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Post by Addam603 on Oct 9, 2019 13:24:36 GMT -5
Red Sox (12) Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM Sandy Leon – $2.8MM Chris Owings – $3.0MM Mookie Betts – $27.7MM Brandon Workman – $3.4MM Steven Wright – $1.5MM Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM Matt Barnes – $3.0MM Heath Hembree – $1.6MM Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM Marco Hernandez – $700K Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 9, 2019 13:27:02 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM Sandy Leon – $2.8MM Chris Owings – $3.0MM Mookie Betts – $27.7MM Brandon Workman – $3.4MM Steven Wright – $1.5MM Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM Matt Barnes – $3.0MM Heath Hembree – $1.6MM Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM Marco Hernandez – $700K Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 9, 2019 13:59:44 GMT -5
Wins and saves are a big consideration in arbitration awards, so I wonder if Workman (10 Ws, 16 saves) will get a bigger raise than that.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 10, 2019 13:51:07 GMT -5
Looks like the month Brasier spent in the minors was just enough time to avoid Super Two status.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 10, 2019 15:28:10 GMT -5
Owings and Gorkys are clear non-tender candidates, right? Right??
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 10, 2019 15:35:04 GMT -5
Almost certainly will be. Leon and Wright are also candidates.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 10, 2019 18:17:23 GMT -5
Looks like the month Brasier spent in the minors was just enough time to avoid Super Two status. I've got Brasier at 149 days this year. That would put him at 2.103 if my math is right.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 19, 2019 12:20:13 GMT -5
Wins and saves are a big consideration in arbitration awards, so I wonder if Workman (10 Ws, 16 saves) will get a bigger raise than that. I have him at $5 million for that reason. I'll post my guesstimates here. It's worth noting that, before adding any of the arb eligibles, or projecting for any additional transactions or players brought in from the minors, the team is at a taxable $133,933,330. That's for the 7 players with set salaries in 2020, including Pedroia. Do some arithmetic for the projected arb totals and you'll see that there isn't much headroom below the first threshold.
I've attached the image from the arb tab that was added to my salary spreadsheet. I didn't use the estimates from Trade Rumors, so it's a bit different. Instead, I examined what the players have seen in arbitration up to now, and ballparked it from those numbers which you'll see on the image. The yellow shaded is the projected arb figure for 2020. The previous figures, if there are any, are for previous arb years as labeled above. Gorkys Hernandez and Chris Owings were left off, but Centeno was added. Leon is on here, but I could easily see him being jettisoned for the former. Marco Hernandez and Hembree are likely too high, but Betts and Benintendi may be too low. All in all, the total should be close, and that comes in at $67 million. Added to the figure above, and the team salary already comes in at $200 million. Like I said, not much headroom.
Spreadsheet has been updated to show the release of Wright. The estimated total for arbitration costs is $65.5M: (click to expand):
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 19, 2019 15:49:51 GMT -5
I have him at $5 million for that reason. I'll post my guesstimates here. It's worth noting that, before adding any of the arb eligibles, or projecting for any additional transactions or players brought in from the minors, the team is at a taxable $133,933,330. That's for the 7 players with set salaries in 2020, including Pedroia. Do some arithmetic for the projected arb totals and you'll see that there isn't much headroom below the first threshold.
I've attached the image from the arb tab that was added to my salary spreadsheet. I didn't use the estimates from Trade Rumors, so it's a bit different. Instead, I examined what the players have seen in arbitration up to now, and ballparked it from those numbers which you'll see on the image. The yellow shaded is the projected arb figure for 2020. The previous figures, if there are any, are for previous arb years as labeled above. Gorkys Hernandez and Chris Owings were left off, but Centeno was added. Leon is on here, but I could easily see him being jettisoned for the former. Marco Hernandez and Hembree are likely too high, but Betts and Benintendi may be too low. All in all, the total should be close, and that comes in at $67 million. Added to the figure above, and the team salary already comes in at $200 million. Like I said, not much headroom.
Spreadsheet has been updated to show the release of Wright. The estimated total for arbitration costs is $65.5M: (click to expand): According to Spotrac the Sox have about $56.5 million left to stay under the $208 number before arbitration. This assumes a JD opt-in, I'm guessing you are not factoring him in yet.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 19, 2019 18:32:21 GMT -5
I'll check it out send see where the difference is. Thanks. ... A quick glance shows a few differences right away. The salary totals I have for players on the books are identical to Spotrac's, but they include the likely benefits for those on the 40-man roster, and they have an estimate for the minor league bus riders as well. The totals for those come to $17.5M. They do not include any arbitration estimates in their numbers, which is why they show $56.5M or so available. So, I'm estimating arb costs which I put at $65.5M. If we compare to what they see as tax space, the team is already over by right around $9M if the arb costs are anywhere near accurate.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 11:30:41 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 11:33:14 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 10, 2020 11:57:09 GMT -5
Random thought - who pays for the arbitration proceeding? (E.g. MLB, MLB and MLBPA, team, team & player)
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 12:56:56 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 13:02:09 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 13:14:45 GMT -5
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Post by levi on Jan 10, 2020 13:19:54 GMT -5
Anyone think this makes Betts more attractive to other teams? Seems like he could have received at least $2-4m more...
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 10, 2020 13:55:09 GMT -5
Anyone think this makes Betts more attractive to other teams? Seems like he could have received at least $2-4m more... Projection wasn’t that much higher. I think if anything I’m glad to see it handled amicably (retention standpoint).
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Post by incandenza on Jan 10, 2020 14:50:11 GMT -5
Wins and saves are a big consideration in arbitration awards, so I wonder if Workman (10 Ws, 16 saves) will get a bigger raise than that. Has anyone tried to get the arbitration awards to align with, you know, the criteria by which teams actually evaluate players these days? I mean, Moneyball was written almost a generation ago...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2020 14:51:02 GMT -5
Results versus three different projections: Name FG MLBTR Speier Ave Actual Betts $27.50 $27.70 $30.00 $28.40 $27.00 Bradley $11.50 $11.00 $10.00 $10.83 $11.00 Rodrig. $9.00 $9.50 $8.00 $8.83 TBD Benint. $4.25 $4.90 $3.50 $4.22 TBD Workman $3.25 $3.40 $3.50 $3.38 $3.50 Barnes $3.00 $3.00 $2.50 $2.83 $3.10 Hembree $1.50 $1.60 $1.80 $1.63 $1.61 Hembree and JBJ signed for the median projection, which was MLBTR's. Workman signed for the highest figure and Barnes for a bit above it, in both case $100K above MLBTR.
Mookie signed for a bit below the lowest projection, $700K below the otherwise very accurate MLBTR calculations. He's singlehandedly bringing in the group below the aggregate projection. I think that's good news.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 10, 2020 15:12:51 GMT -5
Wins and saves are a big consideration in arbitration awards, so I wonder if Workman (10 Ws, 16 saves) will get a bigger raise than that. Has anyone tried to get the arbitration awards to align with, you know, the criteria by which teams actually evaluate players these days? I mean, Moneyball was written almost a generation ago... No, and you'd have to think any push there is going to have to come from the players, right? Pitchers don't get wins like they used to, and better bullpen management is going to result in less-impressive save numbers. Crazy to think about wins and saves being more spread out being responsible for pushing salaries down.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 10, 2020 18:35:45 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 10, 2020 19:52:28 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 10, 2020 20:25:38 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 10, 2020 20:46:08 GMT -5
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