2019 End of Year Sox Prospects Rankings and Awards

Yup, that was just a mistake on my part.

You make good points. It would be amazing if we could have a Bogaerts, Mookie, Beni or Devers emerge every year, and we actually did just that, despite traditionally drafting pretty low.

Not even the Braves or Astros are made entirely of young superstars, so we can’t expect them every year. But what the Sox actually do have are those homegrown young stars who the system annually augments, which is what you describe.
Good players with upside, possible stars, will be making their moves in 2021-22-23, like Groome, Mata, Casas for example.

Meanwhile, in 2019, the system effectively augmented the WS Champs with Darwinzon, Taylor, Chavis AND Workman & Marco redux. 2020 could be augmented with the likes of Dalbec, Duran, Chapman, Houck, Feltman. In trading a ton of talent from the minors to get MLB talent, and producing many good players over the last few years, the system has done its job well.

Even as we wait for some extreme talent to move up from the lower levels, AAA and AA have turned out very important players ... who contributed positively in 2018 and 2019, and could be difference makers in 2020.

I guess I see it a bit differently.

I mean, the Astros are now in their 3rd straight post-season. The 2017 World Championship run didn't prevent them from winning 100 plus games the next year and advancing to the ALCS before they were cut down by injuries and a Red Sox team that wasn't going to be stopped, and they're back again.

I have no doubt that the Sox starters were worn down from doing their double duty, but I don't think things should have gone as poorly as it did.

And as far as the farm system goes, the guys being mentioned specifically: Darwinzon, Taylor, Chavis, Workman, and Marco...

Well Workman was awesome. His control was spotty, to be kind, but he was sensational otherwise. Hard to imagine him being anywhere near as good in 2020, but in 2019, he was a rock star in that pen.

Taylor was quite useful and should be a busy reliever in the Sox bullpen going forward. That was a nice little steal for Devin Marrero by Dombrowski. Wished they had more of that.

Darwinzon should have a future - if it's not undermined by his lack of control. Some here might already have him pegged as "elite", but he's definitely a work in progress. We'll see if he winds up as closer or a late inning lefty or a guy who constantly struggles with his control. For now, I'll be bullish on him and see him in the second scenario, an Arthur Rhodes types perhaps?

Chavis - well I like him, but he definitely has holes in his game. I'm not convinced that he can't close some of those holes, but at this point, he's just another 25 - 30 HR guy in a league of 25 - 30 HR guys - if he stays healthy. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up being the Red Sox DH in 2020, which ultimately might be his best position.

Marco Hernandez is a guy who can ping .260 but his OBP and SA won't be much higher than that. Definitely a fungible player, but at this point the Sox need cheap, so he'll probably replace Holt on the roster but won't be anywhere near as good (he won't have an OBP around .350 - that's for sure).

Dalbec is somebody that I think winds up at 1b in 2020. With Dombrowski gone, I think he's more likely to stay with the Red Sox. He's going to be a low BA, decent OBP guy who will hit 30 plus HRs. He could be a .180 hitter, but I do think he'll be much better than that - more like .230ish, but with his walks. So yes, I think he'll impact 2020 in a similar way to how Chavis impacted 2019.

The others you mentioned: Houck probably winds up in the pen, but they really need a starting pitcher now to replace Porcello, which Mata isn't yet. I think Mata winds up a back-end starter which has value (like Felix Doubront in 2013), but I don't think he winds up a #2/#3 starter on a good team.

Chatham will either be a second division regular or a backup on a playoff team. Not much power there nor a great OBP.

Feltman is a big question mark at this point. And Duran might be nothing more than a #4 outfielder, not good enough to really replace JBJ.

So what you're left with is very little in the way of impact core players. The Red Sox DO have one in the lower minors in Tristan Casas. I do think he'll be a middle of the order core player at 1b.

But that's about it. I like Jimenez, but it's still a little too early to say "He's our future CF", although he likely is, but he needs to increase his plate discipline or else he'll wind up a #4 outfielder.

The overlying point is that there is little in the way of impact players. Augmentation players are great to have - but let's be real here - the Sox had very little as far as starting pitching went in 2019, but at some point sooner than later they will need to replenish their core. That's what other teams who are getting ahead are doing and the Sox have to find a way to get back to it or else you'll find you have Devers, Benintendi and Xander and not much more.

And of course, the biggest reason, this has happened, was the change in draft rules after 2011.

What pitcher the Rays developed was good this year? Chirinos, I guess? Diego Castillo. It's not a long list though.

Right, but that's an entirely different thing and the Red Sox just fired the person in charge of identifying and acquiring major-league talent. "Why do the Rays draft and develop pitchers better than the Red Sox" is wrong, because they don't. "Why do the Rays get better production out of pitching talent that seemed marginal, is it talent identification or coaching or a combination of the two" is 100% fair. But I think the distinction between the two is important, especially in the context of this thread which is about drafting and minor league development and being awarded for such.

From BA's end of year league top 20s:

International League: none
Eastern League: Mata (7th), Dalbec (8th), Durran (13th)
Carolina League: Durran (7th), Mata (8th)
South Atlantic League: Casas (4th)
New York-Penn League: G. Jimenez (4th), A. Ramirez (18th)