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Post by telson13 on May 15, 2020 12:59:43 GMT -5
What’s the scouting report on Abel? Is there a decent comp for him? I'm generally terrified of HS pitchers and tend to have a "do not draft one in 1st round" philosophy. That said, these are unique circumstances, and if that is the demographic that drops the most...then I think you have to take the guy who could be the #1 HS arm if he is available at #17. This is the scouting report from Fangraphs where he's ranked #8 on their draft BOARD: Agreed. HS pitching is well-demonstrated statistically to be the 1st-rd black hole. But getting a guy like that...tough to pass up. I like Wells too; hit tool looks pretty good, with some wood bat pop in the Cape. Catching is at such a premium (although if I recall the success rate is pretty low). Anyone know what's going on with undrafted FAs after Rd. 5?
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Post by ramireja on May 15, 2020 13:15:32 GMT -5
Anyone know what's going on with undrafted FAs after Rd. 5? Undrafted FAs can be signed for $20K or less...no limit on how many can sign. Seems like as good of a time as any to be a team that pays their minor leaguers more than the rest of the league.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2020 13:21:48 GMT -5
Anyone know what's going on with undrafted FAs after Rd. 5? Undrafted FAs can be signed for $20K or less...no limit on how many can sign. Seems like as good of a time as any to be a team that pays their minor leaguers more than the rest of the league. Regarding minor league pay, is it fixed across the board? What is stopping a team from approaching an undrafted free agent and saying "Hey we can only give you a 20k bonus but we'll bump your salary up to where the long term equivalent is of a 500k bonus" or some other kind of wink wink deal along those lines?
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 15, 2020 13:48:30 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel just tweeted out that MLB's memo regarding the draft stated that for UFAs: "essentially, clubs cannot offer UFA any terms or benefits that they don’t offer drafted players, like school tuition & other standard programs, gear, or expenses." I think any offer of increased minor league salary, etc., would be skirting the rules and would be punishable. I doubt the Red Sox would even try it given the IFA package deal punishments from a few years ago.
ADD: Further from McDaniel: "specific things readers have brought up that clubs could use to work around UFA rules are specifically mentioned as outlawed: promises to draft/sign teammates or siblings, gifts to family/agent, higher than a club’s standard MILB salaries, promises about future roster status."
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Post by ramireja on May 15, 2020 14:12:32 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel just tweeted out that MLB's memo regarding the draft stated that for UFAs: "essentially, clubs cannot offer UFA any terms or benefits that they don’t offer drafted players, like school tuition & other standard programs, gear, or expenses." I think any offer of increased minor league salary, etc., would be skirting the rules and would be punishable. I doubt the Red Sox would even try it given the IFA package deal punishments from a few years ago. ADD: Further from McDaniel: "specific things readers have brought up that clubs could use to work around UFA rules are specifically mentioned as outlawed: promises to draft/sign teammates or siblings, gifts to family/agent, higher than a club’s standard MILB salaries, promises about future roster status." This makes sense in that certain players wouldn't be allowed higher than their club's standard salaries, BUT I was under the impression that different clubs have different salary structures (although these differences aren't massive). Is that true? I was saying it would be a good time to be a team who pays all of their minor leaguers a bit better than the rest of the league. I mean, they deserve it anyways. I'm not actually suggesting that teams implement this to have a benefit for this specific draft though.
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Post by borisman on May 15, 2020 16:42:16 GMT -5
Not many folks linking the Red Sox to Ed Howard but he's a guy I like a lot at #17 Good field, modest hit, smallish? from Fangraphs: TLDR Howard is one of the best shortstop defenders in this class, he hit against elite peers on the showcase circuit, and his frame suggests he'll grow into relevant power..... ...... He projects as an everday big league shortstop. I'd say there's considerable talent there. And no, he is NOT on the small side.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2020 20:05:25 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel just tweeted out that MLB's memo regarding the draft stated that for UFAs: "essentially, clubs cannot offer UFA any terms or benefits that they don’t offer drafted players, like school tuition & other standard programs, gear, or expenses." I think any offer of increased minor league salary, etc., would be skirting the rules and would be punishable. I doubt the Red Sox would even try it given the IFA package deal punishments from a few years ago. ADD: Further from McDaniel: "specific things readers have brought up that clubs could use to work around UFA rules are specifically mentioned as outlawed: promises to draft/sign teammates or siblings, gifts to family/agent, higher than a club’s standard MILB salaries, promises about future roster status." This makes sense in that certain players wouldn't be allowed higher than their club's standard salaries, BUT I was under the impression that different clubs have different salary structures (although these differences aren't massive). Is that true? I was saying it would be a good time to be a team who pays all of their minor leaguers a bit better than the rest of the league. I mean, they deserve it anyways. I'm not actually suggesting that teams implement this to have a benefit for this specific draft though. Teams can absolutely raise their minor league salaries across the board. JJ Cooper wrote about this relatively recently. They just can't offer inducements to UDFAs they don't offer anyone else.
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Post by ramireja on May 15, 2020 20:14:15 GMT -5
This makes sense in that certain players wouldn't be allowed higher than their club's standard salaries, BUT I was under the impression that different clubs have different salary structures (although these differences aren't massive). Is that true? I was saying it would be a good time to be a team who pays all of their minor leaguers a bit better than the rest of the league. I mean, they deserve it anyways. I'm not actually suggesting that teams implement this to have a benefit for this specific draft though. Teams can absolutely raise their minor league salaries across the board. JJ Cooper wrote about this relatively recently. They just can't offer inducements to UDFAs they don't offer anyone else. Right. They can, they absolutely should (for obvious reasons), and the timing couldn't be better (for UDFAs) to demonstrate higher pay relative to the rest of the league.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 15, 2020 20:21:03 GMT -5
Good field, modest hit, smallish? from Fangraphs: TLDR Howard is one of the best shortstop defenders in this class, he hit against elite peers on the showcase circuit, and his frame suggests he'll grow into relevant power..... ...... He projects as an everday big league shortstop. I'd say there's considerable talent there. And no, he is NOT on the small side. The below brings some perspective... Howard is 6'2" For so many years watching the class A Sarasox play against bigger, stronger, faster teams, especially the annual Yankee contingent, my impression was "We're small, but we're slow". Graduating Pedey, Bradley, Mookie, Beni, Nava et al, reenforced the belief that we eschewed size. Size matters ... or so I've been told. www.mlb.com/video/2020-draft-ed-howard-ss?t=mlb-draft
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 15, 2020 23:25:13 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2020 6:40:21 GMT -5
I don't know that they've eschewed size as much as they just keep finding value in short players ignored by other teams. If Benintendi was 6'1" there's no question he would've been a top 3 pick. But they've never been beholden to it: Bogaerts is tall, Moncada is a linebacker, Casas is basically Kevin McHale in a baseball jersey.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,003
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Post by jimoh on May 16, 2020 6:59:35 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel just tweeted out that MLB's memo regarding the draft stated that for UFAs: "essentially, clubs cannot offer UFA any terms or benefits that they don’t offer drafted players, like school tuition & other standard programs, gear, or expenses." I think any offer of increased minor league salary, etc., would be skirting the rules and would be punishable. I doubt the Red Sox would even try it given the IFA package deal punishments from a few years ago. ADD: Further from McDaniel: "specific things readers have brought up that clubs could use to work around UFA rules are specifically mentioned as outlawed: promises to draft/sign teammates or siblings, gifts to family/agent, higher than a club’s standard MILB salaries, promises about future roster status." Are there limits to what they can offer for college tuition? Can they not offer college room and board? My UNC-Chapel Hill has out-of-state tuition of $36k and room and board of 11.5k. At Holy Cross (for example), tuition is 55,800 and room and board is 15.5. Can they offer 220k for four years of HC tuition?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 16, 2020 22:25:54 GMT -5
In my (relatively uneducated) opinion, here is the short list of guys I'd be targeting at 17: Mick Abel Pete Crow-Armstrong Tyler Soderstrom (he's from right down the street from me so that'd be awesome) Austin Wells Garrett Mitchell Robert Hassell
Guys I'm sorta out on: Patrick Bailey: With the league moving towards automated strike zones I'm just not that enthused about defense-first catchers Garrett Crochet: Injury stuff, bullpen likelihood concerns me Ed Howard: Just doesn't excite me, not 100% sure why.
Any of the college starters that are typically in that range (Wilcox, Cevalli, etc.) I'd be okay with
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 17, 2020 19:25:27 GMT -5
I’m a bit different Howard would excite me more than Peter Crow Armstrong.
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Post by rismith on May 18, 2020 7:57:46 GMT -5
I like Howard as well. Also, Bitsko. With both the question becomes how does the signing amount impact our pool. With only 5 picks and one lost...it will be a game in and of itself.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2020 16:33:20 GMT -5
I don't know that they've eschewed size as much as they just keep finding value in short players ignored by other teams. If Benintendi was 6'1" there's no question he would've been a top 3 pick. But they've never been beholden to it: Bogaerts is tall, Moncada is a linebacker, Casas is basically Kevin McHale in a baseball jersey. Yeah, I think the point is less who they've graduated and more where they're getting these guys. Of those sarasoxer lists: Pedroia: Second-round pick who wouldn't have been available if he were 4 inches taller. Bradley: Honestly, I've never thought of him as short. Do people think of him as short? Betts: Fifth-round pick. Benintendi: 7th pick overall but as Dunne said, he's probably not there at 7 if he's taller. Nava: Contract purchased for $1 from an indy league team at age 24. I think the point here is that a good scouting operation is going to see past things like height and get the best players possible. The first-rounders go in the first round and always will. But maximizing later picks, IFA bonus money, and yes, even $1 purchases from Indy ball requires evaluating the player in all ways and not getting hung up on one thing like height and letting that color the full evaluation of a player. It's not like every small guy they've signed has panned out, or that they place less value on height than other teams either. As we all know, major leaguers come in all shapes and sizes! ![](https://s.hdnux.com/photos/66/65/50/14375433/3/940x0.jpg)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 19, 2020 3:46:51 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 20, 2020 18:04:55 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on May 20, 2020 23:37:02 GMT -5
Former Bruins defenseman Nick Boynton played 11 years of NHL hockey with type 1 diabetes without issue. I'd honestly be more concerned with his power output.
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Post by texs31 on May 21, 2020 8:29:21 GMT -5
How bad is the power though? Even if he ends up with below avg power, aren't you still talking a CF who can hit (60 Hit tool per MLB.com), run (70 speed) and play D (50 glove, 60 arm)? As a bigger guy, the speed might not last as long but when you're talking #17, isn't that still pretty darn good?
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Post by ramireja on May 21, 2020 11:53:03 GMT -5
I've been taking a peek at the 4 top HS OFers in this class (Veen, Hendrick, Hassell, Crow-Armstrong) with the assumption that 1 or 2 will be available at #17. At this point, its pretty safe to assume Veen won't be there (and if he is, its likely because he's unsignable at our slot value). Hendrick and Hassell are also starting to go off the board before #17 in recent mocks, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if one of those two is available at #17 given that I think there could be surprise college signings to save money on underslot deals before our pick. If so, I'm dreaming on Hassell and honestly would pass on Hendrick. However, if all three of those guys are unavailable, I've warmed up recently on Pete Crow-Armstrong. I think he's often viewed as the fourth guy in this quartet because of a leaner frame with less power projection than the other three (certainly compared to Hendrick and Veen). That said, he projects as the best defender: a potential plus CFer with speed, instincts, and a strong arm (up to 93 mph). His speed and instincts also project him as an asset on the basepaths. His hit tool and approach also compare favorably or on par with the other three. So what gives? Why is he consistently the 4th OFer to go in mock drafts? Again, I think it relates to his power projection, but I think it would be foolish to write him off as a slap hitter with below average power. Fangraphs describes him as having "sneaky power," MLB Pipeline notes "he's stronger than some people think and there should be pop in the future, with some of that strength and power showing up before things were shut down," and finally Perfect Game has a recorded exit velocity of 99mph (98th percentile) off his bat and also notes "middle to opposite field approach but has the ability to turn on balls and drive them with plus pop that he has shown in games." To me, these reports suggest he's a guy more likely to get the most out of his average raw power, rather than a guy with considerable raw power who can't tap into it in games (e.g., Garrett Mitchell). If Crow-Armstrong checks the boxes for hit tool, speed, fielding at an elite position, arm strength, and develops into average game power....thats a hell of a player. I like the floor more than Hendrick and feel like his ceiling might be underrated.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 21, 2020 13:40:07 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 21, 2020 19:17:56 GMT -5
I've been taking a peek at the 4 top HS OFers in this class (Veen, Hendrick, Hassell, Crow-Armstrong) with the assumption that 1 or 2 will be available at #17. At this point, its pretty safe to assume Veen won't be there (and if he is, its likely because he's unsignable at our slot value). Hendrick and Hassell are also starting to go off the board before #17 in recent mocks, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if one of those two is available at #17 given that I think there could be surprise college signings to save money on underslot deals before our pick. If so, I'm dreaming on Hassell and honestly would pass on Hendrick. However, if all three of those guys are unavailable, I've warmed up recently on Pete Crow-Armstrong. I think he's often viewed as the fourth guy in this quartet because of a leaner frame with less power projection than the other three (certainly compared to Hendrick and Veen). That said, he projects as the best defender: a potential plus CFer with speed, instincts, and a strong arm (up to 93 mph). His speed and instincts also project him as an asset on the basepaths. His hit tool and approach also compare favorably or on par with the other three. So what gives? Why is he consistently the 4th OFer to go in mock drafts? Again, I think it relates to his power projection, but I think it would be foolish to write him off as a slap hitter with below average power. Fangraphs describes him as having "sneaky power," MLB Pipeline notes "he's stronger than some people think and there should be pop in the future, with some of that strength and power showing up before things were shut down," and finally Perfect Game has a recorded exit velocity of 99mph (98th percentile) off his bat and also notes "middle to opposite field approach but has the ability to turn on balls and drive them with plus pop that he has shown in games." To me, these reports suggest he's a guy more likely to get the most out of his average raw power, rather than a guy with considerable raw power who can't tap into it in games (e.g., Garrett Mitchell). If Crow-Armstrong checks the boxes for hit tool, speed, fielding at an elite position, arm strength, and develops into average game power....thats a hell of a player. I like the floor more than Hendrick and feel like his ceiling might be underrated. Good breakdown. As someone who has been vocal about being lukewarm on PCA my main issue is that for him to profile as a everyday CF the hit tool needs to play. I know that he gets good reviews on his hit tool but it needs to play or he'll end up more like Mickey Moniak rather than an impact prospect. I'd welcome him but I'm looking for more impact with that pick. Lets hope we get lucky and get one of the good ones.
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Post by tyler on May 21, 2020 21:06:12 GMT -5
Jarred Kelley is someone I’m really starting to wonder about. If Abel and Hassell are gone....this guy has a super build right now, two plus plus pitches that he locates...if his hook can get the average he’s a number 2 guy...and PCA and Mitchell, how many speedy center fielders without power do the Red Sox need? I know you don’t draft for need but...I just don’t want trade the world or spend to the moon for out next ace, like we had to do in the past.
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Post by borisman on May 22, 2020 13:26:21 GMT -5
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