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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 19, 2021 16:44:24 GMT -5
Exactly...It may be a feeling tied to no substance, but I have vibes that the Sox are getting away from smallish players. Watson reminds me of a downsized JBJ. I feel like there's a more obvious comparison to make for an intense, competitive, undersized middle infielder from the recent Red Sox past, albeit one who hit from the other side of the plate... Sean Coyle??
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 19, 2021 17:37:47 GMT -5
If Mayer, Davis and Leiter are off the board, I wouldn’t mind going with Rocker.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 19, 2021 17:43:52 GMT -5
If Mayer, Davis and Leiter are off the board, I wouldn’t mind going with Rocker. If those three are all of the board all bets are off. I can't say I would be against taking Rocker.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 19, 2021 18:42:01 GMT -5
Rocker having a bit of a horror start against Arizona, 3 runs allowed in the first with multiple hard hit balls (fb sitting around 93). Throwing more changeups than you might otherwise see from him and fewer sliders for some reason. Branden Boissiere (1b) of Arizona crushed a double and is maybe a round 3-7 guy, who was also super hot against Ole Miss in the Super Regional. Jacob Berry also doubled and is a name to keep track of for the future. Daniel Susac is a catcher and showed great patience in his at bat against Rocker. He's another one to watch for the future, though his single was less of a barrel and more of a hard ground ball that found a hole.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2021 18:59:50 GMT -5
Lawlar is the Jeter Downs of possible draft picks: weirdly overlooked for being right at the top of the list. (Though in Lawlar's case it might be in part that he has mostly been assumed not to be available at #4, at least until recently?) That's exactly the guy I thought of. Tho I think there's a reason...I don't see Downs as being much more than a 2-WAR guy. I'm concerned Lawlar is the same. I think if you've got the 4 overall pick, you shoot your shot. It's not hard at all to find a 2 WAR guy. It is hard to find a perennial 4 WAR guy (or better). I was disappointed that they got Downs (I'd have preferred Ruiz), and I'd be sorta disappointed with Lawlar. A bunch of 50-55 tools is great in the 10-15 range, but I want a carrying tool in the top 10. At least Beni had the 65-70 hit, even if it didn't pan out that way. Kind of the same reason I'm concerned with Leiter now. His secondaries aren't that great (50-55) and his FB velocity is pretty pedestrian. He's got the plus-plus FB because of the spin and axis/fact that it's very vertical. He probably has a little projection left too. But I wonder if that FB holds up with the foreign substance rules being enforced. If he loses the elite hop on his FB he's a 4/5 ceiling guy. I'd still take him over Lawler though, because commanding a swing-and-miss FB is one of those things that just *makes* a guy a guy (I think of Okajima and Koji, whiffing guys with mid-high 80s). There's always learning a new pitch or modifying a grip or anything else, but it all works off the FB. Tbh I'm kind of hoping for Davis, although I like Watson too. And I'd be happy with Leiter. Mayer's my first choice in that group; I'd probably prefer Rocker and maybe Jobe (although that's a horror show demographic) over Lawlar, and I even lean House a bit. I'll admit I might be underestimating Lawlar because of watching Downs. I was going to write a long post about "best player available" and how it is probably true (and certainly defensible) that it does vary according to what players you have in your org. Just not by position.
A bad team with a weak farm system should be prioritizing high floor. A strong team with a good farm system should be prioritizing ceiling. Which is what you're saying here.
I'll add four observations:
1) When I first started following this thread, there was a clear top 4. Then Davis made it 5, then people started talking House again, then Jobe, and then Watson. This makes things considerably more interesting.
2) If you were a guy whose name was being throw around at 1 through 5 or 8, which team would you like to play for? Duh. I could see someone giving the top three teams a big inflated figure and telling the Sox they'd sign for 3 or 4 slot money.
3) One of the most important factors in player evaluation is hardly mentioned in scouting reports, because it can't be assessed by watching guys play. That's makeup, of course. You can be sure that whoever they draft is someone whose makeup they love.
4) As a result , I don't think there's any warrant for disappointment (aside from initially) at their choice. If it's a surprise, they know something we don't.
I mean for all we know, House had Pedroia makeup, or Rocker has Clemens makeup plus a fixable flaw that his college coaches have missed. If they draft someone I'm not enthusiastic about, my reaction will be "Wow, really? They know something. Very, very interesting." Because, you know, "stupid pick!" just doesn't fly. Adopting this attitude will save much angst, should a surprise happen.
Numbers 2 and 3 add to number 1 to make the draft excessively interesting.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 19, 2021 19:01:29 GMT -5
Rocker having a bit of a horror start against Arizona, 3 runs allowed in the first with multiple hard hit balls (fb sitting around 93). Throwing more changeups than you might otherwise see from him and fewer sliders for some reason. Branden Boissiere (1b) of Arizona crushed a double and is maybe a round 3-7 guy, who was also super hot against Ole Miss in the Super Regional. Jacob Berry also doubled and is a name to keep track of for the future. Daniel Susac is a catcher and showed great patience in his at bat against Rocker. He's another one to watch for the future, though his single was less of a barrel and more of a hard ground ball that found a hole. I'm not watching the game just box score checking but in fair after 2 innings he's at 4 Ks. Hopefully he settles in because overall I like him and want to root for him not necessarily as the guy I want at 4 but just he seems likeable.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 19, 2021 19:24:57 GMT -5
Rocker having a bit of a horror start against Arizona, 3 runs allowed in the first with multiple hard hit balls (fb sitting around 93). Throwing more changeups than you might otherwise see from him and fewer sliders for some reason. Branden Boissiere (1b) of Arizona crushed a double and is maybe a round 3-7 guy, who was also super hot against Ole Miss in the Super Regional. Jacob Berry also doubled and is a name to keep track of for the future. Daniel Susac is a catcher and showed great patience in his at bat against Rocker. He's another one to watch for the future, though his single was less of a barrel and more of a hard ground ball that found a hole. I'm not watching the game just box score checking but in fair after 2 innings he's at 4 Ks. Hopefully he settles in because overall I like him and want to root for him not necessarily as the guy I want at 4 but just he seems likeable. He's definitely settled into it. He's been more willing to mix in fastballs, especially later in the count. That's really helped him induce swings-and-misses outside of the zone with the slider. The changeup hasn't been strong when used, very flat, but I think there's a glimmer of potential there if the fastball can be counted on as a true weapon.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 19, 2021 20:13:35 GMT -5
5 runs for Rocker. Leiter on tap next.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 19, 2021 20:24:50 GMT -5
If Mayer, Davis and Leiter are off the board, I wouldn’t mind going with Rocker. If those three are all of the board all bets are off. I can't say I would be against taking Rocker. Completely respect it though for me, I’d probably place Watson, Jobe, House, and Lawlar above Rocker. Rockers game today didn’t really change that opinion for me. In all honesty I’d kinda prefer Gavin Williams to Rocker. Williams uses four pitches right now, all average to plus, is a big boy, and LIVES mid 90s while bumping 99, every game, every inning. To each their own though:)
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Post by philarhody on Jun 19, 2021 20:25:27 GMT -5
Exactly...It may be a feeling tied to no substance, but I have vibes that the Sox are getting away from smallish players. Watson reminds me of a downsized JBJ. It’s not just vibes; the whole 5’ 10” OF is gone and they have been drafting and signing bigger guys, with the tiny exception of Santana. He reminds you of a downsized Jackie Bradley Jr.? I’m gonna just slowly back away from this one. I don’t see how their swings are anything alike.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 19, 2021 20:43:27 GMT -5
It’s not just vibes; the whole 5’ 10” OF is gone and they have been drafting and signing bigger guys, with the tiny exception of Santana. He reminds you of a downsized Jackie Bradley Jr.? I’m gonna just slowly back away from this one. I don’t see how their swings are anything alike. Ok but legit question, does anybody have a comp for Watson’s swing?
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Post by philarhody on Jun 19, 2021 22:41:23 GMT -5
He reminds you of a downsized Jackie Bradley Jr.? I’m gonna just slowly back away from this one. I don’t see how their swings are anything alike. Ok but legit question, does anybody have a comp for Watson’s swing? The swing’s closer to Robinson Cano than Jackie Bradley Jr.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 20, 2021 6:49:15 GMT -5
It’s not just vibes; the whole 5’ 10” OF is gone and they have been drafting and signing bigger guys, with the tiny exception of Santana. He reminds you of a downsized Jackie Bradley Jr.? I’m gonna just slowly back away from this one. I don’t see how their swings are anything alike. Looking at him stature wise he looks like a smaller version of JBJ....You were talking about a swing and I was referring to size. He is a small guy and the Sox seem to be listing away from that type of player.
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Post by ocdss on Jun 20, 2021 6:52:55 GMT -5
He’s still in HS; does he have any more room to grow or fill out?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2021 7:17:31 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 20, 2021 8:30:21 GMT -5
He reminds you of a downsized Jackie Bradley Jr.? I’m gonna just slowly back away from this one. I don’t see how their swings are anything alike. Looking at him stature wise he looks like a smaller version of JBJ....You were talking about a swing and I was referring to size. He is a small guy and the Sox seem to be listing away from that type of player. Watson's taller than JBJ, as listed by most. 5'11" vs 5'10," though some sites call Watson 5' 9," which I'm guessing is an older measurement. JBJ, a college player when we met him, was/is much burlier.
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Post by patford on Jun 20, 2021 9:14:25 GMT -5
The fascination with Rocker completely escapes me.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 20, 2021 9:19:54 GMT -5
Looking at him stature wise he looks like a smaller version of JBJ....You were talking about a swing and I was referring to size. He is a small guy and the Sox seem to be listing away from that type of player. Watson's taller than JBJ, as listed by most. 5'11" vs 5'10," though some sites call Watson 5' 9," which I'm guessing is an older measurement. JBJ, a college player when we met him, was/is much burlier. The only listing I saw for Watson was 5'9" and when I saw video, (I know) I thought that height was generous. And yes JBJ appears natively stockier and larger framed....I'm always skeptical of figures given for height as the tendency is to overstate it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 20, 2021 10:12:34 GMT -5
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Post by ocdss on Jun 20, 2021 11:01:41 GMT -5
On some recent podcast, someone (Longenhagen I think?) dropped that Lieter might be closer 5’11” than 6’1”; player dimensions are probably about as accurate at the draft level as they are in MLB…
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 20, 2021 11:10:41 GMT -5
This came out after the past summer from lookoutlanding: “ At 5-foot-11, Watson is at least three inches shorter than any of the other prep shortstops at the top of his class. As it stands now, Watson tips the scales at just 170 pounds. Watson is a really well built kid. Don’t let the weight fool you, he’s got incredibly strong shoulders and a broad, thick back with a chest with some barrel to it. Most of his mass is carried in his core with his lower half and forearms lagging slightly behind.” The whole write up is excellent and Watson has since moved up this guys board after this spring so don’t read it and then quote it as current gospel. I know a lot of you are well versed, but if there are any new threadsters kinda just checking in to the draft scene, Joe Doyle at lookoutlanding does an in depth report an practically every prospect in the top 50. Just be sure to check the dates because he started pretty early last year so things can change. www.google.com/amp/s/www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2020/11/9/21551861/2021-mlb-draft-preview-khalil-watson
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Post by unitspin on Jun 20, 2021 16:07:38 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 20, 2021 17:42:58 GMT -5
I honestly don’t care about a hitters size if you can drive the ball, and it seems like he can drive a ball
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Post by unitspin on Jun 20, 2021 18:34:03 GMT -5
Not alot of buzz for fabian. Still hoping he slides to us in the second rd. Let's make it happen.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 20, 2021 21:00:45 GMT -5
Not alot of buzz for fabian. Still hoping he slides to us in the second rd. Let's make it happen. If he drops out of the first, odds are he goes back to college, right? Unless the team that takes him in rd 2 gives him over slot value
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