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4/29-5/1 Red Sox vs Athletics Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2019 21:35:47 GMT -5
That was Porcello's best game since his 1 hitter against the Yankees last year. And it's all because Sandy Leon was behind the plate - I'm just kidding.
The good thing about outings like that is that he puts them in position to win tomorrow because the pen isn't beat up. It's too bad Barnes had to get up and that Thornburg couldn't go one inning without an adventure.
I guess we stick with Thornburg through June and I'm being liberal there, but if he's showing nothing by then, then DFA him.
I feel by then we should have a good reading on if he's getting his stuff back and the results are finally starting to follow or if he's truly a lost cause (which my gut tells me is the case).
Wish we could have seen Milwaukee Thornburg, because he was a good pitcher.
In a way this reminds me a bit of when the Sox dealt burgeoning HR hitter Phil Plantier (who I liked) for Jose Melendez, who was supposed to be this rubber armed reliever with upside. Melendez got hurt and hardly ever pitched and wasn't effective when he did while Plantier smacked 30 homers for the Padres one year, before he fizzled out.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 30, 2019 22:35:26 GMT -5
I guess we stick with Thornburg through June and I'm being liberal there, but if he's showing nothing by then, then DFA him. I'm not even trying to start a argument or nothing, but I can't figure out who besides Thornburg gets cut next when Nunez comes back. -You can't cut Josh Smith because he's a long reliever. You're going to need a long reliever if you are carrying Hector Velazquez on a starting rotation. If you're going to cut or send down Josh Smith, you need to replace him with a Erasmo Ramirez or Brian Johnson or Shawaryn or name your other long reliever out of a bullpen. -You can't send down Lin because Eduardo Nunez becomes your backup short stop (YIKES!!) - You can't send down Chavis or Walden (for obvious reasons) -You can't cut Pearce because you think he has a role here and you just spent 6 million for him to serve a role here. The only move would be to send down Brewer. Alex Cora however keeps going back to Brewer and trusts him more in higher leverage. It looks like the Thornburg era is coming to a end soon whenever Nunez is ready.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2019 22:39:27 GMT -5
I guess we stick with Thornburg through June and I'm being liberal there, but if he's showing nothing by then, then DFA him. I'm not even trying to start a argument or nothing, but I can't figure out who besides Thornburg gets cut next when Nunez comes back. -You can't cut Josh Smith because he's a long reliever. You're going to need a long reliever if you are carrying Hector Velazquez on a starting rotation. If you're going to cut or send down Josh Smith, you need to replace him with a Erasmo Ramirez or Brian Johnson or Shawaryn or name your other long reliever out of a bullpen. -You can't send down Lin because Eduardo Nunez becomes your backup short stop (YIKES!!) - You can't send down Chavis or Walden (for obvious reasons. -You can't cut Pearce because you think he has a role here and you just spent 6 million for him to serve a role here. The only move would be to send down Brewer. Alex Cora however keeps going back to Brewer and trusts him more in higher leverage. It looks like the Thornburg era is coming to a end soon whenever Nunez is ready. If the Thornburg era comes to an end, so be it, but all things being equal I'd rather they simply send down Brewer. His control is still very spotty. I think it makes sense to put Pearce on the IL and let him have the spring training ABs that he didn't get this spring in the minors.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 23:04:54 GMT -5
For me, rather than any of the above, I'd prefer the end of the Nunez era.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2019 23:07:21 GMT -5
So I'd missed this until Cora talked about it the other day, but apparently the player needs to sign off on rehab assignments now. Strikes me as one of the "creature comfort" things the players association bargained for last time around while letting the owners run off with all the cash.
I admittedly have no idea whether this is new or not. Cora seemed to indicate as much.
One wonders if Pearce and Pedroia are examples of players insisting they're ready before they really were.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 1, 2019 0:12:44 GMT -5
For me, rather than any of the above, I'd prefer the end of the Nunez era. I agree, but the Sox want to make sure Pedrioa can actually play this time. Bradford on WEEI (radio) seemed to indicate that the Sox wants to test Pedrioa's knees in a rehab. If Pedrioa's knees fail again the Sox want it to happen while he's in the minors and not affecting the major league club. Pedrioa should be willing this time around even though he's rejected minor league assignments in the past. Once Pedrioa is back, Nunez seems like a goner.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 1, 2019 0:24:35 GMT -5
I love Cora, but he literally condecended himself here. "Don't judge us for playing badly at the beginning of the year and not taking spring training seriously, but now we are rolling after one month of baseball."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 1, 2019 4:04:51 GMT -5
Not being a Negative Nancy.... being a realist..... the Sox are done for 2019. I am officially on record as saying " they are done" Play Chavis daily at 2b. Trade Porcello. Let D. Hernandez have a rotation spot. Bring LAkins and Feltman up. Cut Nunez. Offer Betts one last contract and if he declines... trade him now. THose are starters... Noted. (Fangraphs gave them a 47% chance of making the playoffs before today's win.) "With an impressive 5-1 victory over the A’s on Tuesday night, the Red Sox closed out April on an upswing — a 7-4 push to the end of the first leg of the season-long race. Even with their recent improvement, however, a 13-17 record and .443 winning percentage at the end of April almost never characterize a championship team. The last time a team ended April with a winning percentage as poor as that and still went on to win the World Series was 1980, when the Phillies overcame a 6-9 start. That last World Series winner to finish April as many as four games under .500 was the 1935 Tigers." www2.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/30/april-put-red-sox-hole-but-they-clearly-climbing-out/GIimhBI7m3tBX87YlMgplN/story.htmlLast post. I'm not saying it can't be done, but Speier just noted that the last team to win a world series while having this bad of a record into May was 39 or 84 years ago (depending on the way you look at it). This team has zero margin for error the rest of the way through.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 6:44:15 GMT -5
Noted. (Fangraphs gave them a 47% chance of making the playoffs before today's win.) "With an impressive 5-1 victory over the A’s on Tuesday night, the Red Sox closed out April on an upswing — a 7-4 push to the end of the first leg of the season-long race. Even with their recent improvement, however, a 13-17 record and .443 winning percentage at the end of April almost never characterize a championship team. The last time a team ended April with a winning percentage as poor as that and still went on to win the World Series was 1980, when the Phillies overcame a 6-9 start. That last World Series winner to finish April as many as four games under .500 was the 1935 Tigers." www2.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/30/april-put-red-sox-hole-but-they-clearly-climbing-out/GIimhBI7m3tBX87YlMgplN/story.htmlLast post. I'm not saying it can't be done, but Speier just noted that the last team to win a world series while having this bad of a record into May was 39 or 84 years ago (depending on the way you look at it). This team has zero margin for error the rest of the way through. This is such bad methodology compared to just looking at the Fangraphs odds.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 1, 2019 8:21:18 GMT -5
And just how many Wild Card teams were involved 39 and 84 years ago?
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2019 8:25:50 GMT -5
Dizzy Dean and the Gashouse Gang were the wildest Cards team there's been, I'd say.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2019 9:26:57 GMT -5
Dizzy Dean and the Gashouse Gang were the wildest Cards team there's been, I'd say. True, but Joaquin Andujar was kind of zany, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2019 9:34:37 GMT -5
Noted. (Fangraphs gave them a 47% chance of making the playoffs before today's win.) "With an impressive 5-1 victory over the A’s on Tuesday night, the Red Sox closed out April on an upswing — a 7-4 push to the end of the first leg of the season-long race. Even with their recent improvement, however, a 13-17 record and .443 winning percentage at the end of April almost never characterize a championship team. The last time a team ended April with a winning percentage as poor as that and still went on to win the World Series was 1980, when the Phillies overcame a 6-9 start. That last World Series winner to finish April as many as four games under .500 was the 1935 Tigers." www2.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/30/april-put-red-sox-hole-but-they-clearly-climbing-out/GIimhBI7m3tBX87YlMgplN/story.htmlLast post. I'm not saying it can't be done, but Speier just noted that the last team to win a world series while having this bad of a record into May was 39 or 84 years ago (depending on the way you look at it). This team has zero margin for error the rest of the way through. Honestly, I think the Red Sox actually have a better chance of winning the World Series than they do of winning the American League East. If they can grab one of the Wild Cards and win the play-in game then they have a legit shot if they have themselves righted by then - you'd assume if they're in the playoffs that they have built up a head of steam. I honestly don't think they'll come back from their deficit to win the division. I think Tampa is legitimately a really good team, underrated, and the Yankees are playing well while injured - if they get their guys back, they'll be scary good, too, so trying to win the division with this big a hole is daunting. But if the Sox can catch some of that 2018 magic in October, they have a shot at winning. Strange things can happen. The 1973 Mets got to Game 7 of the WS, but had been in the basement in August in a weak division. The 2011 Cardinals were barely above .500 in August and wound up winning everything. Even those 1980 Phillies you referenced, we only about 10 games over .500 about 2/3 of the way through the season in a tight battle with the Pirates and the Montreal Expos before they eeked out a division title with 91 wins and survived Houston and beat KC in the Series. Like others said, the Wild Cards increase their chances of making the post-season, but like every other team, even the ones that didn't struggle, their chances are limited by the number of teams, rounds, etc. - but even despite that I like those odds better than their odds of winning the division, but they still have a shot at the Wild Card if they get their act together.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 9:38:24 GMT -5
And just how many Wild Card teams were involved 39 and 84 years ago? The statistical slight-of-hand here is that every team has fairly long odds to win the World Series at the end of April, no matter what their record. You basically don't have better than an even-money shot until you've actually reached the series. And on top of that, we know that the Red Sox are a far better team on talent than most of the teams that have finished April with a losing record.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 1, 2019 10:12:07 GMT -5
This is the 13th anniversary of the infamous Doug Mirabelli entrance from San Diego
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Post by manfred on May 1, 2019 11:31:53 GMT -5
Game is played on the field, man. Can they make the playoffs? Let’s see.
As for Thornburg... when Nunez gets back, they should take least permanent option. Better to send Brewer down that lose Thornburg. I’d rather give a guy who has done it a chance to regain his control after major surgery than lose him in favor of a guy who is even riskier and has no track record.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 1, 2019 12:20:22 GMT -5
The good news is that aside from Chavis, I'm not sure there's a position player or starting pitcher right now due for regression to the mean.
Devers should show more power, Benintendi will hopefully remember how to pull the ball in the air and is due for progression in general, JBJ should at least get back to being below average offensively and not stunningly terrible, Pearce in a similar boat.
Throw a dart into the starting rotation save for Price, and you'll hit someone who hopefully will progress to their mean.
Lot of season left to play, and maybe this ugly April was the only way to get these guys to feel like there's a chip on their shoulder.
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Post by manfred on May 1, 2019 12:41:03 GMT -5
Question: if Pedey is done, which seems possible, has he done enough to make the Hall of Fame? On the one hand, his WAR numbers are competitive, he has a lot of hardware, and he was the leader of the Sox in their greatest stretch ever. On the other hand, his cumulative traditional stats do not clear any classic thresholds... especially hits.
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2019 12:59:29 GMT -5
Question: if Pedey is done, which seems possible, has he done enough to make the Hall of Fame? On the one hand, his WAR numbers are competitive, he has a lot of hardware, and he was the leader of the Sox in their greatest stretch ever. On the other hand, his cumulative traditional stats do not clear any classic thresholds... especially hits. I don't think his WAR/Advanced metrics case is particularly strong. Lower career WAR than Ian Kinsler (who I'm guessing won't break 5%), and Willie Randolph, and significantly lower than Chase Utley, Bobby Grich, and Lou Whitaker. 23rd among second basement in WAR, 19th in Jay Jaffe's JAWS system: www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtmlHis peak was right in line with a HOF second baseman, and he was a key part of two World Series winners, so I'm guessing he'd get some support. But I'd say he's at least one decent season, and probably two, short of having a strong case. Comparing his case to Biggio, who had a similar peak, and Biggio stayed productive long enough to compile 1000 more career hits and 500 more walks than Pedroia did. I can't see it.
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Post by fenwaydouble on May 1, 2019 13:13:24 GMT -5
Question: if Pedey is done, which seems possible, has he done enough to make the Hall of Fame? On the one hand, his WAR numbers are competitive, he has a lot of hardware, and he was the leader of the Sox in their greatest stretch ever. On the other hand, his cumulative traditional stats do not clear any classic thresholds... especially hits. I don't think his WAR/Advanced metrics case is particularly strong. Lower career WAR than Ian Kinsler (who I'm guessing won't break 5%), and Willie Randolph, and significantly lower than Chase Utley, Bobby Grich, and Lou Whitaker. 23rd among second basement in WAR, 19th in Jay Jaffe's JAWS system: www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtmlHis peak was right in line with a HOF second baseman, and he was a key part of two World Series winners, so I'm guessing he'd get some support. But I'd say he's at least one decent season, and probably two, short of having a strong case. Comparing his case to Biggio, who had a similar peak, and Biggio stayed productive long enough to compile 1000 more career hits and 500 more walks than Pedroia did. I can't see it. I also don't think the narrative is really there. It's strange, because there was definitely a stretch were he was THE Red Sox player in terms of representing team identity, but those years didn't really line up with the years that the team was most successful for the most part. Now he's so completely overshadowed by the young core that it's easy to forget he's on the team. That's mostly because he's been hurt, but I just saw that he put up a 4.9 fWAR season in 2016 and I have basically no memory of that despite watching a ton of games that year.
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2019 13:20:30 GMT -5
I don't think his WAR/Advanced metrics case is particularly strong. Lower career WAR than Ian Kinsler (who I'm guessing won't break 5%), and Willie Randolph, and significantly lower than Chase Utley, Bobby Grich, and Lou Whitaker. 23rd among second basement in WAR, 19th in Jay Jaffe's JAWS system: www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtmlHis peak was right in line with a HOF second baseman, and he was a key part of two World Series winners, so I'm guessing he'd get some support. But I'd say he's at least one decent season, and probably two, short of having a strong case. Comparing his case to Biggio, who had a similar peak, and Biggio stayed productive long enough to compile 1000 more career hits and 500 more walks than Pedroia did. I can't see it. I also don't think the narrative is really there. It's strange, because there was definitely a stretch were he was THE Red Sox player in terms of representing team identity, but those years didn't really line up with the years that the team was most successful for the most part. Now he's so completely overshadowed by the young core that it's easy to forget he's on the team. That's mostly because he's been hurt, but I just saw that he put up a 4.9 fWAR season in 2016 and I have basically no memory of that despite watching a ton of games that year. Eh, he was the league MVP in 2008 when the Red Sox could have easily won (might've been the most talented roster they had in the 2003-11 run), and he was the best player on the team in 2013 when they did win. I think there's enough narrative there that it would push him over the top if he were a borderline case.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2019 13:25:01 GMT -5
JBJ is starting to warm up. Single and a 108 mph line drive out.
I really like Walden. His stuff matches his numbers in my opinion.
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Post by kevfc89 on May 1, 2019 13:29:27 GMT -5
Walden is awesome
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2019 13:47:44 GMT -5
Glad we didn't just cut Workman like someone suggested.
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huskies15
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Post by huskies15 on May 1, 2019 13:52:47 GMT -5
Devers looks so locked in right now, and Chavis keeps putting together pretty solid ABs. Young guys looking good right now.
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