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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 2, 2019 14:29:59 GMT -5
X !!!! Nobody hits high beautiful bombs that look as effortless as Xander.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 2, 2019 14:36:37 GMT -5
Brewer...seems like a nibbler, not hitting the plate much yet. Still early in the spring though of course His stuff really moves and that's one issue. He does not have command of it, at least not at this stage of spring training.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 2, 2019 14:54:44 GMT -5
Brewer is big, and young - this site's thumbnail on him mentions fringe control as something that holds him back.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 2, 2019 16:07:28 GMT -5
Xander's bomb was Manny-esque.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 2, 2019 18:00:38 GMT -5
It’s never going to get old seeing the mayor of NY trolling New Yorkers.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 2, 2019 22:38:15 GMT -5
With the way he gets on base, and plus baserunning, yeah...if he’s who he was in the second half (and as you mention there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic), he’s an outside threat to take the 3 spot. If he’s finally figured it out and puts up an 0.850 OPS (again, I’m optimistic...his performance/results coincide nicely with his swing adjustments), JBJ is going to be a helluvan addition to the top of the order. I’m very bullish...he got results last year that passed the eyeball test (more LD/fewer GB in the second half, consistent hard contact); his results going oppo or CF are outstanding...I think he’s got another step to take this year, where the consistency shows up. 3HR and 13 2b in just 70 PA when hitting the ball to left. If there’s anybody (and as jimed said, he has pretty big power for a little guy) who could benefit from looking more like JDM approach-wise, Jackie’s it. He’ll pepper the monster, I think. He also hits the ball hard enough that he should get more than his share of Fenway “cheapies” on lazy flies. He’d have to take more than another step to get to where you want him... Look at his exit velo and hard-hit %ile. He was 18th in all of MLB for avg exit velo. He also has solid plate discipline, and he’s going to get even more walks if he becomes a more dangerous hitter. His xwOBA is right around 75th %ile. Post-ASB his OPS was 0.827. His main issue has been hitting down on the ball out-of-plane. It’s why he gets tied up inside and rolls over too much. He had a barrel% last year over 10, which is very good. It’s been rising throughout his career. He’s also steadily increased his LD%, and last year, especially after the swing change, his GB rate dropped. He has one step to take, and that’s staying in-plane and increasing his launch angle. He started doing that in the second half last year. If he’s in-plane he’s going to have more leeway in his timing, the whiffs should drop a little, and the issues he’s had with covering up one hole but creating another (like the FB inside issue) will decrease. The disconnect between his avgEV/hard-hit% and xwOBA isn’t because he’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk enough, it’s because his contact, while excellent, has too often been on the ground. And that’s borne out by the similarity of xwOBA and xSLG %iles. Given his quality of contact, his xSLG should be higher, but it’s relatively low due to the xSLG of hard GB (a disproportionate fraction of his contact) being so low (something like 0.150 if I recall correctly). He strikes out a fair amount, but not so much so that it should inordinately suppress his expected production. He also struggles with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but the in-plane approach, again, should reduce whiffs by increasing the coincident time of the bat and ball over the plate. JDM’s specifically referred to that as a benefit he’s noticed...the ability to make in-swing adjustments to spin. I really don’t think it’s all that much of a leap for JBJ.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 2, 2019 22:38:45 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Mar 3, 2019 6:53:15 GMT -5
He’d have to take more than another step to get to where you want him... Look at his exit velo and hard-hit %ile. He was 18th in all of MLB for avg exit velo. He also has solid plate discipline, and he’s going to get even more walks if he becomes a more dangerous hitter. His xwOBA is right around 75th %ile. Post-ASB his OPS was 0.827. His main issue has been hitting down on the ball out-of-plane. It’s why he gets tied up inside and rolls over too much. He had a barrel% last year over 10, which is very good. It’s been rising throughout his career. He’s also steadily increased his LD%, and last year, especially after the swing change, his GB rate dropped. He has one step to take, and that’s staying in-plane and increasing his launch angle. He started doing that in the second half last year. If he’s in-plane he’s going to have more leeway in his timing, the whiffs should drop a little, and the issues he’s had with covering up one hole but creating another (like the FB inside issue) will decrease. The disconnect between his avgEV/hard-hit% and xwOBA isn’t because he’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk enough, it’s because his contact, while excellent, has too often been on the ground. And that’s borne out by the similarity of xwOBA and xSLG %iles. Given his quality of contact, his xSLG should be higher, but it’s relatively low due to the xSLG of hard GB (a disproportionate fraction of his contact) being so low (something like 0.150 if I recall correctly). He strikes out a fair amount, but not so much so that it should inordinately suppress his expected production. He also struggles with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but the in-plane approach, again, should reduce whiffs by increasing the coincident time of the bat and ball over the plate. JDM’s specifically referred to that as a benefit he’s noticed...the ability to make in-swing adjustments to spin. I really don’t think it’s all that much of a leap for JBJ. Ted Williams first talked about this decades ago, when he talked about the optimum swing being a slight uppercut. He didn't use terms like squaring up the ball and keeping in-plane, but that's what he meant. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 3, 2019 10:25:48 GMT -5
Today - should be a good watch - Darwinzon H starting, Mitch playing his first game, got the Benny Betts 1-2, X man clean up, Chavis 9th
Andrew Benintendi (L) LF Mookie Betts (R) RF Mitch Moreland (L) DH Xander Bogaerts (R) SS Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF Eduardo Nunez (R) 3B Brock Holt (L) 2B Sandy Leon (S) C Michael Chavis (R) 1B
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 3, 2019 13:12:36 GMT -5
Darwinzon is a big boy. Nice fast 1st inning.
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Post by wildsox on Mar 3, 2019 13:30:11 GMT -5
First time seeing Darwinzon he reminds me alot of E-Rod
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 3, 2019 14:44:10 GMT -5
Chavis' swing is so good...looks like natural power to all fields, and doesn't have to swing wildly to get to it.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2019 16:05:48 GMT -5
First time seeing Darwinzon he reminds me alot of E-Rod That curveball is nasty.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 3, 2019 16:15:51 GMT -5
First time seeing Darwinzon he reminds me alot of E-Rod That curveball is nasty. Agreed. First impressions: his fastball seems to have natural cut, and can be overpowering, especially against LHB. But the command looked shaky. He does seem more willing to attack against LHB, so maybe it’s partially a confidence thing?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 3, 2019 20:35:15 GMT -5
Agreed. First impressions: his fastball seems to have natural cut, and can be overpowering, especially against LHB. But the command looked shaky. He does seem more willing to attack against LHB, so maybe it’s partially a confidence thing? Either that or it's spring training.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:01:07 GMT -5
Look at his exit velo and hard-hit %ile. He was 18th in all of MLB for avg exit velo. He also has solid plate discipline, and he’s going to get even more walks if he becomes a more dangerous hitter. His xwOBA is right around 75th %ile. Post-ASB his OPS was 0.827. His main issue has been hitting down on the ball out-of-plane. It’s why he gets tied up inside and rolls over too much. He had a barrel% last year over 10, which is very good. It’s been rising throughout his career. He’s also steadily increased his LD%, and last year, especially after the swing change, his GB rate dropped. He has one step to take, and that’s staying in-plane and increasing his launch angle. He started doing that in the second half last year. If he’s in-plane he’s going to have more leeway in his timing, the whiffs should drop a little, and the issues he’s had with covering up one hole but creating another (like the FB inside issue) will decrease. The disconnect between his avgEV/hard-hit% and xwOBA isn’t because he’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk enough, it’s because his contact, while excellent, has too often been on the ground. And that’s borne out by the similarity of xwOBA and xSLG %iles. Given his quality of contact, his xSLG should be higher, but it’s relatively low due to the xSLG of hard GB (a disproportionate fraction of his contact) being so low (something like 0.150 if I recall correctly). He strikes out a fair amount, but not so much so that it should inordinately suppress his expected production. He also struggles with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but the in-plane approach, again, should reduce whiffs by increasing the coincident time of the bat and ball over the plate. JDM’s specifically referred to that as a benefit he’s noticed...the ability to make in-swing adjustments to spin. I really don’t think it’s all that much of a leap for JBJ. Ted Williams first talked about this decades ago, when he talked about the optimum swing being a slight uppercut. He didn't use terms like squaring up the ball and keeping in-plane, but that's what he meant. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s what’s so crazy to me...Ted describes basically these exact issues in “The Science of Hitting,” and it still amazes me that it’s essentially taken 30+ years for the baseball world to catch up. And really, it’s the way for JBJ to beat the shift: increasing his avg launch angle (by an across-the-board contact means, since obviously hitting a bunch more pop-ups would increase his avg angle but not be a good thing) from around 10-12% into even the 15-18% range and staying in-plane to reduce his GB rate...it nullifies the value of the shift against him because LD and FB (especially L-to-LF in Fenway) are going over INF heads and often, off or over the wall. BTW, I **really** wish announcers, when discussing this stuff, would more often give Williams his due. The guy was not only incredibly skilled hand-eye-wise, but his *thinking* re: hitting (and specifically, *production* in the context of contact) was truly genius. Kind of like Hedy Lamarr and her ideas on frequency-hopping...many decades before their times. True genius is arguably reflected in how long it takes the rest of the world to catch up to ones’ ideas.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:03:50 GMT -5
Agreed. First impressions: his fastball seems to have natural cut, and can be overpowering, especially against LHB. But the command looked shaky. He does seem more willing to attack against LHB, so maybe it’s partially a confidence thing? Either that or it's spring training. Lol, true...but I think orion may have a point as well. These aren’t exactly new issues for him command-wise. Probably a big part of why he was available/low-cost to the Sox. Edit: in fairness, the “stuff” wasn’t always what it was either, but the high effort’s always affected his command and colored the opinions of evaluators. It’s still incredible now, tho.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 3, 2019 22:51:27 GMT -5
Either that or it's spring training. Lol, true...but I think orion may have a point as well. These aren’t exactly new issues for him command-wise. Probably a big part of why he was available/low-cost to the Sox. Edit: in fairness, the “stuff” wasn’t always what it was either, but the high effort’s always affected his command and colored the opinions of evaluators. It’s still incredible now, tho. True but he's also only 22 and has experienced changes in his stuff as well as his body as he matured. Not to mention the jitters he must have felt in front of the mukkymucks. (lol, correction for mukkymucks is schmucks).
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 23:39:33 GMT -5
Lol, true...but I think orion may have a point as well. These aren’t exactly new issues for him command-wise. Probably a big part of why he was available/low-cost to the Sox. Edit: in fairness, the “stuff” wasn’t always what it was either, but the high effort’s always affected his command and colored the opinions of evaluators. It’s still incredible now, tho. True but he's also only 22 and has experienced changes in his stuff as well as his body as he matured. Not to mention the jitters he must have felt in front of the mukkymucks. (lol, correction for mukkymucks is schmucks). Yeah, don’t get me wrong...The Evolution is coming. His spin rates are just incredible. His velocity borders on elite. If they could harness those moving parts and increase his fluidity, a big boy like that should be able to be a frontline starter going deep in games. I’m optimistic about the command for the reasons you say, but it wouldn’t be fair to expect/predict a jump from 40 to 60. If he *can* get to a 50/50 control/command, he might just be a strong 3/low-end 2 on stuff alone. Beyond that...well, wecan definitely dream. That stufff...just wow. If he really CAN put it together, he’d be one of those guys who’s must-watch. Totally unrelated, but it got me thinking about Chavis. He *really* looks like a hitter. His bat speed seems to border plus-plus to me. I know he never had a shot as a SS, but man, if he could figure out 2b, what a coup that would be. He’d have a well-above-avg arm there, it’s just the footwork part (lol, “just”). But, like Hernandez finding his command/control, Chavis finding a defensive home where he can be solidly average...I think his bat will play anywhere. When he’s going all-fields, he’s just fantastic.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 4, 2019 0:19:31 GMT -5
Chavis has that slight elevation off the plane that was mentioned above. He's had that since he came out of high school. The ball always seemed to jump off his bat and that doesn't appear to have changed. I know there's some skepticism but he's a hitter, I believe. He's had to take a few steps toward maturity, what with hiding the injury and the suspension. It can't be easy for a teenager coming into a professional organization, but he made it a little harder on himself. With a few years in the system under his belt, I'll trust that stuff is behind him now. But the bat plays, it has since he signed.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Mar 4, 2019 7:14:00 GMT -5
Ted Williams first talked about this decades ago, when he talked about the optimum swing being a slight uppercut. He didn't use terms like squaring up the ball and keeping in-plane, but that's what he meant. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s what’s so crazy to me...Ted describes basically these exact issues in “The Science of Hitting,” and it still amazes me that it’s essentially taken 30+ years for the baseball world to catch up. And really, it’s the way for JBJ to beat the shift: increasing his avg launch angle (by an across-the-board contact means, since obviously hitting a bunch more pop-ups would increase his avg angle but not be a good thing) from around 10-12% into even the 15-18% range and staying in-plane to reduce his GB rate...it nullifies the value of the shift against him because LD and FB (especially L-to-LF in Fenway) are going over INF heads and often, off or over the wall. BTW, I **really** wish announcers, when discussing this stuff, would more often give Williams his due. The guy was not only incredibly skilled hand-eye-wise, but his *thinking* re: hitting (and specifically, *production* in the context of contact) was truly genius. Kind of like Hedy Lamarr and her ideas on frequency-hopping...many decades before their times. True genius is arguably reflected in how long it takes the rest of the world to catch up to ones’ ideas. A legitimate definition of "genius" is "the ability to envision or create something for the first time."
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 4, 2019 9:03:39 GMT -5
So we are still waiting to see Pedey (as far as field/bat) and Pearce - but lots of arms to roll out this spring - Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, Price, Barnes, Brazier and Hembree. We are only 24 days until opening day - 22 spring training games for the wings to get stretched.
I've not anticipated a season so much in a long time....
Today we get to see ERod
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 4, 2019 13:10:12 GMT -5
Tebow in the lineup for the Mets today for giggles.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 4, 2019 13:19:58 GMT -5
ERod just struck out Nimmo with that new slider and he walked off the mound smiling.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 4, 2019 13:42:24 GMT -5
A bomb from Gorkys, nice hit by Devers, and yes, ERod had a nice first.
Red Sox spring training is easing the pain of the dysfunctional Celtics team!
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