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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by telson13 on Nov 27, 2018 0:53:15 GMT -5
I'm not as confident in Chatham as most seem to be. He's not very advanced for a 23 year old college player. His absolute ceiling is average but he just doesn't strike me as someone likely to achieve his ceiling. I'm significantly more confident in Lin. Lol, right? Lin is only a year older but has played three levels higher (MLB vs hi-A), and his discipline and power numbers in AAA were much, MUCH better than Chatham in A ball. Not to mention, he’s faster and almost assuredly better defensively. Chatham basically only has recency bias as a recent 2nd-rd pick on his side (plus he’s big, so people equate that with likelihood of success, in spite of, you know, the entire starting OF). And people seem bound and determined to pretend Lin didn’t revamp his whole approach, and presume he’s going to turn back into his old GB-heavy .240/.320/.340 self. I’m WAY more confident in Lin becoming starting-caliber (2-3 WAR) than Chatham.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 27, 2018 3:27:55 GMT -5
I've gathered some potential comps for Xander's contract. Here are all the FA contracts signed in the last 4 seasons that meet the following criteria: - Position player under 30 y.o.
- $50M+ deal
- 5+ year deal
Player | Agency | Age @ Signing | Amount (M) | Years | AAV (M) | Avg FWAR, 3 yrs prior | Jason Heyward
| Excel
| 26
| $184
| 8
| $23
| 4.5 | Eric Hosmer
| Boras
| 27
| $144
| 8
| $18
| 2.6 | Justin Upton
| Reynolds
| 28
| $132.75
| 6
| $22.125
| 3.5 | Chris Davis
| Boras
| 29
| $161
| 7
| $23
| 4.4 | JD Martinez | Boras | 29 | $110 | 5 | $22 | 3.7 | Xander Bogaerts | Boras | 26 | ?? | ?? | ?? | 4.3 |
No other shortstops, obviously, which highlights the rarity of a 26 y.o. FA at a premium position. You can draw your own conclusions. IMO a lot depends on the year Xander has in 2019. If he puts up another 125-135 WRC+ season (or higher), I think he gets 7-8 years @ $23M AAV.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 27, 2018 6:17:06 GMT -5
I'd expect the Xander market to be completely different from the list above. I mean, if Xander is a 23-25 mill AAV guy, you sign him. Easy call.
None of those guys listed above really had a bidder war. Heyward is probably the closest comp to Xander on that list and had the Nationals and Cubs in hard on him. Xander will probably get less years and a similar price tag imo.
JD Martinez had zero market and the Sox held him over a barrel. Hosmer had the Padres and Royals in a bidding war, LOL to that. Chris Davis had no one in on him. The Orioles bid against themselves there.
Upton's contract was interesting, but he plays a less important position and had no market either.
The White Sox, Phillies, and possibly Braves will have money coming out of their noses to spend the next two offseasons. They are serious threats to making the Sox cost controls on their potential free agents a living nightmare. They have serious needs at short stop too.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 27, 2018 12:17:51 GMT -5
This discussion would work so much better if we had reasonable estimates, which we do not, of: 1. what will an extension of Barnes, Beni, Betts, Bogaerts, JDM, Bradley, Porcello, Sale cost. We have to wade thru this offseason before having a clue. 2. who of the 2018 team performs well enough to be on the 2019 roster and beyond. That information is, actually, almost a year away. 3. How many minimum salaries among Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec, Lin, Ockimey Feltman, Hernandez, Houck, Lakins, Mata, Shawaryn, etc. will likely be on the 2020 roster and beyond. Again, almost a year away. 4. How does DDo work trades and FA signings over the next 12 months.
My hope is that the core essentially stays together, that they are joined by extended stars like JDM and Sale to help lead the club for another 5 years, and that several advanced prospects shine in 2019 even as the lower levels start developing the next core. Can’t wish for more than that without a crystal ball. Just guessing here but Bogaerts, Porcello and Sale are likely the most probable candidates for potential extensions this off season. Mookie has said he wants to go year to year and test the market, I think they either ride JBJ to the end of his service time and let him walk or trade him, and Dombrowski has publicly stated they aren't going to increase JDM's deal. Sale will be on the wrong side of 30 and has had shoulder problems, but will want a minimum of 5 years and likely someone in the open market would give him 6 or even 7 years given his track record and elite status. The Sox have seen his medical reports and any MRIs (which are not always conclusive but provide more info than the market possesses), so it's up to them to decide to extend now or let him walk after next year - unless he wants to take an incentive-laden/discount deal, which seems highly improbable barring a major injury this year. My guess is 5-6 years at $25-$30M AAV depending on how the market views his shoulder. I think unless the medicals are very good, you let him walk and pursue Cole or acquire another younger, near-elite starter via trade; the latter won't be easy given the current state of the farm system. Porcello will also be on the wrong end of 30 but has proven durable so far. He has been an average of 3.1 fwar pitcher for the last 4 years but had that one extreme outlier 5.2 fwar year. Steamer has him at 2.6 fwar in his age 30 year. That makes him a #3-4 starter who has flashes of being a #2 from time to time, but will be getting older and so will likely decline to a #5 starter within the next 3 years or so. They'll have to decide if they would be willing to give him 4-5 years at something near his current $20M AAV. Depending on who is available. That seems a bit unlikely. Bogaerts will be hitting the market at age 27 as likely the best free agent SS available next year and has Scott Boras as an agent. He has averaged 4.3 fwar, which includes a 3.2 fwar season when he had an injured thumb for most of the year. By this year's 4.9 fwar, he was the 6th best SS in the league. If like many of us, the market believes he still has some room to improve, he could be a 5.0+ fwar player for at least the next 3-4 years, and could even move to 3rd base after age 31-32 or so and still maintain good value. He should get a very lucrative 6 year deal (or even 7 if someone's desperate). You could be looking at anywhere from $23M-$27M AVV, barring an injury and depending on the market's needs. Also, I believe Ockimey was left unprotected for this off-season, so you can chalk him and likely Chatham - who has not progressed to where anyone but his mother can see him as a 25 man MLB roster guy in 2020 - to minor league salaries or gone. Not sure they work on extensions with any of those other guys in the next 1-2 years.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 0:13:11 GMT -5
Also, I believe Ockimey was left unprotected for this off-season, so you can chalk him and likely Chatham - who has not progressed to where anyone but his mother can see him as a 25 man MLB roster guy in 2020 - to minor league salaries or gone. Not sure they work on extensions with any of those other guys in the next 1-2 years. Chatham had 2 full seasons ruined by injury, it's not as if he's played this whole time and just didn't progress. He may not be completely ready for 2020, but it's somewhat premature to write him off altogether. I have hope for Chatham, but as I wrote elsewhere, I think Lin is a far stronger candidate at this point to be a viable “replacement” for Bogey. I’m pretty confident after his AAA season this year that Lin can get to the .270-.280/.330-.340/.400-.420 range in MLB. He went .307/.362/.448 in basically a half-season in Pawtucket, and that was a continuation of his 2017 performance in terms of results and approach (at least AA as he struggled last year in AAA). He has little HR power, but he hits LD and could probably hit 25-30 doubles to go with 10-12 HR. There’s definitely recently been a spate of low-power guys in the minors hitting for more power on MLB arrival ostensibly because of the ball. Lin’s MLB line, at 23-24 (and often riding pine, which probably hurt him offensively) is .256/.348/.380, meaning he’s OPS’d .728. That’s not bad for a SS who is above-average defensively and a good base runner. He’s walked at a 12.2% clip, which is excellent, and K’d at 24.5%, which is mediocre but not awful. I’d expect both rates to improve some with experience and reps, and regular playing time. He’s been worth 0.5 fWAR in 139 PA over 62 games; given 650 PA that’s 2.4 fWAR, making him a solid-avg regular. He also showed a lot better XBH power this year vs last, his ISOP going from 0.071 to 0.169. My guess is he settles closer to his average, 0.124, tho he might get up near .150 if helped by the ball and some added strength. Personally I think he’s shown a good understanding of the zone and a very encouraging attempt to lift the ball some (LD vs his prior old-school “hit it on the ground cuz you’re fast” approach). I think the BABIPs are sustainable, given his speed and ability to hit liners, which have a very high hit probability. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he might crack .300 someday, and he could very well peak at 3-4 WAR. Personally, I’d like very much to see him get a real shot, and I think his presence allows for some leeway in Chatham’s development. I really like Bogey and I hope they keep him, depending on cost. But with Pedroia aging, Lin (and Holt, who seemed to make some positive changes to HIS approach) could be a primary 2b or SS and fill in at 3b or even CF. His 96 career wRC+ plays anywhere of those 4 positions except 3b provided his defense stays above-avg (should be plus at 2b and we’ve seen him play plus at 3b). So I think he does provide some insurance at multiple INF spots, and particularly at SS if Bogey’s price tag is too high. The $20M they’d save in AAV could be used to replace those 2-3 WAR elsewhere. And as you say, Chatham has been injury-bugged and had his development delayed. If he can get a couple of full healthy seasons in, he certainly has the talent to become an average defensive SS who might have some LD pop like Lin. My hope is that Chatham gets healthy and starts making some real improvements, with full seasons in AA and AAA in ‘19/‘20.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 0:33:31 GMT -5
This discussion would work so much better if we had reasonable estimates, which we do not, of: 1. what will an extension of Barnes, Beni, Betts, Bogaerts, JDM, Bradley, Porcello, Sale cost. We have to wade thru this offseason before having a clue. 2. who of the 2018 team performs well enough to be on the 2019 roster and beyond. That information is, actually, almost a year away. 3. How many minimum salaries among Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec, Lin, Ockimey Feltman, Hernandez, Houck, Lakins, Mata, Shawaryn, etc. will likely be on the 2020 roster and beyond. Again, almost a year away. 4. How does DDo work trades and FA signings over the next 12 months.
My hope is that the core essentially stays together, that they are joined by extended stars like JDM and Sale to help lead the club for another 5 years, and that several advanced prospects shine in 2019 even as the lower levels start developing the next core. Can’t wish for more than that without a crystal ball. Just guessing here but Bogaerts, Porcello and Sale are likely the most probable candidates for potential extensions this off season. Mookie has said he wants to go year to year and test the market, I think they either ride JBJ to the end of his service time and let him walk or trade him, and Dombrowski has publicly stated they aren't going to increase JDM's deal. Sale will be on the wrong side of 30 and has had shoulder problems, but will want a minimum of 5 years and likely someone in the open market would give him 6 or even 7 years given his track record and elite status. The Sox have seen his medical reports and any MRIs (which are not always conclusive but provide more info than the market possesses), so it's up to them to decide to extend now or let him walk after next year - unless he wants to take an incentive-laden/discount deal, which seems highly improbable barring a major injury this year. My guess is 5-6 years at $25-$30M AAV depending on how the market views his shoulder. I think unless the medicals are very good, you let him walk and pursue Cole or acquire another younger, near-elite starter via trade; the latter won't be easy given the current state of the farm system. Porcello will also be on the wrong end of 30 but has proven durable so far. He has been an average of 3.1 fwar pitcher for the last 4 years but had that one extreme outlier 5.2 fwar year. Steamer has him at 2.6 fwar in his age 30 year. That makes him a #3-4 starter who has flashes of being a #2 from time to time, but will be getting older and so will likely decline to a #5 starter within the next 3 years or so. They'll have to decide if they would be willing to give him 4-5 years at something near his current $20M AAV. Depending on who is available. That seems a bit unlikely. Bogaerts will be hitting the market at age 27 as likely the best free agent SS available next year and has Scott Boras as an agent. He has averaged 4.3 fwar, which includes a 3.2 fwar season when he had an injured thumb for most of the year. By this year's 4.9 fwar, he was the 6th best SS in the league. If like many of us, the market believes he still has some room to improve, he could be a 5.0+ fwar player for at least the next 3-4 years, and could even move to 3rd base after age 31-32 or so and still maintain good value. He should get a very lucrative 6 year deal (or even 7 if someone's desperate). You could be looking at anywhere from $23M-$27M AVV, barring an injury and depending on the market's needs. Also, I believe Ockimey was left unprotected for this off-season, so you can chalk him and likely Chatham - who has not progressed to where anyone but his mother can see him as a 25 man MLB roster guy in 2020 - to minor league salaries or gone. Not sure they work on extensions with any of those other guys in the next 1-2 years. Sale has generally been healthy throughout his career, so I’m a little more sanguine than some about his shoulder issues. I think there’s a fair chance it was a minor one-time issue. Obviously, next year will reveal the truth. Looking at the Price, Grienke, and Kershaw deals, I think it’s pretty certain he gets 6-7/$180-$220M. If I’m the Sox, I’d consider that pretty strongly. I think Sale’s a significantly better pitcher than Cole (who I really like, btw), and I think it’ll stay that way for 3-4 years. If they could get him to extend now for 6/$170 tacked on, I’d do it. I know that’s risky, but it’s below-market for a true ace, and I think he provides excess value over the life of the deal. I would not bring Porcello back. The cost is too high for performance that could be replaced in large part for far less. I think they hope on Houck and Hernandez (and maybe Mata) stepping forward significantly and Shawaryn being maybe a 4/5, and take the risk. I’d *really* like it if they went after Jon Gray. His LOB was unsustainably high and he way underperformed his peripherals. The Rockies are odd and they might part with him for a package headlined by Chavis and another piece (plus some additional talent) if the Sox could swing a three-team and move Porcello. I’d really like to see them extend Bogaerts. I really don’t know what that would take. If he’s in the Heyward range (say, 7/$150), I’m totally ok with it. He’d be a 27-yo free agent, at an high-premium position, with some upside offensively. As I’ve said I think Lin can be a serviceable replacement given the $ savings (could be used, with a couple M more annually to, say, sign Cole, upgrading a rotation spot by that 2-3 WAR), but I think Bogey’s a good fit on this team and I think Cora will bring more out of him.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 1:21:23 GMT -5
An example of how to get Gray to replace Porcello might be: Porcello to Milwaukee. Milwaukee really needs starters, and Porcello is dependable, and probably gets better leaving the AL (East) and going to the NL Central. He’s exactly the workhorse they require. The Sox subsidize a large portion of his deal, since their payroll in 2019 isn’t an issue. They maximize what they get back in prospects. Hopefully, they can include enough cash to get Tristen Lutz (RF, blocked by Yelich) or Corey Ray (CF, blocked by Cain). Maybe they have to send a lesser prospect back. But it’s basically Porcello for an OF (Ray might be better given his power, CF position, and full year at AA, meaning he’s probably just a year away).
The Rockies have a major hole at 1b, and have Arenado possibly leaving. They also really need a RF, and Dahl has some questions in LF. They could play Chavis at 1b, and he’d give them some insurance at 3b if Arenado chose to leave. At the least he’d improve their bargaining position. They could also consider him at 2b over Hampson long-term. Or, they could put him in the OF mix. Ray would give them an option in the near future at any of the OF positions, maybe allowing them to slide Blackmon over, or to play RF over Tapia. The Rockies would probably also want another player or two, but other than Hernandez, Houck, or Casas, and maybe Mata, I wouldn’t hesitate to include anyone from the system. CO might like Shawaryn back, given his MLB proximity, and probably another arm, maybe Lakins (who Is like to keep but fits their attempts to build a better bullpen). Chavis and Ray represent a similar package to the one NY sent to Seattle (maybe marginally less, but not egregiously so) for Paxton, who had two years of control vs three but is viewed pretty widely as the better pitcher. I think getting Gray out of CO and into a better-run organization, with a better defense behind him, helps him take the step up to his potential as a TOR guy. And CO gets two players who fill significant holes, who both have bats that should play perfectly in Coors, all while giving them some future salary and roster flexibility and helping them address the impending Arenado FA. Send them an arm back to provide rotation depth, and maybe a lower-level guy to dream on, or a player like Travis whose LD approach is suited to Coors and who probably needs a change of scenery.
So, basically, Porcello and $ to Milwaukee for Ray, and then Ray, Chavis, and Shawaryn plus Travis or a low-level high-upside guy not named Antoni Flores for Jon Gray.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 28, 2018 7:26:48 GMT -5
I hope Dave uses Romero advise. I don’t know if Dave D. Wants to just defend the title and go thru the next phase because I don’t want to lose Romero through this. The next 2-3 years are going to be so important , I mean we might get lucky and have a solid core signed and young. Or We might have to really get creative and trade and keep a competitive team. If they offer Betts Trout money and he says no then he needs to be moved. I don’t want a QO pick for him. We will see.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 10:23:42 GMT -5
It's... it's as if those games he plays before reaching free agency aren't their own value.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2018 10:45:27 GMT -5
The Red Sox never have to trade Mookie. That's just a loser mentality. If he doesn't re-sign, the return on his trade isn't going to even come close to replacing him. I'd take the extra year watching him play on the Red Sox.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 10:50:44 GMT -5
Especially since they're a championship contender every year he's on the team by virtue of him being on the team.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 12:19:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be a World Series contender in 2020. So what they'd have to lose by trading him is a chance to win the World Series. The Red Sox never have to trade Mookie. That's just a loser mentality. If he doesn't re-sign, the return on his trade isn't going to even come close to replacing him. I'd take the extra year watching him play on the Red Sox. It's also a loser mentality to hang on to someone who has already left you. Playing someone until he reaches free agency in order to win baseball games is not a loser's mentality. Under this idea, the Red Sox absolutely should have traded Pedro Martinez before 2004 and Jacoby Ellsbury before 2013. They'd have won neither of those World Series, but think of the future prospects they could have... also traded before they reached free agency.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2018 12:23:28 GMT -5
The Red Sox never have to trade Mookie. That's just a loser mentality. If he doesn't re-sign, the return on his trade isn't going to even come close to replacing him. I'd take the extra year watching him play on the Red Sox. It's also a loser mentality to hang on to someone who has already left you. He didn't already leave if he's still on the team. What the hell reason would Mookie have to eliminate the Red Sox as a possible team he signs with if he supposedly wants the most money? And the one and only indication that Mookie does NOT want to be in Boston is the fact that he hasn't signed an extension yet, which is a ridiculous assumption.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 28, 2018 12:50:03 GMT -5
What happens if next year JBJ and Bogaerts both have a massive year on offense? In that case will there be more of a focus on keeping Bogaerts, as opposed to Betts, assuming Betts has another great season and so will definitely be seeking a massive contract -- more than the money Bogaerts will be expecting to get, I'm guessing. I still believe that Bogaerts is still tapping into his all-around potential and could really put it all together next year, and it wouldn't be a big surprise to me if JBJ finally has a breakout season next year, or at least put up hitting stats more along the lines of his 2016 season. I was kind of wandering if the Hyers' emphasis on swinging with more of an upper-cut for the Sox played havoc on JBJ's swing for the first half of the season. I would think all things considered being in Boston would be a plus, in that more players would want to come here and play for this franchise. You're right though, I'm sure there are some who wouldn't want to come to Boston but I doubt that is Mookie. We might not get a discount, but I'd be very surprised that if all else was equal he would not return.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 28, 2018 12:55:54 GMT -5
Lin is intriguing. He's starting to show glimpses of being a player that exceeds all expectations riding up through the system. He never really profiled as a MLB player, now it looks like he has a legit shot at at least being a utility guy. I still think he needs to show more next year, and if you can estimate injuries and the grind into the equation he should get some at bats at the MLB level.
If he could be a .700 OPS guy with better defense and speed on the bases I'd be ok with that. Sure, he won't replicate Xanders value, but when you start to consider the amount of guys needing contracts in the next couple years that profile is more comfortable with what else we have in the system that looks to be MLB ready in the next 1-2 years.
I know Lin has spent some time around the horn and in CF, does anyone have any actual insight into how he has taken playing those other positions?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2018 13:00:13 GMT -5
He didn't already leave if he's still on the team. What the hell reason would Mookie have to eliminate the Red Sox as a possible team he signs with if he supposedly wants the most money? And the one and only indication that Mookie does NOT want to be in Boston is the fact that he hasn't signed an extension yet, which is a ridiculous assumption. Some players don't like Boston. I'm not saying that he's one of them, but if Harper and Machado effectively set his market and they still can't work out a deal then there are reasons to try and replicate the Chapman/Yankees situation and not the Harper/Nationals situation. They have 2+ full years to find out. I'd rather have Mookie for his entire career than whatever prospects he brings back. I'd much rather take the comp pick than make it far more likely that he leaves. He just had a historically great season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2018 13:46:49 GMT -5
It's... it's as if those games he plays before reaching free agency aren't their own value. Look at Harper's situation. They could have traded him for a couple of big time prospects this year (whatever the Astros' trade was supposed to be). What would they have lost by trading him? A handful of ticket sales in August/September? A couple of games that were ultimately meaningless to their season? Harper is still going to the highest bidder and I don't think his feelings would play into his decision. The Nationals could have traded him and signed him back like the Chapman/Yankees situation. Or, they could have traded him and not signed him back. Either way, trading an MVP-level player in his walk year who has stated all year (or decade) that he's going to the highest bidder was really the only smart play in that situation. I want Mookie to retire with the Red Sox, but if he's hell bent on leaving or if he's just going to the team with the most money then I think the Red Sox should learn from the Nationals' situation and either be all-in or all-out. You'd get a lot more potential value in trading him than he could provide in a year, as magical as that year may turn out. The Harper thing is different because they offered him a massive deal he turned down and they weren't good in 2018. At the same time not trading him allows you an upper hand in resigning him. Look at the Lester mess, we likely resign him if we didn't trade him. Once you trade him the team loyalty and taking a little less goes out the window. I still think he ends up staying in Washington frankly. That teams window is now and they already offered what 200 plus million over 10 years. bleacherreport.com/articles/2805391-bryce-harper-rumors-nationals-ownership-refused-astros-trade-in-julyThe trade package seems a lot less than a couple of big time prospects, with the top guy being #8 in the Astros system. Nevermind you can't really compare the two because Harper wants to be paid on one past season and what he can become. Betts has been one of the best players year in and year out. I'd give the guy the big contract if that doesn't change.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2018 14:08:36 GMT -5
Just guessing here but Bogaerts, Porcello and Sale are likely the most probable candidates for potential extensions this off season. Mookie has said he wants to go year to year and test the market, I think they either ride JBJ to the end of his service time and let him walk or trade him, and Dombrowski has publicly stated they aren't going to increase JDM's deal. Sale will be on the wrong side of 30 and has had shoulder problems, but will want a minimum of 5 years and likely someone in the open market would give him 6 or even 7 years given his track record and elite status. The Sox have seen his medical reports and any MRIs (which are not always conclusive but provide more info than the market possesses), so it's up to them to decide to extend now or let him walk after next year - unless he wants to take an incentive-laden/discount deal, which seems highly improbable barring a major injury this year. My guess is 5-6 years at $25-$30M AAV depending on how the market views his shoulder. I think unless the medicals are very good, you let him walk and pursue Cole or acquire another younger, near-elite starter via trade; the latter won't be easy given the current state of the farm system. Porcello will also be on the wrong end of 30 but has proven durable so far. He has been an average of 3.1 fwar pitcher for the last 4 years but had that one extreme outlier 5.2 fwar year. Steamer has him at 2.6 fwar in his age 30 year. That makes him a #3-4 starter who has flashes of being a #2 from time to time, but will be getting older and so will likely decline to a #5 starter within the next 3 years or so. They'll have to decide if they would be willing to give him 4-5 years at something near his current $20M AAV. Depending on who is available. That seems a bit unlikely. Bogaerts will be hitting the market at age 27 as likely the best free agent SS available next year and has Scott Boras as an agent. He has averaged 4.3 fwar, which includes a 3.2 fwar season when he had an injured thumb for most of the year. By this year's 4.9 fwar, he was the 6th best SS in the league. If like many of us, the market believes he still has some room to improve, he could be a 5.0+ fwar player for at least the next 3-4 years, and could even move to 3rd base after age 31-32 or so and still maintain good value. He should get a very lucrative 6 year deal (or even 7 if someone's desperate). You could be looking at anywhere from $23M-$27M AVV, barring an injury and depending on the market's needs. Also, I believe Ockimey was left unprotected for this off-season, so you can chalk him and likely Chatham - who has not progressed to where anyone but his mother can see him as a 25 man MLB roster guy in 2020 - to minor league salaries or gone. Not sure they work on extensions with any of those other guys in the next 1-2 years. Sale has generally been healthy throughout his career, so I’m a little more sanguine than some about his shoulder issues. I think there’s a fair chance it was a minor one-time issue. Obviously, next year will reveal the truth. Looking at the Price, Grienke, and Kershaw deals, I think it’s pretty certain he gets 6-7/$180-$220M. If I’m the Sox, I’d consider that pretty strongly. I think Sale’s a significantly better pitcher than Cole (who I really like, btw), and I think it’ll stay that way for 3-4 years. If they could get him to extend now for 6/$170 tacked on, I’d do it. I know that’s risky, but it’s below-market for a true ace, and I think he provides excess value over the life of the deal. I would not bring Porcello back. The cost is too high for performance that could be replaced in large part for far less. I think they hope on Houck and Hernandez (and maybe Mata) stepping forward significantly and Shawaryn being maybe a 4/5, and take the risk. I’d *really* like it if they went after Jon Gray. His LOB was unsustainably high and he way underperformed his peripherals. The Rockies are odd and they might part with him for a package headlined by Chavis and another piece (plus some additional talent) if the Sox could swing a three-team and move Porcello. I’d really like to see them extend Bogaerts. I really don’t know what that would take. If he’s in the Heyward range (say, 7/$150), I’m totally ok with it. He’d be a 27-yo free agent, at an high-premium position, with some upside offensively. As I’ve said I think Lin can be a serviceable replacement given the $ savings (could be used, with a couple M more annually to, say, sign Cole, upgrading a rotation spot by that 2-3 WAR), but I think Bogey’s a good fit on this team and I think Cora will bring more out of him. Everyone keeps talking about Gray underperforming his Peripherals. I assume your talking about Fangraphs? He intrigues me for sure, but has some rather crazy trends. Like his career BABIP is way high year in and year out. He actually doesn't have home and road splits and gives up more hits on the road. Fangraphs will for sure rate him higher because strikeouts matter more to them than anything else. At the same time don't we have to worry about how much he gets hit in the National league? In the National league I just don't see how a 1.35 WHIP should equal a 4.08 FIP. I'd understand more if he had huge home and road splits, yet he doesn't. Don't get me wrong I'd love to target him as a guy that can improve. I'm just not sure he's an undervalued guy that is underperforming his peripherals. More like hoping a new team and pitching coach can finally unlock his full potential. www.denverpost.com/2018/07/04/rockies-2018-defense-outshining-2007-version/Just looking at the D, it seems they are rather good, so that doesn't seem to be the issue.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2018 16:46:07 GMT -5
One last thing, the kid the Nationals could have had for the next 6 years (albeit in their bullpen) has a scouting report like this: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50The guy is basically a carbon copy of Feltman, but better. Given the circumstances, I think they made a poor decision. You know how many of those guys end up as complete busts? Is he the next Lucas Giolito? I would not compare Harper to Mookie, given that there is no way in hell the Nationals would have made the trade in the offseason and would only consider it before deciding against it when they were almost out of the race. They definitely had playoff aspirations before the season started. What has been discussed in this thread is trading Mookie a year from now in the offseason, not at the trade deadline. So I'd concede that the Red Sox could possibly trade Mookie at the trade deadline if it looks like they have really slim chances of making the playoffs in 2020, which is highly unlikely. I still probably wouldn't do it because the only thing I'm sure about with the Red Sox after 2020 is that I want Mookie signed for 10+ years. If not, I'll have a hard time keeping my interest as high as it is. But there's no chance in hell I'd throw 2020 away before it started and give Red Sox fans nothing worth watching. This is the Red Sox, not the Rays.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 16:49:17 GMT -5
Yeah, if the Red Sox are like 56-63 on July 30, 2020 they should consider trading Mookie Betts.
They should not throw away a shot at the 2020 season beforehand because they're worried they won't re-sign him. They figure to be very good in 2020, largely because they'll have a 27-year-old Mookie Betts on the team.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 28, 2018 17:46:22 GMT -5
You know how many of those guys end up as complete busts? Is he the next Lucas Giolito? I would not compare Harper to Mookie, given that there is no way in hell the Nationals would have made the trade in the offseason and would only consider it before deciding against it when they were almost out of the race. They definitely had playoff aspirations before the season started. Yeah, I admit that trading Harper would have been unfathomable at the start of the season and it's probably a similar case with Betts next offseason. But look where the Nationals are now. They didn't really contend, they're very likely going to lose Harper, and they effectively get nothing of any real value in return. That dime-a-dozen-guy they could have had from the Astros was the 15th overall pick in 2017 and pitching in AA, sight upgrade over the 3rd round comp pick (or whatever it is) they're going to get instead. I do go back and forth on what the team should do with Betts. I don't think there's any real need for Betts to test the market given that he plays for the team with the highest payroll in the league, his arbitration win last year did a lot to set his market value, and Harper & Machado will help further solidify what market value is for him. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it doesn't feel like there's enough variability in this equation to justify waiting it out beyond March of 2019. That would lead me to believe that either the Sox don't want to sign him at market value or Betts doesn't want to stay in Boston. If that's the case, what do you do? I try to sign him until the minute he signs somewhere else. Mookie is the only player I would do this for because I'm irrational about it. I view it as letting Tom Brady walk when he was 30 because he'll be starting his decline soon.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 28, 2018 17:58:12 GMT -5
Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it doesn't feel like there's enough variability in this equation to justify waiting it out beyond March of 2019. That would lead me to believe that either the Sox don't want to sign him at market value or Betts doesn't want to stay in Boston. If that's the case, what do you do? I mean, other teams aren't allowed to talk to him until November 2020. So he has no idea how high his actual market is, and even less so until Harper and Machado sign. Even if he's 85% sure he wants to stay in Boston, there's no reason for him not to go to free agency and see what other teams have to say.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2018 18:34:49 GMT -5
The Harper thing is different because they offered him a massive deal he turned down and they weren't good in 2018. At the same time not trading him allows you an upper hand in resigning him. Look at the Lester mess, we likely resign him if we didn't trade him. Once you trade him the team loyalty and taking a little less goes out the window. I still think he ends up staying in Washington frankly. That teams window is now and they already offered what 200 plus million over 10 years. bleacherreport.com/articles/2805391-bryce-harper-rumors-nationals-ownership-refused-astros-trade-in-julyThe trade package seems a lot less than a couple of big time prospects, with the top guy being #8 in the Astros system. Nevermind you can't really compare the two because Harper wants to be paid on one past season and what he can become. Betts has been one of the best players year in and year out. I'd give the guy the big contract if that doesn't change. I've said "if" a few times and I think that's kind of important to what I said. If Mookie is 100% unsignable and if he's going to the highest bidder above all else (no feelings to be hurt or inside tracks to be had), then it might make sense to trade him if you get a good package back. Three conditions. Jrrusso made an excellent point that the Red Sox can't just let Mookie walk and all we get is a QO pick. That's where the Harper analogy comes into play. If the Red Sox aren't going to be the highest bidder for Mookie come hell or high water, then there's a ton of excess value over the course of the 2020 season which could be parlayed into mlb ready prospects. Because it's a full year, instead of a 2-month rental, and Mookie is a lot better than Harper I would expect there to be a better prospect package. FWIW, the Nationals don't have the inside track on Harper. They prematurely set the floor for his market and gave the rest of the world a very good idea of their max offer range. They're also no where near what Harper said he wanted so they had to know that this offer wasn't going to get the job done. Also, if nobody else comes to the party and the Nationals do end up in a position to resign him, then they can't back their offer down below the $300M that's already been presented. It's the exact opposite of what Dombrowski did with JDM last year and it's kind of a poor showing for people who do this for a living. One last thing, the kid the Nationals could have had for the next 6 years (albeit in their bullpen) has a scouting report like this: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50The guy is basically a carbon copy of Feltman, but better. Given the circumstances, I think they made a poor decision. Hmmm I don't really care what Harper think he's worth. I'm sure the Nationals would be very happy to have him back and I'd argue that offer sitting there scares off most teams and helps them. Don't even bother trying to get creative with a deal, because he already has 10 years 300 million on the table. I think that is going to be a very hard offer to beat. Do you really think the fact they didn't trade him is lost on him? The owner turning down that offer has to give him some points with Harper. He'd never take a Martinez deal so I'm not sure what your point was there. Martinez had no other teams that wanted him mainly because he's basically a DH only guy, that won't be the case for Harper.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 28, 2018 19:23:24 GMT -5
I love - LOVE - Mookie, but he will be 28 in 2020. I would not give him more than 8 years, unless he’d agree to team-only options for years 9 and 10 with, like, a $5M-10M buyout.
Harper and Machado give you two more sub-age 30 years, making 10 years for each of them acceptable if you really want them, though both would probably want full no-trades and opt-outs after 4 years so they could potentially re-enter the market in their age 30 years.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2018 20:30:53 GMT -5
I love - LOVE - Mookie, but he will be 28 in 2020. I would not give him more than 8 years, unless he’d agree to team-only options for years 9 and 10 with, like, a $5M-10M buyout. Harper and Machado give you two more sub-age 30 years, making 10 years for each of them acceptable if you really want them, though both would probably want full no-trades and opt-outs after 4 years so they could potentially re-enter the market in their age 30 years. Yeah, it’s really hard to sign a player during his peak years and not have to eat some of the declining years. That’s just the price teams have to pay to secure a player during his prime. In Mookie’s case, a ten-year contract at age 28 would get you about five super duper elite years (28-32), two or three good or very good years (33-35), and maybe a couple of the so-so decline years. But since Mookie’s peak is MVP-caliber, even Mookie at 80% of his former self (when he’s in his mid-30s, presumably) is still better than most of the players in the league. So I think I would be okay with a ten-year contract for Mookie after the 2020 season.
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