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A Mookie Betts Trade Return
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 9, 2019 16:47:03 GMT -5
No one knows how certain players will age, but so much of Betts value is in being a 5 tool player. You have to worry about decline when your talking 10 plus year contracts.I don't understand why Mookie's athleticism is held against him so much when all the really bad contracts are Price Fielder and Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis. Look at how long Ichiro held up, and Betts is basically the same guy except a much better all around hitter. Hell, Brett Gardner is still a good player and he was never remotely in Mookie's class. I guess the idea is that small guys don't age well, but I think that's actually a middle infielder thing, and that's just where most of the smaller guys end up playing. As an outfielder, I think being smaller probably just means less weight on your knees and your back and less momentum for when you crash into a wall or make a diving catch. Predicting the second half of a player's career is one of the hardest things to do and I make no definitive claims about Mookie's future, but don't think you can convince me that anyone besides maybe Trout has significantly better odds of aging well than Betts does. Andrew McCutchen was like Mookie-lite when he was younger. He averaged 5.9 fWAR from ages 22-28 (including a 3 year run of 7.6) and then 2.2 from 29-32. I hope Mookie doesn't follow the same path, but that's the most recent comp I can think of. To be fair, McCutchen was never close to as good defensively.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 10, 2019 9:56:12 GMT -5
No one knows how certain players will age, but so much of Betts value is in being a 5 tool player. You have to worry about decline when your talking 10 plus year contracts.I don't understand why Mookie's athleticism is held against him so much when all the really bad contracts are Price Fielder and Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis. Look at how long Ichiro held up, and Betts is basically the same guy except a much better all around hitter. Hell, Brett Gardner is still a good player and he was never remotely in Mookie's class. I guess the idea is that small guys don't age well, but I think that's actually a middle infielder thing, and that's just where most of the smaller guys end up playing. As an outfielder, I think being smaller probably just means less weight on your knees and your back and less momentum for when you crash into a wall or make a diving catch. Predicting the second half of a player's career is one of the hardest things to do and I make no definitive claims about Mookie's future, but don't think you can convince me that anyone besides maybe Trout has significantly better odds of aging well than Betts does. I definitely agree re: the middle infield thing, especially 2b. Although, Craig Biggio was a relatively small guy, who held up at C and 2b, so who knows? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not remotely wedded to the idea that Mookie goes off a cliff at 30. Hell, look at Hank Aaron. He wasn’t much bigger than Mookie, and he played forever. My main concern with Mookie is the reliance on pull-side power. Tbh, he might be atypical there too, in that a lot of his bat speed is tied up in quick wrists/hands and his twitchy athleticism, not strength. He may very well maintain his bat speed better than some of the sluggers (Howard, Davis, etc) who see rapid declines once they lose a little bat speed. But yeah, Ichiro might be a reasonable comp based on size, position, dependence on athleticism/quick hands, and he was a superb player (All-Star caliber, 4-7 wins/yr) right up until he was 38. So a 10- or even 12-year deal for Mookie, especially if his hitting skills are adaptable, might have no “down” phase at all. In fairness, he’s averaged 7.1 fWAR per season over his five full seasons, making him a pretty solid bet for the best non-Mike-Trout player in baseball. If he kept that up even for 4 years, at $35M AAV you’re still talking nearly $150M in excess value. So I think it’s reasonable to figure his long-term contract could very well come out ahead, possibly quite a bit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2019 9:56:20 GMT -5
While certainly not a perfect example Carl Crawford was a crazy athletic player, was worth four plus bwar for 6/7 years, including 5 bwar and 7 bwar in his age 27 and 28 seasons. He was worth 3.8 bwar total from age 29 to 34. He went from a very good fielder to not a good fielder almost overnight. I bring him up because his athletic ability was a big reason Theo signed him, claiming it would help him age well. Unfortunately the data he used was from the PED era and there seems to be a huge difference in how players perform in their 30's now.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 10, 2019 10:15:12 GMT -5
If Sox believe in Sale and Eovaldi--and it appears they can be under the cap- then the Sox got to keep Mookie. If you end up eventually losing him for a 4th round pick-- too bad (as long as you feel the team is contending with realistic shot to win it all.). If they feel they have a contending team they should "go for it" unless in a trade they are getting an amazing deal. I think if you trade him you can get a good deal for him though. I don't agree with those who voted for options 4 and 5 unless option 4 is that you get some terrific cost controleld guys or if option 5 you think a complete rebuild in order and you want JDM (and much of the team) gone too.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Nov 10, 2019 17:02:11 GMT -5
Trade Betts. In part because he's playing a cat-and-mouse game as to signing thus far. That tells me he wants a combo of maximum dollars or, perhaps, a better organization and fit.
It frees up a bunch of money. One player does not make a team. It gets Boston under the threshold, which helps in the future. The assets Boston gets - along with the salary relief - has value. Would I have preferred Betts over Sale, Eovaldi? Sure. But Betts wouldn't pull the trigger. So a team has to move on with what it's landscape presently looks like. Hate to lose him. Maybe Boston could figure out a way to re-sign him if he does become a free agent, but I doubt it.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 11, 2019 11:47:17 GMT -5
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Nov 11, 2019 19:25:40 GMT -5
I would call the braves up and see if we could pry mike soroka and one of their pitching prospects, touki toussaint or a lower level guy with very high upside. I doubt you’ll get what you’d want for him because of the contract issues, but 2 young pitchers with a solid chance to contribute would be my goal
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 11, 2019 20:50:44 GMT -5
The more I look at teams that match up well on a Mookie deal the one team that stands out is the Padres. They are ready to take the next step to compete in the NL and their GM may be under more pressure. They have a top farm system w pitching and cheap controllable OFers. I can see a deal of Mookie for Luis Urias (cheap 2B and former top prospect), one of their OFers (Margot or Renfroe), and a pitcher like Quantrill or another prospect. I would like a deal like this. Realistic?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2019 10:08:11 GMT -5
FWIW, I think the Padres are looking to make some big splashes in the offseason, as this blurb on mlbtraderumors.com indicates:
Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result.
Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.”
That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers.
We're looking at Atlanta and the Dodgers as strong Mookie possibilities but the Padres must be considered as well, and they certainly have an interesting farm system.
As we know the Padres have been all over the map with what they do. One minute they're buying stars, then that doesn't work and then they're dumping them and growing their system and before that wave even matures they're looking to get stars again.
With the Padres, between Machado and Tatis, they don't really have a need for Lindor in a deal, and they don't necessarily need Bryant, who's more of a 3b than an OF. They'd most likely be seeking OF help in a deal so you have to think they'd be a serious player for Mookie.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 12, 2019 11:40:31 GMT -5
FWIW, I think the Padres are looking to make some big splashes in the offseason, as this blurb on mlbtraderumors.com indicates: Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result. Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.” That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers. We're looking at Atlanta and the Dodgers as strong Mookie possibilities but the Padres must be considered as well, and they certainly have an interesting farm system. As we know the Padres have been all over the map with what they do. One minute they're buying stars, then that doesn't work and then they're dumping them and growing their system and before that wave even matures they're looking to get stars again. With the Padres, between Machado and Tatis, they don't really have a need for Lindor in a deal, and they don't necessarily need Bryant, who's more of a 3b than an OF. They'd most likely be seeking OF help in a deal so you have to think they'd be a serious player for Mookie. GORE.....and I don't mean AL!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2019 11:51:33 GMT -5
FWIW, I think the Padres are looking to make some big splashes in the offseason, as this blurb on mlbtraderumors.com indicates: Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result. Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.” That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers. We're looking at Atlanta and the Dodgers as strong Mookie possibilities but the Padres must be considered as well, and they certainly have an interesting farm system. As we know the Padres have been all over the map with what they do. One minute they're buying stars, then that doesn't work and then they're dumping them and growing their system and before that wave even matures they're looking to get stars again. With the Padres, between Machado and Tatis, they don't really have a need for Lindor in a deal, and they don't necessarily need Bryant, who's more of a 3b than an OF. They'd most likely be seeking OF help in a deal so you have to think they'd be a serious player for Mookie. GORE.....and I don't mean AL! Don't think the Padres are that crazy, but I like the way you're thinking! That kid is a potential top of the rotation type starter. I don't think the Padres would include him in a package for Betts, but you'd have to ask if you're the Red Sox. They certainly haven't had a pitching prospect the caliber of him in quite awhile.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 12, 2019 12:08:37 GMT -5
Time to get Anderson Espinoza back as a throw in.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2019 12:22:32 GMT -5
Time to get Anderson Espinoza back as a throw in. If we make a deal with them he's the 4th piece in any deal for me. Call it the you lied about Pomeranz and demanded Logan Allen as the 4th piece in the Kimbrel trade cost.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2019 12:24:57 GMT -5
Best case is you get all three of those teams interested to some degree and use it to up the cost.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 12, 2019 12:34:31 GMT -5
I doubt the Padres would trade Gore straight up for Mookie, let alone in a package. Wishful thinking though. I do like the idea of getting Margot back to replace JBJ.
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Post by jdb on Nov 12, 2019 14:00:21 GMT -5
I don’t think they’d be a good fit for Betts bc he is going to market. Maybe they would give up a top starter for Benny, would want JBJ in CF in that park or would want a Price for their young rotation?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2019 14:33:28 GMT -5
A.J. Preller seems ripe to do something stupid, like his job is likely on the line. Realistically Betts shouldn't be a target unless that owner is going to push payroll close to 70% of revenue. Yet I can see it, espically because he needs to win next year. Thinking if it works out he uses that very good farm system to dump Hosmer and Meyer to sign Betts. If it doesn't he deals him at the deadline to get back a lot of what he lost.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Nov 12, 2019 17:13:02 GMT -5
A.J. Preller seems ripe to do something stupid, like his job is likely on the line. Realistically Betts shouldn't be a target unless that owner is going to push payroll close to 70% of revenue. Yet I can see it, espically because he needs to win next year. Thinking if it works out he uses that very good farm system to dump Hosmer and Meyer to sign Betts. If it doesn't he deals him at the deadline to get back a lot of what he lost. I think you're spot on with Will Myers being attached to prospects. Aside from some veteran starting pitching, the Padres should be looking to add some elite MLB players to Machado, Hosmer, Tatis and lengthen that lineup. Freeing up a Myers' contract would help them in adding talent. Myers is schedule to start making $20m next year and every year through 2022 with a $1m buyout for 2023. Although because of extremely low salaries during the first three years of his contract, Myers AAV is $14m. Could Bloom move Myers if Myers was attached to prospects in a Betts trade? Not sure if Bloom was involved but I seem to recall the Rays having made multi-team, multi-player trades in the past. Time to use that creativity and see if they can pick up some of those prospects and reduce payroll at the same time.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 12, 2019 17:34:45 GMT -5
A.J. Preller seems ripe to do something stupid, like his job is likely on the line. Realistically Betts shouldn't be a target unless that owner is going to push payroll close to 70% of revenue. Yet I can see it, espically because he needs to win next year. Thinking if it works out he uses that very good farm system to dump Hosmer and Meyer to sign Betts. If it doesn't he deals him at the deadline to get back a lot of what he lost. Patiño (they get to keep Gore), Edwards, Renfroe (or even Myers if it takes salary relief), and Espinoza. It’s an overpay without the salary relief, but SD could make a run with Mookie. Sox really can’t risk much less from a PR standpoint. Edit: your inclusion of Workman moving Mookie to a contender to boost return might apply. Definitely possible they’d be selling high, although he could bring a lot at the deadline if he’s pitching close to how he did this past year.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 12, 2019 22:30:31 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 12, 2019 22:51:39 GMT -5
No that’s not a joke article.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2019 23:10:53 GMT -5
No that’s not a joke article. Maybe the Red Sox can throw Babe Ruth into the deal as well. Yankees send two guys who are basically spare parts for them and not their best prospects for Betts. Sounds fair (to Harry Frazee anyways). Sheesh.
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Nov 13, 2019 0:51:09 GMT -5
What about a three-way deal that nets us a top reliever who is cheap and under contract for several more seasons (and preferably has closing experience) plus a decent prospect? The perfect candidate would have been Felipe Vazquez until he ran into major legal trouble, but I'm talking about someone like that. Our bullpen would become a strength of the team this year, plus we'd have our replacement for Workman's possible departure after next year.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2019 9:36:42 GMT -5
Pete Abe does not do it for me
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2019 10:10:35 GMT -5
Absurdity of that suggestion aside, do people not understand that Clint Frazier is not good? You all saw his defense, but he hit .247/.305/.433 for Scranton playing with a baseball that carried out of the park when you breathed on it heavy. For comparison's sake, Sam Travis hit .275/.362/.432 with his 1985 swing and is a better defensive outfielder even though that's not his position.
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