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2021 MLB Draft
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2021 16:19:33 GMT -5
Keith Law's final mock from the 2020 draft: 17. Boston Red Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State I’d heard they were heavy on Crow-Armstrong, but if he’s gone they’d go for the best college bat here — probably Bailey. theathletic.com/1862825/2020/06/10/keith-laws-2020-mlb-mock-draft-final-first-round-projection/ Obviously, Bailey was gone at 17, but the Sox didn't take Crow-Armstrong or a college bat. Don't trust him or his sources one bit. Callis, Mayo, Kiley and the BA guys are much more reliable sources IMO. I was particularly put off by Law's quick "I told you so" when Yorke struggled in his first month of organized ball while being two and a half years younger than the average player in A-ball. Haven't seen anything from him about Yorke in the past month or so... (but then again, I don't really follow Law anymore) He did have a response to "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and has a ceiling as a utility guy if he works hard.
It's disappeared from the Internet.
Do we have a date for the Yorke gloat? The Pedroia mistake came about a week into Pedey's breakout.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 9, 2021 16:21:28 GMT -5
Haven’t loved what I’ve heard on the podcasts about Davis. Seems unlikely to ever be a good catcher. Could be a good bat but I’d hope for more at 4. I think I’d prefer they take a chance on Rocker if they’re set on a college guy. Agreed on Davis, particularly on hearing that his swing is all strength based rather than batspeed. If it turns out that the bat doesn't play he's a nobody. As far as taking a chance on Rocker, I THINK, I might agree at this point although Rocker scares me too. At least in his case his floor seems to be a late inning reliever.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2021 16:22:54 GMT -5
Just sort of a general draft philosophy point here... A lot of people have advocated a preference for high-ceiling guys when you have a rare chance to pick near the top of the draft. But isn't it more like a rare opportunity to pick a legitimately high floor player?
2011 was a famously deep draft, and if you look at the second round picks from that year only four players from that round have put up 5 WAR so far. Heck, only six have put up more than 1 WAR. My point here is: there's no such thing as a high floor pick when you're not picking at the top of the draft. The floor - and in fact, most likely outcome - for every pick is not making it at all.
On the other hand, with a #4 pick the Red Sox are probably in a position to draft a player who is more likely than not to have a decent major league career. That's especially true of the college guys, and most especially true of college position players (i.e., Davis). If you knew for a fact that Davis would turn into Kyle Schwarber, or that Leiter would turn into, I don't know, Aaron Sele... wouldn't it be prudent to jump on that? And then you can use your later picks for the high-ceiling lottery picks. (The fact that Davis and Leiter also have ceilings that are plenty high is simply a bonus.)
I see Schwarber as a very possible comp for Davis and that's why I don't want Chaim & Co. to use the #4 pick on Davis. Schwarber was drafted 4th overall by the Cubs, stayed behind the plate for about 5 minutes, and gave them 6 WAR in 6 years.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2021 16:24:32 GMT -5
Haven’t loved what I’ve heard on the podcasts about Davis. Seems unlikely to ever be a good catcher. Could be a good bat but I’d hope for more at 4. I think I’d prefer they take a chance on Rocker if they’re set on a college guy. Yeah feel that way too, provided he’s only projected to be a .260’s hitter with good power- or is he expected to be better? A .260s hitter with good power... So like, Max Muncy or Kris Bryant? I'd take it!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2021 16:26:18 GMT -5
Haven’t loved what I’ve heard on the podcasts about Davis. Seems unlikely to ever be a good catcher. Could be a good bat but I’d hope for more at 4. I think I’d prefer they take a chance on Rocker if they’re set on a college guy. Yeah feel that way too, provided he’s only projected to be a .260’s hitter with good power- or is he expected to be better? There is nobody in the world, let alone on this board who can give you an accurate projection on what type of player Davis will become. You look at his tools and makeup. Then project. It’s really a crapshoot. Injuries and numerous other issues will develop
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 9, 2021 16:28:35 GMT -5
Just sort of a general draft philosophy point here... A lot of people have advocated a preference for high-ceiling guys when you have a rare chance to pick near the top of the draft. But isn't it more like a rare opportunity to pick a legitimately high floor player?
2011 was a famously deep draft, and if you look at the second round picks from that year only four players from that round have put up 5 WAR so far. Heck, only six have put up more than 1 WAR. My point here is: there's no such thing as a high floor pick when you're not picking at the top of the draft. The floor - and in fact, most likely outcome - for every pick is not making it at all.
On the other hand, with a #4 pick the Red Sox are probably in a position to draft a player who is more likely than not to have a decent major league career. That's especially true of the college guys, and most especially true of college position players (i.e., Davis). If you knew for a fact that Davis would turn into Kyle Schwarber, or that Leiter would turn into, I don't know, Aaron Sele... wouldn't it be prudent to jump on that? And then you can use your later picks for the high-ceiling lottery picks. (The fact that Davis and Leiter also have ceilings that are plenty high is simply a bonus.)
I see Schwarber as a very possible comp for Davis and that's why I don't want Chaim & Co. to use the #4 pick on Davis. Schwarber was drafted 4th overall by the Cubs, stayed behind the plate for about 5 minutes, and gave them 6 WAR in 6 years.
Yeah, or Evan Gattis.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2021 16:41:46 GMT -5
Hi, so I'm kinda new to the MLB draft because I usually focus on the players we picked not all the prospects before the draft. Is it normal that there are SO many rumors flying around a few days before the draft? I've heard Kumar to the Rangers at 2, Henry Davis to the Pirates, Sal Frelick to the PIRATES at 1, etc. Is it because of this years uncertainty at the top of the draft, or is it always like this? My read? The rumors are always there, we just don't pay much attention to them because we're picking in the teens or 20's. Some years there's a slam-dunk 1-1 (like Strasburg or Harper... not going to try to spell the Orioles' catcher's name) but even then there's often a lot of unknowns in the top 10 or even top 5.
Because you can't trade draft picks in baseball and there is a prescribed amount of total money that teams are allowed to give to their draft picks, teams often draft guys who are not necessarily the best player available but are close and are willing to accept a lower signing bonus, thus allowing the team to use the extra money on other guys later on. That's called drafting a guy "under slot" and it's pretty difficult for draft "experts" to predict that stuff; so guessing the exact order that things will go is just that: guessing.
This year there is no slam-dunk guy at the top, so there's really no telling what might happen, which will make it really fun to watch. When you have six or eight guys who are all pretty close in perceived talent and you're picking first overall, like PIT, the best strategy might be simply to have all six guys give you a price they're willing to accept and take the lowest bid. Hard to tell which kid that will be but it has huge ramifications on who goes 2, 3, 4, etc.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2021 16:46:17 GMT -5
I see Schwarber as a very possible comp for Davis and that's why I don't want Chaim & Co. to use the #4 pick on Davis. Schwarber was drafted 4th overall by the Cubs, stayed behind the plate for about 5 minutes, and gave them 6 WAR in 6 years.
Yeah, or Evan Gattis. If you could guarantee me that Davis would turn into at least Evan Gattis or Kyle Schwarber, I would be pretty amped about that pick.
But if you think that's more like an average outcome for him then maybe you think another player has a higher floor...
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Post by juanfatj on Jul 9, 2021 16:57:29 GMT -5
Something in my gut tells me Davis will not be the guy. Bloom never really telegraphs his moves, and if he is the pick I am comfortable with trusting Bloom. I can not get excited about Davis for some reason.
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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jul 9, 2021 16:58:18 GMT -5
Red Sox farm is currently lacking a number one. My hope is we pick the best available starting pitcher from the following three:
1. Jack Leiter 2. Jackson Jobe 3. Kumar Rocker
Using the fourth pick on a pitcher has more risk than a position player but we need a future ace, we may not pick this high again for another decade, roll the dice Chaim.
Love the anticipation!
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 9, 2021 17:01:32 GMT -5
Besides McDaniel throwing out that "Gattis swing" thing last week is there any real information about his barrel speed or whatever?
The data that is actually out there is that his exit velocities rank right there with the Torkelson, Sabato, Rutschman elites of the past few years. In 2020 he was in the 95th percentile in exit velocity and was up to at least 110 mph this year on a HR this year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2021 17:02:22 GMT -5
I was particularly put off by Law's quick "I told you so" when Yorke struggled in his first month of organized ball while being two and a half years younger than the average player in A-ball. Haven't seen anything from him about Yorke in the past month or so... (but then again, I don't really follow Law anymore) He did have a response to "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and has a ceiling as a utility guy if he works hard.
It's disappeared from the Internet.
Do we have a date for the Yorke gloat? The Pedroia mistake came about a week into Pedey's breakout.
With the caveat that I originally heard about it second-hand (perhaps from the SP chat) because I don't follow Law much anymore, below is an excerpt from his chat of 5/27/21 (that I just found by googling -- not quite Pedey-esque but plenty of snark...):
Will: Given the Yorke pick last year, is there a decent chance the Red Sox go underslot at four so they can spend more on later draft picks? If so, who might the Sox take as the underslot guy?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard that at all. Yorke is off to a rough start too, for a guy who was supposed to be able to hit above all else, so that may deter them from doing the same.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2021 17:03:25 GMT -5
*(perhaps from the SP podcast)
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 9, 2021 17:07:03 GMT -5
Yeah feel that way too, provided he’s only projected to be a .260’s hitter with good power- or is he expected to be better? There is nobody in the world, let alone on this board who can give you an accurate projection on what type of player Davis will become. You look at his tools and makeup. Then project. It’s really a crapshoot. Injuries and numerous other issues will develop You are spot on. Not even the Red Sox FO know what Davis or Leiter or anyone else will become. They will take their best educated guess. And that guess will be seasoned with all kinds of considerations like over slot, under slot, took HS guys last year. Some here will disagree and some will shout Hallelujah. But it is, as you have said, something of a crapshoot. Past results prove that.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2021 17:17:41 GMT -5
More detail on BA's mock, basically has the team boards estimated as:
Pit: Mayer, Davis, Lawlar
Tex: Mayer, Leiter, Lawlar, Davis, Rocker Det: Mayer; Jobe or House Bos: Leiter, Davis, House
The other name that has been linked to us prominently is Rocker. I wouldn't rule out Watson or Jobe, either. Some explanations in a moment.
A few general points first:
- If you haven't yet read Kevin Goldstein's "What Goes on in Draft Rooms," at Fangraphs, do so now! It's full of super-useful info.
- As has been pointed out, bonus size is actually more important here than contract size is in MLB free agency. Odds are that this is the biggest payday they'll ever get.
- Because the top 8 guys are clustered so closely together, players have an unusually strong ability to help pick their teams, by giving them different asking prices. Easier to ask for too much then to say you'll accept less, however. Late surprises may hence be in store.
- These guys all dream of making it to MLB, but the even bigger goal is to be a champion. That makes the Red Sox (with 80% of all the WS victories of the 8 teams, going back to 2003, 35% of the Championship Series appearances, and 33% of the DS appearances) a desired landing place. They can help their chances by asking less money from the Sox, but that conflicts with their desire to max out their payday.
Some points about the Sox:
1. I'm not assuming that Leiter is ahead of Davis on their board.
2. It would be credible if Lawlar really wants to play in Texas (and also if he didn't, of course). One way the Rangers pass on Leiter is if Lawlar tells them he'll take slot or less in order to play at home, and the difference in $ surpasses any extra liking they have for Leiter.
3. I'll be over the moon if they draft House, because they only do that if they're convinced his floor is a lot higher than perceived. That's all makeup, I think. I don't know if I posted here about how much I liked his makeup before he was linked to us (if so, I get no points), but I know I hadn't heard it when I did. The point is, I wasn't looking for it as an explanation of anything, so there was no confirmation bias.
4. I still think that trading Eovaldi and re-signing E-Rod to a team-friendly extension is the way to go this winter. One reason to draft Leiter would be if they planned to forego re-signing E-Rod ... but then, you probably need an extra arm if you're going to deal Eovaldi.
5. If they draft Rocker, it has to mean that they've figured out the difference between this year and his past and know how to fix it.
6. Jobe is the best HS pitching prospect in years. Specifically, according to one report, in the last 7 years. I had to look that up. Brady Aiken, whose arm damage became known after he was drafted 1/1, and whose TJ surgery came before he was drafted 17 the next year, and is currently out of baseball (and the news) after maxing out at low-A (and not pitching well there).
But teams have Jobe's medicals ... if the Sox shock the world and take him, it means, I think, that they have not only seen that the medicals are surprisingly clean, but they've figured out why his delivery isn't as stressful as it looks (and, probably, how it can be made even less so, as they did with Kopech). Have the Tigers done all that, and is that why they're waffling between House and Jobe? Are the Sox secretly planning to take whoever they don't?
Yes, there are scenarios where Davis and Leiter are on the board and they take House or Jobe. If that happens, do not adjust your television set (by hurling objects at it). The Sox control the horizontal and the vertical (pitch movement and launch angle). Just keep repeating "Nick Yorke!" to yourself until the swelling goes down.
Probably Davis, though. Or Leiter.
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shagworthy
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Posts: 1,521
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Post by shagworthy on Jul 9, 2021 17:22:18 GMT -5
He did have a response to "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and has a ceiling as a utility guy if he works hard.
It's disappeared from the Internet.
Do we have a date for the Yorke gloat? The Pedroia mistake came about a week into Pedey's breakout.
With the caveat that I originally heard about it second-hand (perhaps from the SP chat) because I don't follow Law much anymore, below is an excerpt from his chat of 5/27/21 (that I just found by googling -- not quite Pedey-esque but plenty of snark...):
Will: Given the Yorke pick last year, is there a decent chance the Red Sox go underslot at four so they can spend more on later draft picks? If so, who might the Sox take as the underslot guy?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard that at all. Yorke is off to a rough start too, for a guy who was supposed to be able to hit above all else, so that may deter them from doing the same.
I'm not a fan of Law at all, you can have your opinion but you don't have to be a narcissistic ahole about it. He's always rubbed me the wrong way with his smartest guy in the room behavior until he isn't and then he doesn't even address his failure. I take pretty much anything he says with the tiniest grain of salt. I don't think he makes any bold predictions, just goes with what the industry behind him says and repackages it to appear original. He's the Dane Cook of draft/player analysts.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 9, 2021 17:30:04 GMT -5
In the age of information at ones fingertips this thread is the epitome of information overload. Has there ever been a longer one here? So this will sound weird, but the only one coming to mind involved a kid trying to get a girlfriend that devolved into a discussion of bagels... If you know, you know. LOL... that must have been a doozey
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 9, 2021 18:53:23 GMT -5
Something I just thought of. The Pirates final 3 are Mayer, Lawlar, and Davis, and if its going to come down to price like reports are saying, wouldn't it between Lawlar and Davis. Because if Mayer is supposed to go in the top 3, wouldn't that limit his discount price. We've seen reports saying that the Rangers arn't afraid of Leiter's asking price. We also seen reports saying the Rangers would take Mayer over Leiter. The slot value for the 2nd is about 7.8M dollars. Meanwhile Detroit have been scouting Mayer all spring. The #3 pick is valued at 7.2M. Meanwhile, Davis is projected to go anywhere from Boston at #4(6.6M) to Arizona at #6(5.7M). Davis could make a 400k-1.3M more. As for Lawlar, he has gone from #2 in the spring to now #6 or #8(5.1M) to the Rockies. But he still has a shot to go #1. He can get an extra 1.3-1.9M if he makes deal. So unless he really wants to go to the Pirates, or doesn't want to go to the Rangers and Tigers, why would Mayer take a discount bigger than 600k?
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 9, 2021 18:58:56 GMT -5
I keep reading that Davis is a projected .260 hitter.
Don't most .260 hitters have a lot more swing and miss in their approach than Davis?
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 9, 2021 19:25:46 GMT -5
I keep reading that Davis is a projected .260 hitter. Don't most .260 hitters have a lot more swing and miss in their approach than Davis? If you flip it around and look at the top 15 guys with lowest strikeout percentages this year there is surprisingly a lot of guys in the .260-.270 range; Jose Ramairez, Edman, Arrenado, Blackmon, Carlos Santana, Lemahieu… They also mostly have high walk rates which is a strength for Davis as well…so it seems plausible. A lot of those guys have hit for better averages in the past so maybe the list will shrink a bit in the 2nd half. Kevin Newman has a 6% k rate and is batting .206…obviously a much different hitter than Davis but just weird
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2021 19:41:25 GMT -5
Something I just thought of. The Pirates final 3 are Mayer, Lawlar, and Davis, and if its going to come down to price like reports are saying, wouldn't it between Lawlar and Davis. Because if Mayer is supposed to go in the top 3, wouldn't that limit his discount price. We've seen reports saying that the Rangers arn't afraid of Leiter's asking price. We also seen reports saying the Rangers would take Mayer over Leiter. The slot value for the 2nd is about 7.8M dollars. Meanwhile Detroit have been scouting Mayer all spring. The #3 pick is valued at 7.2M. Meanwhile, Davis is projected to go anywhere from Boston at #4(6.6M) to Arizona at #6(5.7M). Davis could make a 400k-1.3M more. As for Lawlar, he has gone from #2 in the spring to now #6 or #8(5.1M) to the Rockies. But he still has a shot to go #1. He can get an extra 1.3-1.9M if he makes deal. So unless he really wants to go to the Pirates, or doesn't want to go to the Rangers and Tigers, why would Mayer take a discount bigger than 600k? This is why I think Leiter gets to Boston. He's pretty much the only guy who won't be willing to take a haircut from the top 3.
Cherington is not going to pay full freight for Mayer and there should be at least one kid willing to go a good bit under slot to be #1 overall. If Mayer falls to Texas, it's likely his price tag will be lower than Leiter's -- is Daniels going to pass on a less-expensive Mayer? Do the Tigers believe they are close enough to contention to pay full fare (or even over slot) for Leiter? Jobe or House, both of whom they have been connected to, would be much cheaper. And then there were none...
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Post by alan on Jul 9, 2021 20:33:00 GMT -5
Something I just thought of. The Pirates final 3 are Mayer, Lawlar, and Davis, and if its going to come down to price like reports are saying, wouldn't it between Lawlar and Davis. Because if Mayer is supposed to go in the top 3, wouldn't that limit his discount price. We've seen reports saying that the Rangers arn't afraid of Leiter's asking price. We also seen reports saying the Rangers would take Mayer over Leiter. The slot value for the 2nd is about 7.8M dollars. Meanwhile Detroit have been scouting Mayer all spring. The #3 pick is valued at 7.2M. Meanwhile, Davis is projected to go anywhere from Boston at #4(6.6M) to Arizona at #6(5.7M). Davis could make a 400k-1.3M more. As for Lawlar, he has gone from #2 in the spring to now #6 or #8(5.1M) to the Rockies. But he still has a shot to go #1. He can get an extra 1.3-1.9M if he makes deal. So unless he really wants to go to the Pirates, or doesn't want to go to the Rangers and Tigers, why would Mayer take a discount bigger than 600k? I totally agree with you. I've heard some people (Kiley McDaniels, Kevin and Eric from FG...) say that if the Pirates think the talent level is similar, but one player's price is lower, then the Pirates will take the one with lower price. I also think there's a reason why almost every mock has Mayer going to the Pirates: we still don't have a clue on what the Pirates will do
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 9, 2021 20:52:06 GMT -5
Would Jobe cut a deal? Because after the last podcast I’m sold.
I’ll be back on Leiter tomorrow, and then Davis, and then….
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Post by bcsox on Jul 9, 2021 21:02:20 GMT -5
With regard to Law, as someone who follows his articles and his chats he has been very open numerous times about being wrong in his evaluation. He has gone so far as to say something in the neighborhood of it was his biggest miss. The guy is asked to evaluate thousands of players, he is going to miss many guys. He gets a lot more right than wrong, even if his opinions are not shared by the majority.
Eric van I would be stunned if the RS drafting Leiter has anything to do with how they handle Evoladi going forward. You think before he does a day in the system, they are essentially saying in two years he is going to be in our major league staff as a mid rotation starter. I think there is a good chance that if they draft him that he doesn’t throw another pitch this year, and is it likely that they are more or less certain that he is 2 years away?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Jul 9, 2021 21:09:30 GMT -5
With regard to Law, as someone who follows his articles and his chats he has been very open numerous times about being wrong in his evaluation. He has gone so far as to say something in the neighborhood of it was his biggest miss. The guy is asked to evaluate thousands of players, he is going to miss many guys. He gets a lot more right than wrong, even if his opinions are not shared by the majority. Eric van I would be stunned if the RS drafting Leiter has anything to do with how they handle Evoladi going forward. You think before he does a day in the system, they are essentially saying in two years he is going to be in our major league staff as a mid rotation starter. I think there is a good chance that if they draft him that he doesn’t throw another pitch this year, and is it likely that they are more or less certain that he is 2 years away? I agree that you do not decide a first round pick on baseball based on positional need. Pick the best player available.
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