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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 24, 2021 18:14:08 GMT -5
If the quote from Law is accurate (that the market for Rocker is Texas, Boston, KC, and Washington) and Texas doesn't take him, his next home is at 7. At the top of the draft slot values decrease so quickly that the difference between those 3 slots is over 1.2 million. I don't think the Royals (no competitive balance balance round A, yes round B - pick is almost exactly 1 million in slot value) are going to go significantly overslot to sign him (though I could be wrong!). That could give a little negotiating room not necessarily to save anywhere like the full difference, but maybe like enough to sign a 150 - 300 ranked intriguing HS player after round 5. Hard to imagine more than 500k as you said. No idea if it would be "worth it" basically to be able to add what would essentially be a lottery ticket there. So I should probably also say that I don't put much stock into that rumor mill stuff beyond the top couple picks, and even then with a huge grain of salt (and I ignore it past around 15 or so). Nobody connected the Red Sox with Trey Ball at 7 seriously. Nobody had Jay Groome falling to 12. It's a crapshoot, in large part because a lot of the stuff we're talking about now re: negotiation (that isn't really negotiation) happens like, day of. Teams have an idea but my understanding is they don't usually float numbers ("will you sign for $X?") until that day or even that evening to guys. That's really interesting about the late float for numbers, but I guess it makes sense for the players negotiating. Yeah, I obviously don't trust much of that stuff, but I'll comment on it sort of humoring it as if it were the case because otherwise what's the point of most of so much of the draft content at this stage? Most players aren't playing at this point so there's only so much scouting to watch/read.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 24, 2021 22:48:02 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 25, 2021 7:27:01 GMT -5
BA's new mock draft: 1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer 2. Rangers: Jordan Lawlar 3. Tigers: Jackson Jobe 5. Orioles: Kahlil Watson 6. Diamondbacks: Henry Davis 7. Royals: Kumar Rocker 8. Rockies: Brady House 9. Angels: Will Taylor 10. Mets: Sal Frelick www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 25, 2021 8:33:17 GMT -5
Davis feels safer than Leiter with a pretty similar ceiling, but I’d be happy with either still.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 25, 2021 8:48:16 GMT -5
Jobe at 3 is something. Aware of the discussion and get the argument for it, just, wow. Like if you're the Rockies and get House at 8?
Especially given that the Tigers definitely aren't taking a pitcher. (joking around)
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 25, 2021 9:26:30 GMT -5
Gunnar Hogland fell out of Round 1 in BAs most recent draft. It's one mock and there's a long way between 29 and 40, but would you take Hogland at 40 if he slips that far? To me, that would be a no-brainer.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 25, 2021 9:55:49 GMT -5
Gunnar Hogland fell out of Round 1 in BAs most recent draft. It's one mock and there's a long way between 29 and 40, but would you take Hogland at 40 if he slips that far? To me, that would be a no-brainer. If hes signable then I definitely would be all for it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 25, 2021 10:00:35 GMT -5
I'm interested but he probably makes the most sense for a team with a Competitive Balance pick. Same with Jaden Hill.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 25, 2021 11:21:17 GMT -5
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 25, 2021 11:37:27 GMT -5
I was surprised to see Lawler mocked to the Red Sox yesterday. We haven't seen as much buzz with him as we've seen with the college players, and even Mayer earlier in the year. The one thing I am curious of, is last year there seemed to be a lot of talk about the "age analytics" and one of the reasons why they liked Blaze Jordan so much. Lawler turns 19 a week after the draft, and if that is something they put stock into, I wonder if that truly affects their interest, and why there is so little buzz connecting the Red Sox to him. You don't draft for need, but for best player available but it's not out of the realm of possibility that the two intersect this draft. The Sox are lacking at SS in the system, particularly with Lugo's struggles. At some point they'll need to replace Bogaerts at SS. Maybe Lawlor or Watson is looked at as the best player available (especially if Leiter and Davis are gone) - and coincidentally they'd happen to fill a need. I understand about the age thing, but I don't think that would dissuade the Sox from taking him if they felt he was the best player available at 4 (and if they're not that impressed with Rocker). I understand, I'm asking if the age model would play a small, or larger factor in how they stack their board accordingly. Particularly because it was a talking point last year, but I haven't seen much commentary around that this year. Is that enough to say put Watson ahead of Lawler on their board, or is it an enough of a demerit to drop him below 1 of the Vandy pitchers on their board? Or does his ceiling vault him ahead of the Vandy Ps, despite the age. Any insight to how much jostling the age analytics, positional value, ceiling, bonus demands, bonus leverage, positional value, and other causes on the Red Sox board, would be an all time fascinating read. I guess we'll get some more info when they make the pick.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 25, 2021 11:45:30 GMT -5
Ok this is my type of rumor.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 25, 2021 11:47:34 GMT -5
Jobe at 3 is something. Aware of the discussion and get the argument for it, just, wow. Like if you're the Rockies and get House at 8? Especially given that the Tigers definitely aren't taking a pitcher. (joking around) Interesting that Callis also in his latest mock had them taking Jobe. Wonder if there's some rumors going around there.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 25, 2021 14:37:30 GMT -5
Jobe at 3 is something. Aware of the discussion and get the argument for it, just, wow. Like if you're the Rockies and get House at 8? Especially given that the Tigers definitely aren't taking a pitcher. (joking around) Interesting that Callis also in his latest mock had them taking Jobe. Wonder if there's some rumors going around there. I think many of the mock drafts that get posted here have had the Tiger/Jobe connection in their write up (even if they dont go that direction in the mock) so there is something to it. How much though??
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Post by marrcus on Jun 25, 2021 14:47:13 GMT -5
To have Leiter, Davis, Watson, House all potentially around at #4 would be neurvana. OF Will Taylor the 6'0 QB/wrestler from SC -Clem- made quite a jump to #9.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 25, 2021 16:28:36 GMT -5
also interesting from that FG chat Resolution: Do you feel the industry has generally been moving away from pitcher height as meaningful? I get that taller pitchers release the ball closer to home but there’s a lot of “pitcher X [never been injured] is 5’11” and considered an injury/reliever risk” opposite “pitcher Y at 6’5” should be a workhorse starter in the rotation [as soon as he returns from major arm injury]” in scouting reports despite all pitchers just getting injured. 12:46 Eric A Longenhagen: It doesn’t feel like the industry is but I know I am. Shorter pitchers are more likely create flat, power pitcher’s angle on their fastballs, their shorter levers mean less stress on their elbow (theoretically, since the formula for torque includes distance from the fulcrum), and they tend to be more athletic (though that’s probably selection bias). blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-6-25/
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 25, 2021 16:45:26 GMT -5
Good start for Rocker. Mid 90s, 11Ks albeit it seems like NC State lost some guys to the coronavirus.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 25, 2021 17:30:43 GMT -5
Jobe at 3 is something. Aware of the discussion and get the argument for it, just, wow. Like if you're the Rockies and get House at 8? Especially given that the Tigers definitely aren't taking a pitcher. (joking around) Interesting that Callis also in his latest mock had them taking Jobe. Wonder if there's some rumors going around there. If I was a GM with a pick that high I wouldn’t touch a high school pitcher unless he was a certified mutant.
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Post by soxaddict on Jun 25, 2021 19:23:51 GMT -5
I'm interested but he probably makes the most sense for a team with a Competitive Balance pick. Same with Jaden Hill. Any chance the Sox get Adrian Del Castillo with their 2nd pick?
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Post by geostorm on Jun 25, 2021 20:53:46 GMT -5
Jobe at 3 is something. Aware of the discussion and get the argument for it, just, wow. Like if you're the Rockies and get House at 8? Especially given that the Tigers definitely aren't taking a pitcher. (joking around) Interesting that Callis also in his latest mock had them taking Jobe. Wonder if there's some rumors going around there.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 25, 2021 20:59:00 GMT -5
Kumar was dominant today vs NC State in the College WS. Constantly around the plate with outstanding velocity. Reminded me of Bob Gibson in his prime.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 25, 2021 21:05:29 GMT -5
To have Leiter, Davis, Watson, House all potentially around at #4 would be neurvana. OF Will Taylor the 6'0 QB/wrestler from SC -Clem- made quite a jump to #9. Hopefully none of those guys is taking that brain medicine. Free and clear of PEDs. Good position to be in with such highly rated top 4.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 26, 2021 8:52:35 GMT -5
Kumar was dominant today vs NC State in the College WS. Constantly around the plate with outstanding velocity. Reminded me of Bob Gibson in his prime. "NC State was missing four starting position players and had only 13 of its 27 players available for its Friday game, which was delayed an hour after the NCAA said it needed time to complete “health and safety protocols.” ... The regulars in the lineup were Austin Murr, who moved from first to left field; Jonny Butler, who moved from left to center; Luca Tresh at his usual catcher spot; Devonte Brown in his usual spot in right field; and Vojtech Mensik, who moved from third base to shortstop. Carson Falksken played second in place of J.T. Jarrett, Eddie Eisert was the designated hitter instead of Terrell Tatum, DeAngelo Giles moved into Vojtech’s spot at third and Sam Highfill, the No. 2 starting pitcher, played first base." apnews.com/article/college-sports-basketball-college-basketball-mens-college-basketball-health-eef7cf307cd761ccc3c4009dd0341250
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 26, 2021 9:04:48 GMT -5
Interesting that Callis also in his latest mock had them taking Jobe. Wonder if there's some rumors going around there. I'm SOLD on Henry Davis!! Love Leiter but prefer a positional player. Not ever going to say this kid can be Gary Carter, but I can dream. Great interview. O'Dowd, to me, is always a voice I like hearing from. Surprised he hasn't been hired again for a GM.
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 26, 2021 9:31:48 GMT -5
I'm SOLD on Henry Davis!! Love Leiter but prefer a positional player. Not ever going to say this kid can be Gary Carter, but I can dream. Great interview. O'Dowd, to me, is always a voice I like hearing from. Surprised he hasn't been hired again for a GM. What a great interview. I was really impressed with Henry saying there aren't potential improvements he might make in catching but goals he will definitely achieve in the future and he is ready for all struggles he will face. Watching this makes me want to draft one of Mayer, Leiter, or Davis and trade for the other two, as improbable as that might be.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 26, 2021 10:07:05 GMT -5
To have Leiter, Davis, Watson, House all potentially around at #4 would be neurvana. OF Will Taylor the 6'0 QB/wrestler from SC -Clem- made quite a jump to #9. No it wouldn't. You can still select only one of them. If all four of them are worthwhile picks at #4, at least two of them will be available, and probably 3. The amount of agonizing over this #4 pick is silliness. The bigger benefit out of this draft is going to be the ability to draft at #4 in EACH SUCCEEDING round of the draft, not just the first one.
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