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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by orion09 on Nov 26, 2018 2:10:04 GMT -5
This has been discussed in spurts elsewhere, but I thought I'd start a dedicated thread. The 2018-2019 offseason should be fairly slow for the Sox, and deservedly so, but next year large decisions loom in our legend: Red Sox FARick Porcello (SP) Chris Sale (SP) Tyler Thornburg (RP) Mitch Moreland (1B) Steve Pearce (1B) Eduardo Nunez (2B/3B) Brock Holt (2B/Util) Xander Bogaerts (SS) Red Sox Opt-Outs
JD Martinez (DH/OF) Essentially, after 2019, the Sox will have to fill big holes at 1B, SS, and DH (assuming JD opts out). They'll also have to fill two SP slots. MLBTR has an overview here of FAs available next year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 2:33:21 GMT -5
Potentially 112 million AAV coming off the books by the end of the 2019 season (at least 110 million). Pablo Sandoval will only be owed 5 million in 2020 with a buyout at this point (god what a awful deal that was).
You probably have the room for Xander, Sale, and Mookie in future years if you wanted to finagle everything. Those are the three you keep (Mookie a free agent after 2020).
You're cornered into giving Sale a huge deal because you have no one close to that talent level to replace him. The wearing down issues are real, but he's not replaceable.
The fact that you hardballed Scott Boras and JD Martinez into a 5 year deal means you probably lose him with that opt out approaching. You give him that 6th year in his original deal, then he probably doesn't have a opt out until after year 3 or 4. He's the 4th guy you keep, but it'll be hard to do it. Chavis is probably the guy you give a outfield spot or DH spot anyways. Maybe Ockimey also finds a way up into a DH spot for cheap if you manage to keep him. Your lineup will lose a ton, and this team will look more like 2017 with a older Chris Sale and Price, which is depressing.
Goodbye to Porcello, Moreland, and JBJ. JBJ should be traded to open up more payroll room and to be replaced with cheaper contracts and prospects. You give Porcello the qualifying offer and move on.
Hopefully Eovaldi is signed this offseason to help out the loss of Porcello a bit in 2020.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 2:47:51 GMT -5
The other problem you have is you don't know what Xander or Mookie is going to do.
You don't know if Mookie is going to take the money yet and stay, he hasn't until this point.
The other problem is that Xander is represented by Boras, who could easily find a way for him to be overpaid.
If Xander does become a potential 28 million dollar AAV guy for 7+ years, then you could move on to a guy like Paul Goldschmidt on the market via free agency or resign JDM. You have to find a way to replace Xander via the trade route or possibly go with Lin for a short time until you figure something else out. Maybe Lin pans out, but hard to project that. It might be more wishful thinking, even if Lin has done nothing but produce at AAA at this point.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 26, 2018 2:49:24 GMT -5
MLBTR has 5 "shortstops" available next year, 3 of whom are currently on the Sox: Bogaerts, Holt, and Nunez. The other two are Elvis Andrus and Didi Gregorius. Essentially, the Sox have 5 options: 1) Resign Bogaerts after 2019. (Agent: Boras Corp) 2) Sign Andrus to a 3-4 year deal. (Agent: Boras Corp) 3) Sign Gregorius to a 2-5 year deal. (Agent: Wasserman Media Group) 4) Use Tzu-Wei Lin as a 1-year stopgap, with the hope that either CJ Chatham or a trade acquisition can help out mid-season, or, 5) Pursue trade options. FWAR/BWAR: | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 4 Yr Avg | (FWAR+BWAR)/2, 4 Yr Avg | Bogaerts | 4.6/4.5 | 4.8/3.8 | 3.2/2.2 | 4.9/3.8 | 4.4/3.6 | 4.0 | Andrus | 1.8/2.1 | 2.3/3.7 | 4.1/4.7 | 1.2/1.7 | 2.4/3.1 | 2.7 | Gregorius | 3.3/3.1 | 3.6/2.2 | 3.1/3.7 | 2.3/4.2 | 3.1/3.3 | 3.2 |
Thoughts: 1) Between the 3 FA options, it's going to be hard to replace Bogaert's production over the course of a potential deal. He'll be in his age-27 season in 2020, while Gregorius will be 30 and Andrus will be 31. 2) Andrus has been a slightly-below league average hitter over the last 4 years (93 WRC+), while Gregorius (104) and Bogaerts (113) have been above average. Gregorius grades out as the best defender (10.4 avg DEF), while Andrus (4.6) grades out as worse than Bogaerts (7.0). 3) Since Andrus is the oldest and the worst defender (aka: don't sign him to a multiyear deal), not to mention the least productive player, I think we can pretty well eliminate option 2. 4) Gregorius is an interesting bounce-back candidate. He'll be coming off TJ surgery in late 2019, so depending on how he shows, he could be a candidate for an incentive-laden 2-year deal, a longer deal more like JD's with health clauses and opt-outs, or even a 1-year pillow contract.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 2:52:29 GMT -5
I don't think the Yankees will let Didi get to the market personally (extension candidate). He's a important piece over there and he fits well at Yankee stadium. I hope the Yankees give Didi a awful contract too.
Xander will be by FAR the best option out there at short stop at age 27. The market could get ridiculous.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 26, 2018 3:02:06 GMT -5
You're cornered into giving Sale a huge deal because you have no one close to that talent level to replace him. The wearing down issues are real, but he's not replaceable. The other big FA name on the market is Gerrit Cole. I might let Sale walk and sign Cole instead. He's two years younger and doesn't have shoulder questions, though he's had various minor elbow/triceps injuries. Cole is another Boras guy, btw, so he's pretty much guaranteed to hit the market, but will get big money. Bumgarner will be available, though he seems to be a shell of his former self since the dirtbike accident. He'll be 30 and I can't see the Sox giving him a long-term deal. Also available will be Verlander (age 37 in 2020) and Zack Wheeler (30). Verlander could be great on a 2-3 year deal, though I see him resigning with HOU. Wheeler could be an interesting candidate for a 2-4 year deal, depending on his showing in 2019.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 3:04:50 GMT -5
You're cornered into giving Sale a huge deal because you have no one close to that talent level to replace him. The wearing down issues are real, but he's not replaceable. The other big FA name on the market is Gerrit Cole. I might let Sale walk and sign Cole instead. He's two years younger and doesn't have shoulder questions, though he's had various minor elbow/triceps injuries. Cole is another Boras guy, btw, so he's pretty much guaranteed to hit the market, but will get big money. Bumgarner will be available, though he seems to be a shell of his former self since the dirtbike accident. He'll be 30 and I can't see the Sox giving him a long-term deal. Also available will be Verlander (age 37 in 2020) and Zack Wheeler (30). Verlander could be great on a 2-3 year deal, though I see him resigning with HOU. Wheeler could be an interesting candidate for a 2-4 year deal, depending on his showing in 2019. Give me Sale over all these guys personally. I'll take his issues over all these other players. Cole is younger, but he has been way more inconsistent too at various points in his career.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 26, 2018 3:11:37 GMT -5
I don't think the Yankees will let Didi get to the market personally (extension candidate). He's a important piece over there and he fits well at Yankee stadium. I hope the Yankees give Didi a awful contract too. I think you may be right. The question is how much they like Torres at shortstop. If they think his defense will improve enough, they could give him the starting job. He'll have most of 2019 to earn it, and beyond 2019, he's got 5 years of team control. That's a huge potential savings over Gregorius--and IMO the modern-day Yankees are thinking a lot about efficiency of money spent (so they can utilize their large budget most effectively).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 3:18:57 GMT -5
I don't think the Yankees will let Didi get to the market personally (extension candidate). He's a important piece over there and he fits well at Yankee stadium. I hope the Yankees give Didi a awful contract too. I think you may be right. The question is how much they like Torres at shortstop. If they think his defense will improve enough, they could give him the starting job. He'll have most of 2019 to earn it, and beyond 2019, he's got 5 years of team control. That's a huge potential savings over Gregorius--and IMO the modern-day Yankees are thinking a lot about efficiency of money spent (so they can utilize their large budget most effectively). Yeah give you credit for thinking that Torres can slide over, which could happen. Torres looks sloppy at second base a ton though. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a short stop job, but he certainly has the arm and range to do it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 3:41:39 GMT -5
The other hidden thing that might need to be mentioned is that Benny will be approaching arbitration for the first time in 2020.
You need to find a way to try and get him extended too. Benny is solid over there and he should be here for a very long time.
I'm having a hard enough time talking about Xander leaving. 10 years watching Xander as a prospect, and now he's a dude in his prime about to be paid. There's a attachment there. 2 time world champion homegrown. He's the first homegrown short stop to win multiple titles since the ealry 1900's. Between talking about him and Mookie's free agency status, this is where I might be for the first time getting anxious talking about anything here lol. There's a huge part of my soul that will be ripped out of my skin if I see them play anywhere else. It is what it is though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 5:21:50 GMT -5
I think you may be right. The question is how much they like Torres at shortstop. If they think his defense will improve enough, they could give him the starting job. He'll have most of 2019 to earn it, and beyond 2019, he's got 5 years of team control. That's a huge potential savings over Gregorius--and IMO the modern-day Yankees are thinking a lot about efficiency of money spent (so they can utilize their large budget most effectively). Yeah give you credit for thinking that Torres can slide over, which could happen. Torres looks sloppy at second base a ton though. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a short stop job, but he certainly has the arm and range to do it. There's also the distinct possibility that Gregorius gets non-tendered. He'll only be able to play a few months, if that, and will make about $10m in arbitration ($8.5m this year) for his final year. That's a stiff price to pay, especially if the Yankees spend big elsewhere.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 5:31:58 GMT -5
Yeah give you credit for thinking that Torres can slide over, which could happen. Torres looks sloppy at second base a ton though. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable giving him a short stop job, but he certainly has the arm and range to do it. There's also the distinct possibility that Gregorius gets non-tendered. He'll only be able to play a few months, if that, and will make about $10m in arbitration ($8.5m this year) for his final year. That's a stiff price to pay, especially if the Yankees spend big elsewhere. If the Yankees did that, I think they'd just bring him back on a cheaper one year deal. That is a high price to pay on a guy that you have no idea is able to play outside of 2 months maybe to end the year though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 5:34:31 GMT -5
There's also the distinct possibility that Gregorius gets non-tendered. He'll only be able to play a few months, if that, and will make about $10m in arbitration ($8.5m this year) for his final year. That's a stiff price to pay, especially if the Yankees spend big elsewhere. If the Yankees did that, I think they'd just bring him back on a cheaper one year deal. That is a high price to pay on a guy that you have no idea is able to play outside of 2 months maybe to end the year though. I'm not sure how the player's union would take to that. Can you think of anyone non-tendered to avoid arbitration then signed by the same team ?
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 26, 2018 5:36:14 GMT -5
This has been discussed in spurts elsewhere, but I thought I'd start a dedicated thread. The 2018-2019 offseason should be fairly slow for the Sox, and deservedly so, but next year large decisions loom in our legend: Red Sox FARick Porcello (SP) Chris Sale (SP) Tyler Thornburg (RP) Mitch Moreland (1B) Steve Pearce (1B) Eduardo Nunez (2B/3B) Brock Holt (2B/Util) Xander Bogaerts (SS) Red Sox Opt-Outs
JD Martinez (DH/OF) Essentially, after 2019, the Sox will have to fill big holes at 1B, SS, and DH (assuming JD opts out). They'll also have to fill two SP slots. MLBTR has an overview here of FAs available next year. Large decisions yes but not difficult ones; Porcello - Extension, an outstanding #3 or #4 Starter. Takes the ball every 5th day is never hurt & eats up innings. Sale - If for some reason the Sox are out of it at the trade deadline you trade him otherwise you pitch him like they did this past year then you let him walk. He is not reliable enough for the money he will command and his shoulder is a big concern going forward. Thornburg - Wait and see Moreland - Let him walk Pearce - let him walk Nunez - Let him walk Holt - Extension, he & Lin are the utility players Bogaerts - Boras is going to take him to the highest bidder so a lot depends on Chatham's development this year. Hopefully he is ready & he is the next Shortstop because Bogaerts is going to be to expensive, J.D. Martinez, Betts, Benintendi & another Starting Pitcher are more important. J.D. Martinez - Rework his contract & extend him. Looking forward the core of this Offense for the next 5 years should be; Martinez, Betts, Benitendi, Devers & Vazquez. With Pedroia signed through 2021. And the core of the Starting Pitchers for the next 4 years should be; Price, Porcello & E Rod.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 5:56:44 GMT -5
I'm not as confident in Chatham as most seem to be. He's not very advanced for a 23 year old college player. His absolute ceiling is average but he just doesn't strike me as someone likely to achieve his ceiling.
I'm significantly more confident in Lin.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 26, 2018 10:33:41 GMT -5
Gregorius isn't even an option for the Red Sox. His swing is built for Yankee Stadium and is pretty much useless in Fenway. He's worth way more to the Yankees than to the Red Sox because of that. He'll never have a .273 ISO anywhere else but Yankee Stadium.
Last year he had a 149 wRC+ at home and 89 on the road.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 10:50:15 GMT -5
He'll need to find a park with a small right field, there, he'll have value.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 13:04:34 GMT -5
If the Yankees did that, I think they'd just bring him back on a cheaper one year deal. That is a high price to pay on a guy that you have no idea is able to play outside of 2 months maybe to end the year though. I'm not sure how the player's union would take to that. Can you think of anyone non-tendered to avoid arbitration then signed by the same team ? Wasn't Andrew Miller non tendered and brought back on a major league invite to spring training? I'm not sure. Maybe the Yankees don't non tender him and give him his salary in good faith that he'll sign a extension with them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 26, 2018 14:25:59 GMT -5
I'm not sure how the player's union would take to that. Can you think of anyone non-tendered to avoid arbitration then signed by the same team ? Wasn't Andrew Miller non tendered and brought back on a major league invite to spring training? I'm not sure. Maybe the Yankees don't non tender him and give him his salary in good faith that he'll sign a extension with them. Yeah, non-tendering a player makes him a free agent, and if he chooses to re-sign with that same team (usually on a minor league deal), that's his prerogative. That is exactly what happened with Miller and has happened with others as well. I feel like they did something like this with Devern Hansack as well?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 26, 2018 19:39:22 GMT -5
I'm not as confident in Chatham as most seem to be. He's not very advanced for a 23 year old college player. His absolute ceiling is average but he just doesn't strike me as someone likely to achieve his ceiling. I'm significantly more confident in Lin. I agree. Right now Chatham is basically a non-prospect. Lin is more like a super utility guy than an everyday starter.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 26, 2018 19:47:46 GMT -5
This has been discussed in spurts elsewhere, but I thought I'd start a dedicated thread. The 2018-2019 offseason should be fairly slow for the Sox, and deservedly so, but next year large decisions loom in our legend: Red Sox FARick Porcello (SP) Chris Sale (SP) Tyler Thornburg (RP) Mitch Moreland (1B) Steve Pearce (1B) Eduardo Nunez (2B/3B) Brock Holt (2B/Util) Xander Bogaerts (SS) Red Sox Opt-Outs
JD Martinez (DH/OF) Essentially, after 2019, the Sox will have to fill big holes at 1B, SS, and DH (assuming JD opts out). They'll also have to fill two SP slots. MLBTR has an overview here of FAs available next year. This is exaclt why I have been saying that the Sox NEED to make determinations on who they can/want to resign THIS off-season. Position-specific may be more available this off season than next, especially with Eovaldi, Corbin, Harper and Machado this off-season. Sale, Xander Betts and JBJ could all be gone and there are no internal replacements for any of them. It’s an immediate two year plan with an eye to a full five year plan. I.E., if you know Xander is going to market and you don’t want to go over 5 years, it could be better to get his replacement now and trade him for assts, etc.mAnother example, Sale you don’t trade, but if you aren’t going to resign him - and shoulders are much tougher to fix than elbows - maybe you acquire his replacement a year early and trade Porcello now for salary reduction/more assets.
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Post by Canseco on Nov 26, 2018 22:03:48 GMT -5
Bogaerts is the guy I’d move or let walk. First, there’s the Boras thing—although his influence may be somewhat overstated these days. Secondly, X’s deteriorating defense at SS makes him a big time “sell high” candidate. We have solid corner IFs in the system, so the cash it would take to extend Bogey could probably be more wisely spent while improving the club’s up-the-middle defense.
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Post by sparkygian on Nov 26, 2018 23:06:27 GMT -5
What happens if next year JBJ and Bogaerts both have a massive year on offense? In that case will there be more of a focus on keeping Bogaerts, as opposed to Betts, assuming Betts has another great season and so will definitely be seeking a massive contract -- more than the money Bogaerts will be expecting to get, I'm guessing. I still believe that Bogaerts is still tapping into his all-around potential and could really put it all together next year, and it wouldn't be a big surprise to me if JBJ finally has a breakout season next year, or at least put up hitting stats more along the lines of his 2016 season. I was kind of wandering if the Hyers' emphasis on swinging with more of an upper-cut for the Sox played havoc on JBJ's swing for the first half of the season.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 26, 2018 23:52:48 GMT -5
I think with some of these guys its going to have to go the Patriot way where they test the market first before coming back, unfortunately.
Porcello though I see as a guy that might re-sign a year early, he’s done it before and he’s a horse. I’d do that if we can.
I think the Boras clients will leave. Focus on Betts and Sale.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 27, 2018 0:52:54 GMT -5
This discussion would work so much better if we had reasonable estimates, which we do not, of: 1. what will an extension of Barnes, Beni, Betts, Bogaerts, JDM, Bradley, Porcello, Sale cost. We have to wade thru this offseason before having a clue. 2. who of the 2018 team performs well enough to be on the 2019 roster and beyond. That information is, actually, almost a year away. 3. How many minimum salaries among Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec, Lin, Ockimey, Feltman, Hernandez, Houck, Lakins, Mata, Shawaryn, etc. will likely be on the 2020 roster and beyond. Again, almost a year away. 4. How does DDo work trades and FA signings over the next 12 months.
My hope is that the core essentially stays together, that they are joined by extended stars like JDM and Sale to help lead the club for another 5 years, and that several advanced prospects shine in 2019 even as the lower levels start developing the next core. Can’t wish for more than that without a crystal ball.
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