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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 4, 2021 0:30:19 GMT -5
Honestly I don’t see Lawlar and Mayer falling...true SS always move up draft day and they are both true SSs with elite hit tools and already starting strong. I think those two are in the top 4.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 4, 2021 1:18:23 GMT -5
And as for the top 3 college pitchers right now...I mean we will see...but each has its warts after week 2. Jack could not locate his fastball and his velocity was way down (though it was cold and rainy when he started). Kumar’s fastball command comes and goes leaving him with 1 plus pitch for long periods. Jaden has a three maybe even four plus pitches and he hasn’t walked a batter yet, but he’s a sinker guy who doesn’t miss a ton of bats as is evidenced by strikeouts (less than 9 per 9 innings. And none of these guys has pitched in conference yet. I think this is a deep draft...but for now the top 4 or 5 remain muddled, if this keeps up (and definitely might not) we could see some under slot deals at the top. I love all the guys above but wouldn’t be furious if say the Red Sox cut a deal with say Henry Davis or Ty Madden then picked up an excellent prep player at 40.
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Post by jdb on Mar 4, 2021 8:24:53 GMT -5
Has anyone seen Hogland that high on a list? I saw some highlights this past weekend and he looks the part.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 4, 2021 8:43:48 GMT -5
Kylie McDaniel (ESPN) has him at 8. MLB, FG and BA are more in the 20-30 range.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 4, 2021 9:05:22 GMT -5
Has anyone seen Hogland that high on a list? I saw some highlights this past weekend and he looks the part. Keith Law had him at #7. I think he'll move up when all those other lists are updated.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 11:19:00 GMT -5
You have to figure that if Rocker and Leiter continue to pitch as they have and the two SS kept impressing as they have, that's what you'd have to think is the top 4 draft (Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Lawlor in whatever order).
We talk about not drafting for need, but what do the Red Sox need more in the farm system than a future top notch starting pitcher or a top notch starting SS?
Yes, a power hitting CF and a catcher would be big (Fabian, Del Castillo) in the organization as the Red Sox aren't overflowing with power hitting OF or top notch hitting catchers (of course it's not a given that Del Castillo winds up a catcher), but a front line starter would probably be need 1A and a young stud SS would probably be 1b as they are harder to come by than power hitting OF and catchers who can hit but are huge defensive question marks.
I just like how things are falling for the Red Sox in June. I still wish the Sox hadn't won that last game last year and wound up with the 3rd pick instead, but I think they'll be in great shape no matter what.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 4, 2021 11:23:22 GMT -5
Still many months left until the draft but the Sox are sitting in a good spot right now. Would love to be picking first and have their pick of the litter but as some have said I don't think they can go wrong if they come away with Rocker, Leiter, Hill, Lawlar or Mayer.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 11:53:17 GMT -5
Was just wondering what the recent #4 picks are up to these days...
2020: Asa Lacy. Fangraphs #25 prospect on the top 100, 55 FV. 2019: JJ Bleday. #35, 55 FV. 2018: Nick Madrigal. #39, 55 FV. 2017: Brendan McKay. #123, 50 FV. 2016: Riley Pint. Unranked, 40+ FV. 2015: Dillon Tate. MLB, 40 FV. 2014: Kyle Schwarber 2013: Kohl Stewart. MLB, 45 FV. 2012: Kevin Gausman 2011: Dylan Bundy 2010: Christian Colon 2009: Tony Sanchez 2008: Brian Matusz
All in all not many outright misses in the last 10 years, though it gets dodgy before 2011. TBD on the more recent guys, of course.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 13:15:32 GMT -5
Man, the O's had the no. 4 pick locked down for a bit didn't they?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 13:35:27 GMT -5
Man, the O's had the no. 4 pick locked down for a bit didn't they? Some of them were even good, once they left the Orioles!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 15:28:46 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 15:59:43 GMT -5
Oh nice, didn't know there was a way to sort by pick number like that.
So historically, about 1 in 3 #4 picks turn into 10-WAR players, 1 in 4 turn into 20-WAR players, 1 in 6 turn into 30-WAR players, 1 in 15 turn into 50-WAR players, and 1 in 45 turn into Barry Larkin.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 4, 2021 16:50:06 GMT -5
You have to figure that if Rocker and Leiter continue to pitch as they have and the two SS kept impressing as they have, that's what you'd have to think is the top 4 draft (Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Lawlor in whatever order). We talk about not drafting for need, but what do the Red Sox need more in the farm system than a future top notch starting pitcher or a top notch starting SS? Yes, a power hitting CF and a catcher would be big (Fabian, Del Castillo) in the organization as the Red Sox aren't overflowing with power hitting OF or top notch hitting catchers (of course it's not a given that Del Castillo winds up a catcher), but a front line starter would probably be need 1A and a young stud SS would probably be 1b as they are harder to come by than power hitting OF and catchers who can hit but are huge defensive question marks. I just like how things are falling for the Red Sox in June. I still wish the Sox hadn't won that last game last year and wound up with the 3rd pick instead, but I think they'll be in great shape no matter what. I think you will see House in the discussion. I truly do not think Sox will go pitcher with that top pick. And as another poster said I'm willing to bet both shortstops will be gone by the time the sox pick. I actually believe the sox will be looking at their pick of the top pitchers, because Tigers won't go pitcher if Pirates and Rangers go with the shortstops. I don't care how good Rocker or Leiter are...there is NO WAY I'm picking anything but a hitter with that top pick. I can look at upside pitcher later on in the second round.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 4, 2021 18:52:34 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 4, 2021 19:16:18 GMT -5
You have to figure that if Rocker and Leiter continue to pitch as they have and the two SS kept impressing as they have, that's what you'd have to think is the top 4 draft (Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Lawlor in whatever order). We talk about not drafting for need, but what do the Red Sox need more in the farm system than a future top notch starting pitcher or a top notch starting SS? Yes, a power hitting CF and a catcher would be big (Fabian, Del Castillo) in the organization as the Red Sox aren't overflowing with power hitting OF or top notch hitting catchers (of course it's not a given that Del Castillo winds up a catcher), but a front line starter would probably be need 1A and a young stud SS would probably be 1b as they are harder to come by than power hitting OF and catchers who can hit but are huge defensive question marks. I just like how things are falling for the Red Sox in June. I still wish the Sox hadn't won that last game last year and wound up with the 3rd pick instead, but I think they'll be in great shape no matter what. I think the Red Sox are set at SS with Downs and Yorke will play second. A true homegrown ace is something this team has been missing since Buchholz.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 4, 2021 19:27:33 GMT -5
You have to figure that if Rocker and Leiter continue to pitch as they have and the two SS kept impressing as they have, that's what you'd have to think is the top 4 draft (Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Lawlor in whatever order). We talk about not drafting for need, but what do the Red Sox need more in the farm system than a future top notch starting pitcher or a top notch starting SS? Yes, a power hitting CF and a catcher would be big (Fabian, Del Castillo) in the organization as the Red Sox aren't overflowing with power hitting OF or top notch hitting catchers (of course it's not a given that Del Castillo winds up a catcher), but a front line starter would probably be need 1A and a young stud SS would probably be 1b as they are harder to come by than power hitting OF and catchers who can hit but are huge defensive question marks. I just like how things are falling for the Red Sox in June. I still wish the Sox hadn't won that last game last year and wound up with the 3rd pick instead, but I think they'll be in great shape no matter what. I think the Red Sox are set at SS with Downs and Yorke will play second. A true homegrown ace is something this team has been missing since Buchholz. Downs is no sure bet, especially at SS. Draft for best player, not need! All day, every day. This is especially important in MLB, vs. NFL or NBA.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 4, 2021 19:37:28 GMT -5
I think you get both with any of Hill, Rocker or Leiter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 22:51:53 GMT -5
I think you get both with any of Hill, Rocker or Leiter. Downs' future isn't at SS. He's more likely to be converted to OF (or be traded) than wind up a SS. I can see Downs getting a callup later this season toward the end and he's probably the 2b next year. Yorke has looked great but he's still probably a good 3 - 4 years away. He's only 18. I can see Downs as the 2b for a good 3 years or so before Yorke forces their hand. And frankly, the Red Sox will put together a ranked list of the draftees they want and whoever is the highest on that list after the first three picks are gone will be the guy they select, which is also known as drafting the best player available. He could very well be a pitcher, especially if Lawlor and Mayer are gone by then, which there's a reasonable chance they could be. Right now Leiter could be the first pitcher to go, so if it is indeed Lawlor, Mayer, Leiter in whatever order, the Sox do have big decisions to make. If Law is right about Rocker's slider, that could give one pause. Hill looks intriguing, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox grab House, Del Castillo or somebody you wouldn't even anticipate as the #4 pick of the draft.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 22:54:22 GMT -5
You have to figure that if Rocker and Leiter continue to pitch as they have and the two SS kept impressing as they have, that's what you'd have to think is the top 4 draft (Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Lawlor in whatever order). We talk about not drafting for need, but what do the Red Sox need more in the farm system than a future top notch starting pitcher or a top notch starting SS? Yes, a power hitting CF and a catcher would be big (Fabian, Del Castillo) in the organization as the Red Sox aren't overflowing with power hitting OF or top notch hitting catchers (of course it's not a given that Del Castillo winds up a catcher), but a front line starter would probably be need 1A and a young stud SS would probably be 1b as they are harder to come by than power hitting OF and catchers who can hit but are huge defensive question marks. I just like how things are falling for the Red Sox in June. I still wish the Sox hadn't won that last game last year and wound up with the 3rd pick instead, but I think they'll be in great shape no matter what. I think you will see House in the discussion. I truly do not think Sox will go pitcher with that top pick. And as another poster said I'm willing to bet both shortstops will be gone by the time the sox pick. I actually believe the sox will be looking at their pick of the top pitchers, because Tigers won't go pitcher if Pirates and Rangers go with the shortstops. I don't care how good Rocker or Leiter are...there is NO WAY I'm picking anything but a hitter with that top pick. I can look at upside pitcher later on in the second round. Why do you believe the bolded to be true? Why wouldn't the Tigers go with a pitcher if both SS are gone and they determine that a pitcher is the next best talent available? It's not like it's because they have Casey Mize that they can't draft the best pitcher in the draft if they deem him to be the best available talent.
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 5, 2021 4:53:04 GMT -5
I think you will see House in the discussion. I truly do not think Sox will go pitcher with that top pick. And as another poster said I'm willing to bet both shortstops will be gone by the time the sox pick. I actually believe the sox will be looking at their pick of the top pitchers, because Tigers won't go pitcher if Pirates and Rangers go with the shortstops. I don't care how good Rocker or Leiter are...there is NO WAY I'm picking anything but a hitter with that top pick. I can look at upside pitcher later on in the second round. Why do you believe the bolded to be true? Why wouldn't the Tigers go with a pitcher if both SS are gone and they determine that a pitcher is the next best talent available? It's not like it's because they have Casey Mize that they can't draft the best pitcher in the draft if they deem him to be the best available talent. I live in Michigan. Tigers have been pretty vocal that they want position players as they like their depth at pitcher ( mixes, manning, skuball, wentz, faedo, Perez, plus beau Burroughs and funkhouser as relief guys). They need a shortstop so I’m betting will go that way or a hitter. I’ll be shocked if cherrington goes pitcher. Now rangers could of lawyer is gone. I also could see cherington going off the board to save $$$ and push 2 top prospects into that system or more. Rangers and tigers will go best talent regardless of $$.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 5, 2021 7:25:45 GMT -5
The tigers farm strength is their pitching but if lawlar and Mayer are gone by their pick and they have a higher grade on Rocker, Leiter or Hill than the position players remaining then they probably take a pitcher. You can't just completely discount the tigers taking a pitcher.
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Post by semperfisox on Mar 5, 2021 8:25:46 GMT -5
Why do you believe the bolded to be true? Why wouldn't the Tigers go with a pitcher if both SS are gone and they determine that a pitcher is the next best talent available? It's not like it's because they have Casey Mize that they can't draft the best pitcher in the draft if they deem him to be the best available talent. I live in Michigan. Tigers have been pretty vocal that they want position players as they like their depth at pitcher ( mixes, manning, skuball, wentz, faedo, Perez, plus beau Burroughs and funkhouser as relief guys). They need a shortstop so I’m betting will go that way or a hitter. I’ll be shocked if cherrington goes pitcher. Now rangers could of lawyer is gone. I also could see cherington going off the board to save $$$ and push 2 top prospects into that system or more. Rangers and tigers will go best talent regardless of $$. Drafting for need is dumb in MLB, especially if you’re towards the top of the draft.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,139
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Post by jimoh on Mar 5, 2021 8:34:05 GMT -5
I live in Michigan. Tigers have been pretty vocal that they want position players as they like their depth at pitcher ( mixes, manning, skuball, wentz, faedo, Perez, plus beau Burroughs and funkhouser as relief guys). They need a shortstop so I’m betting will go that way or a hitter. I’ll be shocked if cherrington goes pitcher. Now rangers could of lawyer is gone. I also could see cherington going off the board to save $$$ and push 2 top prospects into that system or more. Rangers and tigers will go best talent regardless of $$. Drafting for need is dumb in MLB, especially if you’re towards the top of the draft. This is absolutely correct. The Red Sox had one of the best SS in baseball in John Valentin when they drafted Nomar. The Red Sox are as likely to use a Ouija Board as they are to draft by position. (This does not mean that they might not think a certain type of player is a more likely to be valuable overall)
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 5, 2021 9:08:40 GMT -5
The tigers farm strength is their pitching but if lawlar and Mayer are gone by their pick and they have a higher grade on Rocker, Leiter or Hill than the position players remaining then they probably take a pitcher. You can't just completely discount the tigers taking a pitcher. I respect what you are saying. I maybe I should rephrase that.... Leiter or any other pitcher would have to be really high on their board to take another pitcher. That’s standard “ jargon” for many years but I’ll be shocked if they use that number 3 pick on a pitcher. Especially when they have the supplemental pick and high second round pick to use on one in a shortstop heavy draft. But if I’m predicting this far out, given knowledge I know, tigers don’t take a pitcher with that pick or aren’t looking or hoping to
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 5, 2021 9:26:43 GMT -5
I think you get both with any of Hill, Rocker or Leiter. Downs' future isn't at SS. He's more likely to be converted to OF (or be traded) than wind up a SS. I can see Downs getting a callup later this season toward the end and he's probably the 2b next year. Yorke has looked great but he's still probably a good 3 - 4 years away. He's only 18. I can see Downs as the 2b for a good 3 years or so before Yorke forces their hand. And frankly, the Red Sox will put together a ranked list of the draftees they want and whoever is the highest on that list after the first three picks are gone will be the guy they select, which is also known as drafting the best player available. He could very well be a pitcher, especially if Lawlor and Mayer are gone by then, which there's a reasonable chance they could be. Right now Leiter could be the first pitcher to go, so if it is indeed Lawlor, Mayer, Leiter in whatever order, the Sox do have big decisions to make. If Law is right about Rocker's slider, that could give one pause. Hill looks intriguing, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox grab House, Del Castillo or somebody you wouldn't even anticipate as the #4 pick of the draft. Let's face it, Bloom's selection of Yorke last year wasn't on anyone's radar. There is a very real possibility that this pick will be someone that we are not anticipating.
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