SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
6/24-6/26 Red Sox vs. White Sox Series Thread
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 26, 2019 10:54:31 GMT -5
I'll point out that BA on balls in play is a random variate. That means its randomly distributed within games and across a range of games as well. So all that stuff in The Athletic means - to me - is that they've seen a stretch early in the season where the low end of that statistical variation accumulated early in games. I understand that they have to fill space and harvest eyeballs. But this sort of analysis needs a much larger sample size to be robust I believe.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 10:58:38 GMT -5
I'm not convinced if they played the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Twins (who they just beat which is why I'm starting to get the warm fuzzies) over these past two games, they'd pull out wins. I don't knock them, at all, for losing against Toronto. It happens. But literally, sub-.500 bad teams will find ways to lose games. Just by nature of who they are means they'll most likely lose to whomever they face. They're bad for a reason. For example, the Rangers disposed of the Tigers last night. The Yankees took care of the Blue Jays. The Red Sox beat the White Sox. The Athletics beat the Cardinals (who aren't terrible, but not great). The Indians lost to KC, but that's because Brad Hand just absolutely imploded on the mound. That's also not to say that the Yankees couldn't lose to Toronto or that the Rangers couldn't lose to the Tigers. It's just on a night-in, night-out that bad teams are likely to lose to good teams on a regular basis. That's why they're under .500. Now, sweeping away bad teams on a consistent basis is doing wonders for them in catching up and there's really nothing to complain about when they're getting the job done, even despite the lack of competition. Also, they're hot right now. Baseball is like basketball in that it's a game of runs. In baseball, teams will get hot and cool down, it's just the nature of the beast. At some point, the Red Sox aren't going to continue winning at a 99-win clip. It's just not going to happen. You also can't excuse what they did at the beginning of the season either. Those games counted. If they can climb out of the hole they dug themselves and maintain, great. At some point they will slow down again and hopefully it's not the ice cold crap fest that we saw in April and May. Anyone who was paying attention knows that they really were not the same team at the beginning of the season, especially in terms of the starting pitching. I think it's fair to throw out that bad start in terms of predicting how they'ill do going forward. (I could actually make them look even better by pointing to their record since April 29th, the day that kjkramer officially surrendered for the season; they're 33-20 since then, a 101-win pace. But that would be a little cherry-pickish.) Of course, the games at the beginning of the season count in the standings, which is why they're 8 games out of first place and only project to get to 93 or 94 wins even if they play at a 99-win rate the rest of the way. The whole "only games against the best teams reveal the true soul of the team" argument has been had already, so I'll leave that alone. I'll just re-iterate that I think any team playing at a 99-win pace is a team that is playing well. Which is great, but my main point is everyone tends to beat bad teams. The Red Sox are 27-15 against bad teams. (.643) The Rangers are 28-15 against bad teams. (.651) The Rays are 23-9 against bad teams. (.719) The Indians are 29-17 against bad teams. (.630) The Athletics are 16-16 against bad teams. (.500) The Astros are 18-9 against bad teams. (.667) The Yankees are 31-17 against bad teams. (.646) The Twins are 31-12 against bad teams. (.721) (Feel free to correct me on my math.) What the Red Sox are doing against the Baltimore's, Toronto's, the Chi Sox of the world isn't really any different than what any other contender is doing, sans Oakland. The Red Sox recently have won at slightly higher clip than the other teams in regards to these matchups. The Red Sox get to continue feasting on Toronto and Baltimore, but so doesn't the Rays. The Indians also get to feast on KC, Detroit and Chicago. The Rangers and A's get Seattle and maybe LAA if they decide to sell off. Edit: What I will give the Red Sox credit for is that their run differential is better than every Wild Card team, outside of Tampa Bay.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 26, 2019 11:02:49 GMT -5
I'm not convinced if they played the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Twins (who they just beat which is why I'm starting to get the warm fuzzies) over these past two games, they'd pull out wins. I don't knock them, at all, for losing against Toronto. It happens. But literally, sub-.500 bad teams will find ways to lose games. Just by nature of who they are means they'll most likely lose to whomever they face. They're bad for a reason. For example, the Rangers disposed of the Tigers last night. The Yankees took care of the Blue Jays. The Red Sox beat the White Sox. The Athletics beat the Cardinals (who aren't terrible, but not great). The Indians lost to KC, but that's because Brad Hand just absolutely imploded on the mound. That's also not to say that the Yankees couldn't lose to Toronto or that the Rangers couldn't lose to the Tigers. It's just on a night-in, night-out that bad teams are likely to lose to good teams on a regular basis. That's why they're under .500. Now, sweeping away bad teams on a consistent basis is doing wonders for them in catching up and there's really nothing to complain about when they're getting the job done, even despite the lack of competition. Also, they're hot right now. Baseball is like basketball in that it's a game of runs. In baseball, teams will get hot and cool down, it's just the nature of the beast. At some point, the Red Sox aren't going to continue winning at a 99-win clip. It's just not going to happen. You also can't excuse what they did at the beginning of the season either. Those games counted. If they can climb out of the hole they dug themselves and maintain, great. At some point they will slow down again and hopefully it's not the ice cold crap fest that we saw in April and May. Anyone who was paying attention knows that they really were not the same team at the beginning of the season, especially in terms of the starting pitching. I think it's fair to throw out that bad start in terms of predicting how they'ill do going forward. (I could actually make them look even better by pointing to their record since April 29th, the day that kjkramer officially surrendered for the season; they're 33-20 since then, a 101-win pace. But that would be a little cherry-pickish.) Of course, the games at the beginning of the season count in the standings, which is why they're 8 games out of first place and only project to get to 93 or 94 wins even if they play at a 99-win rate the rest of the way. The whole "only games against the best teams reveal the true soul of the team" argument has been had already, so I'll leave that alone. I'll just re-iterate that I think any team playing at a 99-win pace is a team that is playing well. Well, losses are losses and I still fault their approach. Basically for the first 2.5-3 weeks the starters were still ramping up. Losses in April are still losses. I would've been much better with getting a couple relievers and using an opener strategy for a few of the pitchers (Price, Sale, Eovaldi) and let them ramp up that way - by going through regular Spring Training throwing fewer innings early. NYY has their starters - almost by necessity virtually going just a little over 5 innings a game on average. Even with the massive injuries they had, between that strategy and their deep pen, they've excelled so far. We'll see how their pen does in the second half, but if they have as big a buffer in Aug, they can coast through that month and use the 40 man expansion in the fall to augment everything, then be fresh for the playoffs. Water under the bridge, but even with Wright and Johnson - and if Hembree and Velazquez come back doing as well as they had - they'll still need a very good arm (or two) out there. Barnes' arm must feel like a piece of raw gristle at this point.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 26, 2019 11:05:47 GMT -5
He not being an all star finalist is quite the snub. Yeah, I feel bad for Bogaerts too, but at least SS in the AL is kind of loaded this year. Urshela and Dozier over Devers is... rough. Agree, but part of me thinks he will take the 4 days rest and stew about being passed over and it puts a chip on his shoulder. Nonquantifiable, I know, but human nature and long seasons being what they are, always nice to have a talented player with a little extra motivation.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 11:08:42 GMT -5
He not being an all star finalist is quite the snub. Yeah, I feel bad for Bogaerts too, but at least SS in the AL is kind of loaded this year. Urshela and Dozier over Devers is... rough. I think MLB clearly has this backwards. They should have players/coaches decide on the starters and then have the fans vote in who they feel were "snubbed" (or at least, next in line) at each position. That way, it feels less of a popularity contest while keeping the fans happy that they get to vote in a guy. In fact, it might be better for fans as the guy they might already have the guy they want in there and get to vote on their second place choice. I just think it's silly when Xander is having the kind of year he's having. Though, Polanco really does deserve it.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 11:11:17 GMT -5
It's gotten to the point that I legitimately can't tell if people are joking about Devers. I feel bad for taking this stance, because I love the kid and I'm thrilled with his progress. But the hyperbole has gotten silly. Best hitter in the MLB? He's not the best hitter on his own team... he's not even in the conversation league-wide. Barry Bonds? Come on. Have I just missed the boat on an inside joke here? Because if I haven't, then the hype has lost contact with reality. Who said best in baseball or compared him to Barry Bonds? Did I miss something? He's having an outstanding year though. His WAR is up to 2.8. He's hitting: .317/.369/.520/.889 He also has above average range despite the early errors he was committing. The fact he's only 22 is very encouraging.
|
|
atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,818
|
Post by atzar on Jun 26, 2019 11:21:20 GMT -5
It's gotten to the point that I legitimately can't tell if people are joking about Devers. I feel bad for taking this stance, because I love the kid and I'm thrilled with his progress. But the hyperbole has gotten silly. Best hitter in the MLB? He's not the best hitter on his own team... he's not even in the conversation league-wide. Barry Bonds? Come on. Have I just missed the boat on an inside joke here? Because if I haven't, then the hype has lost contact with reality. Who said best in baseball or compared him to Barry Bonds? Did I miss something? He's having an outstanding year though. His WAR is up to 2.8. He's hitting: .317/.369/.520/.889 He also has above average range despite the early errors he was committing. The fact he's only 22 is very encouraging. Both comments are on the previous page of this thread. Maybe I'm the dumbass for taking a comment seriously when it's said during a 4-hit night (or maybe I'm just a dumbass for paying attention to comments posted during games in general), but it struck me as excessive. He has been very good though, I agree.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 11:23:48 GMT -5
Who said best in baseball or compared him to Barry Bonds? Did I miss something? He's having an outstanding year though. His WAR is up to 2.8. He's hitting: .317/.369/.520/.889 He also has above average range despite the early errors he was committing. The fact he's only 22 is very encouraging. Both comments are on the previous page of this thread. Maybe I'm the dumbass for taking a comment seriously when it's said during a 4-hit night (or maybe I'm just a dumbass for paying attention to in-game comments in general), but it struck me as excessive. He has been very good though, I agree. Ah. I wouldn't take those seriously, I hope they're not. Ha. Though if he's hitting like this now then I can only imagine his age 28 season. He seems to have a few 1.000+ OPS seasons in him.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 26, 2019 11:32:48 GMT -5
Yeah, I feel bad for Bogaerts too, but at least SS in the AL is kind of loaded this year. Urshela and Dozier over Devers is... rough. I think MLB clearly has this backwards. They should have players/coaches decide on the starters and then have the fans vote in who they feel were "snubbed" (or at least, next in line) at each position. That way, it feels less of a popularity contest while keeping the fans happy that they get to vote in a guy. In fact, it might be better for fans as the guy they might already have the guy they want in there and get to vote on their second place choice. I just think it's silly when Xander is having the kind of year he's having. Though, Polanco really does deserve it. I agree Xander deserves it....the most IMO....and not because he is my favorite. He is having a great year. The leadership...play....it is disgusting that Sox fans are allowing this to happen...and that may include people on this board, including myself...I waited to late to get involved. As far as Polanco.....he was suspended last year for PED. If he gets the start....it will be a travesty. If your gonna cheat....at least have the decency to not get caught. If you get caught.....well....fans should be more particular
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 11:42:44 GMT -5
I think MLB clearly has this backwards. They should have players/coaches decide on the starters and then have the fans vote in who they feel were "snubbed" (or at least, next in line) at each position. That way, it feels less of a popularity contest while keeping the fans happy that they get to vote in a guy. In fact, it might be better for fans as the guy they might already have the guy they want in there and get to vote on their second place choice. I just think it's silly when Xander is having the kind of year he's having. Though, Polanco really does deserve it. I agree Xander deserves it....the most IMO....and not because he is my favorite. He is having a great year. The leadership...play....it is disgusting that Sox fans are allowing this to happen...and that may include people on this board, including myself...I waited to late to get involved. As far as Polanco.....he was suspended last year for PED. If he gets the start....it will be a travesty. If your gonna cheat....at least have the decency to not get caught. If you get caught.....well....fans should be more particular So, curious question, should Polanco or Chavis not be allowed into future ASG or is it just a 1-year grace period?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jun 26, 2019 11:52:19 GMT -5
Anyone who was paying attention knows that they really were not the same team at the beginning of the season, especially in terms of the starting pitching. I think it's fair to throw out that bad start in terms of predicting how they'ill do going forward. (I could actually make them look even better by pointing to their record since April 29th, the day that kjkramer officially surrendered for the season; they're 33-20 since then, a 101-win pace. But that would be a little cherry-pickish.) Of course, the games at the beginning of the season count in the standings, which is why they're 8 games out of first place and only project to get to 93 or 94 wins even if they play at a 99-win rate the rest of the way. The whole "only games against the best teams reveal the true soul of the team" argument has been had already, so I'll leave that alone. I'll just re-iterate that I think any team playing at a 99-win pace is a team that is playing well. Well, losses are losses and I still fault their approach. Basically for the first 2.5-3 weeks the starters were still ramping up. Losses in April are still losses. I would've been much better with getting a couple relievers and using an opener strategy for a few of the pitchers (Price, Sale, Eovaldi) and let them ramp up that way - by going through regular Spring Training throwing fewer innings early. NYY has their starters - almost by necessity virtually going just a little over 5 innings a game on average. Even with the massive injuries they had, between that strategy and their deep pen, they've excelled so far. We'll see how their pen does in the second half, but if they have as big a buffer in Aug, they can coast through that month and use the 40 man expansion in the fall to augment everything, then be fresh for the playoffs. Water under the bridge, but even with Wright and Johnson - and if Hembree and Velazquez come back doing as well as they had - they'll still need a very good arm (or two) out there. Barnes' arm must feel like a piece of raw gristle at this point. Yeah, I agree with all of that (except for being less sure they need another bullpen arm). The lousy start is why we're fighting for a wild card rather than the division lead. Like I said, it's just that their performance during the awful start was not reflective of the team's ability and shouldn't be taken as predictive of how they'll do going forward.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 26, 2019 12:18:43 GMT -5
Not an ideal start...WTF?
|
|
|
Post by coachmac on Jun 26, 2019 12:21:35 GMT -5
2d consecutiv poor start for Sale. Only threw 1 fastball in his first 11 pitches. Slider has not been sharp.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 12:25:00 GMT -5
White Sox just missed their chance to win this game.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jun 26, 2019 12:29:31 GMT -5
2d consecutiv poor start for Sale. Only threw 1 fastball in his first 11 pitches. Slider has not been sharp. Not watching the game, but from the game log, it looks like the White Sox we’re jumping all over the slider.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 12:31:47 GMT -5
Just remember, Lopez has a 6.21 ERA with a FIP of 5.91. Unless he is uncharacteristically good, Red Sox should be able to come back from 3-0. Just depends on how Sale is moving forward.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 26, 2019 12:35:42 GMT -5
BOOM goes JD.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 26, 2019 12:40:22 GMT -5
I agree Xander deserves it....the most IMO....and not because he is my favorite. He is having a great year. The leadership...play....it is disgusting that Sox fans are allowing this to happen...and that may include people on this board, including myself...I waited to late to get involved. As far as Polanco.....he was suspended last year for PED. If he gets the start....it will be a travesty. If your gonna cheat....at least have the decency to not get caught. If you get caught.....well....fans should be more particular So, curious question, should Polanco or Chavis not be allowed into future ASG or is it just a 1-year grace period? Good question. The punishment should fit the "crime".....i don't put value judgment on it...except in a situation like this...where I am passing judgement. I also don't like too many rules.....as guys likely won't be a deterrent. But 1 yerar ban for ASG..I think that works
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 26, 2019 12:41:09 GMT -5
BTW....win !! At work. On lunch./ Break
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 26, 2019 12:45:00 GMT -5
This is awesome. At what point will Red Sox performance stop generating 4 pages of garbage posts talking about winning percentage vs. teams with winning records in game day threads?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jun 26, 2019 12:45:30 GMT -5
So, curious question, should Polanco or Chavis not be allowed into future ASG or is it just a 1-year grace period? Good question. The punishment should fit the "crime".....i don't put value judgment on it...except in a situation like this...where I am passing judgement. I also don't like too many rules.....as guys likely won't be a deterrent. But 1 yerar ban for ASG..I think that works The 80-game suspension is the punishment. If the punishment should be more than that they should make the suspension longer. Why make it harder for them to participate in the, uh, civic activities of the game after they've already paid their debt?
|
|
|
Post by coachmac on Jun 26, 2019 12:46:55 GMT -5
2d inning 7 pitches.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 26, 2019 12:47:11 GMT -5
Nice quick way to get a few back and then the shut down inning. Time to go to work and move ahead...Yankees already in a big hole today.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jun 26, 2019 12:47:53 GMT -5
Well an 8-pitch inning sure hit the spot there.
And Nunez does his best to return the favor...
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 26, 2019 12:52:42 GMT -5
This is awesome. At what point will Red Sox performance stop generating 4 pages of garbage posts talking about winning percentage vs. teams with winning records in game day threads? Pretty much going as scripted.
|
|
|