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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2019 14:28:14 GMT -5
Let's stay with the math - going into today, Fangraphs has our playoff chances up to 6.4%, 538 at 4%, Baseball Reference at 3.3% and ESPN at 6.4% Baseball Reference as our Pythagorean at 73-58 (record is 70-61). MFY Pyth is at 78-53 (their record is 84-47). We are a bit worse than our stats indicate, and they are much better. Go figure. Baseball Prospectus has the Sox 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees by Second-Order Winning Pct., based on raw stats.
I have yet to fire up my True Standings (properly adjusted for schedule) this year, but I think I'll do it tomorrow afternoon. I now have three sources for Raw Stats Win % -- BP's, FanGraph's, and my own based on wOBA. It might be fun to first compare the three and see how they line up.
Meanwhile, the Rays Win Probability is down to 3.0%in the middle of the 7th. Unfortunately, the Indians have gone from 31.6% to 62.5% in their half of the inning.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2019 14:39:25 GMT -5
Tampa's bullpen must be completely gassed given how they've left Beeks in so long. 104 pitches, 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. Sounds like he's taking one for the team.
I really don't get the opener thing when you end up with a follower who basically throws as long as a starter would. It's not like the other team can't figure out who the follower is so the entire bench gets used up in the 3rd inning.
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Post by patford on Aug 25, 2019 15:23:05 GMT -5
Tampa's bullpen must be completely gassed given how they've left Beeks in so long. 104 pitches, 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. Sounds like he's taking one for the team. I really don't get the opener thing when you end up with a follower who basically throws as long as a starter would. It's not like the other team can't figure out who the follower is so the entire bench gets used up in the 3rd inning. The opener is frankly dumb. At least in the long haul. I still think TB is due to collapse. They have nothing.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,083
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Post by cdj on Aug 25, 2019 16:27:19 GMT -5
Tampa's bullpen must be completely gassed given how they've left Beeks in so long. 104 pitches, 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. Sounds like he's taking one for the team. I really don't get the opener thing when you end up with a follower who basically throws as long as a starter would. It's not like the other team can't figure out who the follower is so the entire bench gets used up in the 3rd inning. I think a lot of it has to be do with reducing the amount of times the top of the order sees a given pitcher
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2019 17:29:33 GMT -5
Tampa's bullpen must be completely gassed given how they've left Beeks in so long. 104 pitches, 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. Sounds like he's taking one for the team. I really don't get the opener thing when you end up with a follower who basically throws as long as a starter would. It's not like the other team can't figure out who the follower is so the entire bench gets used up in the 3rd inning. I think a lot of it has to be do with reducing the amount of times the top of the order sees a given pitcher Well the opener went through 9 batters so the follower didn't avoid the top of the order.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2019 23:16:12 GMT -5
Really getting to the nitty gritty now after today's dead cat bounce fail of a game in San Diego.
70-62...132 down, 30 to go. Still alive. 17 road games, 13 home.
To get to 90 wins, 20-10 needed. To get to 93 wins, 23-7 (now that's a challenge).
Colorado up next. Our season of consistent inconsistency continues.
Playoff chances updated - 4% (538), 6.2% (ESPN and Fangraphs), 4.3% (baseball reference)
Key players recent performance
Devers 4-22, 0 HR, 2 RBI last 5 games Mookie .286-0-2 last 7 games Xander .235-0-2 last 7 games JDM .353-3-8 last 7 games Benny .200-0-0 last 7 games JBJ .231-2-3 last 7 games CVaz .294-0-2 last 7 games Moreland 13-33 - 1-7 last 10 games Holt 9-24 2-4 last 10 games
Of the above, only JD, CVaz, Mitch and Brock are carrying their weight with the bats.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 27, 2019 23:19:26 GMT -5
OK - a win is a win esp when Tampa loses.
71-62, 133 down, 29 to go. Still alive. 16 road and 13 home games. 19-10 gets us 90 wins, 22-7 gets us 93.
Need to get to where a sweep of Tampa on Sept 20-23 would leapfrog us over them (I can dream, can't I?)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 23:34:08 GMT -5
OK - a win is a win esp when Tampa loses. 71-62, 133 down, 29 to go. Still alive. 16 road and 13 home games. 19-10 gets us 90 wins, 22-7 gets us 93. Need to get to where a sweep of Tampa on Sept 20-23 would leapfrog us over them (I can dream, can't I?) Only problem is the Sox remain 6 back with Oakland winning.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 29, 2019 2:08:45 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 29, 2019 2:15:28 GMT -5
The Sox have played 2 more games than the Athletics. The Athletics have 2 games in hand. Tampa and Boston have played the same amount of games this season to this point. Tampa will have played one more game by tomorrow.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 29, 2019 9:10:28 GMT -5
I have a bizarre and completely untrustworthy feeling they actually make it. Idk why, but...this season has just been SO weird. When you look at yesterday’s box (and ignore Rodriguez’s subpar night), the first thing that stands out to me is the four very good relievers they had going. Walden is probably the worst of the lot, and he’s still quite good. Taylor has been a revelation. Only Barnes can kill Barnes...but when on, he is utterly electric. Getting him proper rest turns him into an elite performer. And Workman has been nearly unhittable, and so rarely gives up HR that he’s earned that sub-2 ERA. Add in Darwinzon, and perhaps a commanding Brasier...suddenly (and it’s been borne out the past few weeks results-wise) the bullpen is a strength. The offense is alive (watching Bogey and Raffy duke it out for bragging rights is the best part of a not-yet-lost season), and really, all that’s left is the season’s Achilles heel...the rotation. And I’m starting to believe they can just pull it together enough to win some 8-5 and 6-4 games...the classic barely-qualifying “quality start,” some 6IP, 3ER performances where you say with a smile “it wasn’t pretty but he kept us in the game...”
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 29, 2019 9:56:39 GMT -5
Optimism is making an appearance!
72-62 - 10 games over .500 (we are beating the teams we should be), 134 played, 28 remain.
18-10 gets us 90 wins, 21-7 gets us 93. Biggies remaining are 3 - Minnesota (home), 4 MFY (home), 4 at Tampa (toughest schedule?)
Cleveland - biggest challenges are 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Tampa, 3 Minnesota (home), 3 at DC Tampa - biggest challenges are 1 at Houston, 3 Cleveland (home), 4 Boston (home), 2 MFY (home) Oakland - biggest challenges are 3 at New York, 4 at Houston - easiest schedule
Playoff odds - up to 9.8% (ESPN and Fangraphs), Baseball reference 3.1%, 538 7% (pretty big spread, really).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2019 10:10:39 GMT -5
Optimism is making an appearance! 72-62 - 10 games over .500 (we are beating the teams we should be), 134 played, 28 remain. 18-10 gets us 90 wins, 21-7 gets us 93. Biggies remaining are 3 - Minnesota (home), 4 MFY (home), 4 at Tampa (toughest schedule?) Cleveland - biggest challenges are 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Tampa, 3 Minnesota (home), 3 at DC Tampa - biggest challenges are 1 at Houston, 3 Cleveland (home), 4 Boston (home), 2 MFY (home) Oakland - biggest challenges are 3 at New York, 4 at Houston - easiest schedule Playoff odds - up to 9.8% (ESPN and Fangraphs), Baseball reference 3.1%, 538 7% (pretty big spread, really). They've handled the bad teams for the most part. But when they play teams with winning records it doesn't go so well. They're 72-62 now, so maybe they go 18-10 playing mostly bad teams, although it's not hard to see them tripping over NY or TB again. I can see one of Oakland or Tampa (more likely Tampa at this point without their starting rotation) slipping. But I think they either fall short or well if they make it, it's probably a cameo appearance. Hard to see them going far with Sale not pitching, Porcello pitching the way he has and Eovaldi being a complete mess. Most likely they fall short. It's not hard to see them blowing out their opponent and then losing a 3-2 heartbreaker the next day. Kind of how the season has gone. You wanna believe, you think it might actually be happening, and then...nothing.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2019 11:46:06 GMT -5
We've now played 32% of the remaining schedule and closed 53% of the gap to the Rays, 41% of the gap to the Indians, but 23% of the gap to the A's.
Both the Rays and Indians have gone 6-8 while we've gone 10-3.
All three teams are playing day games today-- Indians and A's at 1, Tampa at 2.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 29, 2019 12:18:48 GMT -5
We've now played 32% of the remaining schedule and closed 53% of the gap to the Rays, 41% of the gap to the Indians, but 23% of the gap to the A's. Both the Rays and Indians have gone 6-8 while we've gone 10-3. All three teams are playing day games today-- Indians and A's at 1, Tampa at 2.
Problem though is, what goes up, must come down. Eventually the Rays are going to put together more wins and the Red Sox are going to lose a series or two. Idk if there's enough gas to avoid a mini-slump between now and the end of September.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2019 15:15:12 GMT -5
We've now played 32% of the remaining schedule and closed 53% of the gap to the Rays, 41% of the gap to the Indians, but 23% of the gap to the A's.
Both the Rays and Indians have gone 6-8 while we've gone 10-3.
All three teams are playing day games today-- Indians and A's at 1, Tampa at 2.
Indians beat the Royals. A's had a 7-2 lead but are clinging to an 8-7 lead entering the ninth.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2019 15:51:14 GMT -5
Does he get a free burger or something? The Rays' Colin Poche walked 5 guys in the bottom of the 5th and the Rays now trail the Astros 5-4.
A's got an insurance run the top of the 9th on a foul SF to 3B, and then needed it as the Royals scored with 2 outs in the bottom.
And while I'm typing this, Rays tied it up (D'Arnaud has 4 of the 5 RBI), and while I was preparingto type that, Altuve went yard and the Rays are now down 6-5. This game has been tied up at 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5. I wonder what the record is?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 29, 2019 17:18:43 GMT -5
So the Rays, Indians, and Athletics won today. Everytime this team gets hope, they get kicked squared in the nuts soon afterwards.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 30, 2019 7:43:36 GMT -5
The Sox have played 2 more games than the Athletics. The Athletics have 2 games in hand. Tampa and Boston have played the same amount of games this season to this point. Tampa will have played one more game by tomorrow. When you need someone to catch up to you in the loss column, it's a good thing when they have more games remaining than you.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 31, 2019 5:10:34 GMT -5
We still have a shot - its just not against the A's. We need to be rooting for Tampa to sweep the Indians, and then for us to sweep Tampa. We're not catching Oakland - they're too good, have the easiest schedule, and their team is the healthiest out of TB/CLE. TB and Cleveland have both been bitten by the injury bug and have at least closer difficulty schedules to the Sox, so I feel like we have a shot to overtake them if we keep playing well.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2019 23:44:06 GMT -5
Going to do this before the game is over - 73-63, 10 games over .500, 136 played, only 26 remain.
17-9 gets us 90 wins, 20-6 gets us to 93 wins. We still have 11 games against Minnesota, MFY, and Tampa.
Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa are simply not cooperating and losing enough.
538 has us down to a 3% chance at the playoffs - predicts us to end up with 87 wins (As and Indians 94, Tampa 93 wins predicted)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 1, 2019 16:26:54 GMT -5
The Sox have played 2 more games than the Athletics. The Athletics have 2 games in hand. Tampa and Boston have played the same amount of games this season to this point. Tampa will have played one more game by tomorrow. When you need someone to catch up to you in the loss column, it's a good thing when they have more games remaining than you. I don't think you want them to have games in hand. If they win both they gain a game on you.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2019 19:08:04 GMT -5
By going 12-4 since August 12, we've played 39% of the remaining schedule and have gained 55% of the required ground on the Indians, 35% on the Rays, and 31% on the A's.
If we can keep playing .750 ball against the Twins and Yankees, I like our chances.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 19:49:59 GMT -5
Great-
Wonderful-
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 1, 2019 21:37:53 GMT -5
Nitty gritty - 74-63, 137 down, 25 to go. 16-9 gets us 90 wins, 19-6 gets us 93 wins....
3 Toronto, 2 Philadelphia, 3 San fran, 3 Texas, 3 Baltimore - the "easy ones" - 14 of them. 3 Minnesota, 4 MFY, 4 Tampa - the tough ones - 11 of them.
10-4 against the easy, 6-5 against the tough gets us 90 wins - 11-3 against the easy and 8-3 against the touch gets us 93. Not going to be easy. And we will need lots of help.
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