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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 12, 2021 10:15:08 GMT -5
The thing for me about Rocker is that he's just so inconsistent. Does it surprise me that he was dominant today? No. Would it surprise me if in his next start, a 170-pound 2nd baseman hitting out of the eighth spot turns on a 91 mph fastball and puts it 13 rows up in right field seats? Also no. The things for me about Rocker is that he doesn't consistently display a dominant, modern day FB and his command is somewhat suspect. I believe that baseball will take aggressive measures to restore pitching/hitting balance (beyond monitoring/punishing ball spin doctoring). With the advance and greater dominance of mlb fastballs, I am convinced that, at some near point, 60'6" will be a relic. If so, that also will not auger well for Rocker.
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Post by philarhody on Jun 12, 2021 10:34:59 GMT -5
I suspect Red Sox go underslot at 4. A lot of intriguing high school players outside of the big name shortstops and Jobe. I’d be fine with Montgomery, Baez, Petty, or Solometo at 4 if it meant a significant haul later in the draft (more significant than Blaze Jordan, for instance).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 12, 2021 11:01:25 GMT -5
Jack Leiter is pitching on espn2 right now.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 12, 2021 11:22:55 GMT -5
99 with some swings and misses with his curve as well so far. Got a called K with his changeup although it was a bit outside the strike zone.
Would be hard not to like him with the 4th overall pick if he is there. If not, Davis or Lawlar would be good too.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 12, 2021 12:07:48 GMT -5
I suspect Red Sox go underslot at 4. A lot of intriguing high school players outside of the big name shortstops and Jobe. I’d be fine with Montgomery, Baez, Petty, or Solometo at 4 if it meant a significant haul later in the draft (more significant than Blaze Jordan, for instance). But Jordan hasn't flamed out..
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 12, 2021 12:17:21 GMT -5
I suspect Red Sox go underslot at 4. A lot of intriguing high school players outside of the big name shortstops and Jobe. I’d be fine with Montgomery, Baez, Petty, or Solometo at 4 if it meant a significant haul later in the draft (more significant than Blaze Jordan, for instance). I'm curious why you feel that way, as most MLB insiders (Callis, Longenhagen, Mayo, Law,) have said the exact opposite. Is it that the Red Sox went under slot with their 1st round pick in 2020 - when they had only 4 picks in a 5 pick draft (so recency bias); or it is what you would do if you were in Baseball Ops?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 12, 2021 12:33:08 GMT -5
Different year, different circumstance, different quality available. No way the Sox are going under slot.
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 12, 2021 12:40:35 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if they went under slot.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 12, 2021 12:42:40 GMT -5
Different year, different circumstance, different quality available. No way the Sox are going under slot. Agree. Bloom has built quality farm system depth through trades but has been unable to land a sure fire T100 prospect (other than Downs). We wont trade a T50 this draft for two T150s. It wouldn't surprise me though if we did go over slot in round two and just drafted college arms underslot with picks 10-20. That frees up an additional 1 million assuming all players sign for 25k. Here is what I'm talking about. The Possible bonus (20%) Column assumes everyone after pick 3 is signed for 20% of the slot. The Possible Bonus (Weighted) has more capital allocated to picks 4-9, then assumes 20% thereafter.
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 12, 2021 12:54:16 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this:
1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer
Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else?
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 12, 2021 12:58:52 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? Watson
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 12, 2021 12:59:20 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? I will have to reserve my answer until I see Rockers CWS. He may be a big game pitcher with a few off starts in low pressure games.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 12, 2021 13:02:01 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? 1. Underslot with Jobe or Watson if they'll take it 2. House, Rocker, Lawlar 3. Near slot with Jobe or Watson 4. Way underslot with Frelick, McClain, Madden 5. Wayyyy underslot with the next tier of high school hitters (Ford, Montgomery, Baez) And, FWIW, you probably just listed my top three preferences in order. So you can construct my entire wish list off of this
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 12, 2021 13:07:41 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? I will have to reserve my answer until I see Rockers CWS. He may be a big game pitcher with a few off starts in low pressure games. Alright, I'm going to use this post to rant a little bit. You're not the only person I've seen fall into this trap, but it's a common theme and I don't like it. How many pitchers have there ever been that have been immune to bad games? Like yeah, DeGrom is doing that right now, but if you're expecting anyone to become DeGrom your sights are way too high. Being a starting pitcher, by nature, is going to be a higher variance proposition than most other positions. Yeah you want to eliminate implosion games but if you have a guy that has the potential to throw some of the higher end games Rocker has thrown, you do what you can to try to figure that out. Also, just because he's a college pitcher and has been famous for a while, doesn't mean he's a finished product. Yeah, the fastball might need work in a couple areas, that's why we have coaches. Again, the tools need to justify the developmental risk, and in this case they probably do. Keep in mind, this is coming from someone who has never been particularly sold on Rocker (you can check the receipts on that), and he's not even in my top 5 favorite scenarios for this upcoming draft, so it's not like I'm a huge Rocker fan just defending him. But I definitely feel like we're at the point where we've been anticipating this pick for so long that we've started to nitpick minor concerns and blow them way out of proportion, and I believe Rocker having a few bad games is an example of that. I mean jeez, look how many freaking posts there are on this draft thread already. It's insane. I love it, of course, but we have collectively definitely jumped the shark.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 12, 2021 13:08:54 GMT -5
I suspect Red Sox go underslot at 4. A lot of intriguing high school players outside of the big name shortstops and Jobe. I’d be fine with Montgomery, Baez, Petty, or Solometo at 4 if it meant a significant haul later in the draft (more significant than Blaze Jordan, for instance). I could definitely see this, but not for a big drop in rankings/price like Baltimore did last year to save $1 mill or more. It also depends on how "certain" they are on a pick. For example, the top 6 or 7 (Davis/Leiter/Kumar/Mayer/Lawler/Watson) have been fluid, so I am not sure if a scout would dig his or her heels into a material difference. Yes, if pushed to pick the best player, they would articulate the preference. But with the caveat of it being a crapshoot, I could see them saying there is much noise to suggest a preference, but the volatility is too big to pay a premium for one guy. So at 4 say to the agents "we'll pick your guy at a discount of $800K off slot." As an agent, you have a player who might drop two spots later, and lose that $800K just in slot. And it makes sense, why pay a premium just because slot tells you your preference is worth $800K more than the next player, when the Sox may only value the preference at $50K? Say to your scouts, do you want Leiter for $6.6, or Watson for $5.9 and $700K extra for the second or third picks?
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Jun 12, 2021 13:40:39 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? It's A or B for me: A: Swing for the fences: Watson (my prefrence) or Jobe for slot B: Line drive single to the opposite field: Frelick (my preference) or McLain for underslot and dominate the later rounds with the savings
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 12, 2021 14:16:24 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 12, 2021 14:25:12 GMT -5
Without knowing scouting reports or bonus asks... it feels super difficult to pass on Watson or lawyer who I’ve seen both the top pick earlier and compared to a Bobby Witt. But so much we don’t and shouldn’t know as a fan right now. ( meaning I really like the game of poker bloom seems to play).
I suspect every inch of background and scouting and coverage and discussion between various scouting directors and scouts will take place, along with some passionate disagreements; until someone kinda in a way puts his job on line and makes a decision ( not literally puts job on line but sticks his neck out). People will be heard and discussion of the facts they see will take place.
That choice and method is healthy as the team moves forward to both make the correct choice end never be in this spot again.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 12, 2021 15:00:24 GMT -5
I recorded and am watching the game now. Pretty impressed with Leiter's command + control of his offspeed. Led to some strikeouts looking. Sometimes it's not a good idea because you don't know what it'll do to the shape of the pitch, but I wonder if Leiter might want to add a little bit of velocity to the curve so it tends to low-mid 80s as opposed to high 70s-low 80s. Could maybe help with deception and tunneling given that he's yet to really develop a third pitch. Thinking of James Karinchak of the Indians as a comp for the fastball/hard curve deception though they have different mechanics obviously.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 12, 2021 15:07:17 GMT -5
I think I need to have more of a life, but I actually had a dream that the Sox picked Jordan Lawlar.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2021 15:20:15 GMT -5
According to this article, the Red Sox have show interest in OF Jonathan Santucci of Philips Academy. He's #338 on BA's current draft board.
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Post by philarhody on Jun 12, 2021 16:07:58 GMT -5
I betchya they could save a cool couple mill by nailing Baez at 4.
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Post by philarhody on Jun 12, 2021 16:21:47 GMT -5
I suspect Red Sox go underslot at 4. A lot of intriguing high school players outside of the big name shortstops and Jobe. I’d be fine with Montgomery, Baez, Petty, or Solometo at 4 if it meant a significant haul later in the draft (more significant than Blaze Jordan, for instance). I'm curious why you feel that way, as most MLB insiders (Callis, Longenhagen, Mayo, Law,) have said the exact opposite. Is it that the Red Sox went under slot with their 1st round pick in 2020 - when they had only 4 picks in a 5 pick draft (so recency bias); or it is what you would do if you were in Baseball Ops? Both :-) 1. They chose Nick Yorke in the first round a year ago, recency bias be damned. It being a 5 round draft makes it less appealing to go underslot imo. 2.In his pipeline podcast, Callis talked about how his son’s master thesis concluded that best practice is to go underslot on the first two picks and then go over slot later in the draft. (Not saying GM’s listen to fan podcasts, but it stands as much to reason that they do than believing draft experts’ opinion when it comes to team selections). 3. I think there is far less seperating a player like Montgomery or Baez from Jordan Lawlar or Brady House than we’re talking about. I hate Montgomery’s swing. I also hate House’s. Take a look at the first round of the 2016 mlb draft and it is terrifying. I would just rather take numerous shots on talent than shoot your shot on Leiter or Lawlar. If Davis is there, maybe you take him. Otherwise, take some shots when less teams can.
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Post by unitspin on Jun 12, 2021 16:35:11 GMT -5
For argument's sake, let's say the first three picks work out like this: 1. Pittsburgh - Henry Davis 2. Texas - Jack Leiter 3. Detroit - Marcelo Mayer Who do you want at #4? Lawler? Rocker? Someone else? Rocker or house, I'm good on lawler. House screams trout to me, rocker has ace potential, lawler to me has bust written all over him. I could very well be way off but just imo.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2021 16:38:25 GMT -5
I'm curious why you feel that way, as most MLB insiders (Callis, Longenhagen, Mayo, Law,) have said the exact opposite. Is it that the Red Sox went under slot with their 1st round pick in 2020 - when they had only 4 picks in a 5 pick draft (so recency bias); or it is what you would do if you were in Baseball Ops? Both :-) 1. They chose Nick Yorke in the first round a year ago, recency bias be damned. It being a 5 round draft makes it less appealing to go underslot imo. They went that route last year because they didn't have a second round pick.
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