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Post by notstarboard on Nov 1, 2021 23:53:29 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night. How about Kyle Seager, nice lefty with good defense at 3rd and maybe 2nd? I was thinking more of a middle infielder type to take a fair chunk of reps at SS in addition to 3B and 2B, but I have a lot of respect for Seager and he's great at 3B. His lack of exposure at 2B makes it that a bit dubious to bank on, but I wouldn't be surprised if he can play an alright 2B. Given his age, he would probably join right in on the DH carousel once a week or so, but he'd be a plus when at 3B and could maybe show Devers a thing or two. Could be fun if the cost is relatively low, but my suspicion is that he'll be more expensive than I could justify.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 2, 2021 9:11:32 GMT -5
Maybe I'm alone here, but Kyle Seager just isn't good IMO. He hit .212 with an OBP of .285. Those 35 home runs were just an empty stat
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 2, 2021 9:24:30 GMT -5
Maybe I'm alone here, but Kyle Seager just isn't good IMO. He hit .212 with an OBP of .285. Those 35 home runs were just an empty stat He's been a pretty good hitter in the past, but his 2021 numbers are strange - he had a massive K-rate spike, and it's not clear how much of this was approach and how much of it was skill deterioration. He swung at way more pitches than he ever has before while also making less contact on swings both inside and out of the zone.
Even if they think they can fix the approach, he's still not a great fit for this team as a 3B only guy.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Nov 2, 2021 18:56:59 GMT -5
Regarding the opt-out and then accepting the QO, I know it's seen as a crazy idea, but he would basically be giving up $1M this year for the chance to make potentially much more on his next contract. Considering that he'll be 35 after the next season, the QO would just add one more reason for teams to not offer him as much. So, if he plays the system this year either a) the Sox don't offer the QO and he's good to go, or b) he makes slightly less now and enters the next off-season with no strings.
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Post by carl4sox on Nov 2, 2021 19:30:22 GMT -5
The other option: Chaim tells Boras that they love JD. But if he opts-in, they'll be trading him.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 2, 2021 19:32:21 GMT -5
Regarding the opt-out and then accepting the QO, I know it's seen as a crazy idea, but he would basically be giving up $1M this year for the chance to make potentially much more on his next contract. Considering that he'll be 35 after the next season, the QO would just add one more reason for teams to not offer him as much. So, if he plays the system this year either a) the Sox don't offer the QO and he's good to go, or b) he makes slightly less now and enters the next off-season with no strings. I think that his age is the exact reason why he wouldn't 'plan' for this. He's at the age where he's likely to take as much money as possible right away before his skills diminish - rather that taking short term deals to make more long-term. That being said, I'm sure he and his agent wouldn't mind accepting the QO if his market craters (i.e. he is offered less than the QO) due to CBA issues, medicals, no universal-DH, etc.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2021 19:42:01 GMT -5
Regarding the opt-out and then accepting the QO, I know it's seen as a crazy idea, but he would basically be giving up $1M this year for the chance to make potentially much more on his next contract. Considering that he'll be 35 after the next season, the QO would just add one more reason for teams to not offer him as much. So, if he plays the system this year either a) the Sox don't offer the QO and he's good to go, or b) he makes slightly less now and enters the next off-season with no strings. I think that his age is the exact reason why he wouldn't 'plan' for this. He's at the age where he's likely to take as much money as possible right away before his skills diminish - rather that taking short term deals to make more long-term. That being said, I'm sure he and his agent wouldn't mind accepting the QO if his market craters (i.e. he is offered less than the QO) due to CBA issues, medicals, no universal-DH, etc. Only problem with the 2nd half of your post is that I believe a player only has 10 days to accept a QO so it'd be really hard for them to know what the market will really be at that point. I don't think it'd be that farfetched for JD to opt out and accept the QO. Maybe he wants to bet on himself that he won't drop off and can even improve on his season this year. If he were to do that he'd almost guaranteed get a larger offer next year with no QO attached.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Nov 2, 2021 22:20:43 GMT -5
I think that his age is the exact reason why he wouldn't 'plan' for this. He's at the age where he's likely to take as much money as possible right away before his skills diminish - rather that taking short term deals to make more long-term. That being said, I'm sure he and his agent wouldn't mind accepting the QO if his market craters (i.e. he is offered less than the QO) due to CBA issues, medicals, no universal-DH, etc. Only problem with the 2nd half of your post is that I believe a player only has 10 days to accept a QO so it'd be really hard for them to know what the market will really be at that point. I don't think it'd be that farfetched for JD to opt out and accept the QO. Maybe he wants to bet on himself that he won't drop off and can even improve on his season this year. If he were to do that he'd almost guaranteed get a larger offer next year with no QO attached. The other issue here is that he has to make the decision before the new CBA is in place. If things get nasty, which is a fair bet, there is a chance that one side or the other may torpedo the universal DH idea. One of the big selling points for him to opt out now would be to make himself available for the first year that NL teams can have a DH, since there will be up to 15 new teams bidding. Still, there will be plenty of teams in 2022 that will still need a DH, so I don't see the harm in waiting for a year.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 2, 2021 22:41:43 GMT -5
Jd Martinez you are on the clock!!!
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 5:18:50 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox offering the Quallifying Offer to begin with. I don't think they'd take the chance of him taking it.
The Sox are much better off redistributing that money elsewhere. The Devers contract extension being first priority I can think of. They're going to need more room to sign him.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 5:27:43 GMT -5
Correct, he wouldn't opt out and take the QO for less coin. But I'm convinced that it would be foolish for him (and E-Rod) to turn down the QO. It could drastically impact teams' interest in signing them. So, I expect to hear five days after the WS ends that JDM will not be opting out. The BS comment will go something like, "Boston has become my home and I love playing for the RS and these fans, which I why I've decided not to opt out of my contract. Let's win in all in 2022!" It was discussed earlier in the thread, but there's a line of thinking that JDM will both opt out and accept the QO. That way he would effectively keep the same salary (less $975k) and enter next year's free agency with no QO attached. That could be a bad gamble on JDM's part. I don't see the Quallifying Offer lasting too much longer, if at all. It keeps hindering player's values on the free agent market. The non super elite players are having a hard enough time getting deals in their 30's, nevermind with the QO attached. I see the QO disappearing in a month.
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Post by vokuhila on Nov 3, 2021 5:29:25 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox offering the Quallifying Offer to begin with. I don't think they'd take the chance of him taking it. The Sox are much better off redistributing that money elsewhere. The Devers contract extension being first priority I can think of. They're going to need more room to sign him. JD's salary for '22 is $19.375M. The QO value for '22 is $18.4M. Why would JD decline $19.375M and accept $18.4M. If he opts out, the QO is a no brainer.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 5:33:00 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox offering the Quallifying Offer to begin with. I don't think they'd take the chance of him taking it. The Sox are much better off redistributing that money elsewhere. The Devers contract extension being first priority I can think of. They're going to need more room to sign him. JD's salary for '22 is $19.375M. The QO value for '22 is $18.4M. Why would JD decline $19.375M and accept $18.4M. If he opts out, the QO is a no brainer. It's not a no brainer. The Sox have payroll issues coming and Bloom could find better ways to allocate the money. I wouldn't offer it if I was Bloom.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 5:36:52 GMT -5
It was discussed earlier in the thread, but there's a line of thinking that JDM will both opt out and accept the QO. That way he would effectively keep the same salary (less $975k) and enter next year's free agency with no QO attached. That could be a bad gamble on JDM's part. I don't see the Quallifying Offer lasting too much longer, if at all. It keeps hindering player's values on the free agent market. The non super elite players are having a hard enough time getting deals in their 30's, nevermind with the QO attached. I see the QO disappearing in a month. I see it being axed also and it should be as you said it has had too much of a negative effect on the players. But I do think they should compensate the team losing the player the way they do in the NFL via compensation picks, the picks just shouldn't come from the signing team. On a different note I get the universal DH being a good thing for JD but I wonder how many teams in the NL would be in a position to pay big bucks for a DH only type guy. Their are a few but not many and who knows how they feel about spending over 15 million on that position. Nelson Cruz comes to mind as a guy who is close to JD in that he is DH only and has a great bat, at around the same age and level of productivity he did get a 4/14 in 2015. So maybe their is a 4/16 out there for him. I would be concerned about the last 5 months of last season being subpar for him but in truth he doesn't seem like the type of guy who would fall off a cliff, who knows. I hope the Sox have a good idea. The question for me has always been why hasn't he learned how to play 1st, too stiff, not athletic enough, can't field a ground ball, all of the above??
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Post by vokuhila on Nov 3, 2021 6:02:46 GMT -5
JD's salary for '22 is $19.375M. The QO value for '22 is $18.4M. Why would JD decline $19.375M and accept $18.4M. If he opts out, the QO is a no brainer. It's not a no brainer. The Sox have payroll issues coming and Bloom could find better ways to allocate the money. I wouldn't offer it if I was Bloom. Again...by declining his option and accepting the QO JD would effectivly give himself a $1M paycut. Why would he do that? I agree that the money can best spend elsewhere, in fact I'm looking forward to seeing what CB can do with some payroll flexibility. But the ball is in JD's court. If JD wants to stay in Boston for '22, he will simply exercise his option. accepting the offer makes little sense IMO.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 6:16:17 GMT -5
It's not a no brainer. The Sox have payroll issues coming and Bloom could find better ways to allocate the money. I wouldn't offer it if I was Bloom. Again...by declining his option and accepting the QO JD would effectivly give himself a $1M paycut. Why would he do that? I agree that the money can best spend elsewhere, in fact I'm looking forward to seeing what CB can do with some payroll flexibility. But the ball is in JD's court. If JD wants to stay in Boston for '22, he will simply exercise his option. accepting the offer makes little sense IMO. I don't think the situation is as black and white as you put it. We've seen this situation play out where a player has a QO attached and his market plummets time and time again. I can easily see this happening in a JDM DH only type of situation. Teams like him and value him, but don't see that as a good enough reason to spend a second or third round pick on a 35 year DH who's wants multi-years. So it creates this weird vibe tension between player and former team for months until either - A) he waits until June B) He takes way less than even the QO near or around spring training because his market is non existing. If Bloom is smart, he doesn't even risk this. Just move on. You're not getting draft picks for JDM. You're simply not. No team is going to give it up for 35 year old DH. So let him walk. Thank him for his time here and give him his due in free agency.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 3, 2021 6:18:26 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox offering the Quallifying Offer to begin with. I don't think they'd take the chance of him taking it. The Sox are much better off redistributing that money elsewhere. The Devers contract extension being first priority I can think of. They're going to need more room to sign him. Why wouldn't you offer a QO? Even if he accepts it and the team doesn't want JD anymore they can still get something for him. That would be a ridiculously awful waste of an asset. But without someone like JD or Schwarber in the lineup its going to be a long 2022. Who is your replacement for him in the lineup?
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 6:20:56 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox offering the Quallifying Offer to begin with. I don't think they'd take the chance of him taking it. The Sox are much better off redistributing that money elsewhere. The Devers contract extension being first priority I can think of. They're going to need more room to sign him. Why wouldn't you offer a QO? Even if he accepts it and the team doesn't want JD anymore they can still get something for him. That would be a ridiculously awful waste of an asset. But without someone like JD or Schwarber in the lineup its going to be a long 2022. Who is your replacement for him in the lineup? If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 3, 2021 6:48:04 GMT -5
Why wouldn't you offer a QO? Even if he accepts it and the team doesn't want JD anymore they can still get something for him. That would be a ridiculously awful waste of an asset. But without someone like JD or Schwarber in the lineup its going to be a long 2022. Who is your replacement for him in the lineup? If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Kimbrell had a QO AND a bad second half AND a pyromaniac post-season, which accurately foretold that he would be terrible in 2019 and 2020, and wasn't the compensation for signing a FA with a QO higher then? JD just hit .344 .447 .688 1.135 on one leg in the post-season. The QO would be a drag on JD's market, but Kimbrell is not a good parallel.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 3, 2021 6:51:28 GMT -5
Why wouldn't you offer a QO? Even if he accepts it and the team doesn't want JD anymore they can still get something for him. That would be a ridiculously awful waste of an asset. But without someone like JD or Schwarber in the lineup its going to be a long 2022. Who is your replacement for him in the lineup? If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Kimbrel fell apart and JD Martinez has an extensive track record of being one of the best in the game when he's on. Teams would sign him. I'm not letting him go without offering a QO on the hope that I can sign Nelson Cruz to a deal. Cruz will be 42 next year. Eventually he's going to decline and its going to happen quick.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 6:59:30 GMT -5
If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Kimbrel fell apart and JD Martinez has an extensive track record of being one of the best in the game when he's on. Teams would sign him. I'm not letting him go without offering a QO on the hope that I can sign Nelson Cruz to a deal. Cruz will be 42 next year. Eventually he's going to decline and its going to happen quick. Agree to disagree here. Kimbrel got paid in June. The reason why he didn't get paid to begin that off-season was because of the QO. Kimbrel had a brilliant 2018 followed by a disastrous playoffs. Kimbrel had the track record and had the history of being on track to being one of the 5 best closers in the history of the game. If the Sox offer that QO to JDM, they are risking a huge crap storm between player and them. No one is paying and giving up picks for JDM. They'll either pay later or will move on to next option. The free agent market is filled with too many good players to be dead set on JDM. That's my take. I'll leave it at that.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 3, 2021 7:08:42 GMT -5
Kimbrel fell apart and JD Martinez has an extensive track record of being one of the best in the game when he's on. Teams would sign him. I'm not letting him go without offering a QO on the hope that I can sign Nelson Cruz to a deal. Cruz will be 42 next year. Eventually he's going to decline and its going to happen quick. Agree to disagree here. Kimbrel got paid in June. The reason why he didn't get paid to begin that off-season was because of the QO. Kimbrel had a brilliant 2018 followed by a disastrous playoffs. Kimbrel had the track record and had the history of being on track to being one of the 5 best closers in the history of the game. If the Sox offer that QO to JDM, they are risking a huge crap storm between player and them. No one is paying and giving up picks for JDM. They'll either pay later or will move on to next option. The free agent market is filled with too many good players to be dead set on JDM. That's my take. I'll leave it at that. Someone would pay JD 2/35-2/40 based on reputation alone.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 3, 2021 8:19:11 GMT -5
Why wouldn't you offer a QO? Even if he accepts it and the team doesn't want JD anymore they can still get something for him. That would be a ridiculously awful waste of an asset. But without someone like JD or Schwarber in the lineup its going to be a long 2022. Who is your replacement for him in the lineup? If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Right, they didn't get compensation for Kimbrel. But offering the qualifying offer also didn't cost the Red Sox anything. Maybe the same thing happens with JD (although it's weird you think you understand his market better than Scott Boras does) but even if it does it literally costs Boston nothing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2021 9:07:01 GMT -5
Yeah I also think it's a no-brainer to give JDM the QO if he opts out. I agree that he might take it though, the thought being he enters the 2022 market now with no QO attached, which will potentially make up for the $1M hit this year. Not certain and I get the logic of assuming he wouldn't accept it based on his just having opted out of a larger deal, but there is a logical reason for doing that.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 3, 2021 9:13:29 GMT -5
If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Right, they didn't get compensation for Kimbrel. But offering the qualifying offer also didn't cost the Red Sox anything. Maybe the same thing happens with JD (although it's weird you think you understand his market better than Scott Boras does) but even if it does it literally costs Boston nothing. The risk of offering the QO is that JD might accept. I've said this in other posts, but I agree with baseball3 that the Sox could better allocate $18 million than paying JD Martinez. I'm torn on offering him the QO, personally. I love the idea of picking up a draft pick, but I also don't know how realistic it is that the Sox actually get that pick. I also really don't want JD back.
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