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Post by kman22 on May 22, 2020 17:48:10 GMT -5
That pretty much crushes my hopes of Mick Abel.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 24, 2020 10:32:40 GMT -5
Prospect Live has been doing breakdowns of some of the top prospects in the draft, including Garrett Crochet ( link) and Pete Crow-Armstrong ( link). I think they're worth checking out to give a little bit more info than what BA or MLB Pipeline has in their write-ups.
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Post by tyler3 on May 25, 2020 12:07:56 GMT -5
It seems that many teams such as the Padres are liking Hassell over Hendrick now. More mocks are starting to reflect that. I wonder if given his age at the draft (19) and the feeling that teams will go conservative early, I wonder if Hendrick might drop to the Red Sox. Pipe dream guys?
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 26, 2020 7:53:31 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2020 8:31:02 GMT -5
Y'know, I really don't think Chaim Bloom is going to have that much of an effect on what they do this year. Consider that he was hired in late October and has had s-storm after s-storm to deal with, that he probably hasn't seen anyone this spring, and that the Red Sox amateur scouting apparatus is, more or less, still the same (Paul Toboni is the director amateur scouting now that Mike Rikard has moved up to VP of Scouting, but the band is still together essentially - they've only changed a crosschecker spot and a couple of area scouts, and the crosschecker (Chris Mears) and one of the two area scouts (Reed Gragnani) that were replaced just moved over to player dev, so they're still around). As for Bloom, it doesn't look like he touched amateur scouting until he became VP of Baseball Ops, so other than, perhaps, a little but of direction in terms of overall philosophy, and particularly given the truncated spring season, I don't think we'll see his influence until next year all that much.
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 26, 2020 8:36:29 GMT -5
I would be ecstatic in this scenario. I think the strength in this class is college pitching, so going with prep profile like Abel and then focusing on some college pitching with the next three picks would excite me. One name in particular would be Abel's brother Kevin, who had an incredible post season in Oregon State's last championship run, but then had TJ last spring. Might help the sign-ability of each in that scenario.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2020 8:39:16 GMT -5
1) Believe it or not, they're not related. Kevin Abel is from San Diego. Completely understand how one might think they are though given that Mick is from Oregon and committed to OSU!
2) Is Kevin Abel expected to sign? I can't imagine he would - he'd only be a junior next year thanks to a medical redshirt.
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 26, 2020 8:47:06 GMT -5
Hahaha, they aren't related? Well I could have sworn I read that in a blurb somewhere along the line, but obvi not and jsut assumed. I guess that was my theory where Kevin would be more apt to sign, if they signed his fellow surname, but alas it was a crappy theory built on lies.
I'll take a lap.
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Post by tyler3 on May 26, 2020 9:43:20 GMT -5
If Bitsko is as hot as Kiley says due to the new video, then the chances of Abel (or Bitsko) being there at 17 seems to have dramatically improved. Hassell now seems a pipe dream and old Mitchell keeps falling. Do guys have a preference between Abel (risky projection to dream on) or Mitchell (one extremely risky swing change away from center fielder of the future)?
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Post by borisman on May 26, 2020 11:39:46 GMT -5
I think I would flip a coin.
Mitchell: for such a big guy he shows only glimpses of power. Where is the power, Garrett? He is a solid CF so that is a plus. I don't see a middle of the order bat but rather a 2 hitter.
Abel: could be a top of the rotation starter. Should fill out, which he needs, to sustain velocity later into games. The lack of spring ball really throws a wrench into whether to take a HS arm over a proven CF prospect. It could also be a blessing as with a strong spring Abel could have possibly been a top 10 pick so you could be picking a Groome-type talent at 17.
I would definitely flip a coin.
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Post by kman22 on May 26, 2020 12:10:42 GMT -5
I think I would flip a coin. Mitchell: for such a big guy he shows only glimpses of power. Where is the power, Garrett? He is a solid CF so that is a plus. I don't see a middle of the order bat but rather a 2 hitter. Abel: could be a top of the rotation starter. Should fill out, which he needs, to sustain velocity later into games. The lack of spring ball really throws a wrench into whether to take a HS arm over a proven CF prospect. It could also be a blessing as with a strong spring Abel could have possibly been a top 10 pick so you could be picking a Groome-type talent at 17. I would definitely flip a coin. I feel like pitching is always a riskier pick, but a potential top of the rotation starter is so hard to find, that I'd take the chance.
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Post by tyler3 on May 26, 2020 13:40:41 GMT -5
Im taking these answers as head says Mitchell who seems to have the floor of high contact, high base stealing, no doubt center fielder with an arm, and the heart says Abel.....that unicorn Boston just hasn’t been able to produce in a decade plus, the Ace. PS, reports already having Abel putting on weight and hitting 100..he’s def my draft prospect crush.
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Post by borisman on May 26, 2020 14:54:06 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on May 26, 2020 15:14:23 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan101 on May 26, 2020 18:01:23 GMT -5
Lot of smoke with Abel and the Red Sox. Bitsko seems like a possibility too. Would love if Meyer falls to 17 but seems unlikely though Mitchell, Crow Armstrong, Howard and Soderstrom would be good picks. If Red Sox take Abel or Bitsko and they pan out would be a huge game changer not to have to pay 200 plus million for an ace or make a major trade moving top prospects for an ace.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 26, 2020 19:19:37 GMT -5
Im taking these answers as head says Mitchell who seems to have the floor of high contact, high base stealing, no doubt center fielder with an arm, and the heart says Abel.....that unicorn Boston just hasn’t been able to produce in a decade plus, the Ace. PS, reports already having Abel putting on weight and hitting 100..he’s def my draft prospect crush. Honestly, the hitting 100 thing makes me want Abel significantly less. The main reason high school pitching scares me is that it seems like the injury risk is so much higher, and if he's throwing 100 for the sake of throwing 100 I just worry that it's coming at the expense of his arm.
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Post by tyler3 on May 26, 2020 21:10:49 GMT -5
Hey I hear you bout the hitting 100 but I think it was more of an issue of the kid wearing down last summer and the velo slipping to low 90s. Projectable body sometimes just turns out be a skinny tall guy. But looks like he put on muscle, and the fast ball, slider, curve....just everything looked better, all the things you wanted to see this spring (albeit in a shortened bull pen). I guess my point was he looked stronger and sharper with the same easy throwing motion and the stuff tunnels well. Not undersized, no head whack, just every box you could ask for (minus horrible success rate HS RHs). That actually got me thinking, who here knows the last right handed HS kid in the 1st round to really pay off? I can only think of Michael kopech for us....
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Post by soxfan101 on May 26, 2020 21:34:51 GMT -5
Jack Flaherty was a HS arm picked right after Kopech which has paid off. If the Red Sox take Abel and he turns into Jack Flaherty, that’s a major win. I think Abel could make a Flaherty type of pitcher
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 27, 2020 8:04:45 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2020 9:18:19 GMT -5
I feel like pitching is always a riskier pick, but a potential top of the rotation starter is so hard to find, that I'd take the chance. Im taking these answers as head says Mitchell who seems to have the floor of high contact, high base stealing, no doubt center fielder with an arm, and the heart says Abel.....that unicorn Boston just hasn’t been able to produce in a decade plus, the Ace. PS, reports already having Abel putting on weight and hitting 100..he’s def my draft prospect crush. Jack Flaherty was a HS arm picked right after Kopech which has paid off. If the Red Sox take Abel and he turns into Jack Flaherty, that’s a major win. I think Abel could make a Flaherty type of pitcher I hear what you all are saying. From a fan perspective, it'd be nice to draft and develop a starter. But a few thoughts: 1) The organization's ability to develop players at a certain position in the past is not a good reason to take a player at that position now (in a vacuum). Drafting, signing, and developing the best player possible gives you the ability to then later either use that player in the majors at a reduced cost, freeing up money to use to pay players at other positions, and also allows you to trade that asset (or other assets) to acquire the asset you haven't been able to develop. You're never going to have a 26-man homegrown roster, so you're always going to have to acquire talent from outside your player development pipeline. For example, is there a difference on the 2018 roster that having a largely homegrown lineup meant they had the prospect capital to trade for Sale and Kimbrel and the money to sign Price and JDM? Does it matter whether the #1 starter is homegrown as opposed to the right fielder? I would argue it does not. 2) It would indeed be nice to draft a HS pitcher and have him turn into Jack Flaherty. It would also be nice to draft a HS hitter and have him turn into Mike Trout, or draft a college hitter and have him turn into Matt Chapman, or draft a college pitcher and have him turn into Marcus Stroman. All late first-round picks. Talent will be there independent of the demographic. 3) Some research to show how risky each demographic is, just to provide useful context, from sabr.org/research/chances-drafted-baseball-player-making-major-leagues-quantitative-study Demo, # signed in the first rd, # of those who played 3+ years in MLB, Percentage (1996-2011 drafts) HS Pitchers, 162, 55, 34.0% HS Hitters, 180, 76, 42.2% Coll Pitchers, 226, 113, 50.0% Coll Hitters, 156, 95, 60.9%
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Post by tyler3 on May 27, 2020 10:04:00 GMT -5
Chris, That’s a pretty fancy way of saying that you to love Mick Abel
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on May 27, 2020 10:14:52 GMT -5
I would be a bit shocked if Abel is around at 17. My guess is he goes in the 9-14 range.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 27, 2020 10:18:18 GMT -5
Good stuff. In reading through the thread, risk for each of these groups is what came to mind, and SABR answered that question. Given the limited draft this year, risk will have to play a large part in the team's choice. Very few arrows in the quiver so they need to be used wisely.
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Post by borisman on May 27, 2020 10:19:56 GMT -5
Im taking these answers as head says Mitchell who seems to have the floor of high contact, high base stealing, no doubt center fielder with an arm, and the heart says Abel.....that unicorn Boston just hasn’t been able to produce in a decade plus, the Ace. PS, reports already having Abel putting on weight and hitting 100..he’s def my draft prospect crush. Honestly, the hitting 100 thing makes me want Abel significantly less. The main reason high school pitching scares me is that it seems like the injury risk is so much higher, and if he's throwing 100 for the sake of throwing 100 I just worry that it's coming at the expense of his arm. You should have read the article and what the catcher said about Abel. .....former Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. Rutschman told Baseball America that he couldn't believe the pitches he caught came from a high school pitcher, and that "you rarely see an arm that good," adding that Abel's repertoire is "electric" and "smooth." Also this: He's got an easy motion that looks as if he's just getting warmed up when the fastball is coming out of his three-quarters arm slot in the mid-90s. The video clips prove an effortless delivery as well. Yes, HS prospects are the riskiest of all draftees. But some also turn out to be stars and we need to draft and develop some of our own.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 27, 2020 10:23:11 GMT -5
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