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Post by soxinsf on Aug 29, 2022 16:16:07 GMT -5
Everyone has always said "relaaaax, the homers will come," and maybe that's still true. But if he's more of a doubles machine than a home run threat that gives him a substantially lower ceiling. But I'm just looking at the stat line here. I'd be curious to hear more informed explanations for the lack of home run power.
Especially in that Worcester park, which is supposed to be a launching pad. The overriding question is whether Casas can hit MLB pitching at nearly the rate that he hits AAA pitching. If he hits over .300 with Slg pct north of .500, then he is our 1B going forward regardless of whether he hits 24 or 42 HR. The righty lefty split is also a big deal. Yes, we all want him up. It is not unreasonable, however, to let him come to ST as the presumptive 1B, and give him six weeks to break in rather than measuring him by September.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,232
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Post by cdj on Aug 29, 2022 16:32:01 GMT -5
How concerned are we really though?
Me personally? Not at all
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Post by seamus on Aug 29, 2022 16:42:10 GMT -5
The question for me is whether you shop either Hosmer or Dalbec this offseason. I think I'd be fine with Dalbec as a bench guy (especially if he can play SS in a pinch, haha!) if they can get a good return for Hosmer, and I think it'd be okay to ride with Hosmer as a DH/1B if somebody wants to bet on Dalbec's upside, but it's hard to see how both fit on the same MLB roster. Do you need to keep them both so Casas has competition and to provide depth, or should one go this winter?
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 29, 2022 17:02:15 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors.
HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K%
Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K%
Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 29, 2022 17:06:07 GMT -5
The question for me is whether you shop either Hosmer or Dalbec this offseason. I think I'd be fine with Dalbec as a bench guy (especially if he can play SS in a pinch, haha!) if they can get a good return for Hosmer, and I think it'd be okay to ride with Hosmer as a DH/1B if somebody wants to bet on Dalbec's upside, but it's hard to see how both fit on the same MLB roster. Do you need to keep them both so Casas has competition and to provide depth, or should one go this winter? I like Hosmer but he is expensive. Assuming that JD is not back and the Sox do not find a new DH, then a mix of Casas, Hosmer and Dalbec at 1B/DH is not the worst idea ever. But it is not my favorite idea. Dalbec has reached his sell by date at this point. He only gets kept as a last resort. Finding someone to take Hosmer might be difficult without paying down his contract. Casas will be our 1B short of his being a bigger bust than Bobby or Franchy.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 29, 2022 17:11:09 GMT -5
The question for me is whether you shop either Hosmer or Dalbec this offseason. I think I'd be fine with Dalbec as a bench guy (especially if he can play SS in a pinch, haha!) if they can get a good return for Hosmer, and I think it'd be okay to ride with Hosmer as a DH/1B if somebody wants to bet on Dalbec's upside, but it's hard to see how both fit on the same MLB roster. Do you need to keep them both so Casas has competition and to provide depth, or should one go this winter? I like Hosmer but he is expensive. Assuming that JD is not back and the Sox do not find a new DH, then a mix of Casas, Hosmer and Dalbec at 1B/DH is not the worst idea ever. But it is not my favorite idea. Dalbec has reached his sell by date at this point. He only gets kept as a last resort. Finding someone to take Hosmer might be difficult without paying down his contract. Casas will be our 1B short of his being a bigger bust than Bobby or Franchy. Lol, you may want to check your Hosmer facts
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Post by Guidas on Aug 29, 2022 17:17:29 GMT -5
The question for me is whether you shop either Hosmer or Dalbec this offseason. I think I'd be fine with Dalbec as a bench guy (especially if he can play SS in a pinch, haha!) if they can get a good return for Hosmer, and I think it'd be okay to ride with Hosmer as a DH/1B if somebody wants to bet on Dalbec's upside, but it's hard to see how both fit on the same MLB roster. Do you need to keep them both so Casas has competition and to provide depth, or should one go this winter? I like Hosmer but he is expensive. Assuming that JD is not back and the Sox do not find a new DH, then a mix of Casas, Hosmer and Dalbec at 1B/DH is not the worst idea ever. But it is not my favorite idea. Dalbec has reached his sell by date at this point. He only gets kept as a last resort. Finding someone to take Hosmer might be difficult without paying down his contract. Casas will be our 1B short of his being a bigger bust than Bobby or Franchy. Or traded in a package for an ace with at least three years of sub-market cost control.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 29, 2022 17:22:46 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors. HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K% Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K% Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player. Depending on which HoF player you are referencing, it's possible he had a little "help" when he got to the Show.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 29, 2022 19:48:35 GMT -5
Did I say that Hosmer was expensive? Oh well.
He is.
To the Padres.
Makes him a more valuable commodity.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2022 20:06:20 GMT -5
Everyone has always said "relaaaax, the homers will come," and maybe that's still true. But if he's more of a doubles machine than a home run threat that gives him a substantially lower ceiling.
But I'm just looking at the stat line here. I'd be curious to hear more informed explanations for the lack of home run power.
Phenomenal, we're onto complaining about a career that hasn't even gotten going yet. Good grieft. I'm a pollyanna about like every Red Sox player. I can't *ask a question* about Casas' power? I'm sincerely just curious to get an informed opinion.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2022 21:08:49 GMT -5
The nice thing about having Hosmer at league minimum for the next two years is it gives us a “replacement level Casas,”* ie a guy whose job Casas has to steal in order to start, which IMO takes a lot of pressure off. He doesn’t have to come up and be “the guy.” We can take our time with him
*RLC for short
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Post by tyler3 on Aug 29, 2022 21:09:53 GMT -5
No I think it’s at least valid. Devils advocate here. Franchy has the same raw power as Casas. Even Duran has put up numbers in the wind tunnel at AAA. Casas has never put up highs power numbers or a high average…right? I mean I get that he will go on a three game roll where he hits stuff a stadium and a half but then there are a couple weeks of no homers and apparently not that many hits (see average). And this is over and over again. Casas will take a walk? Is that it? I just want to know what makes this guy such a slam dunk when guys with his raw power (Franchy) and guys with better numbers (granted 2021 Duran), have so far kind of failed at the major league level.
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 29, 2022 22:36:56 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors. HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K% Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K% Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player. Depending on which HoF player you are referencing, it's possible he had a little "help" when he got to the Show. It's Votto. One of the few players I would be shocked if he got popped for them.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Aug 30, 2022 6:41:38 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors. HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K% Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K% Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player. Votto at 23 also had 89 PA in mlb in which he hit 321 .360 .548 .907.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,425
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Post by radiohix on Aug 30, 2022 15:34:24 GMT -5
Some of you guys here are overthinking this thing lmao! He’s a 22 yo walking at a 16% clip, K’ing at 21% with an Isolated Power of over .200! He’s hitting line drives rockets in AAA, just last week he has hit 11 balls for over 95 mph and 4 of them were above 105 mph. He’s the AAA leader in Exit velo while never facing a pitcher younger than him. At his age Aaron Judge was hitting 17 HRs in almost double his PAs….in A ball (with a lower IsoP). Relax.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 28, 2022 14:59:43 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 28, 2022 17:42:21 GMT -5
Really impressive. The size lets him make those stretches, but it seems to affect his mobility not at all. He's quick for a big guy.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 28, 2022 22:51:15 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors. HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K% Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K% Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player. Votto at 23 also had 89 PA in mlb in which he hit 321 .360 .548 .907. What do 89 PA tell you. Is it a hot streak? 89 PA is SSS. Cassas is at 70 PA .179/.343/.446 /.789 117 OPS+ and plays good D. To early to infer anything at the MLB level. His MilB record indicates he deserves a real shot and likely at least a few hundred AB next year before making any rash decisions. Don't forget he missed alot of time this year with injuries. He was the Dalbec back-up plan but plan B failed due to the injuries.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,232
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Post by cdj on Sept 29, 2022 0:31:58 GMT -5
Kinda crazy the difference a plus defensive 1B makes vs below average ones A lotta those guys are safe with our previous 1B If they end up with a SS who can pick it (whether it’s 2022 Xander defense or another sure hand at SS) that defense has major potential
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,942
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 19:53:02 GMT -5
I was kind of flabbergasted by Steamers projection of 1.9 WAR and a .451 SLG. So I thought I would try to find the best comp possible. So I went back to 1920 and got a list of: 1B Rookie (too much trouble to limit it to debut seasons!)
Age 22
Minimum 80 PA (Casas had 95). My original intent was to look at guys with about a 120 wRC+, but I was immediately seized by how few guys had Casas's combo of K and BB rate, let alone in combo with his Iso. And that's why I didn't notice until now the list of guys with a wRC+ of 116 to 124: Kent Hrbek Lou Gehrig
Jack Hiatt (80 PA on the nose) Rafael Palmeiro
Casas Mike Marshall Hank Greenberg Will Clark Anthony Rizzo There was in fact one guy who matched Casas really closely in those three attributes. I was curious -- did they also have a slow start, which is not at all uncommon for even the best prospects ? They did.
I ended up with this comp: --- Debut Season --- Slow Start Nxt 46 PA ROS Height Weight K rate W Rate Iso PA wRC+ wRC+ wRC+ Dude X 6'5" 240 .183 .183 .199 32 90 223 182 Casas 6'4" 252 .242 .200 .208 44 24 203 n/a
Note that the UBB (excluding pitchers) rate in X's debut season was identical to that of 2022 (.080 and .079 respectively). The K rate was much lower, but it's clear that the continual rise in K rate until the end of the steroid era was driven by the steady increase in the number of hitters who were willing to trade less contact for more power a la Ruth. That trend reached its max in this century, and the continued rise in K rate since is completely explained by better pitching.
Given that 97% of the rise in K rate from 2008 to 2022 can be explained by a) rising 4-seamer velocity and b) declining FB% (5-seam and sinker), I think it's completely legit to adjust Casas's K rate back to 2008. When you do -- and I crap you not -- it's .185. So the overall numbers show a similarity of style that's kind of eerie. And yes, some of the really close correspondences may have drifted apart some had Casas played longer, but ...
There are 77 guys that fit these criteria and Casas and X were 1-2 in BB rate, and the only guy who remotely resembles either is Casey Kotchman, who had a rough debut at age 21 (falling 7 PA short of losing rookie status), and then had a 125 wRC+ and .206 Iso. But his K and BB rates were .126 and .105; he fanned less than any of the guys on the wRC+ close comp list above except Gehrig and Palmeiro. There was always skepticism about Kotchman for the very reason that he did not go deep in counts like most guys with his Iso, and it proved to be warranted.
Casas is clearly not as good as Dude X. He struggled much worse, and 47% longer. As a result, at the point in the season where Casas had gotten his wRC+ up to 120 and gone home, Dude X was at 163.
But once Casas got it going, I think his next 46 PA were even better than Dude X's. Every PA of that great end stretch was against the AL East, and the median starting pitcher he faced, by ERA, was Gerrit Cole (3.50; MLB average was 4.05). And that 3.62 average starer's ERA (it was 3.39 before game 162) was put up against AL East hitters nearly half the time. Hitters whose numbers underrate them because they faced the AL East pitchers .... When you adjust for this correctly, it's a much bigger factor than you'd think.
And of course the the gap in final numbers would have closed considerably had Casas gotten a chance to keep playing.
So who is Dude X? I'm omitting another thing in common that might make it too obvious, if it isn't already.
Meanwhile, a reminder of the way Casas's season broke down (the good stuff starting on September 22, an auspicious date for fans of a certain popular book).
PA K rate W rate BABIP ISO xwOBA wOBA wRC+ 49 .273 .136 .042 .158 .255 .208 24 46 .216 .255 .375 .263 .386 .461 203
What would his Steamer projection be if the season had gone on for another week? Or of they had bothered to adjust for quality of pitching faced?
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Post by cmax on Jan 13, 2023 20:53:26 GMT -5
Frank Thomas?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 22:37:53 GMT -5
Yes indeed.
We don't know just how good Casas will be, but the similarity in approach to Thomas is exciting. It's pretty much the apotheosis of the Ted Williams approach to hitting, where getting a good pitch to hit is everything.
I thin the following is very telling. Throughout his ml career there were some people who were concerned that he wasn't hitting as many homers as expected, given the kind of hitter he was. Those who knew him better said not to worry. My take now is that he concluded that learning to hit a baseball as best as possible was not entirely compatible with hitting a lot of homers, and not to worry about it.
What happened? In that ice-cold start he would have ranked in the 91st percentile for home runs per contact. The rest of the way, his HR/C would have ranked 6th in MLB (out of 277 hitters with 300+ PA), behind Judge, Trout, Buxton, Schwarber, and Stanton. Overall he would have ranked in the 97th percentile for HR/C.
The Steamer projection essentially regresses his 5 actual HR to 3.
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Post by runner on Jan 13, 2023 22:44:51 GMT -5
There might be a link in some of the numbers between Thomas and Casas. Whatever crazy numbers they might be.
I wouldn't even want to say it to jinx Casas and even put that out there. Frank Thomas was a once in a lifetime freak. I think of Bo Jackson when I think of Frank Thomas (minus the athleticism when it came to Thomas). Just the size and pure power/hitting ability. Casas has the size, but get back to me when he has Frank Thomas (in game consistent, not raw) light tower power.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jan 14, 2023 0:18:45 GMT -5
I was kind of flabbergasted by Steamers projection of 1.9 WAR and a .451 SLG. So I thought I would try to find the best comp possible. So I went back to 1920 and got a list of: 1B Rookie (too much trouble to limit it to debut seasons!)
Age 22
Minimum 80 PA (Casas had 95). My original intent was to look at guys with about a 120 wRC+, but I was immediately seized by how few guys had Casas's combo of K and BB rate, let alone in combo with his Iso. And that's why I didn't notice until now the list of guys with a wRC+ of 116 to 124: Kent Hrbek Lou Gehrig
Jack Hiatt (80 PA on the nose) Rafael Palmeiro
Casas Mike Marshall Hank Greenberg Will Clark Anthony Rizzo There was in fact one guy who matched Casas really closely in those three attributes. I was curious -- did they also have a slow start, which is not at all uncommon for even the best prospects ? They did.
I ended up with this comp: --- Debut Season --- Slow Start Nxt 46 PA ROS Height Weight K rate W Rate Iso PA wRC+ wRC+ wRC+ Dude X 6'5" 240 .183 .183 .199 32 90 223 182 Casas 6'4" 252 .242 .200 .208 44 24 203 n/a
Note that the UBB (excluding pitchers) rate in X's debut season was identical to that of 2022 (.080 and .079 respectively). The K rate was much lower, but it's clear that the continual rise in K rate until the end of the steroid era was driven by the steady increase in the number of hitters who were willing to trade less contact for more power a la Ruth. That trend reached its max in this century, and the continued rise in K rate since is completely explained by better pitching.
Given that 97% of the rise in K rate from 2008 to 2022 can be explained by a) rising 4-seamer velocity and b) declining FB% (5-seam and sinker), I think it's completely legit to adjust Casas's K rate back to 2008. When you do -- and I crap you not -- it's .185. So the overall numbers show a similarity of style that's kind of eerie. And yes, some of the really close correspondences may have drifted apart some had Casas played longer, but ...
There are 77 guys that fit these criteria and Casas and X were 1-2 in BB rate, and the only guy who remotely resembles either is Casey Kotchman, who had a rough debut at age 21 (falling 7 PA short of losing rookie status), and then had a 125 wRC+ and .206 Iso. But his K and BB rates were .126 and .105; he fanned less than any of the guys on the wRC+ close comp list above except Gehrig and Palmeiro. There was always skepticism about Kotchman for the very reason that he did not go deep in counts like most guys with his Iso, and it proved to be warranted.
Casas is clearly not as good as Dude X. He struggled much worse, and 47% longer. As a result, at the point in the season where Casas had gotten his wRC+ up to 120 and gone home, Dude X was at 163.
But once Casas got it going, I think his next 46 PA were even better than Dude X's. Every PA of that great end stretch was against the AL East, and the median starting pitcher he faced, by ERA, was Gerrit Cole (3.50; MLB average was 4.05). And that 3.62 average starer's ERA (it was 3.39 before game 162) was put up against AL East hitters nearly half the time. Hitters whose numbers underrate them because they faced the AL East pitchers .... When you adjust for this correctly, it's a much bigger factor than you'd think.
And of course the the gap in final numbers would have closed considerably had Casas gotten a chance to keep playing.
So who is Dude X? I'm omitting another thing in common that might make it too obvious, if it isn't already.
Meanwhile, a reminder of the way Casas's season broke down (the good stuff starting on September 22, an auspicious date for fans of a certain popular book).
PA K rate W rate BABIP ISO xwOBA wOBA wRC+ 49 .273 .136 .042 .158 .255 .208 24 46 .216 .255 .375 .263 .386 .461 203
What would his Steamer projection be if the season had gone on for another week? Or of they had bothered to adjust for quality of pitching faced?
I need to know what you do for work
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 14, 2023 6:31:41 GMT -5
RE: Rookie of the year. The odds on who will win the award were released at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the pair were among the top six.
Baltimore Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson is the favorite at +350, and Twins shortstop Royce Lewis was behind him at +600 odds, though he might move to the outfield after Minnesota’s reported deal with Carlos Correa on Tuesday.
Casas comes in with the fourth-shortest odds to win MLB Rookie of the Year at +900. This is tied with New York Yankees prospect Anthony Volpe. Yoshida follows after with +1000 odds, which are tied with Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe and Orioles pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez.
A $100 bet at these odds on Casas and Yoshida would pay out $1,000 and $1,100, respectively.nesn.com/bets/2023/01/could-triston-casas-red-sox-newcomer-win-mlb-rookie-of-the-year/
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