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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 13, 2021 11:02:23 GMT -5
I do hope the other GMs choke and Davis falls to the Sox. Sans that, one of Rocker, Leiter or Frelick will be fine. Has anyone else seen McLain this high? Or this Harry Ford? I just do not trust anything Keith law writes and sure wouldn’t pay to read his stuff. To me it’s almost as bad as paying for Dan shaunessey. Law definitely tries to get cute with it sometimes for the sake of being different, but this is a drastic overreaction. He still generally knows his stuff and has good information. MLB has McClain 15th, Ford 18th. Fangraphs has McClain 3rd (although they clearly haven't updated in a while), Ford 23rd. Groupthink is a bad thing, so the fact that Law, who has clearly watched these guys far more than you have or ever will, has a slightly different opinion is a good thing as it challenges preconceived notions. If he had Henry Davis 78th on this board then yeah, okay, question away. But those two rankings aren't even that far from the consensus and comparing his to DS is just bad.
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Post by ramireja on May 13, 2021 11:22:18 GMT -5
Bumping and updating a table I made a while back comparing Henry Davis to college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years... Here is a table comparing college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years. I bolded the best three values (or 4 when there was a tie) for each metric. As it stands now, Davis is up there with the best of them in BA, making contact, and arm strength. Obviously, we don't expect SBs from the catcher position, but Davis should lead the pack here too by season's end and if nothing else, is an indicator of his athleticism. He doesn't quite have the power as the top guys although he hits the ball very hard with less loft than elite power hitters. His receiving needs work but scouts project improvement with time and some think he could end up average to plus here given his athleticism. Name | Team | Draft Year | Pick | PA | BA | ISO | BB% | K% | SB(CS) | MLB.com
Arm | MLB.com
Field | Henry Davis | Louisville | 2021 | N/A | 190 | .389 | .282 | 15.3% | 9.5% | 10(3) | 70 | 45 | Patrick Bailey | NC State | 2020 | 13 | 282 | .288 | .225 | 14.5% | 15.2% | 1(0) | 55 | 55 | Adley Rutschman | Oregon St. | 2019 | 1 | 266 | .411 | .340 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 0(2) | 60 | 60 | Shea Langeliers | Baylor | 2019 | 9 | 207 | .308 | .222 | 8.7% | 14.0% | 4(2) | 70 | 60 | Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | 2018 | 2 | 272 | .359 | .273 | 15.1% | 20.6% | 3(0) | 60 | 55 | Zach Collins | Miami | 2016 | 10 | 274 | .363 | .305 | 28.5% | 19.3% | 1(3) | 45 | 40 | Kyle Schwarber | Indiana | 2014 | 4 | 280 | .358 | .301 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 10(3) | 40 | 40 | Max Pentecost | Kennesaw St. | 2014 | 11 | 306 | .422 | .205 | 9.8% | 8.5% | 17(3) | 55 | 50 | Mike Zunino | Florida | 2012 | 3 | 292 | .322 | .347 | 10.6% | 16.1% | 9(1) | N/A | N/A |
Some relevant notes: - These are all stats from players' junior years with the exception of Bailey whose junior year was cut short by the pandemic. I used his sophomore year stats here, but worth noting his junior year stats look similar albeit with more power. - Rutschman's sophomore year was also a big one as he hit >.400 with more BB than K. His bat separates himself from his peers here. - Bart's freshman and sophomore years did not look good from an approach standpoint...his Ks greatly outweighed his BBs before walking a ton his junior year. - You all probably know that Schwarber has now become an OF/DH type and Collins who I believe still plays C/1B could move off the position as well. - Its also probably worth noting Pentecost's level of competition in the Atlantic Sun League isn't on par with the rest here. If anyone is interested in any other data I can add to the table...let me know as I'll probably update as we get closer to the draft.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2021 11:51:54 GMT -5
Bumping and updating a table I made a while back comparing Henry Davis to college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years... Here is a table comparing college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years. I bolded the best three values (or 4 when there was a tie) for each metric. As it stands now, Davis is up there with the best of them in BA, making contact, and arm strength. Obviously, we don't expect SBs from the catcher position, but Davis should lead the pack here too by season's end and if nothing else, is an indicator of his athleticism. He doesn't quite have the power as the top guys although he hits the ball very hard with less loft than elite power hitters. His receiving needs work but scouts project improvement with time and some think he could end up average to plus here given his athleticism. Name | Team | Draft Year | Pick | PA | BA | ISO | BB% | K% | SB(CS) | MLB.com
Arm | MLB.com
Field | Henry Davis | Louisville | 2021 | N/A | 190 | .389 | .282 | 15.3% | 9.5% | 10(3) | 70 | 45 | Patrick Bailey | NC State | 2020 | 13 | 282 | .288 | .225 | 14.5% | 15.2% | 1(0) | 55 | 55 | Adley Rutschman | Oregon St. | 2019 | 1 | 266 | .411 | .340 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 0(2) | 60 | 60 | Shea Langeliers | Baylor | 2019 | 9 | 207 | .308 | .222 | 8.7% | 14.0% | 4(2) | 70 | 60 | Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | 2018 | 2 | 272 | .359 | .273 | 15.1% | 20.6% | 3(0) | 60 | 55 | Zach Collins | Miami | 2016 | 10 | 274 | .363 | .305 | 28.5% | 19.3% | 1(3) | 45 | 40 | Kyle Schwarber | Indiana | 2014 | 4 | 280 | .358 | .301 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 10(3) | 40 | 40 | Max Pentecost | Kennesaw St. | 2014 | 11 | 306 | .422 | .205 | 9.8% | 8.5% | 17(3) | 55 | 50 | Mike Zunino | Florida | 2012 | 3 | 292 | .322 | .347 | 10.6% | 16.1% | 9(1) | N/A | N/A |
Some relevant notes: - These are all stats from players' junior years with the exception of Bailey whose junior year was cut short by the pandemic. I used his sophomore year stats here, but worth noting his junior year stats look similar albeit with more power. - Rutschman's sophomore year was also a big one as he hit >.400 with more BB than K. His bat separates himself from his peers here. - Bart's freshman and sophomore years did not look good from an approach standpoint...his Ks greatly outweighed his BBs before walking a ton his junior year. - You all probably know that Schwarber has now become an OF/DH type and Collins who I believe still plays C/1B could move off the position as well. - Its also probably worth noting Pentecost's level of competition in the Atlantic Sun League isn't on par with the rest here. If anyone is interested in any other data I can add to the table...let me know as I'll probably update as we get closer to the draft. An age at time of draft comparison might be interesting, if it turns out to be a significant difference between these guys. At a glance, Davis would be 3 months older than Bart and 5 months older than Rutschman. That might be more meaningful for high schoolers than college players though...
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Post by ramireja on May 13, 2021 11:56:33 GMT -5
Yeah and age differences may be counteracted by the fact that Davis hardly had a sophomore campaign or a summer ball league (e.g. Cape Cod) to develop?
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2021 12:06:51 GMT -5
Good point!
In general I've wondered in what sense the loss of a 2020 season means lost development. Will young players be able to do "catch-up" development, or will it just be a permanent handicap for this whole cohort of young guys?
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 12:33:46 GMT -5
Has anyone else seen McLain this high? Or this Harry Ford? I just do not trust anything Keith law writes and sure wouldn’t pay to read his stuff. To me it’s almost as bad as paying for Dan shaunessey. Law definitely tries to get cute with it sometimes for the sake of being different, but this is a drastic overreaction. He still generally knows his stuff and has good information. MLB has McClain 15th, Ford 18th. Fangraphs has McClain 3rd (although they clearly haven't updated in a while), Ford 23rd. Groupthink is a bad thing, so the fact that Law, who has clearly watched these guys far more than you have or ever will, has a slightly different opinion is a good thing as it challenges preconceived notions. If he had Henry Davis 78th on this board then yeah, okay, question away. But those two rankings aren't even that far from the consensus and comparing his to DS is just bad. Agree to disagree. I don’t trust his “knowledge” and haven’t over the years. It definitely has nothing to do with his rankings. But he’s paid and makes a living at this. So he connects with someone. Good for them. Ild rather trust those at mlb, fangraphs, or kiley ( espn).
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 13, 2021 12:43:43 GMT -5
You can agree to disagree...just leave it at that. No need to disparage him. You can take that somewhere else.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 13:17:50 GMT -5
You can agree to disagree...just leave it at that. No need to disparage him. You can take that somewhere else. Don’t think I disparaged him. Actually said he gets paid to do his job so he connects with people obviously. I didn’t say he has little worth at all! Not even close. Maybe to me but I acknowledged he has worth and gets paid for this
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 13, 2021 16:04:32 GMT -5
FWIW:
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Post by ramireja on May 13, 2021 16:21:19 GMT -5
Yeah as much as I've wanted him as our pick...the reality is that he's the top college bat in the draft and the top guy from that demographic almost never makes it to #4.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 16:30:36 GMT -5
Yeah as much as I've wanted him as our pick...the reality is that he's the top college bat in the draft and the top guy from that demographic almost never makes it to #4. Who drops then??
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 13, 2021 16:42:09 GMT -5
This series was so much more interesting 2 weeks ago...
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Post by manfred on May 13, 2021 16:45:03 GMT -5
Man, I really hope he’s ok.
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Post by Canseco on May 13, 2021 16:55:43 GMT -5
Man, I really hope he’s ok. Me too, but if this little episode means we have the option to take him at #4, then it’s rather welcome.
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Post by tyler3 on May 13, 2021 16:55:58 GMT -5
Wow…man not Leiter…here’s hoping. I hope he comes back strong but even if he does..looking like Lawlar, Davis, Mayer go 1-3 in some order or at least strengthens the possibility…..I do wonder between Leiter, Rocker, House, Jobe, and Watson the Red Sox like the most. They are all such different profiles.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2021 17:01:19 GMT -5
Gotta say if the choice is between Leiter or Rocker at 4 give me Rocker. This Leiter stuff scares me off too much to have him above Rocker at this point. There's still 2 months so here's hoping Leiter gets healthy and comes back strong though.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 13, 2021 17:08:45 GMT -5
From Law's Chat earlier today:
Also, I think this is important: The FO has to dominate the 2nd and later rounds...The 1st round gets all the attention but it's in the later rounds where you really separate from the rest of the pack.
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Post by stevedillard on May 13, 2021 19:19:49 GMT -5
Holy crap. Reading the Gammons thing, I saw Davis is from my hometown, and then looked at Louisville site and saw he stayed in the public school and was two years ahead of my twins in high school. I just asked my daughter and she said, "Henry, yeah, he was on the baseball team." Our sports programs are OK, so this is a mind blower.
Edit: and that daughter's roommate in college is from Wake Forest HS, home of the SS Watson.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 13, 2021 20:06:03 GMT -5
Every time I get excited about someone at 4 he either underperforms (who needs him) or is 100% guaranteed to be gone (we never had a chance). Hard way to live life. Hope whomever we get works out!
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 13, 2021 20:30:11 GMT -5
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Post by tyler3 on May 13, 2021 20:41:38 GMT -5
Oh snap!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2021 21:06:29 GMT -5
This is going to be a really fun draft to follow over the next month with one of Rocker or Leiter potentially on the board.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 14, 2021 11:29:43 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 14, 2021 13:01:40 GMT -5
After an hour, as they are working on raking players later in the first round, they start with: 1) Leiter 2) Mayer 3) Davis 4) Rocker 5) Lawler
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Post by Guidas on May 14, 2021 14:28:45 GMT -5
After an hour, as they are working on raking players later in the first round, they start with: 1) Leiter 2) Mayer 3) Davis 4) Rocker 5) Lawler Leiter missing another start without explanation is...troubling.
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