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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by manfred on Mar 13, 2021 13:59:02 GMT -5
No really Tampa trades their top tier talent bcs they cannot afford them, wow. I would never in a million years have thought that great insight, wow you blew my socks off with that take. Tampa has already proven their process works two WS appearances with a bottom of the league payroll. They could send off snell they already have glasnow, Yardbrough and Fleming in their rotation. They just added patino one of the best young pitching prospects in the game along with two other solid prospects. Then they have McKay in the wings. They are putting a huge investment into their pitching prospect pool. It is far easier to score big hauls with pitching talent then bats. Of course, their neighbor in Miami has also been a big seller, has been even cheaper, and has WON two WS. So in the battle of Florida, the Rays are... not in first place.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 13, 2021 14:08:44 GMT -5
2020 4/6 2019 8/12 first 10 rds 2018 8/13 first 10 rds 2017 8.5/11 first 10 rds They have been pretty consistent to land as many lottery pick arms as they can. This could be a trend moving forward. When they trade Glasnow in a couple years for a haul then the next guy after him and so forth. They have stayed competitive in one of the toughest divisions in MLB by doing this over and over again. If other low and high budget teams are not following this trend they will be behind the 8 ball. So 2/3 of their picks in a four-year span? Eh, I'm not chalking that up to a true strategy unless we've got a quote. Well it all started with delmon young for Matt garza, then Garza for chris archer then archer for meadows and glasnow. They drafted snell turned him into patino, Wilcox and others. Then they'll trade Glasnow for a similar haul. All while developing flemming, McKay and patino. It seems like a revolving door of trading high end pitchers to rinse repeat over and over again. Then the price trade they got smyly turned him into Yarbrough who they'll turn into more prospects. It's help them stay competitive for a decade. Delmon Young was... not a pitcher. That's an impressive string of trades but what you seem to be demonstrating is that they're good at making trades, not that they've snookered the league by drafting and developing tons of pitching prospects or something. And the reason the Rays have this revolving door is that they can't afford (or won't pay for) expensive contracts so they always trade their top talent before they reach free agency.
Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham, Aubrey Huff (for Zobrist), Randy Winn, Wil Myers. I'm sure there are others. It's not just a pitcher thing. It's a value thing. It's not just pitchers
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Post by incandenza on Mar 13, 2021 14:47:01 GMT -5
No really Tampa trades their top tier talent bcs they cannot afford them, wow. I would never in a million years have thought that great insight, wow you blew my socks off with that take. Tampa has already proven their process works two WS appearances with a bottom of the league payroll. They could send off snell they already have glasnow, Yardbrough and Fleming in their rotation. They just added patino one of the best young pitching prospects in the game along with two other solid prospects. Then they have McKay in the wings. They are putting a huge investment into their pitching prospect pool. Right, it's an obvious point. Which I was using to show that you weren't adding evidence for your own argument. The fact that they have a "revolving door" doesn't tell us that they have a special strategy based on developing pitching prospects; it just tells us that they're spendthrifts.... On your other points - yes, they have some pitching prospects. They also have some position player prospects. In fact, per fangraphs 8 of their 13 50+ prospects are position players. If your point is that they draft especially many pitchers then it seems like they're actually doing a rather poor job of turning them into top prospects.
As for this:
Um, citation needed? See Chris' comment above...
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 13, 2021 18:14:25 GMT -5
Ok well for a quick break here’s some stats. I give Kumar such hard time on here it’s only fair to point out when he delivers. Fastball was looking good today, I might be jumping back on the train.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 14, 2021 11:27:10 GMT -5
Interesting article on a rising college righty. 16 strikeouts last night for Indiana vs Penn State. Fastball is plus, curveball entering plus plus territory for some. 6ft 6in frame. Last two games has been something like 14 innings 26 ks and 2 walks I think. One of those guys that was due to break out last year. Right now I think underslot at 4 is a reach and he may have pushed higher than pick 40 but who knows after a few months.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 14, 2021 11:41:49 GMT -5
Sorry 28 Ks over the last 14 innings, not 26. Sheesh. The big thing here is the minimal walks ( just 2)
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 14, 2021 13:35:12 GMT -5
Question for those that follow the draft history. I note that Mayer is an old HS kid (Born 12/02) while the remaining HS kids are mostly 03s. In outliers theres the famous chapter on hockey and older kids being "better" because they're older than the competition. Should we discount him a bit because of this?
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Post by southernredsoxality on Mar 14, 2021 14:43:56 GMT -5
No really Tampa trades their top tier talent bcs they cannot afford them, wow. I would never in a million years have thought that great insight, wow you blew my socks off with that take. Tampa has already proven their process works two WS appearances with a bottom of the league payroll. They could send off snell they already have glasnow, Yardbrough and Fleming in their rotation. They just added patino one of the best young pitching prospects in the game along with two other solid prospects. Then they have McKay in the wings. They are putting a huge investment into their pitching prospect pool. It is far easier to score big hauls with pitching talent then bats. Of course, their neighbor in Miami has also been a big seller, has been even cheaper, and has WON two WS. So in the battle of Florida, the Rays are... not in first place. Except that when the Marlins won their first WS they had one of the biggest payrolls in baseball, and their second came, in large part, as a result of a lot of talent they received from trading all those very expensive players away.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 14, 2021 15:19:13 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 14, 2021 19:14:20 GMT -5
Question for those that follow the draft history. I note that Mayer is an old HS kid (Born 12/02) while the remaining HS kids are mostly 03s. In outliers theres the famous chapter on hockey and older kids being "better" because they're older than the competition. Should we discount him a bit because of this? I think Mayer is avg agewise compared to other players in the class. Lawlar is older for the class, will turn 19 before the draft I belive or shortly there after. House is young for the class won’t turn 18 until next year if he starts at a full season league next year he’d still be 17. Some teams put an emphasis on age while others don’t, I would say the Red Sox do not as they have drafted “older” and “younger” players anyways. As for my personal opinion I would say I like Mayer more than House because I think he is a better overall player. I don’t think a few months is enough of a difference to change that.
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Post by jdb on Mar 17, 2021 6:56:15 GMT -5
SEC schedules start Friday night. I can’t wait to see how some of these guys perform. blogs.fangraphs.com/another-scouting-notes-10-pack-3-16-2021/Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K Hoglund is well known to scouts. One of the better prep arms in the 2018 draft, the Pirates failed to sign the Florida high school product after selecting him with the 36th overall pick, leaving him Oxford (Mississippi, not the fancy UK school) bound. He was in the midst of a breakout campaign last year, and has built on that so far this spring, including Friday’s dominant outing against a weak Louisiana-Monroe opponent when he needed just six innings to accumulate the highest single-game strikeout mark in over a decade. With 42 strikeouts over 23.2 innings in his first four starts, Hoglund leads NCAA starters in strikeout percentage, and much of that is coming off one of the better sliders in the draft, which finished off 11 of his 14 strikeouts on Friday. It’s a mid-80s power pitch with plenty off movement, but he also tends to use it as a chase pitch and will need to adjust as a pro to convert it into a more in-zone weapon. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds with an easily delivery, Hoglund checks a lot of scouting boxes and while the fastball is not overwhelming, at 93-95 mph it’s more than enough. Hogland bet on himself three years ago, and chances are looking good that he’ll end up improving his draft stock come July.
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Post by jdb on Mar 17, 2021 14:56:25 GMT -5
Doyle seems very high on Davis. Right now I wouldn’t be opposed to going after a guy slightly below slot and have extra money in what should be a deep draft since last year was only five rounds. www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/3/15/aakofs2dyhn8rzvvfrtzw95uas4xe9Henry Davis has been the best player in college baseball this season and has answered any questions scouts had for him entering the season. The hit tool is real, and the approach is every bit the tool many anticipated. He’s a surefire catcher at the next level where his athleticism really plays. He still has some work to do receiving and blocking, but he’s shown marked success in both categories. There’s 4 months to go before the MLB Draft, and ACC play hasn’t even begun. A lot can change between now and then. That said, if the draft were to take place today, I’d have a hard time seeing any scenario where Davis makes it out of the top 7 or 8 picks.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 18, 2021 0:22:51 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 18, 2021 0:41:42 GMT -5
And honestly I think the top 4 in this class is really solidifying. If Kumar and Leiter hold serve against the SEC than no other pitcher really has the stuff or the pedigree to unseat them. Lawlar and Mayer seem even more stable as they have proven themselves on the circuit and now are just laying into lesser competition in HS (though Mayer is in southern Cal but still just killing it showing pull side power now). they are both no doubt SSs with plus hit tools. The power depends on whether Lawlar can adjust his swing plane and whether Mayer can incorporate his lower half more. Mayer and Leiter ain’t going anywhere out of the top 4 in my opinion. The only question now is what will Kumar and Leiter do against the SEC. Fun weekend ahead.
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 18, 2021 1:56:52 GMT -5
My mistake, Mayer and Lawlar ain’t going anywhere
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 18, 2021 4:37:47 GMT -5
My mistake, Mayer and Lawlar ain’t going anywhere I agree. Mayer and lawyer are in top 4 and I’m betting Leiter is also. Rocker is the question mark as is contract demands of various players, or feelings on going under slot for teams at the top. Going backwards I don’t see Sox going under slot nor do I see the tigers going under slot. ( tigers have a supplemental pick this year). Texas has $$ so they want a big hit on this pick. I highly doubt lawyer gets past them being a homegrown boy. BUT I wouldn’t be surprised by pirates going under slot at 1. They are rebuilding with a gm that values prospects and feels they need more impact players. It wouldn’t shock me one bit to see pirates go under slot with someone ranked in the 5-10 range that they feel could be a top 3 player in the draft in 3 years but others don’t see at that level right now
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Post by borisman on Mar 18, 2021 9:56:49 GMT -5
SEC schedules start Friday night. I can’t wait to see how some of these guys perform. blogs.fangraphs.com/another-scouting-notes-10-pack-3-16-2021/Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K Hoglund is well known to scouts. One of the better prep arms in the 2018 draft, the Pirates failed to sign the Florida high school product after selecting him with the 36th overall pick, leaving him Oxford (Mississippi, not the fancy UK school) bound. It must suck to not sign someone drafted that high and have him turn into a something you thought he'd be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 18, 2021 12:12:13 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,507
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Post by nomar on Mar 18, 2021 12:27:28 GMT -5
SEC schedules start Friday night. I can’t wait to see how some of these guys perform. blogs.fangraphs.com/another-scouting-notes-10-pack-3-16-2021/Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 14 K Hoglund is well known to scouts. One of the better prep arms in the 2018 draft, the Pirates failed to sign the Florida high school product after selecting him with the 36th overall pick, leaving him Oxford (Mississippi, not the fancy UK school) bound. It must suck to not sign someone drafted that high and have him turn into a something you thought he'd be. Then there’s also the Aiken’s of the world
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 18, 2021 12:32:58 GMT -5
I mean it's a 2022 thing but Connor Prielipp is turning into the next Bregman, Red Sox-wise.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 18, 2021 23:59:08 GMT -5
Interesting that Khalil Watson went 5th here because I had actually kind of targeted him a little while ago as someone I wouldn't mind seeing in the Nick Yorke mold in this draft (underslot high schooler). He also said teams in the top five love him... hmmm
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 19, 2021 0:12:53 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 19, 2021 0:14:33 GMT -5
“Blast Data” I dated myself as a baseball fan trying to look that one up:)
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 19, 2021 18:42:20 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 19, 2021 19:16:29 GMT -5
I've watched every pitch Hill has thrown this year and I love everything about him except the dominance is just not there, at least not yet. Physically looks awesome. Swagger is there. Hard fastball, good slider, elite change. Maybe it's just him being a football player with limited college looks, but there is no way these kids should make as much contact / good contact against him that they have thus far. I'd love to get a look at his pitch data to see what this all looks like under the hood.
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