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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by funkybuddha on Jul 9, 2021 12:54:13 GMT -5
My "two cents" that matters only to me. : )
1. Lawlar (Mayer top choice but almost assuredly won't be around. Leiter scares me. Lawler will hit IMO and can do everything else at SS) 2. Jaden Hill (Reward FAR outweighs the risk here IMO. Personally don't see a big difference between him and Leiter and if he comes back post TJ as good or better than he is the steal of draft in 2nd) 3. Spencer Schwellenbach, Cody Morrisette, Nick McClain. SS pitch or Short has serious tools. CM is better player than he was earlier this year. NM probably going to UCLA but has really improved himself in a short period of time.
None of this will happen which is undoubtedly very very good for the Sox and all of us here. I have proven myself time and time again to be a terrible GM but this exercise is always fun.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 9, 2021 13:00:23 GMT -5
Just watched some video of Lawlar and Watson on Kiley McD's twitter feed (plus a cool shot of how Leiter's ball moves during his delivery). I think I like Lawlar's swing better. Watson's seems a bit long, Lawlar's is very direct with good bat speed. In Chaim I trust. I don't quite have enough data to trust Chaim like that yet. I'm maybe half way there. I have vivid memories of when the Celtics drafted Blue Jays 2b Danny Ainge and one of my friend said, well, if there is any way to make this work out, Red Auerbach will figure it out. That's trust. This was just a little while after he had draft-and-followed Larry Bird in a move that led to them changing the rules, and then traded the 1 and 13 picks for underperforming Robert Parrish and the pick that got them Kevin McHale.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 9, 2021 13:04:30 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 9, 2021 13:15:21 GMT -5
Kind of funny he notes that when Davis actually posts great EVs. I can understand the launch angle thing (his stance and swing could be prettier).
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Jul 9, 2021 13:22:43 GMT -5
Kind of funny he notes that when Davis actually posts great EVs. I can understand the launch angle thing (his stance and swing could be prettier). None of those numbers are right for Davis' "career." It's his last two (of three) years.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 9, 2021 13:28:09 GMT -5
Rangers or Tigers could still pick him.
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Post by marrcus on Jul 9, 2021 13:47:47 GMT -5
All that "behind the scenes work" means, is Leiter is clear in his desire to be a Red Sox draft (to RS mgt) where he may be demonstrably indifferent to the other three possibilities. It doesn't matter, if Texas wants him. I still think he's going top 3. But If he's around I'd say RS will take him over Davis and Lawlar.
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Post by Canseco on Jul 9, 2021 14:00:39 GMT -5
While he certainly wouldn't get the kind of cash a bonus from the 2 or 3 slot would yield, Leiter might consider the NCAA's new name, image, and likeness opportunities if he wants to play hardball with Texas and/or Detroit. Unlikely, but it's something his camp should reiterate. Plus, with his father's long big league career, money probably isn't the biggest sticking point. Stand firm, Jack, and get to Boston!
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 9, 2021 14:03:48 GMT -5
While he certainly wouldn't get the kind of cash a bonus from the 2 or 3 slot would yield, Leiter might consider the NCAA's new name, image, and likeness opportunities if he wants to play hardball with Texas and/or Detroit. Unlikely, but it's something his camp should reiterate. Plus, with his father's long big league career, money probably isn't the biggest sticking point. Stand firm, Jack, and get to Boston! The Fangraphs pod cited above discusses that, noting that Al Leiter had career earnings of $68M. They are skeptical of whether NCAA baseball is hot enough to provide a lot of NIL money right now.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 9, 2021 14:33:20 GMT -5
Haven’t loved what I’ve heard on the podcasts about Davis. Seems unlikely to ever be a good catcher. Could be a good bat but I’d hope for more at 4.
I think I’d prefer they take a chance on Rocker if they’re set on a college guy.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2021 14:45:26 GMT -5
Just sort of a general draft philosophy point here... A lot of people have advocated a preference for high-ceiling guys when you have a rare chance to pick near the top of the draft. But isn't it more like a rare opportunity to pick a legitimately high floor player?
2011 was a famously deep draft, and if you look at the second round picks from that year only four players from that round have put up 5 WAR so far. Heck, only six have put up more than 1 WAR. My point here is: there's no such thing as a high floor pick when you're not picking at the top of the draft. The floor - and in fact, most likely outcome - for every pick is not making it at all.
On the other hand, with a #4 pick the Red Sox are probably in a position to draft a player who is more likely than not to have a decent major league career. That's especially true of the college guys, and most especially true of college position players (i.e., Davis). If you knew for a fact that Davis would turn into Kyle Schwarber, or that Leiter would turn into, I don't know, Aaron Sele... wouldn't it be prudent to jump on that? And then you can use your later picks for the high-ceiling lottery picks. (The fact that Davis and Leiter also have ceilings that are plenty high is simply a bonus.)
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Jul 9, 2021 14:51:52 GMT -5
Hi, so I'm kinda new to the MLB draft because I usually focus on the players we picked not all the prospects before the draft. Is it normal that there are SO many rumors flying around a few days before the draft? I've heard Kumar to the Rangers at 2, Henry Davis to the Pirates, Sal Frelick to the PIRATES at 1, etc. Is it because of this years uncertainty at the top of the draft, or is it always like this? My read? The rumors are always there, we just don't pay much attention to them because we're picking in the teens or 20's.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 9, 2021 15:02:57 GMT -5
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Post by aladaz on Jul 9, 2021 15:04:15 GMT -5
Just sort of a general draft philosophy point here... A lot of people have advocated a preference for high-ceiling guys when you have a rare chance to pick near the top of the draft. But isn't it more like a rare opportunity to pick a legitimately high floor player?
2011 was a famously deep draft, and if you look at the second round picks from that year only four players from that round have put up 5 WAR so far. Heck, only six have put up more than 1 WAR. My point here is: there's no such thing as a high floor pick when you're not picking at the top of the draft. The floor - and in fact, most likely outcome - for every pick is not making it at all.
On the other hand, with a #4 pick the Red Sox are probably in a position to draft a player who is more likely than not to have a decent major league career. That's especially true of the college guys, and most especially true of college position players (i.e., Davis). If you knew for a fact that Davis would turn into Kyle Schwarber, or that Leiter would turn into, I don't know, Aaron Sele... wouldn't it be prudent to jump on that? And then you can use your later picks for the high-ceiling lottery picks. (The fact that Davis and Leiter also have ceilings that are plenty high is simply a bonus.)
Hard not to agree with that, also a reasonable argument for Rocker if Leiter and Davis are gone. With his slider, it's hard to imagine Rocker isn't a major leaguer, barring injury (an important caveat, obviously, but presumably the team will have some insight into risk here by seeing his medicals and putting him through an exam). and if you can save $900k-$1.2m by signing him underslot (putting him at #6-#7 money, where it's likely he slides to) and use that to take higher upside guys later, even better- floor + ceiling.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2021 15:12:54 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 9, 2021 15:20:42 GMT -5
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Post by orion09 on Jul 9, 2021 15:27:53 GMT -5
Just sort of a general draft philosophy point here... A lot of people have advocated a preference for high-ceiling guys when you have a rare chance to pick near the top of the draft. But isn't it more like a rare opportunity to pick a legitimately high floor player? 2011 was a famously deep draft, and if you look at the second round picks from that year only four players from that round have put up 5 WAR so far. Heck, only six have put up more than 1 WAR. My point here is: there's no such thing as a high floor pick when you're not picking at the top of the draft. The floor - and in fact, most likely outcome - for every pick is not making it at all. On the other hand, with a #4 pick the Red Sox are probably in a position to draft a player who is more likely than not to have a decent major league career. That's especially true of the college guys, and most especially true of college position players (i.e., Davis). If you knew for a fact that Davis would turn into Kyle Schwarber, or that Leiter would turn into, I don't know, Aaron Sele... wouldn't it be prudent to jump on that? And then you can use your later picks for the high-ceiling lottery picks. (The fact that Davis and Leiter also have ceilings that are plenty high is simply a bonus.)
Right, I guess that's one school of thought - decrease the downside risk because the opportunity is rare. If you're the Sox, and you get one shot to choose between Player A, who has a 0.4 probability of being a 5 WAR player, and Player B, who has a 0.8 chance of being a 2.5 WAR player (equal value, in other words), maybe you take the high floor guy because it decreases the risk that you get nothing out of the deal. If you're Texas or Baltimore, and you know you're going to have multiple high picks, you can take shots on the lower prob guys because it's more likely that you'll hit on one of them. Put another way, there's a lot more noise if you have only one shot than if you have three shots. On the other hand, aren't 5 WAR players more than twice as valuable as 2.5 WAR players because a) they're rarer and b) there's a cap on how many players you can have on the field at the same time? Like, three 6 WAR position players are way more valuable in practice than eighteen 1 WAR position players because you can't play all eighteen guys at once.
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Post by rasimon on Jul 9, 2021 15:34:12 GMT -5
i am hoping for Leiter
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 9, 2021 15:42:15 GMT -5
Do we know how long each team has to make a pick in the first round? Three minutes, five minutes?
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Jul 9, 2021 15:42:33 GMT -5
Since we're doing final predictions: I'm sticking with my Feb. 22 prediction that the Sox draft Brady House based on sheer upside. The thing I like about this FO is that it's a leak-proof ship and Chaim is really good at controlling the flow of information. That we have heard nothing until today about it possibly being House is par for the course.
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Post by jdb on Jul 9, 2021 15:42:45 GMT -5
Any rumors of the Leiter dollar figure?
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Post by kman22 on Jul 9, 2021 15:45:31 GMT -5
Any rumors of the Leiter dollar figure? Would think if he's pushing his way to Boston, it's slot or higher.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 9, 2021 15:46:11 GMT -5
Any rumors of the Leiter dollar figure? It'll be heavier. Sorry, I'll see myself out now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2021 16:15:35 GMT -5
I would prefer Leiter, but will need to talk myself into Davis or Lawlar if need be......ok, done now. I'm cool with either of those 3 or even Rocker.
My guess is that Mayer goes #1, Leiter winds up with Texas, Jobe goes to Detroit and the Sox grab Henry Davis, which would be fine with me.
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Post by tonyc on Jul 9, 2021 16:17:57 GMT -5
Haven’t loved what I’ve heard on the podcasts about Davis. Seems unlikely to ever be a good catcher. Could be a good bat but I’d hope for more at 4. I think I’d prefer they take a chance on Rocker if they’re set on a college guy. Yeah feel that way too, provided he’s only projected to be a .260’s hitter with good power- or is he expected to be better?
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