|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 11, 2019 1:35:35 GMT -5
Could see Bloom trading Price to SD for Myers and a prospect in a bad contract swap. Myers could potentially play 1B for us. He makes $68.5M the next 3 years but his AAV is only $13.8M. Price’s AAV is $31M, deal makes sense from a financial perspective.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2019 1:36:11 GMT -5
I think I figured out what makes this viable.
You replace Price by bringing back Rick Porcello on a 1-year, make-good, somewhat below-market deal. He has the every-other-year pattern in his favor, so the downgrade in the rotation may be just a win or two.
Just as with trading JDM, the savings in salary allows you to buy enough talent to offset the downgrade at the position. I struggle trying to find a DH replacement for JDM. This path has a built-in replacement solution.
I actually like it better, with the big if that someone has to blow us away with how much of Price's contract they're willing to take on.
Betts Bogaerts Devers Martinez Holt
Benintendi Eric Thames Vazquez Ender Inciarte, etc.
That scores a lot of runs.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2019 2:14:13 GMT -5
I think I figured out what makes this viable.
You replace Price by bringing back Rick Porcello on a 1-year, make-good, somewhat below-market deal. He has the every-other-year pattern in his favor, so the downgrade in the rotation may be just a win or two.
Just as with trading JDM, the savings in salary allows you to buy enough talent to offset the downgrade at the position. I struggle trying to find a DH replacement for JDM. This path has a built-in replacement solution.
I actually like it better, with the big if that someone has to blow us away with how much of Price's contract they're willing to take on.
Betts Bogaerts Devers Martinez Holt
Benintendi Eric Thames Vazquez Ender Inciarte, etc.
That scores a lot of runs.
By blow us away you mean like take the whole thing? Just some spitball numbers but wouldn't Porcello, Holt and Thames cost about 20 million on the low end? Inciarte is at 7.7 million, that's about 28 million, which is about a 14 million savings after dumping Bradley and Price without paying anything. BTW how do we get Inciarte? I'd love that, but wouldn't he still cost a good amount even after a down year?
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 11, 2019 4:40:50 GMT -5
Man, I love how people are jumping on board with the Will Myers idea.
I nailed that idea 2 weeks ago. Twitter is finding out about this idea now. I'm sure Bloom figured it out by the beginning of November. I should take credit for that one, but I don't care. I just like that the idea is out there. Good stuff.
Also, I think the Sox are waiting on the best prospect or prospects out of a Price deal. I think that's what's delaying the trade. They have probably a good idea what they can get, just hoping for maybe a little more. There's competition for pitching this off-season, the Sox are in a good place to trade Price.
The David Price free agent signing will have worked to perfection if the Sox find the right deal.
|
|
|
Post by awall on Dec 11, 2019 12:37:39 GMT -5
If the Sox can move Price and have to add a guy like Beni to get the other team to take on most of Price's salary, I'm all for it. I'd much rather do that and hopefully keep Betts and Martinez than cobble together some lineup that might contend this year if a bunch of things go well for injury-plagued veteran pitchers. i am firmly in the rebuild camp.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2019 14:08:09 GMT -5
If the Sox can move Price and have to add a guy like Beni to get the other team to take on most of Price's salary, I'm all for it. I'd much rather do that and hopefully keep Betts and Martinez than cobble together some lineup that might contend this year if a bunch of things go well for injury-plagued veteran pitchers. i am firmly in the rebuild camp. "Sure, they'd be giving away a 2-4 WAR outfielder, but to make up for it they'd also be giving away a 2-4 WAR pitcher." Am I losing my mind?
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Dec 11, 2019 14:10:43 GMT -5
If the Sox can move Price and have to add a guy like Beni to get the other team to take on most of Price's salary, I'm all for it. Might as well give them E-Rod too... I hear he will make a buck or two in arb next year, and we can't have that. This offseason is the worst.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2019 14:26:19 GMT -5
If the Sox can move Price and have to add a guy like Beni to get the other team to take on most of Price's salary, I'm all for it. I'd much rather do that and hopefully keep Betts and Martinez than cobble together some lineup that might contend this year if a bunch of things go well for injury-plagued veteran pitchers. i am firmly in the rebuild camp. "Sure, they'd be giving away a 2-4 WAR outfielder, but to make up for it they'd also be giving away a 2-4 WAR pitcher." Am I losing my mind? I wouldn't staple Benintendi to Price but there are some articles about how Price isn't wanted by other teams unless the Red Sox attach something of value or pay most of his contract down which defeats the purpose of dealing him if they're hellbent on getting under the 208 million. So I know you're incredulous but it's not like these ideas are coming out of LF. They're in the media at this point. There was an even an executive saying to Tomase that if the Red Sox are willing to deal Betts they should make another team take Price's entire $96 million. It's also been reported by Gammons that Mookie is likely going elsewhere. He could be wrong, but I'm sure he still has his sources within the organization. This isn't about a bunch of Red Sox fans WANTING to shred this team apart. I would think most of us would prefer that the Sox add a couple of good starters, add a couple of bullpen arms, shore up the right side of the infield and get a backup catcher, say screw the luxury tax and the penalties, etc...and go for it. It's going to be damn difficult for the Sox to shred enough salary and still be able to replenish the talent so it's not a net negative to the team on the field. And a real question is: If the Red Sox are unable to improve the team they had on the field last year, then what good does it do them to be an 83 - 88 win team and maybe make the playoffs (and 88 wins wouldn't have done the trick last year.)? It's not hard to see that if Price gets dealt that opens up a big hole in the rotation and you're banking on Sale and Eovaldi to be healthy and effective beyond E-Rod and hope that you have enough depth to get through their injury histories. The Sox right now are in a holding pattern because they're waiting for the big fish to come off the board so that whoever gets shut out will circle back to the Red Sox looking for a trade. And it's obvious Price is their first candidate for trade and JBJ is their second. They're trying to hang onto Mookie. But it's a fair question of what talent will surround Mookie on the 2020 team and is it worth it? And you absolutely do have to factor in that a division race is unlikely. Cole obviously strengthens a strong Yankee team and gives them exactly what they've been lacking the past several years. Ignoring that or focusing on years 7-8-9 of that contract kind of misses the point about the here and now and the foreseeable short-term future. The Red Sox have to be realistic about their chances this upcoming season. If Bloom can work some miracles on those trades or the bargain basement then fine, hang onto Mookie and go for it and trade Mookie in July if it's obvious he's not coming back and they're not going anywhere. If Bloom isn't getting much back in those dumps and doesn't have enough cash to actually improve this team from what they had on the field from last year, it is fair game to question whether they'd be better off with a full rebuild.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2019 14:28:55 GMT -5
Might as well give them E-Rod too... I hear he will make a buck or two in arb next year, and we can't have that. This offseason is the worst. You forgot to mention who we'd get back...
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 11, 2019 15:51:20 GMT -5
It’s 2019 and we are using peter gammons as a reliable source??? Isn’t he the same guy who implied no one wanted to work for the Sox? Didn’t we get our number 2 choice?
Add no disrespect to the legend Gammons but his days of being a reasonable source has long been over
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2019 16:00:16 GMT -5
It’s 2019 and we are using peter gammons as a reliable source??? Isn’t he the same guy who implied no one wanted to work for the Sox? Didn’t we get our number 2 choice? Add no disrespect to the legend Gammons but his days of being a reasonable source has long been over Hope you're right. He did say Cole was going to the Yankees FWIW. I would think he still has contacts in the organization. Hope he's incorrect about Mookie's desire to stay in Boston if all things are equal or reasonably close to equal.
|
|
|
Post by soxaddict on Dec 11, 2019 16:12:42 GMT -5
I may be in the minority, but I’d prefer to take Hosmer over Myers. Sure, he’s got 6 years on his deal with an AAV of $18 mil, but IMO you could get some quality players back if we were to take him.
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 11, 2019 16:16:06 GMT -5
It’s 2019 and we are using peter gammons as a reliable source??? Isn’t he the same guy who implied no one wanted to work for the Sox? Didn’t we get our number 2 choice? Add no disrespect to the legend Gammons but his days of being a reasonable source has long been over Hope you're right. He did say Cole was going to the Yankees FWIW. I would think he still has contacts in the organization. Hope he's incorrect about Mookie's desire to stay in Boston if all things are equal or reasonably close to equal. Last night he mentioned the dodgers being a real player to get Cole. Cole to the Yankees wasn’t a hard one to predict. Like I said I love me some peter gammons back in the day but It might be over for him.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 11, 2019 16:23:14 GMT -5
The Dodgers were apparently the high offer at 8/$300M until the Yankees stepped in with the 9th year. So he went to the Yankees and the Dodgers were a player, which sounds exactly like what Gammons said?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2019 16:24:23 GMT -5
Hope you're right. He did say Cole was going to the Yankees FWIW. I would think he still has contacts in the organization. Hope he's incorrect about Mookie's desire to stay in Boston if all things are equal or reasonably close to equal. Last night he mentioned the dodgers being a real player to get Cole. Cole to the Yankees wasn’t a hard one to predict. Like I said I love me some peter gammons back in the day but It might be over for him. Nope, that's why I finally got one right. lol. That was easy to see from miles away. The Yankees learned not to throw their money at everybody in free agency anymore, only the best of what they really, really need.
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 11, 2019 16:27:33 GMT -5
The Dodgers were apparently the high offer at 8/$300M until the Yankees stepped in with the 9th year. So he went to the Yankees and the Dodgers were a player, which sounds exactly like what Gammons said? He predicted both teams to get him. One side of his mouth said yankees the other the dodgers
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2019 16:58:59 GMT -5
The Dodgers were apparently the high offer at 8/$300M until the Yankees stepped in with the 9th year. So he went to the Yankees and the Dodgers were a player, which sounds exactly like what Gammons said? He predicted both teams to get him. One side of his mouth said yankees the other the dodgers If I had to guess....I would say Gammons had the Yankees wrapping up the Cole deal for around 7 years 245 million - until the Nats came in with that same offer to Strasburg - I don't think anybody has Strasburg getting THAT much - and reset the Cole market, making the figure much higher than anticipated where 7 years was no longer good enough and 300 million was in inevitable. Then given a chance, the Dodgers came in with a big offer but the Yankees weren't going be denied on the one guy they truly, truly coveted. That's my interpretation, anyways.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2019 17:45:34 GMT -5
Baseballs revenue has gone up by about 25% since Price signed his deal, which takes his 31 million salary and makes it 38.75 which no one got. It's really like James said in another thread teams added years instead of the extra money. I think Cole is better than Price, a year younger, less wear and tear. So instead of eight years at over 40 million, he got nine years to lower the AAV.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2019 18:20:38 GMT -5
Man, I love how people are jumping on board with the Will Myers idea. I nailed that idea 2 weeks ago. Twitter is finding out about this idea now. I'm sure Bloom figured it out by the beginning of November. I should take credit for that one, but I don't care. I just like that the idea is out there. Good stuff. Also, I think the Sox are waiting on the best prospect or prospects out of a Price deal. I think that's what's delaying the trade. They have probably a good idea what they can get, just hoping for maybe a little more. There's competition for pitching this off-season, the Sox are in a good place to trade Price. The David Price free agent signing will have worked to perfection if the Sox find the right deal. You would need a rather big prospect return to make the Meyers trade a good one. Price was worth more bwar in 2018 than Meyers was the last three years combined. His best position is 1B and those guys are dirt cheap on the free agent market right now.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 11, 2019 19:02:09 GMT -5
Man, I love how people are jumping on board with the Will Myers idea. I nailed that idea 2 weeks ago. Twitter is finding out about this idea now. I'm sure Bloom figured it out by the beginning of November. I should take credit for that one, but I don't care. I just like that the idea is out there. Good stuff. Also, I think the Sox are waiting on the best prospect or prospects out of a Price deal. I think that's what's delaying the trade. They have probably a good idea what they can get, just hoping for maybe a little more. There's competition for pitching this off-season, the Sox are in a good place to trade Price. The David Price free agent signing will have worked to perfection if the Sox find the right deal. You would need a rather big prospect return to make the Meyers trade a good one. Price was worth more bwar in 2018 than Meyers was the last three years combined. His best position is 1B and those guys are dirt cheap on the free agent market right now. You clear cap space and you get value ontop of the dead money. All I'm looking for is a decent package. A couple of starting pitching types that are maybe close to big league ready. This team can't really afford even dirt cheap without clearing cap room first.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2019 5:30:34 GMT -5
You would need a rather big prospect return to make the Meyers trade a good one. Price was worth more bwar in 2018 than Meyers was the last three years combined. His best position is 1B and those guys are dirt cheap on the free agent market right now. You clear cap space and you get value ontop of the dead money. All I'm looking for is a decent package. A couple of starting pitching types that are maybe close to big league ready. This team can't really afford even dirt cheap without clearing cap room first. That's the thing though, taking on Myers just gets you to the line basically. Then dump Bradley and you only have about 10 million to spend and a bunch of holes. Get someone to take most of his contract and you can get close to what Eric posted. That isn't half bad. You can get a guy like Thames for likely about 1/4 of what Meyers will cost, while also giving Dalbec a chance to earn the job going forward. I'd rather add something to Price if it wasn't a huge amount, than take back Meyers without a good size return coming our way. Like I'm asking for Adrian Morejon a former top 100 guy who's basically major league ready and Michael Baez, but might be willing to settle for a 2nd guy like Ronald Bolanos or Pedro Avila all grade 45 or better type guys. All are basically major league ready. Heck I might be selling us short, but I love Morejon. A few days it was comical that any team would take on all or most of David Prices deal. Given this crazy market that might not be the chase anymore.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2019 10:33:37 GMT -5
Baseballs revenue has gone up by about 25% since Price signed his deal, which takes his 31 million salary and makes it 38.75 which no one got. It's really like James said in another thread teams added years instead of the extra money. I think Cole is better than Price, a year younger, less wear and tear. So instead of eight years at over 40 million, he got nine years to lower the AAV. Don't agree with the premise of your analysis. MLB revenue doesn't set the CBT, and if you're trying to adjust for the value of money over time you'd want to use inflation (in which case nobody is ever touching ARod, probably).
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2019 10:54:32 GMT -5
I may be misunderstanding, but I actually think that kind of agrees with his point more generally - that because the CBT threshold isn't tied to revenues (and doesn't have an inflation adjustment), Cole couldn't really get the equivalent adjusted amount more than Price. So instead he got an extra year. Instead of AAV going up, contracts have seemingly gotten longer.
Agree that nobody is touching A-Rod for awhile. 25-year-old at a premium position who is one of the two best players in baseball. It would be like if Tatis hits his 99th percentile projection and is in the conversation with Trout as baseball's best player when he hits free agency after 2024.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2019 11:14:08 GMT -5
I guess, in hindsight I was disagreeing with the premise in the first sentence that informed the rest of the point?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2019 11:47:03 GMT -5
If things were fair, the CBT level would adjust to the same percentage of revenues including cable deals. Which would probably make that number about $330 million by now.
|
|