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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 12, 2021 4:43:28 GMT -5
Brady House on fire so far. Yes on Brady house. He has a can’t miss tool. Will it play at majors. Who knows. But it’s definitely an elite tool. I see Bryant written all over him
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2021 8:20:59 GMT -5
The fact that ppl are debating whether its worth it to draft a pitcher with the #4 pick is laughable. We literally just signed a GM from an org that is built off the concept of taking as many pitchers as possible with hopes of developing a couple to use as trade bait when they get too expensive. If you look at the rays last couple of drafts they go pitcher for the majority of their picks. Rays first-round picks, 2012-19 Hitters: 7 Pitchers: 6 Both: 1 So not really. They had 6 first round picks between 2018 and 2019 and went pitcher in 4, so I guess I could see how it looks like a trend, but there's no evidence that they lean pitcher in any real way.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 12, 2021 8:31:52 GMT -5
Big evening for most of the top college arms:
7pm: Rocker facing #13 OK State 7:30pm: Madden facing #12 SC 7:30pm: Hoglund facing UL Monroe 8pm:: Hill facing UTSA
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 12, 2021 9:28:48 GMT -5
Big evening for most of the top college arms: 7pm: Rocker facing #13 OK State 7:30pm: Madden facing #12 SC 7:30pm: Hoglund facing UL Monroe 8pm:: Hill facing UTSA Let’s hope Sox scouts have other things to do tonight and forget to watch them.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 12, 2021 13:47:49 GMT -5
The fact that ppl are debating whether its worth it to draft a pitcher with the #4 pick is laughable. We literally just signed a GM from an org that is built off the concept of taking as many pitchers as possible with hopes of developing a couple to use as trade bait when they get too expensive. If you look at the rays last couple of drafts they go pitcher for the majority of their picks. They don’t have top 4 pick. I’ll agree take pitcher late or add a high high end pitcher in second. But not at 4 unless he’s THE stud of the draft ( Leiter in this one). Anyone else. You can get that value in second with high upside pay him a contract high schooler. ( I can start naming names of those guys all over in mlb) One of the most interesting things I remember from an interview with Brian Bannister (was it on the SP podcast?) was his theory that there are only a few true frontline pitchers in each draft, and they usually go at the very beginning of the first round. Some drafts don’t have any. It’s a physical talent thing, and you can look for backend/bullpen guys in later rounds, but the guys with 3 pitches + command almost never fall. Obviously they’re broadly looking BPA, and Bannister isn’t working for the Sox anymore, but if that philosophy is intact in the front office, you wonder if it tilts their thinking a bit. If they have a shot at a guy like Rocker or Leiter, maybe they take it.
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Post by tyler on Mar 12, 2021 15:39:35 GMT -5
Not a name we've brought up, and to be clear, I'm not suggesting this is a candidate for #4 overall. An interesting helium prep player though... The best is there’s a clip of one of his earlier home runs where the other team is chanting “over rated” right before he annihilates the ball. I’m all for the Sox getting three up the middle HS infielders with their first three picks and making somebody’s head explode. I’m looking at you unitspin:)
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Post by tyler on Mar 12, 2021 15:41:53 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 12, 2021 15:43:17 GMT -5
They don’t have top 4 pick. I’ll agree take pitcher late or add a high high end pitcher in second. But not at 4 unless he’s THE stud of the draft ( Leiter in this one). Anyone else. You can get that value in second with high upside pay him a contract high schooler. ( I can start naming names of those guys all over in mlb) One of the most interesting things I remember from an interview with Brian Bannister (was it on the SP podcast?) was his theory that there are only a few true frontline pitchers in each draft, and they usually go at the very beginning of the first round. Some drafts don’t have any. It’s a physical talent thing, and you can look for backend/bullpen guys in later rounds, but the guys with 3 pitches + command almost never fall. Obviously they’re broadly looking BPA, and Bannister isn’t working for the Sox anymore, but if that philosophy is intact in the front office, you wonder if it tilts their thinking a bit. If they have a shot at a guy like Rocker or Leiter, maybe they take it. I would agree with this assessment. So then the question is....is there a true frontline pitcher besides Leiter...? I'll argue...that with the recent scouting looks...they are saying he could have reliever profile, with only 2 true pitches. If that's the case, you are down to Leiter or hitter...which is EXACTLY WHAT I've been saying all along. So if Leiter is there..maybe. (I'm still taking one of the shortstops if he's there). I'm no scout. I have been following baseball for enough years to know pitchers flop all over like fish out of water every draft, and very few get back in the water to swim. Atleast as frontline ace starters. Just as many ace's can be found in the last 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd rounds. So my top 4 are: House, Lawlar, Mayer, Leiter (not counting salary asks and agent directional pressure) Madden would be a distant 5th, but that's without scouting. I would take one of the shortstops (although House won't stay at short).
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Post by tyler on Mar 12, 2021 16:09:53 GMT -5
I asked Joe Doyle of prospectslive who had the highest offensive ceiling and he said House (even over James Woods). I believe he and some other scouts were talking about his tough summer (subsequently followed by excellent Fall) and they said something to the effect of, even if House doesn’t reach his potential hit tool ceiling, your looking at a reasonable floor of a .230 hitter with like 30 bombs and plus d at third...which after they thought about for a second, agreed that that’s not a bad floor. If his hit tool is more like last Fall (as in good against top tier velocity and spin), then the ceiling is tremendous. And never forget, a year younger than Lawlar. So we should be comparing what we think House will look like this summer and compare that to Lawlar of last year.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 12, 2021 20:42:06 GMT -5
The fact that ppl are debating whether its worth it to draft a pitcher with the #4 pick is laughable. We literally just signed a GM from an org that is built off the concept of taking as many pitchers as possible with hopes of developing a couple to use as trade bait when they get too expensive. If you look at the rays last couple of drafts they go pitcher for the majority of their picks. Rays first-round picks, 2012-19 Hitters: 7 Pitchers: 6 Both: 1 So not really. They had 6 first round picks between 2018 and 2019 and went pitcher in 4, so I guess I could see how it looks like a trend, but there's no evidence that they lean pitcher in any real way. Spot on but in their last 4 drafts they have loaded up on pitchers in all rounds not just the first rd. That is not an anomaly, developing cheap pitchers that can be used as trade bait for high end talent is their MO recently. Maybe it is their new team modo down in Tampa, guess we'll find out.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 12, 2021 20:59:53 GMT -5
Keane for northeastern threw a complete game with 9 ks. Maybe in a couple years we can get him in sox gear.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 12, 2021 22:13:13 GMT -5
Lawlar walk off.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 12, 2021 22:24:42 GMT -5
Hoglund: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 14 K, 88 pitches, 65 strikes
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 12, 2021 22:38:57 GMT -5
Jaden Hill: 6.2 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 SO, 96 P, 56 S
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Post by tyler on Mar 12, 2021 23:25:30 GMT -5
I am a complete neophyte I admit but is an elevated change a good thing?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,139
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2021 7:02:29 GMT -5
Rays first-round picks, 2012-19 Hitters: 7 Pitchers: 6 Both: 1 So not really. They had 6 first round picks between 2018 and 2019 and went pitcher in 4, so I guess I could see how it looks like a trend, but there's no evidence that they lean pitcher in any real way. Spot on but in their last 4 drafts they have loaded up on pitchers in all rounds not just the first rd. That is not an anomaly, developing cheap pitchers that can be used as trade bait for high end talent is their MO recently. Maybe it is their new team modo down in Tampa, guess we'll find out. Last 4 years, 8-13 in first 4 rounds but 0 in 5th (so 8-17 in last 4 years). You can see a slight lean towards pitchers depending on where you cut it off, but certainly no aversion to pitchers, no agreement with the claim that you need to avoid drafting pitchers www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=TOR&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
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Post by unitspin on Mar 13, 2021 7:43:32 GMT -5
2020 4/6 2019 8/12 first 10 rds 2018 8/13 first 10 rds 2017 8.5/11 first 10 rds
They have been pretty consistent to land as many lottery pick arms as they can. This could be a trend moving forward. When they trade Glasnow in a couple years for a haul then the next guy after him and so forth. They have stayed competitive in one of the toughest divisions in MLB by doing this over and over again. If other low and high budget teams are not following this trend they will be behind the 8 ball.
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Post by jdb on Mar 13, 2021 8:32:59 GMT -5
Watching Madden last night he was matched up vs Thomas Farr from USC who could be an example of the depth this class could have since last years draft was only 5 rounds. Drafted out of JuCo and slipped bc he wanted a year in the SEC and to improve his stock. He easily could have been drafted that 5-10 range last year with a decent season instead he was going up against Madden and matched him pitch for pitch. Next week I guess he’ll get Rocker on Friday night.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 13, 2021 9:07:55 GMT -5
2020 4/6 2019 8/12 first 10 rds 2018 8/13 first 10 rds 2017 8.5/11 first 10 rds They have been pretty consistent to land as many lottery pick arms as they can. This could be a trend moving forward. When they trade Glasnow in a couple years for a haul then the next guy after him and so forth. They have stayed competitive in one of the toughest divisions in MLB by doing this over and over again. If other low and high budget teams are not following this trend they will be behind the 8 ball. Well, is there evidence that the strategy actually works, or are we just assuming it's a good strategy because it's the Rays?
These drafts are too recent to really know how it will turn out, but in 2017 the pitchers they drafted were:
Drew Rasmussen (CB Round) Michael Mercado (Round 2) Drew Strotman (Round 4) Josh Fleming (Round 5) Hunter Schryver (Round7) Riley O'Brien (Round 8) Andrew Gist (Round 9) Phoenix Sanders (Round 10)
Drew Rasmussen is in the majors with a 45 FV. Per Fangraphs Strotman is their #17 prospect and a 45 FV. Fleming is #29 and 40. Mercado is #32 and 40.
Schryver is a 35+ FV, though they did trade him for Int'l cap space, and O'Brien is a 40 FV guy they used in a trade for Cody Reed. Gist appears to be out of baseball; Sanders has no prospect ranking and didn't pitch in 2020.
Is that an especially impressive record, better than they likely would have done with position players? I'm honestly not sure. Seems about average?
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Post by unitspin on Mar 13, 2021 9:49:06 GMT -5
Well it all started with delmon young for Matt garza, then Garza for chris archer then archer for meadows and glasnow. They drafted snell turned him into patino, Wilcox and others. Then they'll trade Glasnow for a similar haul. All while developing flemming, McKay and patino. It seems like a revolving door of trading high end pitchers to rinse repeat over and over again. Then the price trade they got smyly turned him into Yarbrough who they'll turn into more prospects. It's help them stay competitive for a decade.
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Post by manfred on Mar 13, 2021 10:13:46 GMT -5
2020 4/6 2019 8/12 first 10 rds 2018 8/13 first 10 rds 2017 8.5/11 first 10 rds They have been pretty consistent to land as many lottery pick arms as they can. This could be a trend moving forward. When they trade Glasnow in a couple years for a haul then the next guy after him and so forth. They have stayed competitive in one of the toughest divisions in MLB by doing this over and over again. If other low and high budget teams are not following this trend they will be behind the 8 ball. Well, is there evidence that the strategy actually works, or are we just assuming it's a good strategy because it's the Rays?
These drafts are too recent to really know how it will turn out, but in 2017 the pitchers they drafted were:
Drew Rasmussen (CB Round) Michael Mercado (Round 2) Drew Strotman (Round 4) Josh Fleming (Round 5) Hunter Schryver (Round7) Riley O'Brien (Round 8) Andrew Gist (Round 9) Phoenix Sanders (Round 10)
Drew Rasmussen is in the majors with a 45 FV. Per Fangraphs Strotman is their #17 prospect and a 45 FV. Fleming is #29 and 40. Mercado is #32 and 40.
Schryver is a 35+ FV, though they did trade him for Int'l cap space, and O'Brien is a 40 FV guy they used in a trade for Cody Reed. Gist appears to be out of baseball; Sanders has no prospect ranking and didn't pitch in 2020.
Is that an especially impressive record, better than they likely would have done with position players? I'm honestly not sure. Seems about average?
I said something like this in another thread where everyone was talking about Ray’s draft history. It has been... fine? But there is no evidence they are unusually perceptive. As for unitspin’s point about moving pitchers for pitchers: that would be great if it resulted in a ring. But it as often *keeps* them from being fully competitive. They were so close last year, so why trade Snell and ket Morton walk? It doesn’t make them better now when they could be going for it.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 13, 2021 10:25:46 GMT -5
Well it all started with delmon young for Matt garza, then Garza for chris archer then archer for meadows and glasnow. They drafted snell turned him into patino, Wilcox and others. Then they'll trade Glasnow for a similar haul. All while developing flemming, McKay and patino. It seems like a revolving door of trading high end pitchers to rinse repeat over and over again. Then the price trade they got smyly turned him into Yarbrough who they'll turn into more prospects. It's help them stay competitive for a decade. Delmon Young was... not a pitcher. That's an impressive string of trades but what you seem to be demonstrating is that they're good at making trades, not that they've snookered the league by drafting and developing tons of pitching prospects or something.
And the reason the Rays have this revolving door is that they can't afford (or won't pay for) expensive contracts so they always trade their top talent before they reach free agency.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 13, 2021 10:46:58 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel just put out a stock watch. Lots of notes on college and HS players, but here are some notes on a few of the top college position players: -Matt McLain: holding up as the top position player -Adrian del Castillo: consensus second best position player. Solid player but nothing that really stands out. Might sneak into the top 10 picks as things stand today. -Sal Frelick: biggest riser, flat out hits. Probably would be in the 10-15 pick range right now. -Henry Davis: another big riser, 80 arm strength, Evan Gattis comps. Probably would be picked in the middle of the first round right now. -Jud Fabian: huge power but also huge swing and miss. Has gotten Jeren Kendall comps. Probably back half of the first round right now. -Alex Binelas: more of second round player right now. 1b/3b tweener and really hasn't hit so far. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31052097/kiley-mcdaniel-mlb-draft-stock-watch-which-prospects-playing-their-way-of-first-round
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 13, 2021 12:45:55 GMT -5
Madden and Houglund with dominant starts.
Texas
Player IP H R ER BB SO WP BK HBP IBB AB BF FO GO NP
Madden, Ty 7.0 3 1 1 3 5 0 0 0 0 22 26 5 10 104
Hoglund (2-0) allowed just two hits and walked one through his six innings of work, striking out 14.
There are some workhorse arms in this draft.
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Post by unitspin on Mar 13, 2021 13:55:33 GMT -5
No really Tampa trades their top tier talent bcs they cannot afford them, wow. I would never in a million years have thought that great insight, wow you blew my socks off with that take. Tampa has already proven their process works two WS appearances with a bottom of the league payroll. They could send off snell they already have glasnow, Yardbrough and Fleming in their rotation. They just added patino one of the best young pitching prospects in the game along with two other solid prospects. Then they have McKay in the wings. They are putting a huge investment into their pitching prospect pool. It is far easier to score big hauls with pitching talent then bats.
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