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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 18, 2020 13:08:53 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 14,314
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Post by cdj on Feb 18, 2020 13:22:20 GMT -5
Would love it if they get the Padres to assume half of that deal and get something like Campusano and Quantrill (5th starter)
What would we give up? Probably nothing of too much significance
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 18, 2020 13:23:19 GMT -5
Big thumbs up to this move if we can pull it off. Wouldn't paying half of Myers contract only count for like $4M against the tax? Plenty of room to just absorb and cut if needed provided the prospect return is sufficient. Even just Quantrill alone would be nice.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 18, 2020 13:36:41 GMT -5
I love the idea and creativity, but this 100% depends on what we're trading away. Are we moving major leaguers? Some low end prospects? JBJ? I could see that happen. JBJ to SD, Myers and prospects to BOS. Pillar/Verdugo play CF, Myers gets some time in OF (more on the road than at Fenway at least in RF).
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 18, 2020 13:48:00 GMT -5
This has a chance to make the Mookie trade look quite a bit better when you consider the extra money saved on Price's contract would go towards Myers and the prospects he brings with him. When we were looking at Padre's prospects for a potential trade, ramireja pointed out their #13 prospect Arias as a good get. His profile looks pretty interesting. m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sd Many here wanted Campusano. I know Ian preferred Lucchesi to Quantrill but maybe the Sox can figure out something with his trouble with lefties. Would probably prefer him to the opener. This would be quite a deal if Bloom can get all three.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2020 14:05:11 GMT -5
If Bloom can find a way to get Campusano without messing up their finances by taking on Myers, then that would be an excellent move to make. Getting Quantrill, too would be a nice bonus.
I'm not very high on Quantrill. I don't think he's much more than a #5 guy. But the Sox, even despite the addition of Connor Wong to the system, don't really have a catcher of the future and Vazquez is going to turn 30 this year. Campusano would be a fantastic addition for their future.
As far as Arias goes, he's interesting, but I don't know that his plate approach is going to work. He's young enough to start to improve it, but that BB/K ratio was kind of rough. Looks like he's got glove and a decent hit tool with some pop.
If they can only have one of them then they need to zero in on Campusano. Catchers like him are hard to find and if Mejia is the catcher of the Padres' future then perhaps they'll part with Campusano. I could get behind a catching tandem of Campusano and his backup Wong.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2020 14:07:31 GMT -5
This has a chance to make the Mookie trade look quite a bit better when you consider the extra money saved on Price's contract would go towards Myers and the prospects he brings with him. When we were looking at Padre's prospects for a potential trade, ramireja pointed out their #13 prospect Arias as a good get. His profile looks pretty interesting. m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sd Many here wanted Campusano. I know Ian preferred Lucchesi to Quantrill but maybe the Sox can figure out something with his trouble with lefties. Would probably prefer him to the opener. This would be quite a deal if Bloom can get all three. They're not getting all 3 unless they take on Myers' entire contract and they're not doing that. And I doubt the Pads, as much as they want to get out from under, want to part with that many prospects. Sounds like their plan is to clear some payroll to add a guy like Lindor or maybe to get Senzel. Either way they'll need to part with some of their prospects so clearing them out to dump Myers isn't likely although parting with one could happen. Honestly if it's just Quantrill, then if I'm the Red Sox, I pass. He isn't worth taking on $10 million/year. Campusano is a different story.
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Post by texs31 on Feb 18, 2020 14:09:41 GMT -5
Maybe we can get them to PQ and the comp pick.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 18, 2020 14:10:35 GMT -5
This trade makes sense as an arbitrage opportunity. Myers at half price makes $15 million a year with a $7 million AAV. The Sox care more about AAV than salary, and the Padres don't benefit from his depressed AAV. The Sox probably feel like the money they have under the luxury tax this year is burning a hole in their pocket, if Henry's history is any indication. They don't have a lot of obvious opportunities available to spend this year left.
They should be getting back something $20 million in surplus value for taking on Myers at 3/30. Campusano by himself would be a pretty good return. Arias alone would be a good return if you go by ZiPS. It's difficult to value Quantrill since his performance record is not impressive, but it seems like the Sox want to bet on him.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 18, 2020 14:23:40 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 18, 2020 14:25:44 GMT -5
This trade makes sense as an arbitrage opportunity. Myers at half price makes $15 million a year with a $7 million AAV. The Sox care more about AAV than salary, and the Padres don't benefit from his depressed AAV. The Sox probably feel like the money they have under the luxury tax this year is burning a hole in their pocket, if Henry's history is any indication. They don't have a lot of obvious opportunities available to spend this year left. They should be getting back something $20 million in surplus value for taking on Myers at 3/30. Campusano by himself would be a pretty good return. Arias alone would be a good return if you go by ZiPS. It's difficult to value Quantrill since his performance record is not impressive, but it seems like the Sox want to bet on him. Myers is owed $61mil over the next 3 years (includes year 4 buyout). If the Padres pay for half then it cuts 30.5 mil (it doesn't also cut in half like the payroll) off of his remaining AAV total of $41.5mil which brings down his AAV to 11mil over 3 years - or 3.67mil/year AAV for tax purposes. To me this looks like the Red Sox knowing they need a 5th starter and determining the ability/cost for Quantrill is greater than that of any current free agents. Quantrill has some interesting numbers, both in terms of splits and SP/RP: Season Handedness IP ERA TBF H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA 2019 vs L 59.2 - - - 270 70 15 2 35 34 10 24 2 1 43 .290 .354 .494 .353 2019 vs R 43.1 - - - 173 36 3 1 26 25 5 4 0 2 46 .217 .243 .337 .246
Season Handedness K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP 2019 vs L 6.49 3.62 1.79 1.51 15.9 % 8.9 % 7.0 % - - - 1.58 .313 74.1 % 5.21 5.56 2019 vs R 9.55 0.83 11.50 1.04 26.6 % 2.3 % 24.3 % - - - 0.92 .267 45.7 % 3.01 3.11
Season SP / RP IP ERA TBF H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA 2019 As Starter 91.2 5.69 400 100 18 3 60 58 15 24 1 3 78 .272 .319 .459 .326 2019 As Reliever 11.1 0.79 43 6 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 0 11 .154 .233 .154 .174
Season SP / RP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP 2019 As Starter 7.66 2.36 3.25 1.47 19.5 % 6.0 % 13.5 % .272 1.35 .304 63.2 % 4.52 4.59 2019 As Reliever 8.74 3.18 2.75 0.00 25.6 % 9.3 % 16.3 % .154 0.88 .214 90.0 % 2.33 4.09
Based on the numbers - this could also mean that the Red Sox plan to go with an opener in the 5th rotation slot, in which case Quantrill would fit-in quite well if used around the LHB.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 18, 2020 14:30:05 GMT -5
So is the new market inefficiency acquiring high salary players with low AAV's to beat the luxury tax?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 18, 2020 14:39:01 GMT -5
So is the new market inefficiency acquiring high salary players with low AAV's to beat the luxury tax? Yes, and the recommendation is that poor teams should structure contracts so that they pay more money later, and rich teams should structure contracts so that they pay less money later. Thus when a team needs a tax bargain but has plenty of cash it can acquire an expensive player with a low AAV, or trade a player with a high AAV but a low (in coming years) paycheck.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 18, 2020 14:46:06 GMT -5
I'm not necessarily sure this means anyone gets traded. I think he probably is the 4th OF/1B platoon with Moreland, so I'm not sure he's necessarily displacing anyone until Verdugo is ready to roll.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 18, 2020 14:48:12 GMT -5
Gabriel Arias | Rank: 13 (Preseason: 25) Team: Lake Elsinore Storm (A Adv) ETA: 2021 Position: SS Age: 19 DOB: 02/27/2000 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 201 lb. Signed: July 2, 2016 - SD Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45 Arias, one of the top prospects in the 2016-17 international class, received $1.9 million as the Padres blew past their spending pool during the signing period. At age 17, he was promoted to Class A Fort Wayne and held his own, hitting .276 in the Midwest League playoffs before turning in a strong showing in the Australian Baseball League. Arias remained with Fort Wayne for the entirety of the '18 season, and he slumped to a .654 OPS. But he remained an expert defensively, and he came on strong offensively toward the end of the season. Arias has all the tools to become a plus defender at short, where he has very good hands, footwork and control of his body. His arm strength and range make it clear he's cut out for the position long-term. He has strides to make at the plate, however. A right-handed hitter, Arias' swing can get long and his plate approach needs a bit of work. If he can refine his swing, Arias is expected to generate some power as he develops physically. He already hits the ball hard, gap-to-gap. Arias' defensive value gives him a relatively high floor, but it's the entire package on both sides of the ball that has club officials excited about the teenager's bright future. Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG OPS LE (A+) 120 477 62 144 21 4 17 75 25 128 8 .302 .339 .470 .809
Crazy this guy is only their 13th ranked prospect, hitting .302 at high-AA with plus defense and a plus arm at short. Would be great if they could get him along with Quantrill. m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sd
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 18, 2020 14:48:13 GMT -5
So is the new market inefficiency acquiring high salary players with low AAV's to beat the luxury tax? I think this is a unique opportunity that rarely comes along. Teams generally don't like to send prospects with bad contracts, usually preferring to just eat the money (remember the Sox immediately saying they would not include Benintendi to move Price). I am surprised other teams like Seattle aren't in on this but am certainly glad Bloom is. We could be looking at another emergency podcast here.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 18, 2020 14:51:38 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction, wcsoxfan. I misunderstood how this works.
Assuming the Sox are done in free agency, they have room to eat about $45 million of Myers' deal. They would leave them with a few million under the tax to play with during the season.
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Post by redsox1534 on Feb 18, 2020 15:04:36 GMT -5
Ya so half of Myers deal would be like 10 mill a year for the next 3 years. Well let's assume they move jbj in this deal or another. That is 10 mill in salary which offsets the Myers contract we take back in which case our current number doesnt go up. Now I am not a quantrial fan I like luchessi people are sleeping on him. I love baez out of the pen. Of the realistic mi or leaguers campsuano I love. Love the creativity here we need this kind of stuff big time! Also these young players could be important pieces in a deal for another player down the line, arenando, bryant, lindor etc. Senzel? I'm very excited about this possibility!!
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 18, 2020 15:10:20 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction, wcsoxfan. I misunderstood how this works. Assuming the Sox are done in free agency, they have room to eat about $45 million of Myers' deal. They would leave them with a few million under the tax to play with during the season. If they agree, it does mean that Henry cares more about the CBT than the cash outlay. Still don't understand, but at least a consistent story.
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Post by manfred on Feb 18, 2020 15:20:27 GMT -5
The only value is if he is the throw-in in an otherwise good trade. But if this is about a trade with him as the central piece, pass.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2020 15:24:45 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth here's Rob Bradford's take on it from his WEEI.com article:
"The Red Sox' interest in such a trade is more about acquiring a young starting pitcher in return, with top Padres prospect Cal Quantrill seemingly high on Chaim Bloom's list."
I hope that's not what this is about. Taking on 3 years $30 million of the mediocre Myers to get just Cal Quantrill would be a disappointment. They shouldn't have to take on that kind of money and player to get a back end starter.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 18, 2020 15:28:50 GMT -5
Is Myers able to play center anymore? In theory they could cut Bradley and save the same money, and then use Pillar/Myers/Verdugo platoons.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2020 15:32:31 GMT -5
So is the new market inefficiency acquiring high salary players with low AAV's to beat the luxury tax? The new market inefficiency is trading expensive players with tons of cash for prospects. Imagine how much Chris Sale could fetch if they sent $150 million with him.
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Post by soxaddict on Feb 18, 2020 15:35:16 GMT -5
If the Red Sox eat $30m of Myers salary, it’s worth Quantrill and Arias even if we just send them a bag of balls.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2020 15:36:28 GMT -5
Is Myers able to play center anymore? In theory they could cut Bradley and save the same money, and then use Pillar/Myers/Verdugo platoons. No. And I wouldn't even put him in RF at Fenway. I'd rather flip him to a 3rd team with even more cash for more prospects.
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