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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by texs31 on Jun 24, 2021 7:13:29 GMT -5
Looking back at the previous mocks, it seems like Texas being in on Lawlar was, at least in part, an assumption based on him being local. Meanwhile, Leiter and Watson have been consistently in the mentions of late (with Mayer being gone).
Detroit's interest in reported interest in Jobe goes all the way back to Law's 5/27 Mock.
EDIT - would LOVE an updated mock from Law and Collazo for some more data points. Been a while for both of them.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jun 24, 2021 8:20:22 GMT -5
Looking back at the previous mocks, it seems like Texas being in on Lawlar was, at least in part, an assumption based on him being local. Meanwhile, Leiter and Watson have been consistently in the mentions of late (with Mayer being gone). Detroit's interest in reported interest in Jobe goes all the way back to Law's 5/27 Mock. EDIT - would LOVE an updated mock from Law and Collazo for some more data points. Been a while for both of them. Ask and ye shall receive! Law's new mock (6/24): 1. Pittsburgh: Mayer 2. Texas: Lawlar 3. Detroit: Leiter 4. Boston: Davis 5. Baltimore: Cowser 6. Arizona: Watson 7. Kansas City: Rocker 8. Colorado: House Link
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 24, 2021 8:28:28 GMT -5
Looking back at the previous mocks, it seems like Texas being in on Lawlar was, at least in part, an assumption based on him being local. Meanwhile, Leiter and Watson have been consistently in the mentions of late (with Mayer being gone). Detroit's interest in reported interest in Jobe goes all the way back to Law's 5/27 Mock. EDIT - would LOVE an updated mock from Law and Collazo for some more data points. Been a while for both of them. Ask and ye shall receive! Law's new mock (6/24): 1. Pittsburgh: Mayer 2. Texas: Lawlar 3. Detroit: Leiter 4. Boston: Davis 5. Baltimore: Cowser 6. Arizona: Watson 7. Kansas City: Rocker 8. Colorado: House LinkOther notable comment: 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The market for Rocker is weirdly specific — it’s Texas, Boston, KC and Washington, with the Mets a possibility, too. The Royals have also been heavy on House and are naturally linked to Jobe since he’s sort of local, although they haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since they took Ashe Russell in 2015.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 24, 2021 8:41:09 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 24, 2021 10:03:40 GMT -5
I keep on hearing ROckers name linked to the Sox, yet I haven't seen anyone mocking him to Boston in a really long time. I wonder if there's any credit there to him being a legit option at #4? I'm just going to guestimate that if these rumblings are true then perhaps he's seriously in play there depending on who is off the board, and if that's Leiter/Davis coming off the board then the Sox must not be high on most of the Lawlar/Mayer/Wilson class. I don't know what I'm talking about.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 24, 2021 10:17:03 GMT -5
Feels like Rocker comes in to play if Mayer, Leiter and Davis are off the board. Then it comes down to Rocker vs Lawlar (based on the guys "linked" to Boston).
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Post by incandenza on Jun 24, 2021 11:25:52 GMT -5
Looking back at the previous mocks, it seems like Texas being in on Lawlar was, at least in part, an assumption based on him being local. Meanwhile, Leiter and Watson have been consistently in the mentions of late (with Mayer being gone). Detroit's interest in reported interest in Jobe goes all the way back to Law's 5/27 Mock. EDIT - would LOVE an updated mock from Law and Collazo for some more data points. Been a while for both of them. Ask and ye shall receive! Law's new mock (6/24): 1. Pittsburgh: Mayer 2. Texas: Lawlar 3. Detroit: Leiter 4. Boston: Davis 5. Baltimore: Cowser 6. Arizona: Watson 7. Kansas City: Rocker 8. Colorado: House LinkDang it, Law always says this thing about Boston being in on the three college guys, but he never clarifies whether they would be in on Mayer or Lawlar if either of them were available at #4.
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Post by jdb on Jun 24, 2021 11:53:03 GMT -5
At this point would Rocker be under slot?
I think my order of preference would be
1 Mayer 2 Davis or Leiter 3 Lawlar or Watson
That’s five I would be really happy with and depending on money would be okay with Rocker, Jobe and House.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 24, 2021 12:19:10 GMT -5
At this point would Rocker be under slot? I think my order of preference would be 1 Mayer 2 Davis or Leiter 3 Lawlar or Watson That’s five I would be really happy with and depending on money would be okay with Rocker, Jobe and House. Again, I don't think at 4 that you're getting any of the guys we generally understand to be in play for the pick (Mayer, Lawlar, House, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, maybe Watson) at a price that I'd really call "underslot" in the sense that it would change your drafting strategy later (i.e., saving something like >$500k). I think at "underslot" you're talking guys like Jobe, Frelick, McClain, etc in the next tier. I just feel like for the Red Sox, taking any of those 7, they'd be justified in saying "I'm a top 4 talent in this draft, pay me accordingly if you agree." That's a guess though, admittedly.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 24, 2021 12:36:25 GMT -5
I would imagine that the Sox may have a preference for certain players in that top tier everyone talks about. (Davis, House, Lawlar, Leiter, Mayer, Rocker, Watson) etc etc. If that guy is there, that's who they pick.
So for example, the Sox might distinctively place Leiter over Davis, House and Lawlar even though the fluidity between all the mock drafts may place those guys on equal ground. If that's the case, I would imagine there's no way the Sox are going to pick one of those guys over Leiter if he is there and someone else is willing to sign for 500K less. Leiter is the pick in that scenario. Not saying Leiter is that guy, it could be someone else they value over the rest of what's there just using him as an example.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 24, 2021 12:43:07 GMT -5
Someone can say they’re a “top 4 guy” but that requires someone drafting them there;) With the fluidity in the tiers (I could see the seven listed above as having been in the top 4 of some drafts but falling in others) if you fall to 4 can you be assured there’s a soft landing in the top 5 or 6 if the Sox pass? If not, someone like Rocker or Watson can swear up and down that he’s top 5 talent, but he’ll drop to 7 and lose a million or more as slot. Or risk going back into the draft next year.
It only matters if 1) Sox have a clear preference or 2) the player knows the next team would take him (like Davis and Os).
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 24, 2021 12:44:15 GMT -5
At this point would Rocker be under slot? I think my order of preference would be 1 Mayer 2 Davis or Leiter 3 Lawlar or Watson That’s five I would be really happy with and depending on money would be okay with Rocker, Jobe and House. Again, I don't think at 4 that you're getting any of the guys we generally understand to be in play for the pick (Mayer, Lawlar, House, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, maybe Watson) at a price that I'd really call "underslot" in the sense that it would change your drafting strategy later (i.e., saving letting like >$500k). I think at "underslot" you're talking guys like Jobe, Frelick, McClain, etc in the next tier. I just feel like for the Red Sox, taking any of those 7,they'd be justified in saying" I'm a top 4 talent in this draft, pay me accordingly if you agree." That's a guess though, admittedly. If the quote from Law is accurate (that the market for Rocker is Texas, Boston, KC, and Washington) and Texas doesn't take him, his next home is at 7. At the top of the draft slot values decrease so quickly that the difference between those 3 slots is over 1.2 million. I don't think the Royals (no competitive balance balance round A, yes round B - pick is almost exactly 1 million in slot value) are going to go significantly overslot to sign him (though I could be wrong!). That could give a little negotiating room not necessarily to save anywhere like the full difference, but maybe like enough to sign a 150 - 300 ranked intriguing HS player after round 5. Hard to imagine more than 500k as you said. No idea if it would be "worth it" basically to be able to add what would essentially be a lottery ticket there.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 24, 2021 12:55:23 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 24, 2021 12:56:39 GMT -5
I want the crosschecker who recommended picking Nick Yorke last year to be the one calling who should be picked at 4. That dude's genius!
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Jun 24, 2021 12:57:11 GMT -5
Thanks. Just turned on my TV and put on MLB Network before coming to the painful realization that today is not Friday.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 24, 2021 13:10:06 GMT -5
A name I've seen pop up in this piece and the last is Jackson Linn, OF, Rindge and Latin School (MA). I'm always intrigued by the Boston local talent and (falsely) assume those players will do whatever they can to be drafted by the Red Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 24, 2021 13:10:21 GMT -5
Again, I don't think at 4 that you're getting any of the guys we generally understand to be in play for the pick (Mayer, Lawlar, House, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, maybe Watson) at a price that I'd really call "underslot" in the sense that it would change your drafting strategy later (i.e., saving letting like >$500k). I think at "underslot" you're talking guys like Jobe, Frelick, McClain, etc in the next tier. I just feel like for the Red Sox, taking any of those 7,they'd be justified in saying" I'm a top 4 talent in this draft, pay me accordingly if you agree." That's a guess though, admittedly. If the quote from Law is accurate (that the market for Rocker is Texas, Boston, KC, and Washington) and Texas doesn't take him, his next home is at 7. At the top of the draft slot values decrease so quickly that the difference between those 3 slots is over 1.2 million. I don't think the Royals (no competitive balance balance round A, yes round B - pick is almost exactly 1 million in slot value) are going to go significantly overslot to sign him (though I could be wrong!). That could give a little negotiating room not necessarily to save anywhere like the full difference, but maybe like enough to sign a 150 - 300 ranked intriguing HS player after round 5. Hard to imagine more than 500k as you said. No idea if it would be "worth it" basically to be able to add what would essentially be a lottery ticket there. So I should probably also say that I don't put much stock into that rumor mill stuff beyond the top couple picks, and even then with a huge grain of salt (and I ignore it past around 15 or so). Nobody connected the Red Sox with Trey Ball at 7 seriously. Nobody had Jay Groome falling to 12. It's a crapshoot, in large part because a lot of the stuff we're talking about now re: negotiation (that isn't really negotiation) happens like, day of. Teams have an idea but my understanding is they don't usually float numbers ("will you sign for $X?") until that day or even that evening to guys.
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Post by beantown on Jun 24, 2021 13:17:34 GMT -5
To those concerned with Watson's height, please refer to number 1 prospect and obvious stud Wander Franco, who stands at a towering 5'10"
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 24, 2021 14:38:39 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 24, 2021 14:51:59 GMT -5
Rocker is not going in the top 5. His fastball elicits almost zero swing and misses. I believe Callis, who shies away from saying anything definitive, when he says the following, “ 6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt MLB Pipeline's No. 1-rated prospect before the season, Rocker won't go higher than this and could slip further”.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 24, 2021 15:24:46 GMT -5
A name I've seen pop up in this piece and the last is Jackson Linn, OF, Rindge and Latin School (MA). I'm always intrigued by the Boston local talent and (falsely) assume those players will do whatever they can to be drafted by the Red Sox. Sort of a late bloomer, wasn't on much of the showcase circuits previously and started showing eye-popping exit velo's (he had the 2nd highest exit velo yesterday at the combine) AND throwing at 95-97 mph off the mound. He's committed to Tulane to be a 2 way guy, I though he'd be a tough sign, but given his participation and I'm hearing whispers he would be willing to sign if the money is right. Can't help but think of a similar player, Masyn Winn from last year's class when it comes to Linn.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 24, 2021 15:28:01 GMT -5
I was surprised to see Lawler mocked to the Red Sox yesterday. We haven't seen as much buzz with him as we've seen with the college players, and even Mayer earlier in the year. The one thing I am curious of, is last year there seemed to be a lot of talk about the "age analytics" and one of the reasons why they liked Blaze Jordan so much. Lawler turns 19 a week after the draft, and if that is something they put stock into, I wonder if that truly affects their interest, and why there is so little buzz connecting the Red Sox to him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2021 15:58:25 GMT -5
I was surprised to see Lawler mocked to the Red Sox yesterday. We haven't seen as much buzz with him as we've seen with the college players, and even Mayer earlier in the year. The one thing I am curious of, is last year there seemed to be a lot of talk about the "age analytics" and one of the reasons why they liked Blaze Jordan so much. Lawler turns 19 a week after the draft, and if that is something they put stock into, I wonder if that truly affects their interest, and why there is so little buzz connecting the Red Sox to him. You don't draft for need, but for best player available but it's not out of the realm of possibility that the two intersect this draft. The Sox are lacking at SS in the system, particularly with Lugo's struggles. At some point they'll need to replace Bogaerts at SS. Maybe Lawlor or Watson is looked at as the best player available (especially if Leiter and Davis are gone) - and coincidentally they'd happen to fill a need. I understand about the age thing, but I don't think that would dissuade the Sox from taking him if they felt he was the best player available at 4 (and if they're not that impressed with Rocker).
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Post by jayhawk on Jun 24, 2021 16:06:35 GMT -5
Thinking out loud a bit here but if the Sox WERE to try and go under slot would Jackson Jobe represent the best possible value there? He seems to be the prototype for guy you'd want to take a chance on. High talent guy whose main knock against is inexperience. If he succeeds to the level of his talent the 4th pick alone is entirely justified. If he falls short, you're still hedging with, theoretically, more talent later in the draft.
Talent-wise he appears to be at least on par with Rocker and the knock on him is simply inexperience. Is there that big of a perceived gap between he and Leiter that drafting Jobe under slot at 4 would be unreasonable?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 24, 2021 16:18:44 GMT -5
Thinking out loud a bit here but if the Sox WERE to try and go under slot would Jackson Jobe represent the best possible value there? He seems to be the prototype for guy you'd want to take a chance on. High talent guy whose main knock against is inexperience. If he succeeds to the level of his talent the 4th pick alone is entirely justified. If he falls short, you're still hedging with, theoretically, more talent later in the draft. Talent-wise he appears to be at least on par with Rocker and the knock on him is simply inexperience. Is there that big of a perceived gap between he and Leiter that drafting Jobe under slot at 4 would be unreasonable? Just thinking out loud myself here but I think drafting Jobe if you can save a ton on your draft pool is perfectly justifiable. Ceiling wise he’s in the same front tier as the other guys being mocked to us. Some people might not like the risk associated with drafting HS pitchers but the actual move itself is perfectly justifiable:
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