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2019 Draft Signing Period
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 5, 2019 15:08:35 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2019 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been decently solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 2 Cameron Cannon $1,500,000 2 Matthew Lugo $1,100,000 3 Ryan Zeferjahn $543,500 4 Noah Song $406,600 (this one is especially cloudy) 5 Jaxx Gorshans $304,200 6 Chris Murphy $237,000 7 Brock Bell $150,000 8 Wil Dalton $159,700 9 Cody Scroggins $10,000 10 Stephen Scott $2,500
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) 11 Sebastian Keane $350,000 13 Blake Loubier $200,000 14 Jordan Beck $200,000 15 Aaron Roberts $200,000 16 Oraj Anu $200,000 (Calling 13-16 the Brandon Howlett specials)
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 12 Brendan Cellucci 17 Alex Erro 19 Joe Davis 20 Reed Harrington 21 Dylan Spacke 24 Dean Miller 26 Brandon Walter 27 Devon Roedahl 30 Nathan Martorella 32 Bradley Blalock 34 Ryan Berardino
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $4,938,500 Red Sox Cap: $4,788,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,027,505
Super wicked early projected not to sign 18 Jacob Herbert 22 Dominic D'Alessandro 23 Leon Paulino 25 Karson Simas 28 Daniel Bakst 29 Luke Bandy 31 Feleipe Franks 33 Thayer Thomas 35 Chris Mauloni 36 Caleb Hill 37 Connor Prielipp 38 Cameron Meeks 39 Sammy Faltine 40 Garrett Irvin
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 5, 2019 17:57:03 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2019 18:05:20 GMT -5
I decided to take a hack at bonus projections. I didn't track down details of all these guys, so it may not be quite accurate, but why not? I understand that Bakst and Bandy are probably reaches, but there was some leftover $ when I finished this, so I decided to throw them in there.
Cap: 4,788.1k Cap Plus 5%: 5,027.505k
Cannon 1,400k Lugo: 1,200k Zeferjahn: 543.5k (Slot) Song: 425k Groshans 304.2k (Slot) Murphy: 200k Bell: 160k Dalton: 145k Scroggins: 20k Scott: 5k Keane: 375k (250k towards cap) Cellucci: 135k (10k towards cap) Loubier: 175k (50k towards cap) Beck: 200k (75k towards cap) Roberts: 215k (90k towards cap) Anu: 200k (75k towards cap) Erro: ≤125k Herbert: ≤125k Davis: ≤125k Harrington: ≤125k Spacke: Unsigned D’Alessandro: ≤125k Paulino: Unsigned Miller: ≤125k Simas: ≤125k Walter: ≤125k Roedahl: Unsigned Bakst: 145k (20k towards cap) Bandy: 175k (50k towards cap) Martorella: ≤125k Franks: Unsigned Blalock: Unsigned Thomas: Unsigned Berardino: ≤125k Mauloni: Unsigned Hill: ≤125k Prielipp: Unsigned Meeks: Unsigned Faltine: Unsigned Irvin: Unsigned Total: 5022.7k Remaining: 4.805k
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 5, 2019 18:20:13 GMT -5
Sounds like Dominic D'Alessandro might be signing.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 5, 2019 18:26:08 GMT -5
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 5, 2019 18:34:09 GMT -5
According to the Fresno Bee, Karson Simas has not committed to a college yet. Since he hasn't committed to a school, maybe the Sox have a shot at signing him. Fresno Bee
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 5, 2019 18:39:33 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2019 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been decently solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus2 Cameron Cannon $1,500,000 2 Matthew Lugo $1,100,000 3 Ryan Zeferjahn $543,500 4 Noah Song $406,600 (this one is especially cloudy) 5 Jaxx Gorshans $304,200 6 Chris Murphy $237,000 7 Brock Bell $150,000 8 Wil Dalton $159,700 9 Cody Scroggins $10,000 10 Stephen Scott $2,500 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Sebastian Keane $350,000 13 Blake Loubier $200,000 14 Jordan Beck $200,000 15 Aaron Roberts $200,000 16 Oraj Anu $200,000 (Calling 13-16 the Brandon Howlett specials) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 12 Brendan Cellucci 17 Alex Erro 19 Joe Davis 20 Reed Harrington 21 Dylan Spacke 24 Dean Miller 26 Brandon Walter 27 Devon Roedahl 30 Nathan Martorella 32 Bradley Blalock 34 Ryan Berardino Total spent towards cap using these projections: $4,938,500 Red Sox Cap: $4,788,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,027,505 Super wicked early projected not to sign18 Jacob Herbert 22 Dominic D'Alessandro 23 Leon Paulino 25 Karson Simas 28 Daniel Bakst 29 Luke Bandy 31 Feleipe Franks 33 Thayer Thomas 35 Chris Mauloni 36 Caleb Hill 37 Connor Prielipp 38 Cameron Meeks 39 Sammy Faltine 40 Garrett Irvin I agree with this list for the most part! Thank you for all of the work put in during this process. You are probably preparing for a ridiculous amount of annoying questions from antsy fans. Part of the fun I suppose, but its that time of year. Anyways, I think we have a shot at Karson Simas and somone like Daniel Bakst. I am hoping/guessing that we sign all but Jacob Herbert up to 25 and grab one more HS kid. They have a decent amount of cap to play with considering they didn't step to far out on the limb in higher rounds. edit: I think that Song will take less money. We need to pay him enough to step away if its an option, but he doesn't seem to have $400k leverage. I could be completely wrong, but i'm hoping $250k does it.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 5, 2019 18:45:28 GMT -5
Excellent! Reed Harrington is one of the guys im super excited about.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2019 18:45:44 GMT -5
According to the Fresno Bee, Karson Simas has not committed to a college yet. Since he hasn't committed to a school, maybe the Sox have a shot at signing him. Fresno BeeFor its worth, his twitter profile already reads "Redsox organization."
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 5, 2019 18:46:31 GMT -5
Think this has the makings of a Chris Machamer type thing?
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 5, 2019 18:49:18 GMT -5
According to Wake Forest coach Tom Walter, the Sox had Blake Loubier in for a pre-draft tryout at Fenway. Loubier submitted an aggressive amount for a signing bonus. Walter said it's a toss up if he signs or starts his career at Wake Forest. The info is about five paragraphs into the article. Loubier article
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 5, 2019 21:55:51 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 5, 2019 22:08:10 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 5, 2019 22:45:43 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 5, 2019 23:01:40 GMT -5
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 5, 2019 23:10:26 GMT -5
Another good quote from his coach and former big leaguer, Mackey Sasser, (not a name I expected to to read today) that he "needs to go play pro ball". Certainly exciting news IMO, college did him well, really want his power potential from both sides now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2019 23:17:15 GMT -5
Isn't D'Alessandro a senior? Why would he not sign?
edit: Caleb Hill, too.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 6, 2019 1:38:35 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 6, 2019 4:12:12 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 6, 2019 7:18:34 GMT -5
According to the Fresno Bee, Karson Simas has not committed to a college yet. Since he hasn't committed to a school, maybe the Sox have a shot at signing him. Fresno BeeFor its worth, his twitter profile already reads "Redsox organization." If he's a HS senior and hasn't committed to a college in June, yeah, he's probably signing (unless he'd just enroll in a JuCo, I guess...)
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 6, 2019 8:01:34 GMT -5
I count 7 HS picks after round 10 that are ranked by someone. Also, only one senior in rounds 6-10 so not much effort to save money or stretch a dollar. Could this be the mythical situation where a team blows through their limit and just signs everyone? No way. They would have drafted all the tough sign picks if they were going to do that. A guy like Maurice Hampton was ranked 29th overall and wasn't drafted until the 23rd round. If the Sox were doing that, they definitely take guys like him earlier than they went.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 6, 2019 8:07:48 GMT -5
Yeah, if they were going to blow up the draft pool, they'd have gone in on guys like Hampton and Jack Leiter. They're not going to do it by like $800K to sign three or four extra guys ranked in the 300-500 range.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,075
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Post by cdj on Jun 6, 2019 8:11:51 GMT -5
I count 7 HS picks after round 10 that are ranked by someone. Also, only one senior in rounds 6-10 so not much effort to save money or stretch a dollar. Could this be the mythical situation where a team blows through their limit and just signs everyone? I’m just spit balling here but perhaps they did it because they realize they already have pretty full rosters in short season ball and they figured they’d take a bunch of shit and throw it at the wall and see who signs. I don’t think they’ll be signing most of the HS kids they took in the teens and later but I don’t think it would be financially possible to anyway. So while these kids won’t be as likely to sign as a junior/senior in college they offer the opportunity at upside over depth (and they already have a lot of depth so it’s a good strategy if that’s what their doing imo) I don’t think they’re doing that “mythical situation” though. They would’ve drafted more of the major signability-concern guys if that was the case
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Post by brockholtsuperstar on Jun 6, 2019 9:19:58 GMT -5
Looks like Dom D'Alessandro plans on signing (thanks to the guy who taught me how to embed tweets)
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 6, 2019 9:33:45 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2019 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been decently solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus2 Cameron Cannon $1,500,000 2 Matthew Lugo $1,100,000 3 Ryan Zeferjahn $500,000 (signed) 4 Noah Song $200,000 (this one is especially cloudy) 5 Jaxx Gorshans $304,200 6 Chris Murphy $237,000 7 Brock Bell $150,000 8 Wil Dalton $159,700 9 Cody Scroggins $10,000 10 Stephen Scott $2,500 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Sebastian Keane $400,000 12 Brendan Cellucci $300,000 13 Blake Loubier $300,000 14 Jordan Beck $250,000 16 Oraj Anu $200,000 After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 17 Alex Erro 18 Jacob Herbert 19 Joe Davis 20 Reed Harrington 21 Dylan Spacke 22 Dominic D'Alessandro 23 Leon Paulino - signed for $125,000 24 Dean Miller 25 Karson Simas 26 Brandon Walter 27 Devon Roedahl 29 Luke Bandy 30 Nathan Martorella 34 Ryan Berardino 36 Caleb Hill Total spent towards cap using these projections: $5,013,400 Red Sox Cap: $4,788,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,027,505 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Aaron Roberts 28 Daniel Bakst 31 Feleipe Franks 32 Bradley Blalock 33 Thayer Thomas 35 Chris Mauloni 37 Connor Prielipp 38 Cameron Meeks 39 Sammy Faltine 40 Garrett Irvin Some early updates
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