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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 15, 2021 8:27:07 GMT -5
So Keith Law posts his negative views on the class, and everyone here jumps ship? K
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Post by natesp4 on Apr 15, 2021 8:33:23 GMT -5
I actually had a reaction somewhat in the opposite. While they may not be selecting from generational talents at #4, I'm looking at this list and I'd be very content with anyone 1-8. I feel like usually I'm looking at these lists and dreading the possibility of them selecting a least a few guys in their range.
Add in the fact that there will likely be a Tier 1 set of 4-5 players come July and the Red Sox will just be selecting whichever one falls, and this has potential to be the draft that gives me the least heartache yet.
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Post by jdb on Apr 15, 2021 8:36:58 GMT -5
So Keith Law posts his negative views on the class, and everyone here jumps ship? K It’s not just Law though. It isn’t thought of as a good draft class with 2022 supposedly much better. In Laws opening he says it’s a bad year to draft high but could be a good year to have extra money to spread out.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 15, 2021 9:52:42 GMT -5
I mean there is a lack of college bats, and if Kumar continues to slide, college arms. But there are still excellent choices. I mean if we get our SS or Catcher of the future and all we had to do is suck for 60 days I call it a win. Not to mention the guys we get in round 2 and 3.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 15, 2021 11:38:53 GMT -5
Keith Law released his updated top 50. Here's the top 15 - I'll add in a couple of nuggets from the article when I've got a moment. 1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas 3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville 5. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 6. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss 7. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS 8. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS 9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest 10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 11. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) HS 12. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH) 13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State 14. Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami 15. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA theathletic.com/2518200/2021/04/15/2021-mlb-draft-prospect-rankings-vanderbilts-jack-leiter-stays-on-top-jordan-lawlar-moves-up-keith-laws-top-50/A bit sobering.....It doesn't sound like a great draft year....not many can't miss studs according to Law. Frelick is #5 as a 5'9" CF. Even Mayer doesn't come off that glowingly. I sure hope someone grabs Kumar in top 3. And yet if it’s a bad draft but we get a 10 year starter then who cares how “bad” the draft is. We won’t know how bad the draft is or isn’t for 5-7 years. What I can say is we have the ability to grab a major piece for our team for 5-10 years at top of draft. And I believe there are some quality young players at top who can give us an elite prospect in our system. I’ve also learned to trust Mr Bloom and his teams evaluations. Let’s hope those evaluations tilt away from pitchers that have reliever downside and we target someone with elite potential at 4
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 15, 2021 11:40:43 GMT -5
I mean there is a lack of college bats, and if Kumar continues to slide, college arms. But there are still excellent choices. I mean if we get our SS or Catcher of the future and all we had to do is suck for 60 days I call it a win. Not to mention the guys we get in round 2 and 3. 2/3 rounds could be huge. I honestly think we grabbed a couple potential catchers of the future in trades last year/this spring.
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 15, 2021 11:49:46 GMT -5
Without knowing details year over year, even if this draft means #3-6 is equal to a typical #10-15 pick, I'm OK with that because our guy will be a top 4 in our rankings right away.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2021 14:25:52 GMT -5
2013 was a terrible year to draft high. If they took Meadows instead of Ball it wouldn't have mattered.
And fwiw, you're not usually looking at can't-miss studs at 4 anyway.
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Post by swingingbunt on Apr 15, 2021 14:59:06 GMT -5
So Keith Law posts his negative views on the class, and everyone here jumps ship? K It’s not just Law though. It isn’t thought of as a good draft class with 2022 supposedly much better. In Laws opening he says it’s a bad year to draft high but could be a good year to have extra money to spread out. FWIW, "next year's draft" is ALWAYS better than "this year's draft." Every year it's the same thing.
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Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2021 15:03:34 GMT -5
It’s not just Law though. It isn’t thought of as a good draft class with 2022 supposedly much better. In Laws opening he says it’s a bad year to draft high but could be a good year to have extra money to spread out. FWIW, "next year's draft" is ALWAYS better than "this year's draft." Every year it's the same thing. This actually ties into a question I keep wondering about: I don’t follow drafts closely, so I’m wondering how accurate these predraft assessments tend to be? I mean, a guy outperforms here, a guy crashes and burns there... bad becomes good, good becomes bad. Just wondering if people have a sense of how well people project. Anyway... I figure the draft doesn’t have to be good. Just the pick.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2021 15:33:28 GMT -5
FWIW, "next year's draft" is ALWAYS better than "this year's draft." Every year it's the same thing. This actually ties into a question I keep wondering about: I don’t follow drafts closely, so I’m wondering how accurate these predraft assessments tend to be? I mean, a guy outperforms here, a guy crashes and burns there... bad becomes good, good becomes bad. Just wondering if people have a sense of how well people project. Anyway... I figure the draft doesn’t have to be good. Just the pick. Could definitely be hindsight bias, but I recall the loaded 2011 draft (Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Lindor, Baez just in the first 10 picks) being well thought of at the time as well.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 15, 2021 16:35:07 GMT -5
Every draft has good/great players it’s a matter of the Red Sox identifying them drafting and signing them.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 15, 2021 17:05:29 GMT -5
2013 was a terrible year to draft high. If they took Meadows instead of Ball it wouldn't have mattered. And fwiw, you're not usually looking at can't-miss studs at 4 anyway. I just figured Austin meadows would be a starter for us right now at pretty cheap money. As for can’t miss studs: Cj abrams, josh jung, Riley greene, jarred kelenic, nick madrigal, Keaton hiura, jo adell, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Lewis, Matt Manning, Aaron Nola, Michael conforto. I can keep going- but gosh if those aren’t can’t miss studs I don’t know what are. If those aren’t players nobody would mind having in their system or on an mlb team I’m not sure who would be. And every single one was picked 4-10 in a draft... ie the group of players will be picking at. And it includes arguably the top prospect in the game in kelenic. Interesting that many of the higher ones are high school hitters! I didn’t mention Austin Martin from last year.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 15, 2021 17:11:36 GMT -5
Every draft has good/great players it’s a matter of the Red Sox identifying them drafting and signing them. The reason why baseball drafts have not traditionally as well followed as NFL and NBA drafts is that they are less accurate in choosing greatness. The top players in those other drafts almost always become immediate starters. Baseball draftees rarely even make the big leagues in their first year or two. That is another reason why baseball drafts are not afforded the same attention as those of the NBA and NFL.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2021 18:56:01 GMT -5
2013 was a terrible year to draft high. If they took Meadows instead of Ball it wouldn't have mattered. And fwiw, you're not usually looking at can't-miss studs at 4 anyway. I just figured Austin meadows would be a starter for us right now at pretty cheap money. As for can’t miss studs: Cj abrams, josh jung, Riley greene, jarred kelenic, nick madrigal, Keaton hiura, jo adell, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Lewis, Matt Manning, Aaron Nola, Michael conforto. I can keep going- but gosh if those aren’t can’t miss studs I don’t know what are. If those aren’t players nobody would mind having in their system or on an mlb team I’m not sure who would be. And every single one was picked 4-10 in a draft... ie the group of players will be picking at. And it includes arguably the top prospect in the game in kelenic. Interesting that many of the higher ones are high school hitters! I didn’t mention Austin Martin from last year. Exactly zero of those players were can't-miss studs. Just off the top of my head: There was real hope that Hiura would fall to Boston at #17. People didn't know if Madrigal's lack of power would get him exposed. Riley Greene had a pronounced hitch in his swing that had teams worried that he wouldn't catch up to velocity consistently. Conforto was ranked the #80 prospect in baseball the spring after he was drafted.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 15, 2021 19:16:48 GMT -5
It's important to be reasonable about what kind of career our No. 4 pick has to have to be a successful pick.
Trot Nixon was drafted no. 7 overall, held down a starting job for eight years and put up 21.2 WAR. Andrew Benintendi was also drafted no. 7. He started for three straight division championship teams and a WS winner. He's had a mysterious decline, but may have brought us some great assets in Franchy and the PTBNLs.
We'd love to get a big impact player in the first round. But if we get a better-than-average player who makes cost-controlled contributions for a few years, that's a win. Those players free up money to spend on veterans.
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Post by southernredsoxality on Apr 15, 2021 20:17:53 GMT -5
This actually ties into a question I keep wondering about: I don’t follow drafts closely, so I’m wondering how accurate these predraft assessments tend to be? I mean, a guy outperforms here, a guy crashes and burns there... bad becomes good, good becomes bad. Just wondering if people have a sense of how well people project. Anyway... I figure the draft doesn’t have to be good. Just the pick. Could definitely be hindsight bias, but I recall the loaded 2011 draft (Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Lindor, Baez just in the first 10 picks) being well thought of at the time as well. I don't recall any hype around 2005, and look how that turned out.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2021 20:18:14 GMT -5
I just figured Austin meadows would be a starter for us right now at pretty cheap money. As for can’t miss studs: Cj abrams, josh jung, Riley greene, jarred kelenic, nick madrigal, Keaton hiura, jo adell, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Lewis, Matt Manning, Aaron Nola, Michael conforto. I can keep going- but gosh if those aren’t can’t miss studs I don’t know what are. If those aren’t players nobody would mind having in their system or on an mlb team I’m not sure who would be. And every single one was picked 4-10 in a draft... ie the group of players will be picking at. And it includes arguably the top prospect in the game in kelenic. Interesting that many of the higher ones are high school hitters! I didn’t mention Austin Martin from last year. Exactly zero of those players were can't-miss studs. Just off the top of my head: There was real hope that Hiura would fall to Boston at #17. People didn't know if Madrigal's lack of power would get him exposed. Riley Greene had a pronounced hitch in his swing that had teams worried that he wouldn't catch up to velocity consistently. Conforto was ranked the #80 prospect in baseball the spring after he was drafted. Yeah I'm talking about a player at the time he was drafted. There's maybe 1 or 2 guys in a draft typically who are immediately top 25 or 50 prospects.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2021 20:18:53 GMT -5
Could definitely be hindsight bias, but I recall the loaded 2011 draft (Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Lindor, Baez just in the first 10 picks) being well thought of at the time as well. I don't recall any hype around 2005, and look how that turned out. This was the other draft I was thinking of and I disagree. But again, hindsight might be screwing up my recollection.
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Post by southernredsoxality on Apr 15, 2021 20:30:19 GMT -5
I don't recall any hype around 2005, and look how that turned out. This was the other draft I was thinking of and I disagree. But again, hindsight might be screwing up my recollection. From what I can recall, Upton was thought of as a generational talent and clear number 1. Then you had Gordon and Clement who were the two stud college bats presumably very close to the big leagues. After that, not much different from this draft honestly. Zimmerman shocked everybody by getting to the big leagues so quickly because there were real questions about his bat, and nobody was predicting Tulo to be an MVP caliber talent at the time.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 15, 2021 20:33:59 GMT -5
I am generally comfortable with the Red Sox ability to scout high school age hitters. Devers, Xander, Yorke, Casas, to me this area plays into the Sox’s strength and the strength of this draft is high school hitters. I think we’ll be good.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 15, 2021 20:37:03 GMT -5
I just figured Austin meadows would be a starter for us right now at pretty cheap money. As for can’t miss studs: Cj abrams, josh jung, Riley greene, jarred kelenic, nick madrigal, Keaton hiura, jo adell, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Lewis, Matt Manning, Aaron Nola, Michael conforto. I can keep going- but gosh if those aren’t can’t miss studs I don’t know what are. If those aren’t players nobody would mind having in their system or on an mlb team I’m not sure who would be. And every single one was picked 4-10 in a draft... ie the group of players will be picking at. And it includes arguably the top prospect in the game in kelenic. Interesting that many of the higher ones are high school hitters! I didn’t mention Austin Martin from last year. Exactly zero of those players were can't-miss studs. Just off the top of my head: There was real hope that Hiura would fall to Boston at #17. People didn't know if Madrigal's lack of power would get him exposed. Riley Greene had a pronounced hitch in his swing that had teams worried that he wouldn't catch up to velocity consistently. Conforto was ranked the #80 prospect in baseball the spring after he was drafted. If that’s your definition of can’t miss prospects then Boston has had very few VERY few can’t miss prospects ever in the game. A top 100 prospect is a can’t miss. Now you can’t trade said can’t miss for something of value or wait and he might not be a star but can’t miss is someone who has immediate value vi trade or development. I have zero clue what you feel can’t miss is but I know this. If those aren’t or weren’t then Boston has never had one
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 15, 2021 20:40:30 GMT -5
Exactly zero of those players were can't-miss studs. Just off the top of my head: There was real hope that Hiura would fall to Boston at #17. People didn't know if Madrigal's lack of power would get him exposed. Riley Greene had a pronounced hitch in his swing that had teams worried that he wouldn't catch up to velocity consistently. Conforto was ranked the #80 prospect in baseball the spring after he was drafted. Yeah I'm talking about a player at the time he was drafted. There's maybe 1 or 2 guys in a draft typically who are immediately top 25 or 50 prospects. I guess I see top 100 as can’t miss
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 15, 2021 21:04:18 GMT -5
If the sox don't love anyone at 4, do you think there is a chance they draft a signability guy with the intent to go over slot in rounds 2 and 3, and scoop up the #5 pick next year?
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 15, 2021 21:14:30 GMT -5
If the sox don't love anyone at 4, do you think there is a chance they draft a signability guy with the intent to go over slot in rounds 2 and 3, and scoop up the #5 pick next year? I may be wrong but I thought the rules were if you fail to sign a player in round 1 you lose that slot number in your cap. If that's the case you can't really go over slot in rounds 2 and 3.
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