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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 9, 2021 21:46:02 GMT -5
I've looked at draft issues for maybe an hour as I'm busy but I have some thoughts on how I'd do it:
1) This year should be a deep draft I would think, and with the covid situation recently, the draft is more of a crap shoot than normal I would think. The data is not as comprehensive as normal, especially recently. It's not completely crazy to save some money signing the first pick. I think it would be ill advised to not roll the dice with a top guy though since we rarely get this sort of opportunity.
2) Drafting the best college hitter is more likely to succeed than a top pitcher but I don't see them passing on Leiter. Leiter is a slam dunk to me if he's available and he wants the Redsox because he will back up a Brink's truck and play hardball on signing. His path to the bigs would be maybe pretty fast and the stars would be all aligned for him if he drops to 4. 6 years in the Redsox system sounds better than most other options.
3) Drafting one of the top SS options makes a ton of sense. I like Davis and his intangibles but power hitters are a real crap shoot. They are also worth a ton if they pan out but how in the world did this guy not get drafted out of high school? When I see Davis I see Bryce Brentz who put up similar numbers at a similar school in college. It's a risk. A top SS is just a lot more probable success variable. Davis's strikeout to walk ratio is extremely impressive though. He is a mature hitter with great contact rates apparently. If it's Davis that's a solid choice right? It's just a tad more risky but I'm fine with any of these top options.
4) I'd probably draft a SS if it isn't Leiter. If Ty Madden would sign for slot 10 money I'd consider him. That slider looks near impossible to hit. I'm fine with taking some risk but at # 4 I'd definitely factor in the probability of success as the biggest factor. All these top 10 guys have a significant chance to make it big.
5) Please don't draft a high school pitcher. I don't care if his last name is "GOD".
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 9, 2021 22:00:25 GMT -5
I've looked at draft issues for maybe an hour as I'm busy but I have some thoughts on how I'd do it: 1) This year should be a deep draft I would think, and with the covid situation recently, the draft is more of a crap shoot than normal I would think. The data is not as comprehensive as normal, especially recently. It's not completely crazy to save some money signing the first pick. I think it would be ill advised to not roll the dice with a top guy though since we rarely get this sort of opportunity. 2) Drafting the best college hitter is more likely to succeed than a top pitcher but I don't see them passing on Leiter. Leiter is a slam dunk to me if he's available and he wants the Redsox because he will back up a Brink's truck and play hardball on signing. His path to the bigs would be maybe pretty fast and the stars would be all aligned for him if he drops to 4. 6 years in the Redsox system sounds better than most other options. 3) Drafting one of the top SS options makes a ton of sense. I like Davis and his intangibles but power hitters are a real crap shoot. They are also worth a ton if they pan out but how in the world did this guy not get drafted out of high school? When I see Davis I see Bryce Brentz who put up similar numbers at a similar school in college. It's a risk. A top SS is just a lot more probable success variable. 4) I'd probably draft a SS if it isn't Leiter. If Ty Madden would sign for slot 10 money I'd consider him. That slider looks near impossible to hit. I'm fine with taking some risk but at # 4 I'd definitely factor in the probability of success as the biggest factor. All these top 10 guys have a significant chance to make it big. 5) Please don't draft a high school pitcher. I don't care if his last name is "GOD". Do not understand the Brentz/Davis comparison. Brentz struck out more against much worse competition. The ACC >>>>> wherever Middle Tennessee State plays. Now there’s obviously risk involved but that’s literally every draft pick ever
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2021 22:36:38 GMT -5
With regard to Law, as someone who follows his articles and his chats he has been very open numerous times about being wrong in his evaluation. He has gone so far as to say something in the neighborhood of it was his biggest miss. The guy is asked to evaluate thousands of players, he is going to miss many guys. He gets a lot more right than wrong, even if his opinions are not shared by the majority. Eric van I would be stunned if the RS drafting Leiter has anything to do with how they handle Evoladi going forward. You think before he does a day in the system, they are essentially saying in two years he is going to be in our major league staff as a mid rotation starter. I think there is a good chance that if they draft him that he doesn’t throw another pitch this year, and is it likely that they are more or less certain that he is 2 years away? Leiter affects the E-Rod re-signing over the next 4 or 5 years, and the E-rod re-signing affects keeping or trading Eovaldi before next year, and hence the makeup of the 2022 rotation, even though Leiter's in the minors.
I think they if they don't trade Eovaldi this winter, they likely let him walk when his contract is up after 2022, if they re-sign E-Rod. In 2023 you have Sale, E-Rod, Whitlock, Pivetta, Houck, and Seabold, and Mata, Bello and maybe Ward, Winckowski, and German as rookies.
So, if that's your plan, you do trade him this winter. You can get a prospect package that's considerably more valuable than the draft pick you'd get by keeping him and giving him a QO. You have the same list for 2022 as for 2023 minus the potential rookies.
Now, add Leiter to the 2023 list and for the years that follow, and it's too much talent to use, so if you had him in the system you might let E-Rod walk this winter. But if you also trade Eovaldi, you're 2022 rotation is a bit thin. You probably keep Perez.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 9, 2021 23:11:44 GMT -5
Eric: respectfully I feel like you are putting the Whambo on Leiter by moving guys off the current staff to make room for him before he has even thrown a pitch in say High A. I really like the kid, and I see Walker Buehler/David Gordon comps for him, but there is literally thousands of guys drafted with resumes like Leiter who never became the mid rotation starter you have penciled him in to be in 2023x
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2021 23:19:49 GMT -5
Eric: respectfully I feel like you are putting the Whambo on Leiter by moving guys off the current staff to make room for him before he has even thrown a pitch in say High A. I really like the kid, and I see Walker Buehler/David Gordon comps for him, but there is literally thousands of guys drafted with resumes like Leiter who never became the mid rotation starter you have penciled him in to be in 2023x For all this Leiter talk, he could very well wind up with Texas making all this conjecture a very moot point.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2021 0:59:38 GMT -5
Eric: respectfully I feel like you are putting the Whambo on Leiter by moving guys off the current staff to make room for him before he has even thrown a pitch in say High A. I really like the kid, and I see Walker Buehler/David Gordon comps for him, but there is literally thousands of guys drafted with resumes like Leiter who never became the mid rotation starter you have penciled him in to be in 2023x It's a scenario where they're sky-high on him and have what they feel are specific good reasons to think his path to MLB is as mercurial as the best estimates. I actually realized I should have made that clear. And I think it's unlikely, in fact.
Re the bolded claim, I'd like to know the track record of college pitchers taken in the top 5 by teams with the drafting record and organizational analytical and informational resources that that the Sox currently have. If they take him over Davis et al, the "trust Bloom" rule means that they really, really like him, and with good reason, and then they may well start thinking along these lines.
There is a fundamental confound in draft analysis that is almost never considered, and that is that the teams making the highest draft picks have usually gotten into that position because they are bad at drafting.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 10, 2021 1:06:31 GMT -5
No doubt Brentz had more swing and miss but they both were considered "the best college hitter in the draft". The walk to strikeout ratio of Davis is extremely encouraging though. Even a #1 pick has a high percentage of wash outs. If I had to guess their pick I think it's Davis.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2021 1:19:27 GMT -5
I don't remember where I saw the analysis, but being old for the class in HS is a significant, and bad, predictor. And youth has some benefits (which is why I was ecstatic with Casas, who I still think is going to be an absolute monster). Combined with Lawlar's Ks... too many red flags for me. I'd be really happy if Lawlar was a Groome-type situation where he fell to the Sox with a pick in the early teens, but at #4 those warts are too unsightly. Edit: not the one I was thinking of but it makes some good points, particularly focusing on slope of the curve www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/The general consensus is that teams recognize this now and do a pretty good job adjusting for it. One specific example that sticks out to me was that Bobby Witt Jr. was old for his class and several twitter know-it-all were critical of the idea that he was a top prospect because of it and the analysts who had seen him were clear they recognized he was old for his class but also are basing evaluations on where he is in terms of age advancement and that he still graded out very well. I don't think Lawlar being a little old for his class is sneaking up on anyone. Not saying it’s sneaking up on anyone, just that if I had my druthers I’d err on the side of a significantly *relatively* younger player, a la Leiter as an eligible sophomore. I remember Witt too, and the other half of that was a lot of swing-and-miss. I’m still not convinced on him for the same reasons. Lawlar has five 5+ future tools, I just am wary of older HS hitters with hit tool issues the way I am 19 y/o prep RHPs with delivery/command issues. There are certain tools I think are more age-sensitive when it comes to how concerning they are for red flags.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2021 1:26:04 GMT -5
I get a strong "pitchability" vibe from Leiter. He just seems like he'll become ever more polished. The size/physicality stuff is overrated. For every CC Sabathia there are 20 Ben McDonalds. Leiter has insane spin/rise, and we all know after Koji and Okajima and guys like Daniel Cabrera or 90% of his career Nate Eovaldi that velocity alone doesn't miss bats, especially in the zone. Leiter's also got good command and a deep repertoire, as well as the MLB background, which really does seem to impart a degree of familiarity and comfort for a lot of guys. I definitely prefer him over Rocker, although I sure do like Davis and there's a cadre of SS prospects who should be pushing on the door right around when Bogey might have to move off. It's a good spot to be in. I think what they end up doing really depends on where the talent line separates...if it's 1-2-3 and then the rest, I imagine they go underslot with a guy they really like makeup-wise in the next tier (tangent: makeup is why I *love* Gilberto Jimenez as a prospect...he gets glowing reports, now if he'd only walk more). If a 1-2-3 falls to them, they take him, which represents a "bargain" in and of itself. Screwing up the 4th pick is a really, really big faux pas. If it's kind of a muddle/gradual drop in talent in the top 10, with no clear separation of a small group from the rest...yeah, it seems certain they go underslot for a guy they're really high on, because the allotment difference between 4 and 8-10 is huge. Picking a 60 FV over a 50 is easy. Choosing between 50s is an art. I've been so grumpy with the Sox for 15 months that I really hope they do something impressive, because Bogey and Babyface are the only reason I watch nowadays. I saw all of 5 minutes last year, and when ERod developed myocarditis from COVID I threw my hands up. Guy can't catch a break health-wise. And seeing Mookie sign immediately with LA didn't help either. Not a fan anymore, although he did clarify for me in crystal fashion how much I appreciate Bogey, who clearly sees himself as a Red Sox. Good to hear that stuff about Leiter (and to hear from you). I have so much on my plate right now beyond the Sox [*] that for the most part I'm waiting to see who they'll pick rather than fully educating myself on all the candidates. Saves time!
* Working on three books simultaneously (it should be one, but I get ideas), hoping to empty a storage unit by the end of June (having already missed a May goal), heading the programming for the local cinephile screening group, being sole rather than occasional host of the screenings (twice per three weeks) now that COVID is ending, planning to reorganize the living room in conjunction (which includes getting a custom blackout curtain, installing a smart motorized rod assembly for it, redoing the carpeting, fixing some house wiring, comissioning a custom TV stand, and moving bookcases around and repopulating them) ... and dealing with an overwhelming host of unresolved Real Life issues like a lost (but apparently not found) credit card, the one that I use for a dozen automatic payments and do not want to cancel. I should call them today! (he said for the fourth day in a row).
Eric you have way too much frickin’ energy, man. I think you’ve got at least a decade or two on me and I take a nap after my afternoon Finnish and Russian lessons. And I can only muster work on one book. I’m still high on Leiter, I think he’s a future 2a or better. Legit 1 potential. Lol, and thanks it’s good to be back. Mookie leaving still stings tho.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2021 1:34:38 GMT -5
Rocker having a bit of a horror start against Arizona, 3 runs allowed in the first with multiple hard hit balls (fb sitting around 93). Throwing more changeups than you might otherwise see from him and fewer sliders for some reason. Branden Boissiere (1b) of Arizona crushed a double and is maybe a round 3-7 guy, who was also super hot against Ole Miss in the Super Regional. Jacob Berry also doubled and is a name to keep track of for the future. Daniel Susac is a catcher and showed great patience in his at bat against Rocker. He's another one to watch for the future, though his single was less of a barrel and more of a hard ground ball that found a hole. I'm not watching the game just box score checking but in fair after 2 innings he's at 4 Ks. Hopefully he settles in because overall I like him and want to root for him not necessarily as the guy I want at 4 but just he seems likeable. Same. Rocker just seems like a good guy. Almost *too* good, which brings up the “fire” question for some. I will say that if the Sox took him, I’d be ecstatic at this point because as Eric noted, I’d figure they like his makeup and talent, and they think there’s something minor amiss that they can tweak and get him back to form, which is a plus FB and a 70 slider. Asa Lacy with better pedigree/track record. I’m good with that.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2021 1:46:07 GMT -5
All of this debate and worry, but I am just glad that there is a nice tier 1 pool of draft picks. So barring some crazy way off the board decision, we should be adding a legitimate high end prospect to the rankings. I still go back to my question of, do you draft a position you have more history of success developing, or do you trust high end skill to develop despite the track record? My guess is most people would vote along the lines of 'best prospect regardless of position' or even a need based 'we need pitching talent in the org'. But given the Trey Ball experience, I am wondering if people have changed tune and want the highest floor potential of high skill and development history. End of the day, I'll be shocked if Bloom picks someone that I won't be thrilled with. I think (hope/assume) teams consider their org skills as far as BPA. But they also certainly have their biases. Hit tool is a big one for the Sox; I could see them heavily weighting hit (Yorke, Cannon) to the detriment of other tools, while assuming they can develop power (Duran, hopefully Jimenez) with tweaks and find the guy a position. They also seem to like raw arm strength and sharp sliders so maybe they figure they can tweak for command and develop a third pitch or tweak the FB/use a cutter (Houck, Light, Buttrey, Zeferjahn, Ward come to mind).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2021 6:26:32 GMT -5
No doubt Brentz had more swing and miss but they both were considered "the best college hitter in the draft". The walk to strikeout ratio of Davis is extremely encouraging though. Even a #1 pick has a high percentage of wash outs. If I had to guess their pick I think it's Davis. Welcome back. This is nonsense though. Bryce Brentz wasn't even considered the best college hitter the Red Sox drafted that year. The comparison doesn't make sense at all.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2021 7:46:20 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 10, 2021 7:56:10 GMT -5
I’m in the camp of wait and see right now. No one has any idea what’s going to happen tomorrow and we won’t until after the Tigers make their pick. All I know is that we’ll pick the best player for the system. It might not be who we want, but after the Yorke pick last year I trust in the scouting department. Can’t wait for 7 tomorrow.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 10, 2021 9:03:43 GMT -5
Just a random thought regarding Leiters elite spin rates. Are college players allowed to use the sunscreen/rosin combo or something similar. I didn’t see a similar crackdown in the college game so I have to assume most are using it. I wonder how the world if you are scouting a kid what you would do with that variable. For instance if you were scouting Garret Richards, and you are the RS, I imagine you probably wouldn’t sign him if you knew what the effect on his stuff would be without the stickie.
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Post by jdb on Jul 10, 2021 9:35:18 GMT -5
Up until early this week I was Leiter and Davis but now I’m not sure if I want to bother with Leiter at $8M or so that it would take. I might would prefer Rocker and save a little and then take a first round talent that falls to 40. Also I heard on the PG pod they were comping House to Arenado. Just glad Red Sox fans aren’t depending on me bc I have changed tunes several times this past week.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 10, 2021 9:49:45 GMT -5
Draft start time.
So I can see the draft starts at 7 pm. But I’m wondering if that’s just pre-draft coverage, what time is Pitt actually on the clock?
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 10, 2021 10:04:25 GMT -5
Just a random thought regarding Leiters elite spin rates. Are college players allowed to use the sunscreen/rosin combo or something similar. I didn’t see a similar crackdown in the college game so I have to assume most are using it. I wonder how the world if you are scouting a kid what you would do with that variable. For instance if you were scouting Garret Richards, and you are the RS, I imagine you probably wouldn’t sign him if you knew what the effect on his stuff would be without the stickie. His spin rates aren’t really elite. He has an unusually low release point that pulls down on the ball and gives it the appearance of rising based on where the eye is used to seeing it cross the plate…or something blogs.fangraphs.com/jack-leiters-fastball-exemplifies-his-talent/
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Post by bluechip on Jul 10, 2021 10:13:32 GMT -5
No doubt Brentz had more swing and miss but they both were considered "the best college hitter in the draft". The walk to strikeout ratio of Davis is extremely encouraging though. Even a #1 pick has a high percentage of wash outs. If I had to guess their pick I think it's Davis. Teams actually have been pretty good at drafting first overall traditionally. From 1965 to 2012 only two first rounders failed to make the majors (then in 2013-14 the Astros drafted Appel and and Aiken. I appreciate that a lot of those guys never did a lot, but compare that to fourth overall. A first overall should at least be expected to do enough in the minors to get to the majors.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 10, 2021 10:31:29 GMT -5
If Bryce Brentz would give me hesitation about anyone it would be Ethan Wilson, who is also projected in that 36 range and played in the SBC.
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Post by jbsox on Jul 10, 2021 10:34:02 GMT -5
Eric: respectfully I feel like you are putting the Whambo on Leiter by moving guys off the current staff to make room for him before he has even thrown a pitch in say High A. I really like the kid, and I see Walker Buehler/David Gordon comps for him, but there is literally thousands of guys drafted with resumes like Leiter who never became the mid rotation starter you have penciled him in to be in 2023x Yeah usually you want to let it happen naturally where if someone is forcing their way onto the majors you can always trade from surplus starting pitching later on. Saying that I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Eovaldi in the offseason if he continues to pitch well, and stay healthy. He might fetch a nice return to help restock the system even more. Maybe even Perez could fetch something too. I hope we can re-sign Erod to a reasonable deal. Whitlock and Houck may be ready to join the rotation next year. Sale, Erod, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Houck possible rotation. Seabold, Bello, Groome closing in with Mata and Ward returning from surgery. Wow if you add Leiter to the mix. It’s a nice problem to have. 😊
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Post by marrcus on Jul 10, 2021 11:42:58 GMT -5
My guess is Pitt is on the clock at 7:05 after a 5 min introduction but maybe MLB throw a few sponsors on so it could be later than that. Each team has 4 min's so RS should have their selection done by 7:21 or so.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 10, 2021 11:43:13 GMT -5
Niko Kavadas would be an interesting guy to pick - 1b or DH only, senior sign, but arguably the best pure power hitter in college ball this season. He absolutely mashed the regionals this year - dude hit 5 homers in 3 games in the regionals, then hit another against Mississippi St in the Super Regionals. Ball just flies of his bat in incredible fashion. Knows how to take a walk too, though he also strikes out plenty - 3 true outcomes type. Ought to be available in the third, could even last through the fifth. Killed the Cape Cod League when he played there too so some experience showing the power is present in wood bar leagues too. Has played some third in the past, but not an athlete in the slightest - bad runner and apparently bad arm.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 10, 2021 12:01:52 GMT -5
Having just listened to the Chin Music draft podcast while scanning through the Red Sox depth chart at SS, I'm starting to come around on Lawlar, who will almost certainly be there at #4. The biggest knocks on him are that he's 19 (something that Jim Callis vehemently poo-pooed for a pretty interesting reason) and that he struck out too much the first half of his senior year, which I think he attributed to a bad decision to take more pitches. On the plus side, he's very toolsy, still #1 on Kiley's board (and probably some others') and he's widely seen as the most likely of the top prep SSs to stick at SS.
To that last point, I get that you don't draft for need but drafting a guy who fills a need isn't a bad thing. There are currently no locks at SS in the system (unless you really believe Downs can stick there long-term, which I don't). Xander is likely to get a multi-year extension sometime soon but it's pretty easy to project him moving to LF after four or five years, when a guy like Lawlar might be ready for primetime. One thing you have access too at #4 that you don't further down the draft is the toolshed HS SS and with several at the top of this year's board, that would seem to be a good way to take advantage of this position.
I guess one question that comes to mind (for whoever is picked at #4, really) is where would Lawlar rank on the SP60? Above or below Downs?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2021 13:12:38 GMT -5
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