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A Mookie Betts Trade Return
mobaz
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Posts: 2,771
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Post by mobaz on Nov 14, 2019 11:22:06 GMT -5
What baseball player is known for 4 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass. What baseball player is known for 5 body parts? Toe Knee Arm Ass Junior. Terrible joke I heard in the Fenway bleachers as a teenager. Always stuck with me, not the least because one of our crew kept asking "What's the junior?" 🤣🤣🤣 That’s exactly my question...what IS the “junior”? It's a wiener joke.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 14, 2019 11:48:04 GMT -5
🤣🤣🤣 That’s exactly my question...what IS the “junior”? It's a wiener joke. Lol, I figured. Of course it is 🙄. With that setup, how could it be anything else?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 14, 2019 12:31:47 GMT -5
I know people love to hate on Bowden and generally he deserves it but all of those names he mentions as potential seem.... pretty right? Certainly not egregious suggestions.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 14, 2019 14:08:11 GMT -5
I know people love to hate on Bowden and generally he deserves it but all of those names he mentions as potential seem.... pretty right? Certainly not egregious suggestions. I don't think so. I don't know anything about these guys, but the Dodgers package has three top 100 guys rated #33, 75, and 87. If you like those players that seems like good value. Unreal that the Dodgers got Gray and Downs for one year of Puig last year. The Braves package has Waters he's rated #23 overall, no Cardinals prospects are rated top 100. My only complaint is that he didn't look at players on the teams 25 man rosters. I don't think they deal Betts for only a minor league package.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2019 14:44:30 GMT -5
The problem with the Bowden article is that I guarantee you the process went like this: pulled up prospect list, excluded guys he'd heard of as being really good, picked 3 of the best remaining guys. Like, read his rationale for the proposed deals. It's really clear he doesn't know anything about these guys.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on Nov 14, 2019 15:25:41 GMT -5
Am I missing something? There is some interesting analysis here, but after mentioning the luxury tax in the introduction, they don't mention it again. Isn't their analysis of the team in 2021 and after flawed by not taking it account that if they get under 208M for 2020, they can spend almost as much money as they want in 2021 and pay only a 20% tax on the overage, instead of a 50% tax? Have I got that wrong?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 14, 2019 16:52:17 GMT -5
The problem with the Bowden article is that I guarantee you the process went like this: pulled up prospect list, excluded guys he'd heard of as being really good, picked 3 of the best remaining guys. Like, read his rationale for the proposed deals. It's really clear he doesn't know anything about these guys. That's fair. I definitely think the frameworks of those deals with the Braves and Dodgers are super fair, but that could definitely be a broken clock being right twice a day kind of thing.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 18, 2019 11:52:44 GMT -5
Do you understand the huge difference between saying that you absolutely are going to test free agency (Betts) and not saying anything (Goldschmidt)? I'm fairly sure I do, it's why I think you get a little more than the Goldy trade and not twice as much as you should based on talent, age and expected production. The GM is on record saying he made the trade based on the one year. Let's not forget the Cards got Hayward years ago with one year and tried the same thing and he didn't sign an extension. Also why that deal looks very good right now, it wasn't looked at that way when it was made. The D-Backs were smart, going after players who's value were low. www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/5/18128176/arizona-diamondbacks-st-louis-cardinals-paul-goldschmidt-tradeSo if they trade him what do they get? Without hindsight it seems rather crazy to think no team trades a package like that. Oh man Mookie is going to free agency, no way I'm trading a guy demoted to the bullpen, ERA of almost 5 in the NL, declining strikeout rate. Or a former top 50 catching that hit .158 in the majors and was about to be passed by another catcher on the team rankings. Must be the late second round pick or the semi decent other guy. I mean that's way less than the Kimbrel trade. You got more years, yet Betts likely gives you more war and excess value in one year. He's got to be top 3 or top 5 in war projections for next year. I really don't get it, you seem to be arguing we don't get a package as good as Goldy's. Yet that wouldn't be seen as a ton or some great return. That deal only looks that way using Hindsight. Exactly as I said: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/11/15/takeaway-from-meetings-red-sox-are-open-anything/l6guLESkDmy5ZA0vIENt3K/story.html?et_rid=1807433112&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 18, 2019 12:56:34 GMT -5
Joel Sherman was on MLBN today and was talking about the best fit being Betts for Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 18, 2019 14:46:06 GMT -5
What’s the point to move Betts for a teams next level of prospects. What a rip off. To me it’s hard to graduate prospects to the major league level .So now there going to use the excuse it’s a one year rental to rip us off? Too bad your getting a kid at his prime take a chance that you’ll sign him. It’s not a mystery the kind of money he will command at 27.
The odds are against the Sox to acquire a couple of minor leaguers That will blossom. You have to get there best of the best or it’s D.O.A. Just go into the year with him.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,771
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Post by mobaz on Nov 18, 2019 15:05:08 GMT -5
Top prospects for Pedro was 22 years ago today.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 18, 2019 18:52:28 GMT -5
Joel Sherman was on MLBN today and was talking about the best fit being Betts for Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz. I don’t mind a deal like this as long as we can send Price along with him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 18, 2019 19:51:47 GMT -5
Joel Sherman was on MLBN today and was talking about the best fit being Betts for Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz. By even the most conservative estimation of Verdugo's value, the Dodgers would be paying well over $50m for one year of Mookie Betts. I still don't understand why people think they would want to do this.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 18, 2019 21:17:26 GMT -5
Joel Sherman was on MLBN today and was talking about the best fit being Betts for Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz. By even the most conservative estimation of Verdugo's value, the Dodgers would be paying well over $50m for one year of Mookie Betts. I still don't understand why people think they would want to do this. Obviously because they've shown themselves to be stupid by winning 97 games per year since Friedman took over.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 20, 2019 10:55:03 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2019 14:27:58 GMT -5
I'm fairly sure I do, it's why I think you get a little more than the Goldy trade and not twice as much as you should based on talent, age and expected production. The GM is on record saying he made the trade based on the one year. Let's not forget the Cards got Hayward years ago with one year and tried the same thing and he didn't sign an extension. Also why that deal looks very good right now, it wasn't looked at that way when it was made. The D-Backs were smart, going after players who's value were low. www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/5/18128176/arizona-diamondbacks-st-louis-cardinals-paul-goldschmidt-tradeSo if they trade him what do they get? Without hindsight it seems rather crazy to think no team trades a package like that. Oh man Mookie is going to free agency, no way I'm trading a guy demoted to the bullpen, ERA of almost 5 in the NL, declining strikeout rate. Or a former top 50 catching that hit .158 in the majors and was about to be passed by another catcher on the team rankings. Must be the late second round pick or the semi decent other guy. I mean that's way less than the Kimbrel trade. You got more years, yet Betts likely gives you more war and excess value in one year. He's got to be top 3 or top 5 in war projections for next year. I really don't get it, you seem to be arguing we don't get a package as good as Goldy's. Yet that wouldn't be seen as a ton or some great return. That deal only looks that way using Hindsight. Exactly as I said: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/11/15/takeaway-from-meetings-red-sox-are-open-anything/l6guLESkDmy5ZA0vIENt3K/story.html?et_rid=1807433112&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletterWell that kinda goes against what his GM said, but it really doesn't matter. Saying you'll get a little more for Betts than Goldy is already adjusting it because of what Betts has said. If you didn't you'd be talking about getting closer to double what he cost. Betts is four years younger and a much better player. It's why the so called expect are throwing out these packages that are better. Maybe you and Fenway don't agree, but I've yet to see one of these guys propose a deal that was less than a Goldy package. A package some people didn't think was a great return when the deal was made. We'll see who is right if he is traded. Heck Keith Law just talked about them getting two 3 war pitchers for Betts from a team like the Braves.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2019 15:01:41 GMT -5
Well that kinda goes against what his GM said, but it really doesn't matter. Saying you'll get a little more for Betts than Goldy is already adjusting it because of what Betts has said. If you didn't you'd be talking about getting closer to double what he cost. Betts is four years younger and a much better player. It's why the so called expect are throwing out these packages that are better. Maybe you and Fenway don't agree, but I've yet to see one of these guys propose a deal that was less than a Goldy package. A package some people didn't think was a great return when the deal was made. We'll see who is right if he is traded. Heck Keith Law just talked about them getting two 3 war pitchers for Betts from a team like the Braves. I agree because while I don't think that we as Red Sox fans will be thrilled with whatever package they get for Betts (because it signals that the Sox aren't seriously competing for a Championship this year and given that Betts is the best position player the Sox have developed since at least Yaz, whoever headlines the package will fall far short), the Sox should be able to get one prime prospect, a useful player at the big league level, a minor leaguer with upside but question marks, and a lottery ticket you can dream on, but has very little chance of being what you dream of. I hear all the "well, Betts is a $30 million player - and I have to give up talent as well??? - No way" arguments. I guess I just don't buy it. Most teams are not bumping up against the luxury tax so adding one huge player isn't necessarily a deal breaker for them, especially one they can market (yeah I know that's not Mookie's thing, but whoever gets him will market him as he is an intelligent good guy who does have a good personality) and will help sell tickets as the guy who can put them into the post-season or expand their chances of winning should they land him. It tells their city's fanbase that they're going for it. I just don't buy that an owner who has a $150 million payroll just can't take the gamble of getting it to $180 million or whatever. Somebody will take that plunge if given the chance. And again, it's not going to cost a team like the Padres their young fireballing ace from the minors (they'd have to surrender Patino rather than Gore.) We're talking about surrendering somebody in the top 50 or 60 or so, not somebody in the top 20 of all prospects. So we're talking somebody in the top 30 - 60 bracket for prospects, a useful player, perhaps the one Betts is replacing, a prospect with upside (perhaps a pitcher with great stuff - but if only he could harness it) and a lottery ticket (maybe a raw 17 year old with good stats or a promising hit tool).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2019 15:17:20 GMT -5
Sure Betts will cost 30 million, but he's going to likely give you 6 plus bwar to 10 bwar with a chance at 11. Even at 30 million he could have excess value of 30 to 70 million in one year.
I'd also Glady eat money if it meant a much better return.
Some team is going to make a good offer, Betts is just too good for some team not to trade for.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 20, 2019 15:49:22 GMT -5
I think Betts could get a return from LA like Joc Pederson, Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs and Luis Rodriguez.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 20, 2019 16:40:11 GMT -5
Well that kinda goes against what his GM said, but it really doesn't matter. Saying you'll get a little more for Betts than Goldy is already adjusting it because of what Betts has said. If you didn't you'd be talking about getting closer to double what he cost. Betts is four years younger and a much better player. It's why the so called expect are throwing out these packages that are better. Maybe you and Fenway don't agree, but I've yet to see one of these guys propose a deal that was less than a Goldy package. A package some people didn't think was a great return when the deal was made. We'll see who is right if he is traded. Heck Keith Law just talked about them getting two 3 war pitchers for Betts from a team like the Braves. ...Betts is the best position player the Sox have developed since at least Yaz I know this doesn't really matter, but are we sure this is true? Everybody repeats it, but Wade Boggs put up crazy numbers like 7 years in a row when he was in Boston and nobody ever talks about him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2019 16:46:51 GMT -5
...Betts is the best position player the Sox have developed since at least Yaz I know this doesn't really matter, but are we sure this is true? Everybody repeats it, but Wade Boggs put up crazy numbers like 7 years in a row when he was in Boston and nobody ever talks about him. Boggs is often underrated and I grew up a huge Boggs fan, used to calculate his season batting average and his career batting average after every AB because it blew my mind to see a guy hitting .360 something for the season AND .350 something lifetime. I think, all in all, Betts is probably better just because of his all around game. Boggs actually had a good glove. Betts is crazy elite in RF with a ton of range and a cannon for an arm. He has the speed and power that Boggs lacked. His OBP ability isn't up there with Boggs admittedly. Boggs was in a league of his own for awhile with his ability to get 200 hits (240 in 1985!) AND draw 100 walks per year. Except for 1987 he just didn't have the power that Mookie did and wasn't the impact on the bases or in the field (not Boggs' fault - Mookie is a generational defensive RF.) So I think Mookie is the best, but I can't argue much at all about you mentioning Boggs who has been totally underrated, mostly because people can't forgive or forget the image of him on the horse at Yankee Stadium. I never held that against him and I do believe him - that Mrs. Yawkey wanted to re-sign him, but that deal went off the table upon her passing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 21, 2019 3:30:37 GMT -5
Note the word speculation....
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats A lot of national speculation about Betts and the Dodgers the last few days
Sherman: Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz
Feinsand: Joc Pederson, Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz
Bowden: Keibert Ruiz, Jeter Downs and Josiah Grey
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Post by larrycook on Nov 22, 2019 21:33:42 GMT -5
I think Betts could get a return from LA like Joc Pederson, Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs and Luis Rodriguez. Any trade with the dodgers must include may. His stuff is amazing. Better than anybody in our pipeline. I would prefer we not trade a homegrown players, especially Betts! Due to his pending free agent status, he could have a monster season! Ideally the two contracts we need to unload are Martinez and price. If we could somehow get gray from Colorado this offseason, I think he could excel in Fenway.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 22, 2019 21:59:31 GMT -5
I think Betts could get a return from LA like Joc Pederson, Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs and Luis Rodriguez. Any trade with the dodgers must include may. His stuff is amazing. Better than anybody in our pipeline. I would prefer we not trade a homegrown players, especially Betts! Due to his pending free agent status, he could have a monster season! Ideally the two contracts we need to unload are Martinez and price. If we could somehow get gray from Colorado this offseason, I think he could excel in Fenway. I’d love to put something together for Gray. What about a deal centered around Chavis?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 24, 2019 11:17:50 GMT -5
Maybe I've been reading too much philosophy of late, but I believe the following two propositions are independent and compatible:
P1. Marcus Lynn Betts very much wants to get as much money as possible as a free agent a year from now.
P2. Marcus Lynn Betts very much wants to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.
Given P1, you would be a fool to say anything that would suggest the truth of P2. Which is why it doesn't seem to be true.
However, if you apply some basic reasoning, P2 seems likely to be true.
- Betts is very close to a number of his teammates (source: Speier's book)
- The Red Sox, given their current roster strength and their financial resources, project to be one of the handful of most competitive teams in baseball, especially if Betts is a team member
- Boston is widely regarded as one of the best places to play (if not the best) in terms of fan passion, appreciation and knowledge
- Fenway Park is ideally suited for Bett's talents, with its huge RF that he doesn't often hit baseballs towards
- All things being equal, human beings prefer to remain in a situation they like rather than risk a move to an unfamiliar situation
I don't see a reason why they can't re-sign him a year from now.
So the question comes down to trading either Betts or Martinez (along with JBJ) to get under the tax limit. JDM, as I've discussed earlier, is also a player whom you can likely re-sign in a year. (I don't think eating part of Price's contract is viable. Not enough $ saved, and too big a hole opens up. You have to wait a year on the health of all of the Big Hurt Three. Roll the dice on comebacks.)
If you could get a good RF as part of the return for Betts, that may well be the better option. You have about $6M more to spend to upgrade other positions, and you don't have to add a fourth position player to the lineup (in addition to 1B, 2B, and CF). Does that upgrade more than compensate for the 1-year WAR difference between Mookie and JDM? If the OF in question has more than a year of control, that's almost certain.
I'm with those who can't see why the Dodgers would trade Verdugo for Betts, even 1-for-1. He's been a 5.0 bWAR player per 650 PA at ages 22 and 23. You can regress that a lot to the mean and still have a first division starter -- and he has 5 years of control. Getting Verdugo and then signing Betts a year later (one of them plays CF, replacing the stopgap solution) would be an absolute steal. Of course, if Betts leads the Dodgers to their long-elusive WS title, they'll probably think it's worth it, and maybe that's the way they're thinking.
The wild card in this calculus is whether teams value JDM's reputation as a second hitting coach. He has a lot more value as a one-year rental if a team believes he has a chance to permanently change a clubhouse culture regarding hitting preparation and approach, and/or positively influence a young core of position players.
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