucky enough to get two wins out of him (something he's done three times since his debut in 2012) the team breaks even. That's so misleading though. He has a bad 2016. He didn't pitch in 2017. He was perfectly fine at 2.2 fWAR in 2018. Yes, very bad in 2019. Last year he was on a 2.4 fWAR pace over 162. It's not like he had five bad years. He had 2 bad years, 2 good years (one of which has a disproportionately small effect on his cumulative fWAR because it was short), and missed a season due to injury. Is he a 3-4 WAR pitcher? Probably not. Fair to hope for 2-3? I think so. Exactly my point which is moot point. I’m not saying trade him. But I am saying once he gets hurt again ( unless he breaks his normal pattern) many will be bumbed we are paying someone $18 million to be on sideline and not contribute ( rather than reap rewards of trade back). He is also the perfect example of what bloom is trying to avoid over the next 4-5 years plus moving forward. Depth so we can pay a player lower salary rather than $18 million for only 1/2 contract contribution. Then we are able to use that $18 million more wisely going after a star player where a hole is present.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 25, 2021 10:21:23 GMT -5
To even consider moving a healthy Eovaldi, you would need Houck, Pivetta, and Seabold to be pretty certain. Yes, they have options on Perez and Richards, but really that means ERod, Sale and questions. The savings you get from the trade would go right back into a FA starter, which doesn’t seem worth it. Replacing one of your better starters with another starter is standing still. To argue for huge savings, I assume you want prospects. But then you are stepping back — If this was meant to be a bridge, next year is supposed to be more go time. Why create a problem? Again I’m not saying do it. But I am saying Red Sox aren’t going to win World Series. I wonder if they could make playoffs without euvaldi ( especially if he gets hurt later this year). If he is going to get hurt ( which he usually does) then the smart play would be to trade him, but you can’t because they are in it and he is playing great. However if past is indication of future, it’s a matter of time before he breaks down, has a longer rehab, takes time to come back to form, and we are sitting right where you say we would be WHILE still paying him AND no prospect return on a rebuilding team. Ie the smart play is to trade him now. Won’t happen!! Only way it’s not smart is if he doesn’t get hurt again—- which is to argue against his career norm
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Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -5
This just seems like another version of the "player X sucks so we should trade them to another team for a bundle of prospects" argument. If Eovaldi is so obviously going to get hurt, don't you think other teams would be aware of it? What do you expect to get back for a $17 million pitcher who is destined to go on the IL?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2021 22:52:51 GMT -5
I would be surprised if the Sox were to deal Eovaldi this year. There is a good chance we are in the 2021 hunt past the trade date. And, unless Eovaldi loses his way between now and the end of the season, you would not deal him going into 2022 given that the Sox should be competitive due to young help coming up and free agent spending flexibility. I would argue that not having Eovaldi on the roster would go a long way to the Sox being competitive in 2022. Seven years ago he posted a career best 3.3 bWAR. The next year he nearly matched it at 3.2. In the time since he has been worth just short of four. That's 2016 to now. This past off-season a win cost an average of $8m while Nate will make $17m next summer. If we are lucky enough to get two wins out of him (something he's done three times since his debut in 2012) the team breaks even. Who will replace him? Someone like Garrett Richards? ??
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 25, 2021 23:34:37 GMT -5
I am fine with Nathan. I think he is a pretty solid number 3. He will pitch like an Ace 1/3 of the time , and 3 about 1/3 of the time and a 5 like 1/3 of the time. Today was like a 4.2. I still like the contract as a bridge for the younger guys coming. Plus he is a good guy and WANTS to be here
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 26, 2021 6:53:44 GMT -5
To even consider moving a healthy Eovaldi, you would need Houck, Pivetta, and Seabold to be pretty certain. Yes, they have options on Perez and Richards, but really that means ERod, Sale and questions. The savings you get from the trade would go right back into a FA starter, which doesn’t seem worth it. Replacing one of your better starters with another starter is standing still. To argue for huge savings, I assume you want prospects. But then you are stepping back — If this was meant to be a bridge, next year is supposed to be more go time. Why create a problem? Again I’m not saying do it. But I am saying Red Sox aren’t going to win World Series. I wonder if they could make playoffs without euvaldi ( especially if he gets hurt later this year). If he is going to get hurt ( which he usually does) then the smart play would be to trade him, but you can’t because they are in it and he is playing great. However if past is indication of future, it’s a matter of time before he breaks down, has a longer rehab, takes time to come back to form, and we are sitting right where you say we would be WHILE still paying him AND no prospect return on a rebuilding team. Ie the smart play is to trade him now. Won’t happen!! Only way it’s not smart is if he doesn’t get hurt again—- which is to argue against his career norm I don't wonder. If he gets hurt for a lengthy amount of time, no they won't make the playoffs without him. If they trade him, they won't make the playoffs. If they trade him and they miss the playoffs by two or three games, then it's not necessarily "the smart play". Just let the season go a few months and see where you are. If the Sox are hopelessly out of the playoffs then yeah, trade Eovaldi. But otherwise it would be foolish to trade Eovaldi. Also keep in mind, if the Sox do make the playoffs, you have to ask yourself, "Who would you trust to make a start for you?" I trust E-Rod. I would trust Sale if he's completely healthy, which is a big if. And I would certainly trust Eovaldi. That's about it for complete trust. I'd consider Pivetta, perhaps Houck, Whitlock if he could be used in that capacity, but that's about it. Eovaldi I would have complete trust in. Really, it's the same situation as JD Martinez. If the Sox are hopelessly out, if you can get value in a trade for JDM, you explore it. If you're in the race, you keep him.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on Apr 26, 2021 9:41:09 GMT -5
This just seems like another version of the "player X sucks so we should trade them to another team for a bundle of prospects" argument. If Eovaldi is so obviously going to get hurt, don't you think other teams would be aware of it? What do you expect to get back for a $17 million pitcher who is destined to go on the IL? A version of this post should be automatically appended to every post that mentions the word "trade."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 11:35:12 GMT -5
^This.
That said, Workman and Hembree for Pivetta and Seabold is a real trade that happened, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 28, 2021 2:18:07 GMT -5
This just seems like another version of the "player X sucks so we should trade them to another team for a bundle of prospects" argument. If Eovaldi is so obviously going to get hurt, don't you think other teams would be aware of it? What do you expect to get back for a $17 million pitcher who is destined to go on the IL? A version of this post should be automatically appended to every post that mentions the word "trade." If you don’t think there is ownership of other teams that see a potential to win now and will deal away a nice prospect for a player playing at an all star level you haven’t been watching baseball long or seen many trade deadlines. Management might know things but ownership sure doesn’t. Again, I’m not saying any of this will happen. It won’t. But that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the smart move. And I absolutely believe he would fetch a top 5 prospect if he was traded right now plus another in top 15. But we are the Red Sox thankfully so it won’t happen and we will play to win now knowing it might be a sunk cost later. ( we don’t have to play with one eye on payroll at all times like many other teams do.... accept for last year). Let’s enjoy euvaldis run and hope he stays healthy
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2021 9:19:11 GMT -5
A version of this post should be automatically appended to every post that mentions the word "trade." If you don’t think there is ownership of other teams that see a potential to win now and will deal away a nice prospect for a player playing at an all star level you haven’t been watching baseball long or seen many trade deadlines. Management might know things but ownership sure doesn’t. Again, I’m not saying any of this will happen. It won’t. But that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the smart move. And I absolutely believe he would fetch a top 5 prospect if he was traded right now plus another in top 15. But we are the Red Sox thankfully so it won’t happen and we will play to win now knowing it might be a sunk cost later. ( we don’t have to play with one eye on payroll at all times like many other teams do.... accept for last year). Let’s enjoy euvaldis run and hope he stays healthy I guess I really don't understand the point you're trying to make. We agree that barring a collapse by the Red Sox Eovaldi isn't getting traded. We see enough evidence of the Red Sox play to think that at worse they'll be around .500, at the very best can play near .550 - .600 ball which puts them in contention for the division title and in the middle would be somewhere between .520 - .540 or thereabouts which puts them smack dab in the wild card race. So what team in that situation dumps one of their top starters? What team makes that "smart play"? The answer is practically no team does this. The only team I can think of, of all teams that were in competition that decided to downgrade their own team was the White Sox in 1997 or thereabouts (the white flag deal). I mean, if it's the "smart play" to trade Eovaldi this year even if the Sox are in real contention, then the "genius play" would be to trade JD Martinez instead of risking him walking away via free agency after the season, particularly inf the NL adopts the DH next season? I'm all for building for the future, but at some point you need to value the present. The Sox would be foolish to "go all in" on this season and I have no worry that Bloom will do so, but to downgrade this team while it's in serious contention? No. There is a lot of value in what they're doing this season. I hope they don't wind up in the no-man's land of .500, but when they play games like last night, it's justifiable to think that you're seeing a team that IS capable of seriously competing for a Wild Card, if not the division (and that can't be ruled out at this point either - they're playing like they think they can win, so who's to say they can't?) And Eovaldi is playing a big part in all of this. Will he stay healthy? Who knows? Maybe he gets hurt midseason. Maybe he comes back in September very rested and dominant in October like he was in 2018. Why wouldn't you want that talent on this particular team?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 28, 2021 10:14:13 GMT -5
If you don’t think there is ownership of other teams that see a potential to win now and will deal away a nice prospect for a player playing at an all star level you haven’t been watching baseball long or seen many trade deadlines. Management might know things but ownership sure doesn’t. Again, I’m not saying any of this will happen. It won’t. But that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the smart move. And I absolutely believe he would fetch a top 5 prospect if he was traded right now plus another in top 15. But we are the Red Sox thankfully so it won’t happen and we will play to win now knowing it might be a sunk cost later. ( we don’t have to play with one eye on payroll at all times like many other teams do.... accept for last year). Let’s enjoy euvaldis run and hope he stays healthy I guess I really don't understand the point you're trying to make. We agree that barring a collapse by the Red Sox Eovaldi isn't getting traded. We see enough evidence of the Red Sox play to think that at worse they'll be around .500, at the very best can play near .550 - .600 ball which puts them in contention for the division title and in the middle would be somewhere between .520 - .540 or thereabouts which puts them smack dab in the wild card race. So what team in that situation dumps one of their top starters? What team makes that "smart play"? The answer is practically no team does this. The only team I can think of, of all teams that were in competition that decided to downgrade their own team was the White Sox in 1997 or thereabouts (the white flag deal). I mean, if it's the "smart play" to trade Eovaldi this year even if the Sox are in real contention, then the "genius play" would be to trade JD Martinez instead of risking him walking away via free agency after the season, particularly inf the NL adopts the DH next season? I'm all for building for the future, but at some point you need to value the present. The Sox would be foolish to "go all in" on this season and I have no worry that Bloom will do so, but to downgrade this team while it's in serious contention? No. There is a lot of value in what they're doing this season. I hope they don't wind up in the no-man's land of .500, but when they play games like last night, it's justifiable to think that you're seeing a team that IS capable of seriously competing for a Wild Card, if not the division (and that can't be ruled out at this point either - they're playing like they think they can win, so who's to say they can't?) And Eovaldi is playing a big part in all of this. Will he stay healthy? Who knows? Maybe he gets hurt midseason. Maybe he comes back in September very rested and dominant in October like he was in 2018. Why wouldn't you want that talent on this particular team? Yeah, you should definitely think about trading a player who is worth more to another team than he is to you. What I was criticizing was the idea "this guy stinks, so we should trade him for something great." Literally, the post I was quoting with approval was making fun of people who say "player X sucks so we should trade them to another team for a bundle of prospects."
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2022 10:19:31 GMT -5
Well we can close the book on this one. Eovaldi was paid $57.3 million and according to fangraphs was worth $58.6 million (7.3 WAR). He had 7.1 bWAR, which would be worth $57 million. Guess this worked out okay for everyone.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Oct 11, 2022 10:24:40 GMT -5
Well we can close the book on this one. Eovaldi was paid $57.3 million and according to fangraphs was worth $58.6 million (7.3 WAR). He had 7.1 bWAR, which would be worth $57 million. Guess this worked out okay for everyone. He was both excellent at times and had realized injury risk. Fascinating deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2022 11:22:39 GMT -5
I wasn't disappointed.
He won the biggest game the Sox have played since they won the World Series, the Wild Card game against the Yankees. I certainly appreciate that.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 11, 2022 12:11:37 GMT -5
Did anyone else's heart stop after thinking for a millisecond that Nathan Eovaldi had been resigned to 4 years......in 2022?
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Post by bentossaurus on Oct 11, 2022 12:26:47 GMT -5
Did anyone else's heart stop after thinking for a millisecond that Nathan Eovaldi had been resigned to 4 years......in 2022? Mine sure did. And regarding the deal, shame about the injuries, but in hindsight I would do it again.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 11, 2022 12:40:31 GMT -5
Fascinating that the dollars came out so close to projections. I wonder what impact that will have on the FO's future dealings and harden their trust in their own data analysis.
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