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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:27:54 GMT -5
He throws hard and has a lot of movement. Hopefully his command will improve with time. One bad outing doesn't make him a bust but he has options so he's likely to go down when Holt and Johnson return. For me, he's a higher probability of being a dominant reliever than Hembree or Workman. It's not the one bad outing. It's the walks. I cannot stand watching relievers come in and not throw strikes. It shrinks their margin of error for making a mistake. And with Brewer it's hard for him to come and not walk anybody. I honestly think with more innings he'd wind up with at least 5 BB/9 IP, which is a tough ratio to survive with. I'm afraid we're going to see that with Hernandez when he comes up. I think there's a lot of thought that he can be a second half impact guy but I think we're going to see a lot of walks with him, too unfortunately. The walks drive me crazy. That's one of the reasons why I loved Koji so much. He'd pour in strike after strike. I get that, and I feel you on the free passes. But it’s a mistake to dismiss a pitcher’s value out of hand simply due to a high walk rate. It might e infuriating to watch, but in the end it’s all about baserunners. And a walk has less value than a single, depending on circumstance, but essentially never more. In the case of some of these guys, you have to separate emotion (frustration with walks/nibbling) from result. Barnes has a high walk rate last year, but outside of a very short run of awful in July or August, he was *dominant*. If a pitcher is walking 4.5/9 but only giving up 5.5 H/9, that’s livable. In fact, it’s good. I think Brewer has the underlying talent to approach a WHIP of 1.1-1.15, maybe better. He might never be elite, but I think he can be very good. Barnes certainly has become outstanding and he struggled mightily at first. Be patient 🤣🤣🤣
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:47:59 GMT -5
Brewer has been 95.4 with the 4FB and 93.3 with the cutter. He has a .438 BABIP. A 29% K rate (14.29/9 IP) and an atrocious 19.4% BB rate (9.53/9). Idk how much of the high BABIP is a command issue leading to hard contact (Barnes has big problems early in his career with that, prob poorly located 4FB not high enough in the zone/out of it). Brewer’s also got an outstanding 13.3% SwStr rate. His contact rate is 64% overall, which is fantastic. And his Z-Sw is low, meaning he’s fooling guys. It’s just his O-Sw is only 32% (OK)...because he’s not over the plate enough to get enough chases. But his O-Con% and Z-Con% are only 57.7% and 73.7%...both being quite good. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s having a little trouble right now because it’s early in the season, he’s fighting for a spot, and he’s probably a little spooked from bad BABIP luck. Prob nervous about challenging hitters. But underneath the high BB rate is some really encouraging stuff. I have similar thoughts on Thornburg (who’s really more a command than control issue I think). Hell, almost the entire pitching staff has sucked, beyond Barnes and his -0.04 FIP. I say keep riding the horses they’ve got for a bit and see if they turn it around. If they’re going 2018 Nationals, Brewer and Thornburg aren’t going to be the main issue. I’d be more concerned with Sale, Eovaldi, Porcello right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 14, 2019 8:48:13 GMT -5
Yeah I'm glad that the Sox got the very best years out of Rick Porcello, but I won't shed a tear once he departs. He's dependable, until he isn't and he can't stay effective. This year is looking like 2015 more and more with him. Not even the crappy Orioles can fix him. I didn’t think he’d be back anyway, but this pretty much seals it barring some miraculous turnaround, and it might portend his departure in-season depending on how Shawaryn-Hernandez-Mata-Houck look. The rotation is really, really awful right now. They look like a *bad* team. I can’t see it continuing with the talent they have...but...2018 Nationals... I hope the Sox don't offer Porcello the QO this off-season if he has another one of those 5 ERA years. The chances of him accepting it is almost 99 percent, especially given the market now for 30+ year olds and how much he wants to be in Boston. There's not much value with Porcello making 19+ million a year without offering money in a deal, which the Sox can't afford, unless they trade the Holy grale in Mookie Betts.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:58:47 GMT -5
I didn’t think he’d be back anyway, but this pretty much seals it barring some miraculous turnaround, and it might portend his departure in-season depending on how Shawaryn-Hernandez-Mata-Houck look. The rotation is really, really awful right now. They look like a *bad* team. I can’t see it continuing with the talent they have...but...2018 Nationals... I hope the Sox don't offer Porcello the QO this off-season if he has another one of those 5 ERA years. The chances of him accepting it is almost 99 percent, especially given the market now for 30+ year olds and how much he wants to be in Boston. There's not much value with Porcello making 19+ million a year without offering money in a deal, which the Sox can't afford, unless they trade the Holy grale in Mookie Betts. Yeah, I don’t think Porcello gets a QO barring a stunning turnaround. Keuchel is a good cautionary example...Porcello probably takes the QO after seeing a better pitcher get zilch at the same age. I think ideally, Darwinzon or Mata shoves in a huge way and the Sox move Porcello at the deadline for anything they can get, to a contender hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. That said, I’m legitimately shocked that Kimbrel and Keuchel are still out there. Given the crazily-team-friendly extensions signed recently, and the less-than-ridiculous big FA deals, I think there’s a seismic shift occurring towards value that’s going to dramatically change the face of the game before the next CBA.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2019 9:15:53 GMT -5
Reliever xwOBA adjusted for balls hit to center and opponent quality (which includes some early season noise, I think).
Last year's number follows in parentheses.
.168 (.334) Velazquez (includes his start)
.183 (.276) Barnes .218 (.303) Workman .280 (.299) Hembree .301 (----) Brewer .322 (.308) Walden .343 (.254) Brasier .393 (.350) Thornburg
The last two guys were .384, .386 this year without the adjustments.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 14, 2019 9:39:42 GMT -5
I hope the Sox don't offer Porcello the QO this off-season if he has another one of those 5 ERA years. The chances of him accepting it is almost 99 percent, especially given the market now for 30+ year olds and how much he wants to be in Boston. There's not much value with Porcello making 19+ million a year without offering money in a deal, which the Sox can't afford, unless they trade the Holy grale in Mookie Betts. Yeah, I don’t think Porcello gets a QO barring a stunning turnaround. Keuchel is a good cautionary example...Porcello probably takes the QO after seeing a better pitcher get zilch at the same age. I think ideally, Darwinzon or Mata shoves in a huge way and the Sox move Porcello at the deadline for anything they can get, to a contender hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Man if the Sox aren't contenders by the trade deadline, then that would be worst case scenario. Like really bad. Can't say I haven't been thinking about it either. Dave Dombrowski also wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't put Mookie Betts on the table for a desperate team in search of a superstar that has plenty of room for a extension with him. The White Sox or Braves comes to mind when it comes to that. One and a half years of Mookie could still fetch a huge package. I hope it doesn't come to that, but the Sox have to keep all options open. In addition to putting Mookie Betts on the table, you would be seeing if anyone wanted JBJ, Porcello (like you mentioned), Pearce, Moreland, and Holt (with Lin promoted soon thereafter).
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2019 10:14:42 GMT -5
He throws hard and has a lot of movement. Hopefully his command will improve with time. One bad outing doesn't make him a bust but he has options so he's likely to go down when Holt and Johnson return. For me, he's a higher probability of being a dominant reliever than Hembree or Workman. It's not the one bad outing. It's the walks. I cannot stand watching relievers come in and not throw strikes. It shrinks their margin of error for making a mistake. And with Brewer it's hard for him to come and not walk anybody. I honestly think with more innings he'd wind up with at least 5 BB/9 IP, which is a tough ratio to survive with. I'm afraid we're going to see that with Hernandez when he comes up. I think there's a lot of thought that he can be a second half impact guy but I think we're going to see a lot of walks with him, too unfortunately. The walks drive me crazy. That's one of the reasons why I loved Koji so much. He'd pour in strike after strike. It's really not that tough for a relief pitcher to survive with walks if batters cannot hit anything. His stuff looks impossible to hit.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 14, 2019 12:39:53 GMT -5
Fugly.
This guy’s best pitch is his change. Sit on it or lay off it but decide please.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 14, 2019 12:40:26 GMT -5
uggggh. this offense man; first and third no outs and nothing.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2019 12:56:05 GMT -5
Hope Benni didn't break his foot. This is bad.
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Post by station13 on Apr 14, 2019 13:24:32 GMT -5
FFS, Pedroia is done
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Post by jimmydugan on Apr 14, 2019 13:25:58 GMT -5
Are my eyes deceiving me or did Nunez just take a walk??
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 14, 2019 13:43:26 GMT -5
Just tuned in now that The Masters is over. Happy to see the Orioles haven’t scored.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 14, 2019 13:43:56 GMT -5
that half inning flew by...our offense is zzzzzz
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2019 13:48:08 GMT -5
X-rays were negative for Benni, but I'm sure he'll at least be out for a few games.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 14, 2019 14:08:28 GMT -5
I get blacked out of Sox games when they play Baltimore - sounds like Nunez is still a buzz kill black hole in the line up. Listened to him kill the first rally in the car coming home from DC - and just now from home. Hurry back, Brock (though Cora still seems to love him Nunez in the line up)
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 14, 2019 14:09:25 GMT -5
I get blacked out of Sox games when they play Baltimore - sounds like Nunez is still a buzz kill black hole in the line up. same as it ever was
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 14, 2019 14:10:07 GMT -5
I hate Nunez
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Post by Coreno on Apr 14, 2019 14:10:43 GMT -5
I really hope Nunez is not on this roster at the end of the year
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 14, 2019 14:11:34 GMT -5
Seriously get f**king lost Nunez swing at a 56 ft curveball that was never a strike, than miss an easy throw that would have gotten the lead off hitter at second seriously get lost
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 14, 2019 14:12:49 GMT -5
has anything been written or said about what's up with Mookie? Seems like one of the deeper slumps of his career - never seems to bring any discussion on radio or TV or beat writers.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 14, 2019 14:13:41 GMT -5
So Hector Velazquez is no longer the staff ace?
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 14, 2019 14:14:11 GMT -5
has anything been written or said about what's up with Mookie? Seems like one of the deeper slumps of his career - never seems to bring any discussion on radio or TV or beat writers. He looks broken
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 14, 2019 14:15:58 GMT -5
Edrod amd Price with god outings. with Pocello stinker in the middle. Hoping Sale takes a step forward. I am confident Eovaldi will be fine
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 14, 2019 14:18:12 GMT -5
has anything been written or said about what's up with Mookie? Seems like one of the deeper slumps of his career - never seems to bring any discussion on radio or TV or beat writers. He looks broken In a perfect world, I would love to see Mookie have a career worst year and we win the World Series again anyway. Maybe we can get him to bite on a cheaper contract
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