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Post by kman22 on Sept 28, 2020 22:02:32 GMT -5
The excitement of following the race for the 1st overall pick is now gone and July seems so far away. Even if the entire top 10 changes between now and then, it's fun to kill time reading about the kind of talent that could be available to the Red Sox.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 29, 2020 8:47:55 GMT -5
For all of you craving draft content, BA put out their first mock: 1. Kumar Rocker 2. Adrian Del Castillo 3. Brady House 4. Jordan Lawlar5. Jud Fabian 6. Jack Leiter 7. Matt McLain 8. Ethan Wilson 9. Colton Cowser 10. Jaden Hill On Lawlar: www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2020 8:51:16 GMT -5
That would take cre of the "do you draft a catcher that high" issue:)
Miles to go, but the first two picks should be good. I wonder as others commented above, whether given the risk of the first early picks that we saw in the draft retrospectives in this thread, Chaim chooses to get a discount at 4 and spread it among the second and thrid round picks. Volume.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 29, 2020 9:14:11 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Sept 29, 2020 9:45:54 GMT -5
According to some insiders it seems like the 2021 draft class has the best HS SS talent in more than a decade. According to most insiders Leiter is the 2nd best arm in the draft. What "insiders" are you referring to bc I'm seeing that this is not true (but it seems most of your posts are based on this "fact"). Meanwhile PG (updated 9/21, I believe) had him 6th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) Prospects Live (also 9/21) had him 7th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) MLB.com (9/14?) has him as the 6th best College prospect and 3rd best College P BA (9/16) does have him as the 2nd best College prospect (though they did mock him 6th for whatever that is worth). So you want to say that you think he's the 2nd best arm in the draft. Fine. You want to say that's who you think they should take. Also fine. But using "he's the 2nd best college as arm" as though it's an accepted fact or the industry consensus as part of your arguments is just false. Unless you have at least 3 more updates from "insiders" (mind you, even though it's early, I'm still looking forward to updates from Law, Longerhans and McDaniel) it's factually not true.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 29, 2020 10:00:47 GMT -5
Jack or Jordan would be great, as both mocks assume continued performance and even improvement over a whole year for both. I don’t mind the best prep bat, or the second best college arm or bat (which seems to be where we pick regardless of who that turns out to be in 10 months). I’m increasingly interested in the second pick. This draft is surprisingly deep in the risky HS catcher demographic ( looking at you Ford), and HS SS (hello Mooney). Gonna be a fun year.
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Post by orion09 on Sept 29, 2020 15:00:02 GMT -5
I think I'm looking forward to the 2nd and 3rd round picks as much as the 1st.
Picking higher in those rounds (plus the larger draft pool) is almost the equivalent of our usual 1st and 2nd round picks!
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Post by unitspin on Sept 29, 2020 15:48:08 GMT -5
According to most insiders Leiter is the 2nd best arm in the draft. What "insiders" are you referring to bc I'm seeing that this is not true (but it seems most of your posts are based on this "fact"). Meanwhile PG (updated 9/21, I believe) had him 6th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) Prospects Live (also 9/21) had him 7th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) MLB.com (9/14?) has him as the 6th best College prospect and 3rd best College P BA (9/16) does have him as the 2nd best College prospect (though they did mock him 6th for whatever that is worth). So you want to say that you think he's the 2nd best arm in the draft. Fine. You want to say that's who you think they should take. Also fine. But using "he's the 2nd best college as arm" as though it's an accepted fact or the industry consensus as part of your arguments is just false. Unless you have at least 3 more updates from "insiders" (mind you, even though it's early, I'm still looking forward to updates from Law, Longerhans and McDaniel) it's factually not true. Both mock drafts just posted had leiter as the second best arm am I missing something here?
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 29, 2020 16:30:24 GMT -5
I’d admire your loyalty to young Jack Leiter unitspin. I admit, if he keeps progressing he’d be such a fun guy to have.
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Post by texs31 on Sept 29, 2020 18:08:20 GMT -5
What "insiders" are you referring to bc I'm seeing that this is not true (but it seems most of your posts are based on this "fact"). Meanwhile PG (updated 9/21, I believe) had him 6th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) Prospects Live (also 9/21) had him 7th overall and 3rd P (also 3rd college P) MLB.com (9/14?) has him as the 6th best College prospect and 3rd best College P BA (9/16) does have him as the 2nd best College prospect (though they did mock him 6th for whatever that is worth). So you want to say that you think he's the 2nd best arm in the draft. Fine. You want to say that's who you think they should take. Also fine. But using "he's the 2nd best college as arm" as though it's an accepted fact or the industry consensus as part of your arguments is just false. Unless you have at least 3 more updates from "insiders" (mind you, even though it's early, I'm still looking forward to updates from Law, Longerhans and McDaniel) it's factually not true. Both mock drafts just posted had leiter as the second best arm am I missing something here? Probably the part where they ranked them differently than they mocked them. BC teams have different reasons for drafting players (different philosophies and trends which, this early, mockers try and replicate. And you, somehow, missed that you said rated/ranked not mocked. 2 very different things. You may have also missed the fact that 2 (number of mocks that have him 2nd O taken) is less than 3 (number of updated rankings that have him 3rd).
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Post by unitspin on Sept 29, 2020 19:01:28 GMT -5
Both mock drafts just posted had leiter as the second best arm am I missing something here? Probably the part where they ranked them differently than they mocked them. BC teams have different reasons for drafting players (different philosophies and trends which, this early, mockers try and replicate. And you, somehow, missed that you said rated/ranked not mocked. 2 very different things. You may have also missed the fact that 2 (number of mocks that have him 2nd O taken) is less than 3 (number of updated rankings that have him 3rd). So you stepped in dung and now your trying to shake yourself out. I said he is the second best arm in the draft per the experts, where exactly has he not been listed as the second best arm in the draft. Almost every source has him as the second arm off the board are you losing it. You picked 3 out of dozens of list and that means what?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2020 19:05:12 GMT -5
I'm the worst of 1990s pre-Sabremetric GMs, dreaming on toolsy 17 year olds. Andy Yount, Corey Jenkins, come on down.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 29, 2020 19:53:11 GMT -5
The 2020 MLB Draft thread had 19 pages of comments. This one already has 27...
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 29, 2020 19:55:09 GMT -5
The 2020 MLB Draft thread had 19 pages of comments. This one already has 27... I disagree with your facts...somehow
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2020 23:24:04 GMT -5
I'm the worst of 1990s pre-Sabremetric GMs, dreaming on toolsy 17 year olds. Andy Yount, Corey Jenkins, come on down. BRB gonna go throw John Curtice for 133 2/3 innings in the Midwest League as an 18-year old.
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 29, 2020 23:59:35 GMT -5
Its a good thing that poster who posts randomly for a bit, develops an obsession with a single player, attacks everyone who thinks there's any chance said player isn't the greatest player alive, and then gets banned, doesn't keep coming back.
Re: the draft, obligatory "Should the sox spread the money around rather than targeting the "best" player at 4?" question. Its obviously a higher pick than the Sox are used to but there's no guarantee that they're getting a franchise player. Its also a lot more money than they are used to having to allocate to the draft under these rules, and if they really trust their player evaluation, or if there happen to be a few players projected after the first round they think have a chance to be special, maybe it makes more sense to spread the money around and give themselves a few extra chances.
Not necessarily advocating for this, but I wouldn't be upset if they went this route either.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2020 4:00:46 GMT -5
I'm the worst of 1990s pre-Sabremetric GMs, dreaming on toolsy 17 year olds. Andy Yount, Corey Jenkins, come on down. BRB gonna go throw John Curtice for 133 2/3 innings in the Midwest League as an 18-year old. Man, I'd forgotten about him ... He kind of completes the sequence Carl Pavano, Brian Rose, Juan Pena (in increasing order of damage to career). All 4 guys were insanely overworked by the Duquette front office from 1995 to 1998.
Rose was a BA #22 prospect who had 0.3 career bWAR in 284.1 IP. Pena was a relatively unheralded prospect despite dominating every league he pitched in, which made him a big favorite of mine. He had 0.8 bWAR in 13 career innings, the greatest 2-start career in MLB history (and as I pointed out yesterday, the second highest WAR/G, minimum 10 IP ... after Tanner Houck -- until early next year, one would think).
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Post by dyoungteach on Sept 30, 2020 7:06:47 GMT -5
House, Fabian, lawyer. One of those 3 should hopefully be our pick. Save the pitcher for the high end 2nd or 3rd round pick we will get. We can draft a quality starter there, especially that second round choice.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 30, 2020 7:33:26 GMT -5
Its a good thing that poster who posts randomly for a bit, develops an obsession with a single player, attacks everyone who thinks there's any chance said player isn't the greatest player alive, and then gets banned, doesn't keep coming back. Re: the draft, obligatory "Should the sox spread the money around rather than targeting the "best" player at 4?" question. Its obviously a higher pick than the Sox are used to but there's no guarantee that they're getting a franchise player. Its also a lot more money than they are used to having to allocate to the draft under these rules, and if they really trust their player evaluation, or if there happen to be a few players projected after the first round they think have a chance to be special, maybe it makes more sense to spread the money around and give themselves a few extra chances. Not necessarily advocating for this, but I wouldn't be upset if they went this route either. I think we saw this year that they're willing to do that if they can't get THEIR guy at their spot. Rumors out of many publications had a Red Sox and Mick Abel contract all but signed on draft day, but he went to Philly at #15. They couldn't get their guy, so they initiated plan Z, went all Bill-Belichick-in-the-2nd-round and took a kid nobody had heard of to save a good chunk of money to spend on their 3rd rounder (no disrespect to Nick Yorke, he's grown on me since my draft day meltdown, and I was impressed by his performance in his short stint at the ATS). All that said, I think it's unlikely that they won't have a guy they think is worthy of their #4 pick available at #4, and I could even envision a scenario where there's a surprise guy available at #4 who nobody thinks would be there right now, a la Austin Martin this season.
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Post by ortiz34 on Sept 30, 2020 7:52:01 GMT -5
Anybody think House is overrated. Maybe its due to fact that people see "Big guy" and "Power" and that is going to make him an all star. It does concern me that he doesn't want to prove himself against better players. Is he hiding something? Trouble with offspeed pitches? Trouble with higher velocity fastballs?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 30, 2020 8:01:19 GMT -5
Anybody think House is overrated. Maybe its due to fact that people see "Big guy" and "Power" and that is going to make him an all star. It does concern me that he doesn't want to prove himself against better players. Is he hiding something? Trouble with offspeed pitches? Trouble with higher velocity fastballs? ? He's participated in all of the premier events this summer including the PG All-American Classic (event for the best HS prospects).
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Post by ortiz34 on Sept 30, 2020 8:13:40 GMT -5
Anybody think House is overrated. Maybe its due to fact that people see "Big guy" and "Power" and that is going to make him an all star. It does concern me that he doesn't want to prove himself against better players. Is he hiding something? Trouble with offspeed pitches? Trouble with higher velocity fastballs? ? He's participated in all of the premier events this summer including the PG All-American Classic (event for the best HS prospects). Sorry i read it wrong. Produce against higher end talent. Still kind of concerning. But the kid is only 17, so maybe he grows.
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Post by ortiz34 on Sept 30, 2020 8:18:15 GMT -5
Thoughts on Ethan Wilson. Not a lot of chatter on him despite him being in a few top 10s.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2020 9:05:36 GMT -5
I like that scouts are split on what they like more, Wilson’s hit tool or his power.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2020 9:06:08 GMT -5
So said a couple of the publications
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