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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 11, 2018 9:30:10 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2018 13:43:44 GMT -5
This article, one of the best I've read on the topic, discusses in great depth how clubs do their own projections with much more information than the public projections such as Zips have available. There's a lot of pooling of "similar" pitchers and hitters to build up richer data sets. That's done using nearest-neighbor analysis. The idea is to create an array of key variables, and to find which players are most "like" each other by simply computing the distance of those variables, one from the other, for each two-player combo with those variable distances summed for that combo. After that's done for all relevant two-player groupings, you'll have a list of those distances. Choose some cutoff point at the bottom of the list where that total distance is small and you have what you presume are similar players. Again, this is something that was simply not possible without the availability of enormous amounts of cheap computing power and the invaluable datasets provided by the newest technologies such as KinaTrax and Blast. Not a problem these days. The brave new world of baseball projection. The Ringer really seems to be building up its baseball chops.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Jan 3, 2019 10:05:57 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jan 3, 2019 22:56:38 GMT -5
Considering projections tend to regress heavily to the mean, I’m pretty bullish on the Sox rotation. I think Rodriguez and Price in particular might be significantly better than projected. Price’s velocity was ticking up at the end of the year, and he obviously pitched well in the postseason. His CH probably needs more representation in his mix, the cutter less. But overall I like where he was at. Rodriguez keeps taking incremental steps towards being a TOR guy, he looked like a 2 for much of last year, and given his youth (he’s on the cusp of what is historically a pitcher’s prime, from essentially 26-29/30), and evolving stuff, I could absolutely see him taking a real step forward, health permitting, to 1a status (think 2017 Pomeranz with a few more innings and slightly better numbers across the board). I think they’re a little light on Barnes (he’s gonna become a beast if he can stay consistent), and maybe Eovaldi (his cutter makes him simply a different, better pitcher than the one on which those projections are based). But it’s encouraging to see Brewer projected so well. He could be a nice sleeper. They’ve got some trade value in that ‘pen with Hembree, Workman, and Thornburg/Smith depending on health/recovery.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2019 23:15:28 GMT -5
I don't have the attention span to try and read the numbers listed like that. They really couldn't get a web editor to whip up some tables?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 7:42:57 GMT -5
I have no clue where to put this but it's interesting:
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Jan 4, 2019 8:25:23 GMT -5
The difference between the two is crazy. This shows Mookie's outcomes (whiffs per swing) in the zones. Pitchers have some success working him low, but wow does he have bat control within the strike zone. Despite the success, pitchers didn't want to work him high very often.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2019 9:38:40 GMT -5
Eh, Mookie Betts isn't really a fair comparison for Javier Baez. Baez is obviously a free swinger, but he's dangerous on pitches outside the zone like few others. Imagine if Alfonso Soriano was actually a competent middle infielder. He'll probably bounce between his 2017 and 2018 production for a number of years, but I can't really see being unhappy with the 2017 production. And he has three years before free agency.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2019 9:51:35 GMT -5
I don't like hitters like Baez at all. A bad BABIP season (even for him) makes him a league average hitter at best because of too many strikeouts and way too few walks. That's also usually someone who doesn't perform in the postseason because elite pitchers can get him to chase even worse than normal.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 4, 2019 13:27:18 GMT -5
I don't like hitters like Baez at all. A bad BABIP season (even for him) makes him a league average hitter at best because of too many strikeouts and way too few walks. That's also usually someone who doesn't perform in the postseason because elite pitchers can get him to chase even worse than normal. Agree. To paraphrase an 80s slogan - "I WANT MY OBP!"
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 4, 2019 13:51:05 GMT -5
I don't have the attention span to try and read the numbers listed like that. They really couldn't get a web editor to whip up some tables? They probably didn't do that because the data is incommensurate - lots of different stuff and a bunch of redundancy. It's important enough that I'm going to do just that, and create some summary indeces also.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 14:17:20 GMT -5
I don't like hitters like Baez at all. A bad BABIP season (even for him) makes him a league average hitter at best because of too many strikeouts and way too few walks. That's also usually someone who doesn't perform in the postseason because elite pitchers can get him to chase even worse than normal. Agree. To paraphrase an 80s slogan - "I WANT MY OBP!" LOL, 80's ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 4, 2019 17:31:25 GMT -5
I don't like hitters like Baez at all. A bad BABIP season (even for him) makes him a league average hitter at best because of too many strikeouts and way too few walks. That's also usually someone who doesn't perform in the postseason because elite pitchers can get him to chase even worse than normal. Agree. To paraphrase an 80s slogan - "I WANT MY OBP!" Where's designatedforassignment when we need him?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 4, 2019 17:38:54 GMT -5
Agree. To paraphrase an 80s slogan - "I WANT MY OBP!" LOL, 80's ? ... I take it you've been out of the states for a while...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 20:40:05 GMT -5
I think it's an age thing. Love Money for Nothing (and the chicks are free) but as soon as I saw the words "I want my !!!", I remembered that commercial from back in the days when there were fewer commercials and they played over and over and over again. Hell, I still periodically have the Ipana Toothpaste song run through my head.
Haha, don't get me started on "It's a Small World" from anyone who raised kids anywhere near Disneyland.
Haha and that particular Dire Straights link is blocked in The Philippines. I'd have to use an IP changer to play it. For whatever reason, I used to have to do that to listen to Ed Jensen on the Greenville Drive radio but not anymore. Heaven forbid the commies might know the Red Sox lower A lineup.
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