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Post by tookme55 on Oct 28, 2018 7:32:53 GMT -5
DD has been a straight shooter.
He identifies team needs and gets players to fill the needs. I also think he's good at reading the market.
What are the needs? 1. Closer 2. Possibly a fifth starter 3. Right handed bat for 1B to go with Moreland (who needs to be platooned) 4. Big elephant in the room......what to do at 2B?
Keep in mind he's not afraid to empty out the farm to get what he wants. It's not always free agents.
1. Not sure if we have an internal candidate. They all look to be at best set up guys. If not Kimbrel, then who? 2. Wright, Johnson, Hector are all candidates but that assumes no injuries to our top 4 which based on our history seems very unrealistic. It maybe too much to ask from Wright, Johnson and Hector to fill TWO of the starting spots. 3. Pearce would be great but what's it going to cost? 4. Nunez and Holt are much suited as utility players that can play multiple positions. Neither one should be starting 2B. I'm just not sure what to think of Pedey's health anymore. His body may just be worn out.
Devers and Beni have stepped up last two years. Who is next?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 28, 2018 10:45:10 GMT -5
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Post by elbochie on Oct 28, 2018 18:05:13 GMT -5
What are the needs? 1. Closer 2. Possibly a fifth starter 3. Right handed bat for 1B to go with Moreland (who needs to be platooned) 4. Big elephant in the room......what to do at 2B?
1) sign Miller (if healthy) 2) resign Eovaldi 3) resign Pearce 4) sign Lowrie
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 29, 2018 3:26:47 GMT -5
What are the needs? 1. Closer 2. Possibly a fifth starter 3. Right handed bat for 1B to go with Moreland (who needs to be platooned) 4. Big elephant in the room......what to do at 2B? 1) sign Miller (if healthy) 2) resign Eovaldi 3) resign Pearce 4) sign Lowrie So the answers for this incredible World Champion team are which FA’s can we afford to keep: 1. What will FA Craig Kimbrel cost to bring back 2. What will FA Britton, Herrera, etc. cost to sign if not Craig. 3. What will Joe Kelly cost to bring back. 4. What will FA Nate Eovaldi cost to bring back 5. What will FA Steve Pearce cost to bring back to platoon with MM 6. With Pedey on a year long training regimen while his knee has healed, how incredibly good will it be to have him back. 7. With Brockstar and Lin as excellent IF backups, and Nunez on a player option how soon might Marco, Quiroz, Chavis be ready to join them. 8. Finally, how bright may Thornburg, Smith, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Lakins, Feltman, Shawaryn shine in ST, in just 3.5 months. 9. Final finally. Can this great champion team with great chemistry and amazing players and staff be even better in 2019? ??
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 29, 2018 10:18:01 GMT -5
What are the needs? 1. Closer 2. Possibly a fifth starter 3. Right handed bat for 1B to go with Moreland (who needs to be platooned) 4. Big elephant in the room......what to do at 2B? 1) sign Miller (if healthy) 2) resign Eovaldi 3) resign Pearce 4) sign Lowrie So the answers for this incredible World Champion team are which FA’s can we afford to keep: 1. What will FA Craig Kimbrel cost to bring back 2. What will FA Britton, Herrera, etc. cost to sign if not Craig. 3. What will Joe Kelly cost to bring back. 4. What will FA Nate Eovaldi cost to bring back 5. What will FA Steve Pearce cost to bring back to platoon with MM 6. With Pedey on a year long training regimen while his knee has healed, how incredibly good will it be to have him back. 7. With Brockstar and Lin as excellent IF backups, and Nunez on a player option how soon might Marco, Quiroz, Chavis be ready to join them. 8. Finally, how bright may Thornburg, Smith, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Lakins, Feltman, Shawaryn shine in ST, in just 3.5 months. 9. Final finally. Can this great champion team with great chemistry and amazing players and staff be even better in 2019? ?? Yes, those are the questions. For me, I think Kimbrel is gone, if he asks for what I think he will. Eovaldi would be great in the rotation, but if it is too much, which I don't think it will be, then we must move on. I think he is cheaper than Kimbrel, and just as vital considering the make up of who is already in the rotation. I like Kelly, hope he does not ask for too much or too long a deal. Pearce is perfect to compliment Moreland. He is a life long fan at the end of his career, I am hoping he WANTS to finish it in Boston.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 31, 2018 17:14:08 GMT -5
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 17:38:10 GMT -5
I hope he can be a factor in 2019!
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 31, 2018 18:47:07 GMT -5
I hope he can be a factor in 2019! Yes, but late July/August. Not mid May as some have suggested.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 21:02:45 GMT -5
I hope he can be a factor in 2019! Yes, but late July/August. Not mid May as some have suggested. I'll predict three weeks into the season he'll be on the team, closer reasonably later.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2018 22:10:46 GMT -5
Until last year I read every box score (and often the game logs) above the DSL. I've read zero in 2017-2018. So I know almost nothing about this quartet of possible 2019 internal bullpen additions except their current scouting reports, and I'm not sure how up-to-date those are.Point of information: www.soxprospects.com/scouting.htmGreat thread. May chime in this weekend or something. The one point I'll make is that I only think Darwinzon pitches in MLB as a RP next year if they absolutely need him desperately. Break glass in case of emergency, etc. There's still a chance there's a starter in there in a way I'm not as confident about, say, Shawaryn, and they should give him a chance in that role. I could see him not even coming up to Pawtucket until late in the year. I never knew of the existence of that page. Very helpful!
Do please chime!. The only consensus so far is that Barnes and Brasier (and hence Kelly too) will be better than any of the trio of RH, and that Workman is fungible. I suppose we're headed for a conclusion that nobody knows yet how Feltman and Lakins will compare to Hembree, but that alone suggests that both will be good enough (if healthy) to be the medium-leverage #3 set-up guy.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 12, 2018 20:53:44 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Nov 12, 2018 22:46:41 GMT -5
No problem Joe come back on a 7 yr deal at 3 mil a year. This talk of 8 mil a year for multiples doesn't read Joe Kelly coming back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2018 23:21:59 GMT -5
This post might wind up looking stupid within a short span of time, but hey it wouldn't be the first time. And after all of these years I can't believe I'm saying this but: Who do I want for 2019? God help me - I think I want Joe Kelly back! This is a guy who REALLY wants to stay here so based on his track record he's not going to break the bank. We've seen Joe Kelly shuttle between Jekyll and Hyde before.....but...the Joe Kelly that emerged in the playoffs - that guy didn't walk anybody and his stuff was wicked. So wicked that by the end of the World Series he had entered my rare circle of trust - a place he has never ever occupied before and he did it during the most pressure packed of games. I know it's a SSS, and I shouldn't overreact to it, but that Joe Kelly looked different - he had excellent control and his stuff was nasty enough he could deserve a shot a long with Matt Barnes to take Craig Kimbrel's place as the closer. They're going to have to lose Kimbrel unfortunately. Maybe the changes that Kelly made is something that's reasonably sustainable. He certainly gets Boston and he handled the pressure. I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe Kelly, along with Eovaldi and Pearce is what the Sox need to bring back in 2019 and instead of replacing Kimbrel with a free agent perhaps the Sox try to find a bargain free agent to replace Kelly's middle relief/setup role if Kelly returns to close. This might wind up being a cringeworthy post in no time flat but at this moment that's how I'm starting to feel about Kelly. He's one of the 25 plus on the greatest Red Sox team of all-time so he has cache with me now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2018 2:39:18 GMT -5
This post might wind up looking stupid within a short span of time, but hey it wouldn't be the first time. And after all of these years I can't believe I'm saying this but: Who do I want for 2019? God help me - I think I want Joe Kelly back! This is a guy who REALLY wants to stay here so based on his track record he's not going to break the bank. We've seen Joe Kelly shuttle between Jekyll and Hyde before.....but...the Joe Kelly that emerged in the playoffs - that guy didn't walk anybody and his stuff was wicked. So wicked that by the end of the World Series he had entered my rare circle of trust - a place he has never ever occupied before and he did it during the most pressure packed of games. I know it's a SSS, and I shouldn't overreact to it, but that Joe Kelly looked different - he had excellent control and his stuff was nasty enough he could deserve a shot a long with Matt Barnes to take Craig Kimbrel's place as the closer. They're going to have to lose Kimbrel unfortunately. Maybe the changes that Kelly made is something that's reasonably sustainable. He certainly gets Boston and he handled the pressure. I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe Kelly, along with Eovaldi and Pearce is what the Sox need to bring back in 2019 and instead of replacing Kimbrel with a free agent perhaps the Sox try to find a bargain free agent to replace Kelly's middle relief/setup role if Kelly returns to close. This might wind up being a cringeworthy post in no time flat but at this moment that's how I'm starting to feel about Kelly. He's one of the 25 plus on the greatest Red Sox team of all-time so he has cache with me now. Kelly indeed made a sustainable change late in the season. He used to slow his arm down a bit when he threw his curve, in order to make it more of an off-speed pitch and contrast it to his slider. He (temporarily, I hope) junked the slider, which had been a plus pitch, and started throwing the curve with the same arm speed as his FB, which made it 2 mph faster than it used to be. It became a third excellent pitch to go with his FB and change.
More importantly, his command improved. A lot.
Now, the command improvement didn't happen right away, but I'm not sure it would. It takes a while to erase bad "muscle memory" from your brain; this is why it takes a week or two in the batting cage to get out of a slump even after you've identified a mechanical flaw. And using two different arm speeds is just making your muscle memory needlessly complicated.
I'm agnostic about just how much season-long improvement in command we'll see from Kelly next year; it could be very little, and at the other extreme he could be Playoff Joe Kelly all year. In order to get a better handle on the "slow erasure of bad muscle memory" hypothesis I'd have to look at the strike % of his various pitches before he made the change and see how they shifted over time afterwards, and I don't have time for that.
Assuming the reality is somewhere in between ... since he just basically told the world he'll sign for less to come back here, and other teams will have less confidence in his improvement than we will, there's no reliever who will provide more bang for the buck, for us. I'd love to see him back, and I think he can close.
The only catch in re-signing him would be if he really wants to start and some team gives him that opportunity. But you can counter that by promising him a shot at the rotation in 2020 after Porcello leaves, which would actually be smart. It allows you to deal Brian Johnson next winter, and if all goes well he'll have some real trade value as a cost-controlled mid-rotation starter. Alternately, if you decide not to extend Sale (probably for medical reasons, and maybe because Steven Wright is 100% healthy), you can keep Johnson. This Joe Kelly we're dreaming on, along with Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and Johnson as the 5th starter -- that's still a championship-caliber rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2018 4:32:03 GMT -5
This post might wind up looking stupid within a short span of time, but hey it wouldn't be the first time. And after all of these years I can't believe I'm saying this but: Who do I want for 2019? God help me - I think I want Joe Kelly back! This is a guy who REALLY wants to stay here so based on his track record he's not going to break the bank. We've seen Joe Kelly shuttle between Jekyll and Hyde before.....but...the Joe Kelly that emerged in the playoffs - that guy didn't walk anybody and his stuff was wicked. So wicked that by the end of the World Series he had entered my rare circle of trust - a place he has never ever occupied before and he did it during the most pressure packed of games. I know it's a SSS, and I shouldn't overreact to it, but that Joe Kelly looked different - he had excellent control and his stuff was nasty enough he could deserve a shot a long with Matt Barnes to take Craig Kimbrel's place as the closer. They're going to have to lose Kimbrel unfortunately. Maybe the changes that Kelly made is something that's reasonably sustainable. He certainly gets Boston and he handled the pressure. I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe Kelly, along with Eovaldi and Pearce is what the Sox need to bring back in 2019 and instead of replacing Kimbrel with a free agent perhaps the Sox try to find a bargain free agent to replace Kelly's middle relief/setup role if Kelly returns to close. This might wind up being a cringeworthy post in no time flat but at this moment that's how I'm starting to feel about Kelly. He's one of the 25 plus on the greatest Red Sox team of all-time so he has cache with me now. Kelly indeed made a sustainable change late in the season. He used to slow his arm down a bit when he threw his curve, in order to make it more of an off-speed pitch and contrast it to his slider. He (temporarily, I hope) junked the slider, which had been a plus pitch, and started throwing the curve with the same arm speed as his FB, which made it 2 mph faster than it used to be. It became a third excellent pitch to go with his FB and change. More importantly, his command improved. A lot.
Now, the command improvement didn't happen right away, but I'm not sure it would. It takes a while to erase bad "muscle memory" from your brain; this is why it takes a week or two in the batting cage to get out of a slump even after you've identified a mechanical flaw. And using two different arm speeds is just making your muscle memory needlessly complicated.
I'm agnostic about just how much season-long improvement in command we'll see from Kelly next year; it could be very little, and at the other extreme he could be Playoff Joe Kelly all year. In order to get a better handle on the "slow erasure of bad muscle memory" hypothesis I'd have to look at the strike % of his various pitches before he made the change and see how they shifted over time afterwards, and I don't have time for that.
Assuming the reality is somewhere in between ... since he just basically told the world he'll sign for less to come back here, and other teams will have less confidence in his improvement than we will, there's no reliever who will provide more bang for the buck, for us. I'd love to see him back, and I think he can close.
The only catch in re-signing him would be if he really wants to start and some team gives him that opportunity. But you can counter that by promising him a shot at the rotation in 2020 after Porcello leaves, which would actually be smart. It allows you to deal Brian Johnson next winter, and if all goes well he'll have some real trade value as a cost-controlled mid-rotation starter. Alternately, if you decide not to extend Sale (probably for medical reasons, and maybe because Steven Wright is 100% healthy), you can keep Johnson. This Joe Kelly we're dreaming on, along with Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and Johnson as the 5th starter -- that's still a championship-caliber rotation. I generally agree but I wouldn't pay him starter money to return. I'd love to have him back at a reasonable price. Also, I don't believe that's the correct usage of the word agnostic unless you are referring to the baseball gods.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 13, 2018 5:34:53 GMT -5
I agree. Yes on Joe Kelly. Good pitcher with great stuff. Still learning. Keeps improving. Younger Vet on a still young team. Clubhouse favorite. Fan favorite. World Series hero. An important part of this team for more reasons than mere stats. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier is an intimidating trio to build around. Sure he has had issues, as have Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Pom, Kimbrel, etc. MLBTR had him at about $4M, which is now probably a little light, but hopefully not so much he isn’t affordable.
And if Wright’s return is delayed, bringing back Eovaldi for similar reasons as Kelly makes even more sense.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 6:25:15 GMT -5
I agree. Yes on Joe Kelly. Good pitcher with great stuff. Still learning. Keeps improving. Younger Vet on a still young team. Clubhouse favorite. Fan favorite. World Series hero. An important part of this team for more reasons than mere stats. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier is an intimidating trio to build around. Sure he has had issues, as have Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Pom, Kimbrel, etc. MLBTR had him at about $4M, which is now probably a little light, but hopefully not so much he isn’t affordable. And if Wright’s return is delayed, bringing back Eovaldi for similar reasons as Kelly makes even more sense. Kelly will be 30 soon. He's not young.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 6:28:28 GMT -5
This post might wind up looking stupid within a short span of time, but hey it wouldn't be the first time. And after all of these years I can't believe I'm saying this but: Who do I want for 2019? God help me - I think I want Joe Kelly back! This is a guy who REALLY wants to stay here so based on his track record he's not going to break the bank. We've seen Joe Kelly shuttle between Jekyll and Hyde before.....but...the Joe Kelly that emerged in the playoffs - that guy didn't walk anybody and his stuff was wicked. So wicked that by the end of the World Series he had entered my rare circle of trust - a place he has never ever occupied before and he did it during the most pressure packed of games. I know it's a SSS, and I shouldn't overreact to it, but that Joe Kelly looked different - he had excellent control and his stuff was nasty enough he could deserve a shot a long with Matt Barnes to take Craig Kimbrel's place as the closer. They're going to have to lose Kimbrel unfortunately. Maybe the changes that Kelly made is something that's reasonably sustainable. He certainly gets Boston and he handled the pressure. I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe Kelly, along with Eovaldi and Pearce is what the Sox need to bring back in 2019 and instead of replacing Kimbrel with a free agent perhaps the Sox try to find a bargain free agent to replace Kelly's middle relief/setup role if Kelly returns to close. This might wind up being a cringeworthy post in no time flat but at this moment that's how I'm starting to feel about Kelly. He's one of the 25 plus on the greatest Red Sox team of all-time so he has cache with me now. Kelly indeed made a sustainable change late in the season. He used to slow his arm down a bit when he threw his curve, in order to make it more of an off-speed pitch and contrast it to his slider. He (temporarily, I hope) junked the slider, which had been a plus pitch, and started throwing the curve with the same arm speed as his FB, which made it 2 mph faster than it used to be. It became a third excellent pitch to go with his FB and change.
More importantly, his command improved. A lot.
Now, the command improvement didn't happen right away, but I'm not sure it would. It takes a while to erase bad "muscle memory" from your brain; this is why it takes a week or two in the batting cage to get out of a slump even after you've identified a mechanical flaw. And using two different arm speeds is just making your muscle memory needlessly complicated.
I'm agnostic about just how much season-long improvement in command we'll see from Kelly next year; it could be very little, and at the other extreme he could be Playoff Joe Kelly all year. In order to get a better handle on the "slow erasure of bad muscle memory" hypothesis I'd have to look at the strike % of his various pitches before he made the change and see how they shifted over time afterwards, and I don't have time for that.
Assuming the reality is somewhere in between ... since he just basically told the world he'll sign for less to come back here, and other teams will have less confidence in his improvement than we will, there's no reliever who will provide more bang for the buck, for us. I'd love to see him back, and I think he can close.
The only catch in re-signing him would be if he really wants to start and some team gives him that opportunity. But you can counter that by promising him a shot at the rotation in 2020 after Porcello leaves, which would actually be smart. It allows you to deal Brian Johnson next winter, and if all goes well he'll have some real trade value as a cost-controlled mid-rotation starter. Alternately, if you decide not to extend Sale (probably for medical reasons, and maybe because Steven Wright is 100% healthy), you can keep Johnson. This Joe Kelly we're dreaming on, along with Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and Johnson as the 5th starter -- that's still a championship-caliber rotation. Why would you promise Kelly that he would ever get the chance to start here again? The Sox did that for 3-4 years here and he was bad at it. Hard pass. Joe Kelly might be the same inconsistent pitcher he always is. If he's willing to take 4-6 million a year to stay, fine. Anything beyond that, pass again. Brian Johnson isn't worth anything in a trade. Wright just had a second knee procedure and will be 35. He might never be healthy again.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 6:52:28 GMT -5
Craig Kimbrel officially declined the Qualifying offer yesterday.
He's as good as gone now. Thanks for the memories and heart attacks.
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Nov 13, 2018 7:17:39 GMT -5
Craig Kimbrel officially declined the Qualifying offer yesterday. He's as good as gone now. Thanks for the memories and heart attacks. Give us that draft pick, and thanks for everything, Craig. Maybe consider shaving that neck beard?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 13, 2018 12:51:46 GMT -5
I agree. Yes on Joe Kelly. Good pitcher with great stuff. Still learning. Keeps improving. Younger Vet on a still young team. Clubhouse favorite. Fan favorite. World Series hero. An important part of this team for more reasons than mere stats. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier is an intimidating trio to build around. Sure he has had issues, as have Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, Pom, Kimbrel, etc. MLBTR had him at about $4M, which is now probably a little light, but hopefully not so much he isn’t affordable. And if Wright’s return is delayed, bringing back Eovaldi for similar reasons as Kelly makes even more sense. Kelly will be 30 soon. He's not young. The point is he is young for a veteran with a good deal of postseason experience. Guys like Lakins, Feltman, Shawaryn, Hernandez, Houck are nearing the Majors as well as Poyner, Scott, etc. They would all benefit from having an experienced, accessible, fun, social, YOUNG veteran in the clubhouse and bullpen along with Barnes and Brazier.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2018 17:03:20 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2018 18:46:04 GMT -5
This post might wind up looking stupid within a short span of time, but hey it wouldn't be the first time. And after all of these years I can't believe I'm saying this but: Who do I want for 2019? God help me - I think I want Joe Kelly back! This is a guy who REALLY wants to stay here so based on his track record he's not going to break the bank. We've seen Joe Kelly shuttle between Jekyll and Hyde before.....but...the Joe Kelly that emerged in the playoffs - that guy didn't walk anybody and his stuff was wicked. So wicked that by the end of the World Series he had entered my rare circle of trust - a place he has never ever occupied before and he did it during the most pressure packed of games. I know it's a SSS, and I shouldn't overreact to it, but that Joe Kelly looked different - he had excellent control and his stuff was nasty enough he could deserve a shot a long with Matt Barnes to take Craig Kimbrel's place as the closer. They're going to have to lose Kimbrel unfortunately. Maybe the changes that Kelly made is something that's reasonably sustainable. He certainly gets Boston and he handled the pressure. I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe Kelly, along with Eovaldi and Pearce is what the Sox need to bring back in 2019 and instead of replacing Kimbrel with a free agent perhaps the Sox try to find a bargain free agent to replace Kelly's middle relief/setup role if Kelly returns to close. This might wind up being a cringeworthy post in no time flat but at this moment that's how I'm starting to feel about Kelly. He's one of the 25 plus on the greatest Red Sox team of all-time so he has cache with me now. Kelly indeed made a sustainable change late in the season. He used to slow his arm down a bit when he threw his curve, in order to make it more of an off-speed pitch and contrast it to his slider. He (temporarily, I hope) junked the slider, which had been a plus pitch, and started throwing the curve with the same arm speed as his FB, which made it 2 mph faster than it used to be. It became a third excellent pitch to go with his FB and change. More importantly, his command improved. A lot.
Now, the command improvement didn't happen right away, but I'm not sure it would. It takes a while to erase bad "muscle memory" from your brain; this is why it takes a week or two in the batting cage to get out of a slump even after you've identified a mechanical flaw. And using two different arm speeds is just making your muscle memory needlessly complicated.
I'm agnostic about just how much season-long improvement in command we'll see from Kelly next year; it could be very little, and at the other extreme he could be Playoff Joe Kelly all year. In order to get a better handle on the "slow erasure of bad muscle memory" hypothesis I'd have to look at the strike % of his various pitches before he made the change and see how they shifted over time afterwards, and I don't have time for that.
Assuming the reality is somewhere in between ... since he just basically told the world he'll sign for less to come back here, and other teams will have less confidence in his improvement than we will, there's no reliever who will provide more bang for the buck, for us. I'd love to see him back, and I think he can close.
The only catch in re-signing him would be if he really wants to start and some team gives him that opportunity. But you can counter that by promising him a shot at the rotation in 2020 after Porcello leaves, which would actually be smart. It allows you to deal Brian Johnson next winter, and if all goes well he'll have some real trade value as a cost-controlled mid-rotation starter. Alternately, if you decide not to extend Sale (probably for medical reasons, and maybe because Steven Wright is 100% healthy), you can keep Johnson. This Joe Kelly we're dreaming on, along with Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and Johnson as the 5th starter -- that's still a championship-caliber rotation. I love the idea of brining back Kelly and using him as a 2 inning every other day guy or even as an opener for the 3rd and 5th starters. I would not use him as a starter, but would see if he's interested in a 3 year deal with escalators based on innings and/or appearances. I think he could be a real asset as a multi-inning guy or a spot high leverage guy.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2018 11:35:47 GMT -5
Kelly indeed made a sustainable change late in the season. He used to slow his arm down a bit when he threw his curve, in order to make it more of an off-speed pitch and contrast it to his slider. He (temporarily, I hope) junked the slider, which had been a plus pitch, and started throwing the curve with the same arm speed as his FB, which made it 2 mph faster than it used to be. It became a third excellent pitch to go with his FB and change. More importantly, his command improved. A lot.
Now, the command improvement didn't happen right away, but I'm not sure it would. It takes a while to erase bad "muscle memory" from your brain; this is why it takes a week or two in the batting cage to get out of a slump even after you've identified a mechanical flaw. And using two different arm speeds is just making your muscle memory needlessly complicated.
I'm agnostic about just how much season-long improvement in command we'll see from Kelly next year; it could be very little, and at the other extreme he could be Playoff Joe Kelly all year. In order to get a better handle on the "slow erasure of bad muscle memory" hypothesis I'd have to look at the strike % of his various pitches before he made the change and see how they shifted over time afterwards, and I don't have time for that.
Assuming the reality is somewhere in between ... since he just basically told the world he'll sign for less to come back here, and other teams will have less confidence in his improvement than we will, there's no reliever who will provide more bang for the buck, for us. I'd love to see him back, and I think he can close.
The only catch in re-signing him would be if he really wants to start and some team gives him that opportunity. But you can counter that by promising him a shot at the rotation in 2020 after Porcello leaves, which would actually be smart. It allows you to deal Brian Johnson next winter, and if all goes well he'll have some real trade value as a cost-controlled mid-rotation starter. Alternately, if you decide not to extend Sale (probably for medical reasons, and maybe because Steven Wright is 100% healthy), you can keep Johnson. This Joe Kelly we're dreaming on, along with Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and Johnson as the 5th starter -- that's still a championship-caliber rotation. I love the idea of brining back Kelly and using him as a 2 inning every other day guy or even as an opener for the 3rd and 5th starters. I would not use him as a starter, but would see if he's interested in a 3 year deal with escalators based on innings and/or appearances. I think he could be a real asset as a multi-inning guy or a spot high leverage guy. Very interesting thought. They could go semi-Rays and start breaking in pitchers like Houck and Hernandez who sorta fit the profile as well (great stuff, not enough pitches/great stuff, not enough control/command) of 2-times-through guys like Glasnow. I’d have no problem with a base 3/18 and escalators that could turn it to, say, 3/33.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 16, 2018 10:00:43 GMT -5
As much as I like Craig Kimbrel, I'd really like to see the Sox sign two relievers to handle the 8th and 9th in a different manner. No idea what it would take, but signing Andrew Miller and David Robertson would make my day and give Cora a great deal of flexibility.
Count me, as one who is sold on the idea of seeing who is coming up in the 8th, when leading, and bringing in your best reliever depending on that situation. With Miller and Robertson, you have two guys who have closed and who have show the ability to thrive in the 7th or 8th inning, and not let it effect their performance.
Kimbrel always blows my mind that he can't seem to come in a forget that it isn't a SAVE opportunity. This saving your best pitcher for the 9th inning, in my opinion, is ridiculous. If the heart of the order is coming up in the 8th, what are you waiting for to bring in your best option??
Many so called "experts", think the SAVE category is over emphasized. Have your best ready for their best!
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