4/16 Gameday Thread: Don’t Falter, Do The Evolution

What’s everyone’s opinion on Sox prospect with highest ceiling in the minors?

Thanks nice read!

Just a small correction, Lowell's season begins one week earlier than listed up top, on June 14th. So this year there are only 2 NYPL games after the GCL season ends so we will miss the late season call-ups there this year.

When Walden reports both likely go back down.

I tend to agree with RSchamps’s evals, but I’ll include a bit of my own twist.

In terms of pure ceiling, I think Hernandez has inarguably the best “stuff,” and he’s relatively new to pitching, so he may have a little more projectability to his command. But his delivery is pretty high-effort, and he struggles to repeat it, resulting in the control/command issues. His FB velo borders on elite for a LHer and we know it plays up out of the bullpen. His spin rates on both FB and curve are truly outstanding and his natural FB movement is explosive. So I would say he has the highest “outlier” ceiling of a true ace (like, 2-5% outcome), but making that leap in control/command isn’t very likely at all, and he’s almost certain not to make that. A more “reasonable” ceiling is a #3 starter or elite closer. And while we don’t know how close Groome is going to approach his HS stuff after TJ, he’s shown roughly average to slightly above velo, and had a 70 CB (though it’s backed up some). So, like Champs, I’d say his reasonable ceiling is similar to Darwinzon’s, but with maybe a little better shot at reaching it. I’d put Mata and Houck pretty closely behind those two, though I think Mata’s GB tendencies and improved command this year, combined with his youth, make him a slightly better bet. I can see Mata being a solid 2 at the 2-5% outcome but probably closer to a 3/4 as a “reasonable” ceiling. Houck, roughly the same, but maybe a little more likely to end up in the ‘pen. And special mention for Durbin Feltman, whose ultimate ceiling is limited by being an obligate reliever, although he’s flashed two 60-70 grade pitches, and seems like a good bet to become a late-inning weapon.

Among hitters, Dalbec could be an outstanding player, along the lines of Greg Nettles...but his whiff tendencies/hit tool deficiencies make that a very long shot. For pure “outlier” ceiling, with his defense, he might be the best of the positional lot. But his risk is really high. So I’d say one of Casas, Antoni Flores, or Jarren Duran. Casas has elite power potential and the makings of an average hit tool, and a plus arm...but is defensively limited by size/range. I’d probably put Chavis in that class as well...he’s shown 70 raw power (two HR over 460’ so far this year), and he’s got basically a present 45 hit tool, so I could see 50 or even 55...and his risk is low because he’s in AAA. But he’s got no defensive home. Flores is the one I’m most excited for, because he’s kind of got a Benintendi-like skillset (with not quite the hit tool). He does basically everything solidly, including play SS. With no real weakness, and the potential for a 55-60 hit tool and maybe average power...at a premium position he plays solidly...a substantial gain in any one area makes him a dreamable player. Duran comes from a program at Long Beach that stresses contact, GB-leg it out, small-ball baseball. He’s a pretty big guy (6’2”, 200 lbs), and he’s shown a better-than-expected approach and a bit better than expected power. I’ve seen several mentions of him by the fg guys and others as a player most people missed in their draft evals. His hit tool ceiling keeps getting adjusted up bit by bit, and right now he seems like a potential 60, though still with below-average power but some gap ability and good oppo ability (which portends less power but a high BABIP). If he can elevate more and learn to selectively pull for power, I could see a Scooter Gennett-type hitter but with near-elite speed and solid CF defense. He’s got an ideal approach for Fenway, too...again, especially if he started elevating the ball. He’s got a high floor given his speed/athleticism (solid 4th OF), and his reasonable ceiling is creeping up into 2nd or even 1st-division starting OF.

Shaky 5th for Darwinzon but we have to remember that he was held in spring as a reliever then got snowed out. This was only his second start.

Reading Bottom of the 5th
Josh Stephen flies out to center fielder Tate Matheny.
Luke Williams singles on a line drive to left fielder Joseph Monge.
Mickey Moniak pops out to shortstop C. J. Chatham.
Adam Haseley doubles (3) on a fly ball to left fielder Joseph Monge. Luke Williams scores.
Austin Listi walks.
Mound Visit.
Ali Castillo walks. Adam Haseley to 3rd. Austin Listi to 2nd.
Passed ball by catcher Jhon Nunez. Adam Haseley scores. Austin Listi to 3rd. Ali Castillo to 2nd.
Grenny Cumana pops out to first baseman Bobby Dalbec in foul territory.


Read more: www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2019_04_16_prtaax_reaaax_1&t=g_log&sid=milb#ixzz5lJJ30WNG

Jenrry Mejia lit up in game 2.

Kutter Crawford with a nice line tonight: 5.2 INN 4H 0ER 2BB 8K

He's up to an impressive 20 Ks in 13.2 innings this year.

Talk to the scouts, he was generally a highly regarded draftee. Might work out, might not (he's only 20) but it wasn't a draft day mistake.

Mookie was a fringy type. That's what happens when you draft high school players, it's pretty much hit or miss but if you hit on one Mookie that more than makes up for a lot of misses.

I don't disagree about the nepotism picks though unless they want to sign for way under slot which makes the money saved the benefit (and that is often the case).

Eh, Brannen is definitely looking like a big miss. That one is kind of hard to argue even at this point.


Rei and Matheny, on the other hand, don't fall into this category at all. They signed for slot in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. They've progressed about as well as good expect guys taken in those positions to progress. There were some decent players taken in those rounds of the 2015 draft (Harrison Bader, Jordan Hicks, Brandon Lowe in the 3rd, Paul DeJong in the 4th (and before you marvel at what a great draft that was for StL, note they whiffed on their 2 first rounders and their second rounder)), but otherwise very little of note to compare those picks to. Not every pick can be a future MLB regular - it just doesn't work like that.

I disagree with the nepotism point too. Do you have any evidence to back that up? The other "relatives" in the org are guys like Nick Lovullo and Jordan Wren who got nothing bonuses and are org guys.