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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 28, 2021 9:32:51 GMT -5
I don't understand why a high school player would take an underslot deal to go two spots higher (as opposed to, say, a full round). Totally agree. How much would the Orioles or D-Backs really save if he could go to the Royals instead?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2021 9:45:05 GMT -5
Tank for Rocker
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 28, 2021 9:50:11 GMT -5
I don't understand why a high school player would take an underslot deal to go two spots higher (as opposed to, say, a full round). Because the drop off in slots in the top is big enough to make a difference. Look at last year. If you are the agent for House, and you think he may go to the Royals at #7 ($5.4), but aren't sure. Baltimore offers you $5.6 million..... You avoid the risk of falling to #8 at $5.1. And Baltimore saves $500K
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2021 10:00:23 GMT -5
Yeah after VtSox's post I had the same thought. I'll take the prior post back. Hassell last year, for example, took under slot at no. 8 for a bonus between the slot values of picks 12 and 13. Hendrick took under slot at 12 for value between picks 14 and 15.
Probably depends on how strong your college commitment is too. (I was about to say a Vandy commit probably doesn't do that but Hassell was a Vandy commit, so, I know nothing is the moral here.)
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Post by ramireja on Apr 28, 2021 10:41:15 GMT -5
...and this is a bit cutthroat, but the Red Sox could offer anyone at #4 a bonus of $6.2M ($460K savings) which would force the player/agent to find an above slot offer elsewhere to make it worth turning down.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 28, 2021 11:16:14 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 28, 2021 12:07:10 GMT -5
Hmmmm: "Marcelo Mayer seems to be the least likely of the three to stick at shortstop, but also perhaps the most enticing of the three long term given his left-handed hitting tools and power projection. Corey Seager has been a popular comparison thrown around. Brady House, as we've long said here at PG, offers extremely high upside. A freak of an athlete with excellent physicality, House has some of the best raw power in the country and has a good chance to play short."
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 28, 2021 12:43:43 GMT -5
That is the first reference I've seen to anyone thinking Mayer is less likely to stick at shortstop than House.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 28, 2021 12:53:03 GMT -5
Agreed, I’ve heard people say that he may after a few years due to his size, have to move to third, maybe. But never heard anyone say he didn’t have a bunch of years a SS on lock down.
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Post by kingstephanos on Apr 28, 2021 13:03:02 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 28, 2021 13:12:34 GMT -5
It's a good feeling knowing that there's a very, very slim chance the Sox can do anything I would be unhappy with. As of right now I'd be comfortable with six guys - Mayer, Leiter, Lawlar, Davis, Rocker, House - in that order. I think the real intrigue with me is where they go with their next couple picks.
This isn't a "the Sox need pitchers, I want a pitcher" take, but looking at the rankings there are a lot of college pitchers hovering around the 40 range and I would love if the Sox took a higher-floor guy at that spot and swung for upside later on. One in particular that I like a lot is Jonathan Cannon from Georgia. I had actually floated him as a potential pick at 4 before the start of the season. 6'6", four pitch mix, not great results this year but the K/BB numbers are really good, and as a draft-eligible sophomore I honestly think a lot of it is not enough game experience. I really feel like he's an undervalued asset due to limited sample size and I would be all about the Sox targeting him at 40, but I think there will be other good college pitchers at that pick and it seems like a great spot to get a guy you can be confident will contribute to some degree, even if the upside isn't there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2021 16:49:01 GMT -5
It's worth noting that BA has House as another possibility for the Tigers at 3, which is consistent with PG's ranking and shows there's a clear top 5 rather than 4. The O's have been scouting House hard, and thus BA begins the Davis report by saying "The top five is a lot easier to project at this point than the picks thereafter, as the player pool quickly starts to get much wider." But BA devotes the first few sentences of the O's writeup to whether they could possibly pass on Leiter or Rocker if one is still available at 5, despite their history of favoring bats this high in the draft.
BA also joins the speculation that Lawler or Mayer may be a better fit for the Pirates' timeline than Leiter.
I conclude from this that we'll have a choice between two guys, and although Rocker vs. House seems the likeliest pair, no pair can be ruled out.
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cutz
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Post by cutz on Apr 28, 2021 20:08:01 GMT -5
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Post by lennsakata on Apr 28, 2021 22:36:57 GMT -5
...And apparently he struck out Arod to end the game
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2021 22:47:57 GMT -5
Yeah what the actual hell was that?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 29, 2021 5:59:39 GMT -5
Chase Petty sounds like what a Nascar fan would name his horse.
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 30, 2021 14:56:13 GMT -5
Baseball America made a point that I was unaware of, that Kumar has walked less batters than both Leiter and Hoglund. I checked it out and Rocker actually does have a better strikeout to walk ratio than Leiter. I said last week and continues to be something to monitor. The last 2 weeks Rocker has been the better pitcher hands down.....just something to monitor.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2021 15:14:09 GMT -5
I think a lot of us wrote Rocker off because of that rocky stretch he had but... I'd be pretty freaking pumped to get him at 4.
I'd contrast their current position with this crop of players with 2013. That year, I vaguely remember a clear top 3 of Appel, Bryant and Gray, followed by a second 3 of Stewart, Moran (who a lot of us were terrified of and did not want), and Frazier. (Folks please correct me if I'm wrong). To have the #7 pick was to hope someone fell, with most of us hoping for one of Stewart and Frazier. I think Meadows might've been considered in that tier too?
Anyway, here, they're in that first tier and will definitely get a chance at at least one of them. We'll see what changes in 2.5 months though...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2021 15:23:01 GMT -5
I think a lot of us wrote Rocker off because of that rocky stretch he had but... I'd be pretty freaking pumped to get him at 4. I can conceive of substantial research projects faster than I can do them .... maybe someone else will step in!
I'd go back 20 years and look at every college pitcher drafter in the top 5. I want to know their age when drafted (as of July 1 that year, as always), their age when they debuted, and their age when they recorded an ERA+ of 100 or better.
A lot of guys, I think, have gotten to MLB in a year or two but weren't necessarily good immediately. We would have the luxury of waiting until Rocker projected to be good, not just adequate -- exactly as we're doing with Houck.
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Post by kingstephanos on Apr 30, 2021 16:10:41 GMT -5
I think a lot of us wrote Rocker off because of that rocky stretch he had but... I'd be pretty freaking pumped to get him at 4. I'd contrast their current position with this crop of players with 2013. That year, I vaguely remember a clear top 3 of Appel, Bryant and Gray, followed by a second 3 of Stewart, Moran (who a lot of us were terrified of and did not want), and Frazier. (Folks please correct me if I'm wrong). To have the #7 pick was to hope someone fell, with most of us hoping for one of Stewart and Frazier. I think Meadows might've been considered in that tier too? Anyway, here, they're in that first tier and will definitely get a chance at at least one of them. We'll see what changes in 2.5 months though... Many of us were debating Frazier and Meadows at 7, if I remember correctly.
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Post by swingingbunt on Apr 30, 2021 17:21:41 GMT -5
This conversation is getting way too close to mentioning he who shall not be named. The 2013 draft never happened. It was a collective nightmare just like all of 2020.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 30, 2021 18:22:28 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 30, 2021 19:01:49 GMT -5
Another thing to watch...Lawlar senior season where he is older than everyone was not not flawless. Tons of strikeouts in the beginning and even when he righted that ship not a lot of power. If Mayer keeps hitting jacks at the pace he’s on and almost never striking out....I mean right now every mock is like yeah of course Leiter Lawlar 1 and 2.... but both seem vulnerable to me.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 30, 2021 19:28:18 GMT -5
Another thing to watch...Lawlar senior season where he is older than everyone was not not flawless. Tons of strikeouts in the beginning and even when he righted that ship not a lot of power. If Mayer keeps hitting jacks at the pace he’s on and almost never striking out....I mean right now every mock is like yeah of course Leiter Lawlar 1 and 2.... but both seem vulnerable to me. I could envision a case where Mayer goes first. The unspoken reality is money will come into play over the next month and half. I really could see Mayer 1, lawlar or pitcher 2, house 3, and us stuck with a pitcher at 4.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 30, 2021 21:34:45 GMT -5
I think a lot of us wrote Rocker off because of that rocky stretch he had but... I'd be pretty freaking pumped to get him at 4. I'd contrast their current position with this crop of players with 2013. That year, I vaguely remember a clear top 3 of Appel, Bryant and Gray, followed by a second 3 of Stewart, Moran (who a lot of us were terrified of and did not want), and Frazier. (Folks please correct me if I'm wrong). To have the #7 pick was to hope someone fell, with most of us hoping for one of Stewart and Frazier. I think Meadows might've been considered in that tier too? Anyway, here, they're in that first tier and will definitely get a chance at at least one of them. We'll see what changes in 2.5 months though... Yeah Meadows was part of that group at least in the media. Frazier vs Meadows was a popular debate.
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